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Analysis: Bitcoin Price Crashes Below $3400, Ethereum Plunges to $225

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The sky has fallen today in the cryptocurrency segment, as China took huge steps towards closing its domestic Bitcoin exchanges, in line with the recently surfaced rumors. The whole sector took a major beating on the confirmation, with Bitcoin and Ethereum leading the way lower. ETH, which is slightly more exposed to the Chinese crackdown on ICOs and existing coins, was slammed below the crucial $235 support, and our primary target for the correction, and the bleeding still hasn’t stopped.

The coin is approaching oversold territory after the 40% decline, so long-term investors should already be looking for buying opportunities, as today’s panicky conditions could soon lead to a durable bottom. That said, as volatility is expected to remain high, and more short-term decline is definitely in the cards.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The other majors are also sharply lower today, with only IOTA, Monero, and Ripple showing signs of relative strength. Litecoin and Ethereum Classic are among the weakest large coins, with losses of almost 20%, while the rest of the market is down by an average of 10%. With no more of top 10 currencies being overbought, the correction could be in its latter stages, and a short-term trend change could be the beginning of a tradable rally. Let’s see how the charts look after the crash.

Bitcoin

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

After reaching the $3800 level earlier this week, the largest coin slumped below the next major support level at $3500 during today’s bloodbath, and also touched the 50% Fibonacci retracement in the process. BTC is clearly oversold regarding the short-term picture and the long-term setup is also back to neutral. Below $3500 the $3150 level serves as primary support, with the prior all-time also near that level at $3000.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin hit our final target for the correction near $51 today, and in order to keep the rising trend intact, it shouldn’t stay below $50 durably. The coin cleared the long-term overbought readings with the plunge, and the current levels could already be attractive from an investment standpoint. That said, short-term traders should wait until a trend change with opening new positions. Support is now found at $47, while resistance is ahead at $56, and $64.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash reached the $265 support that we have been monitoring as a target for the move, and the coin is getting close to clearing the long-term overbought condition. A dip to the prior high near $220 is still possible as the broad correction concludes, but the currency is getting close to, at least, a short-term bottom, with resistance ahead near $300.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP is trading just above the long-term base formation around the $15 level, and the coin should remain above $16 to maintain the break-out of the pattern. Ripple has been holding up relatively well during the current move, and we still expect the coin to outperform the segment in the next leg higher. Support is now found at $0.16, while resistance is ahead at $0.18, around the $0.20 level, and near $0.22.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic plunged below key support near $13.50 today, and should the coin stay below that level, the long-term trend could turn negative. The current levels still look attractive for long-term investors, but more volatility is likely and a quick recovery would be needed to avoid a technical sell signal.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero remains the strongest major regarding the short-term picture, holding up well amid the immense selling pressure. The coin dipped below the $100 level as we expected, but it is still well clear of the next major support at $80.With the long-term momentum nearing neutral territory, the correction might soon be over in XMR. Resistance is still ahead at $125, and near the all-time high above $150, while further support is found at $68.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO crashed below the $16.50 support after the confirmation of the Chinese ban, and the coin remains under severe selling pressure, still being in the epicenter of the decline.  Volatility is expected to remain elevated, and despite the attractive price levels more short-term losses are possible, so traders should with opening new positions. Crucial resistance levels are ahead at $22, $25, and $30, while support is a found at $13, and $11.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA is till testing the strong support zone between the $0.45 and $0.48 levels, showing short-term relative strength in the face of the crashing prices. The declining trend remains dominant in the coin, but the oversold long-term momentum readings and the technical strength are encouraging from an investment standpoint, and investors could already add to their positions on the short –term dips. Strong resistance is ahead near $0.65, with support at $0.35.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 297 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. fernip0w

    September 14, 2017 at 9:15 pm

    “XRP is trading just above the long-term base formation around the $15 level, and the coin should remain above $16 to maintain the break-out of the pattern.”

    I think you will give some XRP holders heart attacks.

  2. Chris G

    September 14, 2017 at 9:38 pm

    I set a long-term LTC position, and was fingering the trigger as ETH spiked down into the 220s – got distracted by lab-work so guess I will wait to see what happens with ETH.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Divergence Deepens as Altcoins Fall, Bitcoin Flat

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The unusual discrepancy between BTC and the rest of the cryptocurrency market continued today, with the top 10 coins all losing ground with the exception of Bitcoin itself. Tuesday’s surge, which carried the segment to $300 billion in total market cap quickly fizzled out, at least as far as the major altcoins are concerned, but the largest digital currency is still holding on above the strong $7000 and $7350 support/resistance levels.

Altcoins are on short-term sell signals according to our trend model, but Bitcoin is still on a buy signal as the declining trend was broken by the break-out that remains intact, despite the segment-wide weakness.

Given the mixed, but one-sided setup, and the lack of bullish follow-through, odds still favor a bearish outcome, and traders should remain cautious with new positions here, even in BTC, the positive outlier. A broad trend change would require a meaningful leadership, and until that develops, a test of t eh June lows remains likely, with the possibility of new lows in the coming week as well.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Bitcoin failed to durably stay above the $7500 level, bulls successfully defended the support zone near $7350, despite the overbought short-term momentum readings. The coin is well above the line-in-the-sand $7000 level and the long-term support near $5850 that was in danger just one week ago.

Although the altcoin weakness makes BTC’s rally suspicious, the short-term bullish pattern is intact, as is the buy signal in our trend model. Further support is found at $6750, and $6500, while primary resistance is still ahead at $7650.

Selling Pressure Apparent in Altcoins

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

All intraday rally attempts have been sold so far in most of the major altcoins, and Ethereum is just holding up above primary support at $450 despite the rally in the beginning of the week. The coin is on a short-term sell signal, and a test of the June lows is likely after the failed break-out. Strong resistance is ahead at $500 and between $555 and $575, while support is found at $420, $400, $380, and $360.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Monero has been holding up relatively well in the last couple of days after getting stuck below the $150 level during the Tuesday surge, but the coin is still among the structurally weak majors, being on a long-term sell signal. As the other bearish leaders, NEO, LTC, and Dash are also trading below key long-term levels, we expect the coin to fall back below the $125 support and likely test the June lows in the coming weeks.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The third largest coin Ripple is already testing the $0.45 level after drifting lower ever since the Tuesday rally, and as its relative weakness is still clear, a break below that level seems to be imminent. Below that, the crucial long-term support zone near $0.42 could stop the decline of XRP again, but a move under that could trigger a long-term sell signal.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 297 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Forex Update: Boring Means Long-Term Sustainability for EUR/INR

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Billionaire investor George Soros once said, “If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.” As an experienced investor, I couldn’t agree more. There’s a lot of waiting and sitting involved but that’s how money is made in investing. The Euro/Indian Rupee (EUR/INR) pair seems to be the perfect embodiment of this quote.

Looking as far back as 1999, it appears that EUR/INR has been in an unstoppable bull run since the second half of 2002. If you invested in the pair a decade and a half ago, you would have more than doubled your money. Chances are you didn’t, but don’t fret because you can always invest today. EUR/INR looks as strong today as it did back then.

In this article, we show how EUR/INR is looking strong on all counts despite being boring.

Healthy Ascending Channel on the Daily Chart  

EUR/INR dropped to as low as 67.9819 on April 10, 2017 and it was nothing but blue skies since. It is trading within an ascending channel as it generates higher highs and higher lows in a sustainable manner. The ascending channel looks healthy, too, as the trading range is not significantly contracting or expanding.


Daily chart of EUR/INR

If you look at the technical indicators, everything is fairly clear. EUR/INR rallies when it flashes oversold readings. On the other hand, it corrects when it is overbought. You won’t find excitement here and that’s good news for long term investors.

Concluded Corrective Wave on the Weekly

EUR/INR started showing signs of weakness in September 2013 when it posted a shooting star weekly candle. The ensuing pullback drove the pair down to the 65 levels in March 2015 (A-wave). The market has not visited that price area since. It managed to generate a bullish higher low setup at 68 (C-wave). This was a clear signal to investors that the correction was over.

Weekly chart of EUR/INR

With a higher low in place, EUR/INR took out resistance of 76. The new support level was tested and retested before the pair mounted a strong rally. On top of that, we can see a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly RSI, hinting that the uptrend is in a good shape.

Even in the weekly chart, the market is not pulling any surprises. There are no false breaks and no shakedowns. You don’t have to look close to see where the market is headed. EUR/INR is boring and that’s why it is strong.

Major Support Line on the Monthly Intact

Conventional wisdom says to buy low and sell high. The problem with this is that you don’t really know when is the market low. The market can go down as there’s always the possibility that a key support can break. That’s just not the case for EUR/INR.

Monthly chart of EUR/INR

Buying low is fairly simple in this case. All investors have to do is to wait for the price to hit the long-term support. Investors can be confident in doing so because the trend line has been intact for over 15 years. More importantly, it bounces every time it hit the support. It’s not really exciting but it works.

Bottom Line

A famous billionaire trader once said that good investing is boring, and I agree. Look at the charts of EUR/INR and you’ll see why boring investing is good.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.6 stars on average, based on 201 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Analysis

Pre-Market: China Tries to Support Markets as Global Stocks Slide

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Yesterday’s risk-off shift continued today in early trading with nervous and choppy trading in Asia and Europe, as global financial markets are still haunted by trade war fears and emerging market weakness. The major US indices rolled over after another period of apparent relative strength, with the Nasdaq being the most robust market once again, while most of the key European benchmarks continue to lag behind.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Chinese assets are still in focus before the weekend, as the Yuan’s recent steep devaluation sparked fears of a credit meltdown in the country. With the largest credit bubble in human history casting its shadow on China, some analysts think that with Trump’s trade war, the bug finally found its windshield and the bubble already started to burst.

USD/Yuan, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

All eyes are on the USD/Yuan pair as Chinese authorities are reportedly intervening in the market of the currency, and most likely local equities as well, trying to prevent a serious run on the most important assets.

With the Chinese stock market already in a bear market, and the Yuan trading at fresh 12-month lows against the Dollar, it might be a bit late to stop the slide, but the intervention could cause spectacular short squeezes.

Italy also made headlines today during the European session, as Italian government bonds got slammed lower, as the future of the new finance minister is uncertain, with another round of political turmoil possibly ahead for Europe’s most vulnerable country.

Unicredit (UCG), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Looking at the charts of Italian banks, it’s clear that the spring turmoil had a lasting effect on the financial system, as Unicredit is on the verge of hitting a new low, and the other large players also remain under pressure, in part explaining the general weakness in European equities.

Europe Still Far Behind amid Mixed Economic Numbers

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The economic calendar is almost empty today with regards to the key markets, as the Canadian Retail Sales and CPI reports are the most important releases. The Canadian Dollar rebounded when the USD entered a correction June, but now the currency edging lower again, as the weakness in commodities and the Greenback’s rally are taking their toll. New highs are likely in the USD/CAD pair in the coming weeks, although strong resistance is just ahead at 1.33.

Commodities are little changed today after yesterday’s volatile session, as the bounce in China helped to stabilize the segment. Notably copper is back above the key $2.70 level, while WTI crude oil is trading at $68 per barrel again, and gold is hovering around $1225.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 297 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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