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Bitcoin Update: Bears are Exhausted

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In October 2018, Bitcoin recorded a new monthly low close price for the year of $6,304.18 on Coinbase. For many traders, this was a cause of concern. The new low may indicate that bears are still in control of the market. This revitalized and renewed calls for a break of $6,000 support. On social media, countless posts show how the market will plummet to $4,000.

While these people promoting fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), we looked at the charts in search for more evidence to support the FUD. What we found was the exact opposite. In this article, we show why bears are exhausted.

The Inverted Weekly Chart

Not many retail investors know this, but you can invert charts on Tradingview to get a fresh perspective. All you have to do is to type “1-ticker”. For Bitcoin, that’s “1-BTCUSD”.

Looking at the inverted weekly chart, we had a very good view of the bear perspective. What we saw was a market that sharply bounced after a steep decline. The market tried to keep the rally going, but it appears to run out of steam. In the process, it created a rising wedge which is a reversal structure.

Rising wedge breakout in inverted BTC chart

Just recently, the market broke down of the rising wedge. It attempted to reclaim the support but it was rejected. The price action tells us that bulls have flipped the support into resistance. We’ll know for sure when the weekly candle closes. Nevertheless, the inverted Bitcoin chart is showing that bears are losing momentum.

BTCUSD Shorts

Another chart that is not popular among retail investors is the BTC Shorts (BTCUSDSHORTS). This chart is a crude indicator of bearish sentiment in the market. It reflects the total number of margined short positions measured in Bitcoin. For example, the BTC Shorts hit its 2018 high of 40,719.1018 on April 12, 2018.

Those traders who leveraged their short positions did so because they thought the market was extremely bearish. The BTC short market reached around 40,000 levels on August 22, September 07, and September 19. In all of these occasions, short sellers got wrecked. Bitcoin held on the support area of $5,800 – $6,000. More importantly, Bitcoin rallied every single time after holding on to the support. This forced many short sellers to close their positions at a loss.

 

BTC price action after record highs on short positions

After numerous attempts to break Bitcoin, BTC shorts collapsed. It recently breached multiple support levels that kept its uptrend alive. More importantly, it reversed its trend after breaking out from a triple top pattern.

BTCUSDSHORTS breakdown

This is an indication that bears are exhausted. It appears that they have given up hope on a break below $6,000 support. This narrative supports our first point that bears tried to keep the downtrend alive but now, they are running out of steam.

The Daily Chart

On the 10th birthday of Bitcoin (October 31, 2018), bears had all the opportunity to exert their dominance. All they had to do was keep the market under $6,200. Doing so would have taken BTC/USD back inside the triangle and invalidated the heavy volume breakout on October 15. Unfortunately, bears showed very little fight. Sensing weakness, bulls took advantage of the situation.

As a result, bulls flipped the triangle resistance into support. Then, Bitcoin bounced.

Daily chart of BTCUSD

Interestingly, volume on that day was significantly lower than the daily average. This tells us that the bounce was not borne out of bullish aggression. On the contrary, it was the consequence of almost non-existent bearish resistance. This plays well with our first two points that bears are almost ready to drop.

Bottom Line

The weekly inverted BTCUSDSHORTS and BTC/USD daily charts reveal that bears are limping. Once bulls recognize this, we can expect Bitcoin to finally end its 2018 bear market.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.8 stars on average, based on 311 rated postsKiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 5+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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1 Comment

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  1. fractalogic

    November 2, 2018 at 7:50 pm

    It is too bad that prices in this market make absolutely no sense. Somewhere between demand for
    product that is being used to compete in the economy and the most wild eyed optimism of what that demand will be 10 years from now is where the price lies 80% of the time. FUD on its own would drive most new ideas out of the market. What stops FUD is HODL and practical use. Most of the people who buy Crypto don’t mortgage their future to do so, so when prices drop they follow the rule of buy low sell high and HODL. But what drives prices up is demand created by real world use and optimism that said real world demand is rapidly rising. So when I look at the success rate of people who time the market, and say hi as I walk into Walmart, and all of the charts they make, I say, yep, it would be nice to know the future, but then everyone would know it. Crypto is here, useful, utilized and promises to be more so. However, until E-money is actually more useful and utilized, it is fun to play with.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Settle Down After Weekend Pump & Dump

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While crypto bulls had something to cheer about early on during the weekend following a rally attempt in the majors, the move once again failed to improve the technical setup in the segment, and the top coins quickly gave back their gains. Now, most of the coins are trading near the bottom of their short-term ranges and technicals continue to point to the continuation of the bear market.

Correlations are still very high, there is no sign of a developing bullish leadership, and with none of the key coins showing bullish momentum, bulls are facing strong headwinds. While trading volumes and volatility remain relatively low thanks to the range-trading environment a move below primary support could trigger larger moves in the majors soon.

The negative long-term trends are still in no danger, and although there is still a slight chance of a failed break-down pattern to develop in the market, odds favor a bearish short-term outcome as well. With that in mind, traders and investors still shouldn’t enter positions here, with our trend model being on sell signals on both time-frames in the case of the majority of the coins.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although Bitcoin is still relatively stable compared to its most important peers, it gave back all of its weekend gains and fell back below the key $3600 support/resistance level yesterday. Now, BTC is threatening with a break-down below the prior sing low, and given the recent weakness, our trned model is now on a short-term sell signal.

While bulls could still be saved by a move above $3850, the failed rally attempts warn of selling pressure, and a bearish continuation is more likely here. Further strong resistance is ahead between $4000 and $4050, with support zones still found near $3250 and $3000, and traders should still not enter positions.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum shoed relative weakness during the rally attempt this weekend, and it is now very close to a break below the key swing low, which would likely lead to a move towards the key support zone between $95 and $100. The coin remains on sell single son both time-frames, and with a test of the bear market low near the $80 price level seems likely in the coming weeks.

Strong resistance is ahead just above the current price level and near $130, with further zones at $145, $160, and near $180 while a weak short-term support is found near $112, and the coin’s weakness is a negative sign for the whole segment.

Altcoins Still Weak Despite Rally Attempt

STR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While none of the major altcoins broke the key short-term support levels, the overall picture remains bearish and we haven’t seen signs of resilience that would indicate a short-term bottom and the resumption of the counter-trend move.

Stellar, which has been among the bearish leaders towards the end of 2018, is once again showing relative weakness while following the trends in the broader market, should the coin violate the $0.10 level, a quick to new bear market lows would be likely, with the $0.09 level being the only lone of defense for bulls.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple still seems very fragile from a technical standpoint, and a move below $0.30 looks inevitable in the coming weeks, with a likely test of the bear market low near $0.28. The $32 support/resistance level remains in focus, but given the weak rally attempts and the bearish long-term setup, we don’t expect the coin to get back to the $0.3550 level in the coming period.

Our trend model is still on sell signals on both time-frames, with further strong support found near the $0.26 level, with resistance ahead near $0.3750, and in the key long-term zone between $0.42 and $0.46.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is back near the key $30-$30.50 support zone after the volatile weekend, and it also looks ready to dip below that zone, even as the short-term trading range is still intact. The steep long-term downtrend is intact despite the recent counter-trend move, and traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions here, with the short-term setup also being bearish. Strong resistance is ahead near $34.50, $38, and $44 with further support found near $26 and $23.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 444 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

GBP/USD Price Prediction: Bulls Reclaim 1.2900, Eyes Locked on Another Retest of 1.3000

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  • GBP/USD bulls pick up momentum to the upside, following generally positive tone to Theresa May’s Plan B statement.
  • Next upside targets for the bulls should they firmly breakdown 1.2900 again, will be the psychological 1.3000 mark.

GBP/USD throughout the session on Monday remained very much elevated. This came as market participants were somewhat maintaining an optimistic view. All of which heading into the British Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech to the House of Commons, on her Brexit plan b. Of course, this had to be drafted again, given her humiliating defeat at the vote last week, on the initial EU withdrawal plan.

Theresa May Plan B

In terms of her details this time round, she will be going back to Brussels, to seek some amendments to her initial agreement. This needs to be done in order to get a plan through another vote in the commons. Looking at some of the GBP bullish takeaways from this statement; she guaranteed rights for EU citizens at several angles, scraping the application fee EU nationals registering in Britain, discussing the backstop with the DUP this week.

To conclude, PM May appears keen in her language to ensure of a soft-Brexit, rather than one that is hard. All of which supported GBP in its push to session highs, at the time, briefly moving back above 1.2900. The price had given up this area on 18th January, when the bears were reversing the run observed on 17th, where GBP/USD touched to big psychological 1.3000 mark again.

Technical Review – GBP/USD

GBP/USD 60-minute chart. Near-term resistance eyed at 1.2900, with bulls locked in on a retest of 1.3000.

GBP/USD at the time of writing continues to trade around the 1.2900 territory. This price did see a brief period cooling, on touted profit-taking post the statement. Near-term resistance can be seen within this price region, but if convincingly broken down again, then there is decent upside potential. Aside from the supply observed here, there isn’t much in the way of the 1.3000 price region.

Given the renewed optimism around Brexit now, this has assisted in maintaining momentum to the upside for GBP. In terms of support to the downside, a strong area of demand should be noted at 1.2850-25 price region. As can be seen via the 60-minute chart view, this has supported the price since 15th January.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 111 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

3 Things You Need to Know About the Market Today

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1, Chinese GDP Growth Slows to Multi-Decade Low

Shanghai Composite, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

When even the strongly PR-optimized Chinese economic releases are showing severe weakness, it’s not at all surprising that the local stock market is in a deep bear market, and even the explosive oversold rally on Wall Street combined with the trade optimism of last week is not enough to meaningfully change the technical setup.

While economic growth slowed to an almost 30-year low on a yearly basis, retail sales and industrial production beat the consensus estimates by a hair, but that wasn’t enough to cause a material rally in equities, with the global sentiment leaning slightly bearish. This week’s most important question will be how risk assets will hold on to their recent gains, with a special attention on China and Europe, which continue to lag behind the US from a technical perspective.

The Shanghai Composite is more than 30% below its bull market highs, while the main European benchmarks are also around 20% below their respective highs, and that’s following one of the strongest short squeezes in history on Wall Street, mind you. The next few days could be crucial for markets, and we now advise caution even for short-term bulls.

2, Stocks Retreat after Friday Ramp with Wall Street Closed

German DAX 30 Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Looking at Europe, the major indices failed to extend their gains from Friday, while US stock futures are also modestly lower after the European close. With the US markets being closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day, trading volumes and activity has been predictably low, and things will likely get heated tomorrow, as the earnings season will also continue.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and IBM (IBM0 will report earnings tomorrow, and all eyes will be on their overseas numbers and guidance amid the global economic slowdown. We had some negative reports regarding the US-Chinese trade talks, concerning the sensitive issue of Intellectual Property, and we still think that even though an agreement is likely in the coming months, implementation and enforcement will be borderline impossible.

3, Oil Tests December High

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While risk assets, in general, had a slightly bearish half-session crude oil kept on pushing higher following Friday’s move to new correction highs, with the WTI contract entering the resistance zone that capped the December consolidation. The crucial commodity, which has been slightly lagging US stocks from a technical perspective is still squeezing late shorts, but we expect a short-term top very soon, possibly after a stop hunting rally above the $55 per barrel level.

What’s sure, is that we wouldn’t be buyers at these levels, even in light of the OPEC production cut, since over-supply remains a major issue, and the increase in US output continues. That said, the short-term uptrend is intact and the topping process could take a while, but we will keep a close eye on the day-to-day price action following the 25% rally off the December lows.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 444 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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