Litecoin has successfully closed above the arc that had been dragging it down. I believe the low is in and a rally will ensue to at least $40.
Stellar Lumens had had a huge advance, stopped not once but twice by the top of this setup. We are now below the 5th arc again, and just below (at?) the 2×1 angle which has provided support since the rally began. We are sitting on an energy point in time (red vertical line). This is not a buy here. At best it is a hold. Traders sitting on huge profits might consider taking some profits here.
Wow. Words can hardly express. In hindsight, the gap up (highlighted in yellow) should have clued me in that a monster rally was beginning. A close above the 3rd arc pair prompted me to tweet that “the rally has legs”. While true, that tweet understated the emerging situation.
The rally stopped at the 5th arc and a rather violent reversal ensued. What’s next now that the coin has regained most of that correction? We will need to see if we can get a close above the 5th arcs to know. IMHO it is a hold here for now, though as in the case of XLM, traders sitting on huge profits might take some profits here.
In our last column we expressed hope that DASH might finally get free of the arc, but that hope was not realized. It is still stuck to the arc like it was glued there. However, the top of the square is just below. This has provided repeated support in the past, and will likely do so again.
This chart is littered with arrows showing how this chart has respected the setup above. A few days ago, when that long green candle crossed the 3rd arc, I thought that the arc was defeated. It faked me out with that long wick that touched the 1×1 well above the arc. It was a reminder to wait for a close above the arc. Pricetime pulled back to the arc before the close, and has been stuck in the arc ever since. We are at an energy point again. Will it break free now? Maybe so, but let’s wait for a close on the sunny side of the arc before we buy it.
Remember: The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment. Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.
Daily Analysis: Dollar Falls, Gold Jumps after Yellen’s Final Move
Wednesday Market Recap
|Asset||Current Value||Daily Change|
|WTI Crude Oil||56.65||-0.68%|
The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected today, and although the central bank’s monetary statement was slightly more hawkish than expected, the market’s reaction didn’t reflect the much-anticipated move. The worse than expected Core CPI reading that underlined the low-inflation narrative weighed on the recently strong Greenback, while stocks were unchanged after decision and bonds gained ground as yields retreated.
EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The major indices are hovering near their all-time highs with the DOW leading the way higher, hitting a new record for the second day in a row. While volatility Is expected to remain low as we approach the end of the year, market internals and valuation levels are still concerning from a long-term perspective, and stocks outside the US are also negatively diverging. The action in crude oil could be slightly more interesting as the commodity is starting to act in a slightly bearish manner after a grinding multi-month rally.
WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The Brexit process is still in the center of attention in Europe, although volatility took a nosedive on the old continent as well, and it’s unlikely that the Christmas period will be much different, given the predictable drop in volumes and trading activity. The date of the next election in the financially and politically troubled Italy has been set to March 4th next year, and the early date caused some turmoil in the countries assets, which dragged the Euro Stoxx 50 lower today, together with the DAX and the other major indices.
As the total market cap of the crypto-market crossed the incredible $500 billion mark, Ripple, NEO, and Ethereum made headlines with lofty gains in the face of the severely overbought readings elsewhere in the segment. While XRP and NEO are still not overbought from an investment perspective, Ethereum reached our final target for its break-out and triggered a long-term sell signal.
ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The previously surging IOTA continued its correction, Litecoin consolidated in a relatively narrow range, while Dash, ETC, and Monero scored marginal new highs before turning lower together with BTC. The most valuable coin that has lost some of its momentum “mojo” in recent days fell back below last week’s highs, and that could mark a failed break-out and a start of the deeper correction that seems more and more likely.
BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Key Economic Releases on Wednesday
|11:30||UK||Claimant Count Change||5,900||3,300||6,500|
|15:30||US||Crude Oil Inventories||-5.1 mill||-3.6 mill||-5.6 mill|
|21:00||US||Fed Rate Decision||1.5%||1.5%||1.25%|
Featured image from Shutterstock
Technical Analysis: Volatility on the Rise Again, as Ripple and Ethereum Hit Targets
Ripple has been the star of today’s session in the cryptocurrency segment, as the only major coin on a long-term buy signal in our trend model continued yesterday’s break-out, and surged to a new all-time high. The currency cleared the $0.425 level that marked the top in May, and after the more than 6-month long consolidation phase, it promptly neared the $0.50 level.
While the short-term momentum indicators are now stretched, the coin is still in an encouraging long-term setup, although the best period to buy already passed. The coin could be dragged lower in the case of the expected broad correction in the segment, but we expect XRP to outperform in the coming period, with support levels found at the prior high and below that in the range between $0.30-$0.32.
XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ethereum has been the other top coin on the rise, as the second largest digital currency surged past the final range projection target of the break-out two weeks ago at $685 in the aftermath of the launch of the BTC futures on Monday. The ETH token is now also on a sell signal on all time-frames, and we advise investors and investors to wait for the next major correction to establish new positions. Support levels are now found at $575, $500, $480, and $400.
ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Grinds Higher as Records Tumble in Altcoins
The historical surge in the segment, which is the second such move this year, continued today, with another round of break-outs in some of the major altcoins and tepid gains for BTC investors. Ethereum, Ripple, Dash, and first and foremost Litecoin was leading the charge, with the recent star LTC topping $300, just after a day of hitting the $200 mark.
Litecoin defied all odds after reaching extremely overbought readings, and the coin rode the speculative wave, turning exponential, not unlike IOTA and Bitcoin previously. With the coin being stretched in an unprecedented way on all time-frames, investors could even consider selling their core positions at the current levels, as a deep correction is almost granted in the coming period. The first meaningful support level is found at $125, and a re-test of the $100 level is probable during the next major correction.
LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ripple finally ended a long period of relative weakness today, and the only major on a long-term by signal jumped over primary resistance at $0.26 and crossed the $0.30-$0.32 too in the euphoric sentiment. As the coin is not long-term overbought following the 6-month long consolidation, the buy signal in XRP remains intact, with the only major resistance level being found at the all-time high near $0.425.
XRPUSDT/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
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