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Better Late Than Never

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Six months since Brexit was officially triggered it seems that talks may finally be on track. After a few short detours, all cylinders are firing today.

Though there are still disagreements in how the UK will look without Europe at least everyone is finally talking about it. Better late than never.

May will be attending a Euro gathering in Estonia today to push her agenda. However, some of the other attendees have very big agenda’s as well.

Emanuel Macron, for example, has just delivered a huge speech on the unification of Europe. His plan is full of specific proposals to make the continent great but will require a lot of work and full focus.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Please note that there will be no market update tomorrow due to local holidays. We will resume as normal on Monday October 2nd.

 

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of September 28th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

Markets are currently gushing over Trump’s proposed tax reforms. Some analysts would say that these tax cuts have been the reason markets have been rising since November and that they’re already priced into the markets…

Washington does seem to finally be rallying behind the President and many politicians seem to be generally in favor of reducing taxes. However, the proposal that’s currently on the table is a bit short of expectations.

Donald Trump’s campaign promise was that he would be cutting corporate taxes to 35% to 15%. The draft that he proposed yesterday would only cut it to 20%. Though that’s only 5% more for companies it’s still 25% less than promised.

So we’ll be watching the political stage closely in the United States in the hope that this can actually go through.

BoE Independence

As we’ve stated before, central banks are the ones who really move markets. Even though they remain largely behind the scenes to the average person, most of the largest market movements of the past decade have been caused by direct interference from these institutions.

So it pays to pay attention to what they’re saying.

Today, the Bank of England will be holding a grand celebration to mark the 20th independence day. In 1997, then Chancellor Gordon Brown granted the BoE the freedom to set rates and dictate monetary policy.

Of course Mark Carney will be there as well as the assistant governor of the RBA. Theresa May is also expected to attend but I’m not so certain she’ll make it back in time.

Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve in the United States Stanley Fischer will also be speaking at the event. Stanley has recently resigned his post from the Fed for personal reasons. So he may be a bit more revealing today.

Expect volatility in the currency markets throughout the day.

New Crypto Rally

It all started with Ripple, which seemingly out of nowhere gained 10% in the span of an hour. Soon the other cryptos began to join in the fun.

The party peaked when Bitcoin busted through the $4000 level and kept right on through $4100. As of this writing, it’s holding above $4,200.

Ethereum was the last to join the party but did end up breaking through the psychological barrier of $300 by the end of the day. Better late than never!

Not only that. Just in the heat of the rally, the crypto market received some support from the most unlikely of places.

The CEO of Morgan Stanley James Gorman came out in broad favor of Bitcoin as an alternative to central banking.

Inline image 5

He also said that Bitcoin was “more than just a fad.” This is a direct contradiction of what his counterpart at JP Morgan had to say.

Let’s have an awesome day an amazing weekend!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Altcoins

Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH/USD Bearish Flag Structure Eyed

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  • Ethereum price has stabilized but is moving within a dangerous range-block formation.
  • ETH/USD via the daily chart view is forming a bearish flag pattern.

ETH/USD price action has stabilized over the past five days, and is moving within a narrowing range. This movement appears to be somewhat expressing potential downside risks after the selling pressure seen in the second week of January. As a recap, the price was supported in its move north from mid-December 2018 up to 7th January. An ascending trend line was proving necessary comfort in this trend higher, however markets bears managed to force a breach. The support gave way, opening the door to a fresh wave of selling from 8th January.

ETH/USD daily chart.

Around 30% of the bull run that was seen in the above-mentioned period has been reversed. Vulnerabilities continue to linger, as ETH/USD trades around key daily support. The level to be aware of is $116.70, which is vital ahead of the big psychological $100 mark. A breach could see a test of daily support at $102, with the price likely to consolidate between here and $116. Given prior behavior around these areas, ETH/USD may be forced to retest the December 2018 low, $83.10. This would likely be the case, should a return of bullish momentum not see a pickup in pace soon.

Constantinople Hard Fork Delay

The stability in price is surprising given the let down for the community with regards to the heavily anticipated Constantinople hard fork. As reported by the CCN team, Ethereum’s core developers called for the Constantinople upgrade to be delayed. This was just some hours before the hard fork was scheduled to go live on the network. ETH/USD fell double-digits on the back of this being postponed. A drop of 10% was observed.

Technical Review – ETH/USD

Looking via the daily chart view, price action is forming a bearish flag pattern structure – the pole which is seen with the fall from 7-10th January. In terms of the actual flag, this is the current range-block viewed. Upside resistance can be seen just ahead at $135, and lower support noted the mentioned $116.70 area. The next major areas of support are the $102 daily pivot point, the December 2018 low of $83.10, and then lastly, the May 2017 low of $65.85.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 107 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

Cardano Price Analysis: ADA Bulls Set for Another Retest of Big Supply Area

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  • ADA/USDT trading firmly within the green on Wednesday, outperforming its peers.
  • Cardano Shelley upgrade is heavily anticipated across the community.

The ADA/USDT pair was seen holding decent gains in the session on Wednesday, up as much as 5%. The bulls are looking at resuming their decent upside momentum, which was seen through mid-December early January. In terms of that rally seen, the price gained a whopping 90%, moving from around $0.02793 up to a high print at around $0.05368 on 10th January. This was the highest-level ADA/USDT had reached since 19th November.

ADA/USDT daily chart.

The bulls had the wind taken out of their sails after failing to breakdown a known area of supply. This can be seen tracking from $0.04900 up to $0.05400. The price has not been above this level since 19th November 2018, which was a period of heavy selling. Buyers have faltered here on two occasions recently – 24th December 2018 and 10th January. It will not be an easy area to break down; however, upside potential is chunky should it be broken down.

Project Shelley Imminent

The eagerly awaited Shelley update is very much quickly nearing its release from the Cardano foundation. It is set to be launched in the coming few weeks, as can be seen via their roadmap countdown clock.

This update is significant as it will make the Cardano blockchain fully decentralized. The Cardano blockchain is currently within the Byron phase. In terms of the Shelley upgrade, it will additionally mark the release of Cardano 1.5. The foundation provides the following insight from the detailed roadmap, “As we progress through Shelley, work will be done that contributes to stability, interoperability and governance. Throughout the arc of development, Cardano’s protocols will increase in complexity, interdependence and use more exotic cryptographic primitives”.

Technical Review – ADA/USDT

ADA/USDT 4-hour chart.

A near-term upside challenge is seen tracking from $0.043500-$0.045000, via the 4-hour chart view. Over the past six sessions now, the bulls have failed to break this area down. Further north of this, a heavier zone of supply can be observed from $0.04900 up to $0.05400, as detailed earlier.

If the bulls fail to move north of the mentioned areas, then key daily support levels should be noted for potential comfort. Eyes would be on the following levels: $0.03900 (13-14 January low), $0.03550 and then finally $0.027600 (7-16th December 2018 low area).

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 107 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Sideways Drift Continues but Sellers Still in Control

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While the bounce on Monday gave some hope to crypto bulls that last week’s plunge was just a correction in an ongoing broader counter-trend move, so far, we haven’t seen meaningful follow-through. That means that the bearish short- and long-term trends are still dominant in the segment and sellers are clearly in control of every major top coin.

Also, while volatility is relatively low, correlations are still elevated, and volume patterns are bearish as well, so our trend model remains on sell signals with regards to the overwhelming majority of coin on all time-frames. Traders and investors are still advised to stay away from entering new positions, as we have no evidence the bear market is over, and at least the test of the lows is likely in the coming months.

That said, a quick recovery above the primary resistance levels would be a positive sign here, but until we see signs of technical strength, the defensive approach is warranted as bearish risks remain very high here.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin’s relative stability is still the only positive sign among the top coins, but BTC also lacks bullish momentum and it failed to leave the close vicinity of the key $3600 support level. The $3850 resistance is out of reach, for now, and given the clearly bearish long-term setup, traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions here.

A move above that level would be a positive sign for bulls, with further zones between $4000 and $4050, and near $4450, but we still expect a move towards the support levels near $3250 and $3000 in the coming weeks, even if a broader bottoming process might already be underway.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Ethereum spiked higher again towards the $130 resistance level today, the move failed again and bulls failed to make technical progress, with the recent low still being in danger. A sustained push above $130 could still signal a failed break-down pattern, but the lack of bullish momentum points to a continuation of the decline.  Key support is found near $120 and between $95 and $100, while further resistance is ahead at $145, $160, and near $180.

Altcoins Unchanged and Bearish After Choppy Day

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The volatility compression continued in all of the major altcoins as well, but the broad selling pressure is still apparent in the segment. Litecoin failed to get close to the primary resistance zone near $34.50 despite the early-week rally attempt, and it continues to threaten with a move below the key $30-$30.50 support zone.

A breach of support would likely trigger a move towards the $26 level, with the oversold short-term momentum readings now being cleared in the market of LTC. Further strong resistance is ahead near $38 and $44 and with support found near $23, and traders and investors still shouldn’t enter positions here.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple has been showing signs of relative weakness again today, after the brief period of stability and the technical picture continues to be negative on all time-frames, and our trend model is also on short- and long-term sell signals. The $0.32 price level is still in focus, and we still expect a move below $0.30, with strong support found near the $0.26 level, with resistance ahead near $0.3550 and $0.3750.

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash remained among the relatively weaker majors as well, and it still hovering around the $70 price level after bottoming out close to $67.50. A test of the bear market low near $56 seems very likely in the coming weeks, and only a move above the strong resistance zone between $76.50 and $80 would change the short-term outlook for the coin.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 443 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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