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Analysis

Central Banks are Feeling Threatened by Bitcoin: Optimistic Sign For Long-Term Price Growth

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A growing number of governments, financial regulators, and central banks are beginning to feel threatened by the increasing adoption of bitcoin and the decentralized financial network it provides.

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Bitcoin is decentralized in nature as it operates on a peer-to-peer protocol and a transparent ledger called the blockchain. Every transaction processed by the Bitcoin network can be seen on the blockchain network through platforms like blockchain explorers. The Bitcoin network also relies on a unique monetary policy in which the maximum supply of bitcoin is fixed at 21 million.

The price of bitcoin is solely dependent on the demand from the global bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets. If the demand toward bitcoin from casual investors, institutional and retail traders increases, since the supply of bitcoin is fixed, the price of bitcoin surges. The independence and decentralization of bitcoin allows the network to operate as its own economy without the influence of global markets volatility and economic uncertainty.

As the Bank of Finland, the central bank of the nation, explained in its research discussion paper entitled “Monopoly without a monopolist: an economic analysis of the bitcoin payment system,” bitcoin is not and cannot be regulated. The Bank of Finland further encouraged economists to study the marvelous structure of bitcoin. The paper read:

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“Bitcoin is not regulated. It cannot be regulated. There is no need to regulate it because as a system it is committed to the protocol as is and the transaction fees it charges the users are determined by the users independently of the miners’ efforts. Bitcoin’s design as an economic system is revolutionary and therefore would merit an economist’s attention and scrutiny even if it had not been functional. Its apparent functionality and usefulness should further encourage economists to study this marvelous structure.”

While many central banks including the Bank of Finland, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of Korea are taking the right approach in regulating trading activities and businesses around bitcoin efficiently with practical policies, several central banks in regions such as China and Russia are still against bitcoin because it remains as a threat against the global banking industry and existing financial networks.

For the most part, the fear from central banks and major financial institutions is understandable; the presence of bitcoin renders the necessity of banks useless because it provides an alternative financial system which users can facilitate payments within a peer-to-peer manner.

Earlier this week, the president of OPORA Russia public association, Alexander Kalinin, stated:

“Elvira Nabiullina said that the central bank is against, because this is actually a loss of control over the money flows from abroad.”

Governments and financial regulators are limited in what they are capable of regulating in bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets. Evidently, the protocols themselves such as the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchain networks cannot be regulated or censored. But, trading activities and businesses around the cryptocurrencies can be regulated and so far, the Central Bank of Russia and the People’s Bank of China have created a restricted and challenging environment for businesses and investors.

However, for long-term growth, bitcoin is at a perfect position. Several central banks are encouraging economists and bankers to study the structure of bitcoin and its capability of offering a decentralized financial system while others such as Russia and China remain threatened by the cryptocurrency.

It is an optimistic indicator for long-term growth that central banks and major financial institutions fear the exponential growth of bitcoin because that demonstrates the potential of bitcoin to surpass and overtake the world’s largest financial systems including fiat money, reserve currencies, and gold.

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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Chris G

    September 24, 2017 at 4:34 pm

    Agreed

  2. ivanb

    September 24, 2017 at 5:24 pm

    winter is coming

  3. mvppvm_07

    September 25, 2017 at 3:27 pm

    Regardless of the decentralization, anonymity and populist “management” of bitcoin, from mining to hodling, have many analysts offered their reasoned views on ways central banks / governments can/might/will either dilute or destroy the threat of bitcoin based crypto?

    In what ways do they think they can kill this non-regulated economic model?

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Litecoin Continues Surge as Bitcoin Tests Highs

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With the crypto world being focused on the historical futures launch, the major coins all enjoyed buying following a hectic weekend, and a volatile week as a whole. BTC itself got another boost from the widespread publicity and the volatile correction of the recent days ended, with the most valuable coin bouncing back towards its all-time high.

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While the long-term picture remains severely overbought, the short-term picture is not stretched and further gains are possible even amid the elevated correction risk. That said, investors should wait for a more favorable entry point to ad dot their holdings, while traders should control position sizes in the light of the long-term setup. Major support levels are now near $13,000, $11,300, and $10,000, with stronger levels still at $8200 and $7700.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The major altcoins are all up today, but only Monero and Litecoin are still within short-term uptrends, and the segment as a whole is still dangerously overextended, and a deeper correction is very likely in the coming weeks. LTC continued its recent break-out, getting close to the $200 level, and joining the extremely overbought group regarding the long-term momentum, and triggering a long-term sell signal in our trend model. Key support levels are found $100 at $75 and $64, with a weaker primary level at $125.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Long-Term Analysis of the Silver Market

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Silver

The silver market has once again caught investors’ interest as the price is nearing areas not seen since late 2008.

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2017 started at a low point for silver, and it seems it will end the year that way as well, meaning investors who bought at the beginning of the year haven’t suffered nor gained much.

This doesn’t mean, however, that the price hasn’t moved during the year. After the low start of the year, silver quickly tacked on about 18% to a top of $17.50 per ounce.

In terms of fundamentals in the silver market, things look a bit complicated for 2018. There are multiple forces pulling in different directions for the price of silver going forward:

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Positives

  • A sharp stock market correction can be expected to occur some time in 2018. Most likely, this will happen sooner rather than later. Stock market crashes always trigger a flight to safety, meaning gold, silver, and quite possibly bitcoin, can benefit.
  • We are seeing signs that inflation may be starting to rise again, although this is not confirmed yet. Rising inflation is always good for precious metals.
  • If the US federal budget deficit widens as a result of the new tax reform, the US dollar may suffer as a consequence. Goldman Sachs put out a note to investors in November 2017 saying that the US debt is “on track” to reach an “unsustainable” level in coming years. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has also said about the US debt that it is “the type of thing that should keep people awake at night.” Rising debt levels creates uncertainty about the economy, which is generally good for gold and silver.

Negatives

  • Central banks around the world seem committed to raise interest rates in 2018. Rising interest rates are bad for precious metals because it would make it more attractive to put money in the bank.
  • The cryptocurrency bull market is on track to continue, diverting attention and capital away from precious metals as a traditional store of value. However, this one is uncertain, as it may also be considered a positive in the way that the rise of cryptocurrencies brings the inflationary and unsustainable nature of fiat currencies into focus.
  • The US dollar may have hit a bottom in 2017 and trade higher compared to other major fiat currencies going into 2018. A stronger dollar is always bad for precious metals, which are priced in dollars.

Silver chart

When looking at the chart, we can see that silver is back down to were it started the year, which coincides with a major support area where it has turned several times in the past few years.

From a technical perspective, silver has been trading in a triangle pattern on the longer-term weekly chart, with the price now trading very near the lower end of the triangle, adding confluence to our bias that silver will trade up from here.

Silver failed to live up to our prediction from early 2017, and is now even trading well below the level from that time.

A low price by any measure combined with two major technical support levels adds confidence to our trade and makes silver a low risk and potentially high reward trade for 2018.

Depending on your own strategy and investment style, you may want to wait for the price to break out from the current triangle pattern it has been trading in for the past year and a half. You would then give up some of the potential return for an even safer trade. After that, major resistance is found around $17.50 and $18, with lots of upside potential if we can finally break through those levels.

Featured image from Pixabay.

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Look Out Below?

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After last week’s observation that a major top is in or near in the segment, the Bitcoin surge continued for almost a week, with Thursday’s wild session taking the coin as high as $19,000 (the article uses Bitstamp prices) on some exchanges. While the currency already pulled back by more than 20% the long-term picture is still extremely overbought and a much deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks.

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BTC spiked below $13,000 today, violating the primary weak support at $13,300, with further levels now at $11,300, $10,000 and $9000, but stronger support only found at $8200 and $7700. Next week’s futures launch could cause another jump in trading activity, and volatility is expected to remain very high amid the likely correction.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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While not all altcoins participated in the, supposedly, last part of the rally, IOTA, Monero, and towards the end of the week Litecoin, also stretched above all conventional targets with IOTA also turning exponential after a deal with Microsoft. The coin exploded by more than 350% before entering an initial sharp correction, breaking the steepest short-term uptrend. Strong support is only found at $3 and $1.5, but potential Fibonacci support is at $2.35.

IOT/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Let’s see how the long-term charts of the other altcoins look after the crazy week.

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