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Analysis: Watch Litecoin again

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Litecoin

Litecoin has successfully closed above the arc that had been dragging it down.  I believe the low is in and a rally will ensue to at least $40.

Stellar Lumens

Stellar Lumens had had a huge advance, stopped not once but twice by the top of this setup. We are now below the 5th arc again, and just below (at?) the 2×1 angle which has provided support since the rally began. We are sitting on an energy point in time (red vertical line). This is not a buy here.  At best it is a hold.  Traders sitting on huge profits might consider taking some profits here.

Ripple

Wow. Words can hardly express.  In hindsight, the gap up (highlighted in yellow) should have clued me in that a monster rally was beginning.  A close above the 3rd arc pair prompted me to tweet that “the rally has legs”. While true, that tweet understated the emerging situation.

The rally stopped at the 5th arc and a rather violent reversal ensued.  What’s next now that the coin has regained most of that correction?  We will need to see if we can get a close above the 5th arcs to know.  IMHO it is a hold here for now, though as in the case of XLM, traders sitting on huge profits might take some profits here.

DASH

In our last column we expressed hope that DASH might finally get free of the arc, but that hope was not realized.  It is still stuck to the arc like it was glued there.  However, the top of the square is just below.  This has provided repeated support in the past, and will likely do so again.

Ethereum Classic

This chart is littered with arrows showing how this chart has respected the setup above. A few days ago, when that long green candle crossed the 3rd arc, I thought that the arc was defeated.  It faked me out with that long wick that touched the 1×1 well above the arc. It was a reminder to wait for a close above the arc.  Pricetime pulled back to the arc before the close, and has been stuck in the arc ever since. We are at an energy point again.  Will it break free now?  Maybe so, but let’s wait for a close on the sunny side of the arc before we buy it.

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsJim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here. If you do well as a result of suggestions made here, feel free to say thank you :) BTC: 1FUq3GB1Q8zz2JpuBr7YHzVBKnaWoxgmya Follow him on Twitter (@jimfred1276) or email him at jimfred1276 at gmail.




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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. chorez

    May 18, 2017 at 8:09 pm

    What do you think of XEM? will the rise continue? It seems to have a good support level at 0.00009

  2. Crytokings

    May 18, 2017 at 9:02 pm

    Jim, your chart analysis and tweets have been invaluable to me since subscribing to hacked.com Thanks for your wise and careful examination of the multitude of alt coins!

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Altcoins

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis: BCH/USD Hard Flops as Price Moves Within the Abyss

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  • Bitcoin Cash price falls into uncharted territory, struggling to find a bottom.
  • Weekly chart still points to further downside, RSI not within oversold territory as of yet.

The Bitcoin Cash price remains heavily on the back foot, the standout under-performer across the major altcoins. BCH/USD is currently running at three consecutive sessions of losses. The streak could have been much longer, however the price was given a breather ahead of a pick up in downside intensity. In the past two weeks, BCH/USD has dropped over 60%.

As covered in an article earlier in the month, BCH/USD failed to break down a key area of supply. This was seen within the $650 territory; the price had faltered here in early September. It was forced back down to the south, to then retreat at some neckline support, $410.

BCH/USD daily chart

The most recent occurrence within the above-mentioned supply zone was seen between 6-8 November. Heavy sellers piled in, forcing the price initially down to the neckline support, $410. Between the 15-19th November, BCH/USD had breached, retested and consolidated around this area, before a resumption of further bloodshed.

Downside Targets

Looking via the weekly chart, the BCH/USD exchange rate demonstrates that the price is literally falling into the abyss. This fall is very much uncharted territory, so the bears are free to drive this a far south as it needs to be taken. In terms of the RSI, this indicates that there is still some room for this to be driven lower. It has not quite reached oversold territory yet.

BCH/BTC weekly chart

When observing BCH/BTC, at the time of writing the price is testing the previous session’s low. This area is significant as it provided much needed support in October 2017. A break here and close below 0.04775 could be punishing. This again is movement into an unknown realm of price action, so it remains unclear where the bottom will be at this time.

Upside Targets

In terms of upside barriers, given the recent price action, new areas of resistance have been formed. Firstly, around the $370 level, as this was the former acting support during the consolidation between 15-18th November. Furthermore, eyes would then be on a retest of the breached neckline former support, $410. Lastly, should both these areas be conquered again, the supply from $600-650 would be next up.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 55 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Forex Analysis And Chartbook: Tech Selloff Resumes, Dollar Dips Again, as Yields Hit 2-Month Low

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Monday Market Snapshot

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2,697 -1.62%
DAX 30 11,244 -0.85%
WTI Crude Oil 56.76 -0.12%
GOLD 1,224 0.21%
Bitcoin 4,989 -10.26%
EUR/USD 1.1452 0.32%

While all eyes were on the cryptocurrency segment today, as the major coins continue to fall sharply, traditional financial markets have also been very active before Thanksgiving. The last days have been dominated by the strong rally in US Treasuries (a dip in yields, in other words) which carried the yield curve to a 2-month low today, due to Jerome Powell’s dovish words, global growth worries, and European worries regarding the Brexit process and Italy.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar has also been feeling the effects of the falling Treasury yields, and after hitting a more than one-year high against the Euro this month, the Greenback fell to its lowest level in almost two weeks.  The long-term uptrend is not in danger in the pair and in the broader Dollar index, and with no higher swing high in the EUR/USD even the short-term downtrend is intact. That said, should the pair remain above the 1.1440 level, a short-term trend change could be ahead.

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

US stocks had an ugly day despite a quiet overnight session which was helped by the continued optimism in China, in the face of the diplomatic disaster on the APEC summit. The meeting ended without a formal communiqué for the first time ever, due to the US-Chinese spat that took another turn when US Vice President Mike Pence attacked China on several issues, dampening hopes of a quick resolution to the dispute before the looming Trump-Xi meeting.

The major indices finished sharply lower after a steep morning selloff on Wall Street and the Nasdaq got very close to its October lows due to the weakness in some of the largest tech names such as Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB).

While both stocks fell on bearish news, with the report on a significant iPhone production- cut being the most worrying one, the selloff in the key momentum names is a more structural problem, which is likely the sign of the broader bearish shift that we have been following in recent months.

While the year-end cold still holds a stronger bounce, thanks to seasonality and a possible positive turn in the US-Chinese relations, we will still view all rallies as selling opportunities in equities.

Gold and Copper Edge Higher Amid Dollar-Dip

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities had a bullish session thanks in part to the Greenback’s weakness, but gold, copper, and oil were also helped by very different reasons too. While gold benefited from the bearish intraday shift in risk assets, crude oil continued its oversold bounce after a brief spike towards last week’s low, while copper was boosted by the stability in Chinese assets.

The precious metal is holding above the key short-term $1215 level, and although bulls are still not out of the woods following this year’s selloff, a move above the October highs would be a very positive sign for the commodity, which we still view as one of the top picks for the coming years.

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Copper is still trading in a broad consolidation pattern, despite the rally of the past days, which was sparked by trade optimism. The long-term fundamentals remain hostile for the industrial metal, given the global slowdown, and especially the state of the Chinese economy, so even in the case of a move above the formation long positions should only be considered for trading.

That said, the short-term outlook is rather neutral, as the year-end could see feel-good risk rally (with copper possibly bouncing as high as $3), even as we expect the commodity to continue its broader downtrend.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 398 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Litecoin Price Analysis: One Last Safety Net Ahead of $20 Territory

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  • Litecoin has been further slammed, dropping 35% over the past two weeks of trading.
  • Should near-term demand area of $35-33 fail to hold, it will be very punishing.

The Litecoin price remains firmly on the back foot, one of the standout under-performers in this current bear market, against some of the other major altcoins. LTC/USD has dropped a chunky 35% over the past going on 2 weeks now. Market bears have been pilling in since the big rejection, after trying to escape out of a bearish pennant pattern. This was attempted on 7th November, the upper trend line of the pennant proved to be too tough.

LTC/USD daily chart

Just a few sessions ago, LTC/USD collapsed through the lower support on the above-mentioned pattern. This was seen around the $49 mark, where the bears came pilling through to further crumble Litecoin. The price plummeted through a strong prior acting demand zone. It was tracking from the big psychological $50 area, down to $47 territory. Bulls had propped LTC/USD on occasions in August, September and October, leading the price on to make decent gains from the noted zone.

LTC/USD 4-hour chart

Between 15-18th November, price action did enter a temporary form of consolidation. As mentioned in the previous article , LTC/USD was trading within a range block, which was very much vulnerable to a breakout south, having since proved to be the case. It was eyed also as a bearish flag pattern set up, where sellers took a deep breather, ahead of the continued deep move south. LTC/USD lost over 15% from that consolidation area to current levels.

Key Support

LTC/USD weekly chart

Looking to the downside, eyes are locked in on the price range of $35 down to $33. The LTC/USD pair had consolidated within this area from June to August 2017, before being off on its journey north. In September 2017 this demand area proved required support for the bulls to continue their stampede higher. A failure to hold here will be very punishing to say the least. LTC/USD could be forced back down to $29 territory. The price was last seen here in June 2017.

Upside Barriers

There are now some big challenges ahead for LTC/USD, if it wants to return to heightened levels. During this bear market observed throughout this year, price action has formed new areas of resistance. It has all been uncharted territory, and unlike the 2017 bull run, there will be barriers that need to be broken for greater upside. The gains seen last year were not too challenging to achieve, as there was no history there for the bulls to deal with.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 55 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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