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Analysis: Ripple Price Nears $0.25 as Rally Continues

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Cryptocurrencies are on the rise today, as the short-term correction that we have been monitoring lost its steam, and the major coins turned higher. Ripple is leading the way once again, as while Bitcoin is battling with the $4400 resistance after the recovery. With no major news affecting the segment, technical factors reign supreme, and the underlying bullish trend lifts the market. BTC found support near the $4150 level while the MACD got back to neutral, and a continuation of the rally is now very likely. Further support is found at $4000 and $3800, while resistance is ahead at the $4650 and $5000 price level.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The rest of the market is also bullish before the weekend, with all of the other majors trading in the green. NEO is still the most volatile coin, now being up by more than 5%, while Monero, Dash, Ethereum Classic, and Litecoin also being meaningfully higher. We expect the positive trend to continue over the weekend, but with correlations being low, the coins might diverge significantly. Let’s see the short-term setups.

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Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum re-tested the $285 support once again, but it is now trading above $300, within its narrow range. The long-term picture is still clearly positive, and a rally towards the $330 level is likely in the coming days, as the MACD is after a bullish cross. Support levels are found near $250 and $235, while further resistance is ahead near $380.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is stuck in a narrow short-term trading range between the $51 support and the $56 resistance level. The coin is still among the relatively weak majors, but recently some encouraging signs emerge and a rally above $56 could signal a quick surge to $64. Further support is still found near $44 while another resistance level is ahead at $75.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is also among the laggards regarding the short-term performance, although the long-term picture remains very bullish, with the coin still being well above its July highs, and inside a rising long-term trend. The currency held up above the $300 support during the current consolidation, and we expect a move above $360 in the coming weeks.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP is after perfect break-out form a short-term consolidation pattern and the coin surpassed the key resistance zone around $0.22, as we expected. The currency is now likely headed to test the $0.26 level, with both the short- and long-term picture still being positive. Support levels are now found at $0.22, $0.20 and $0.18, with resistance ahead at $0.26 and $0.30.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic is back above the $12 level but it remains well below the key resistance zone near $13.50, and it is yet to provide a short-term buy signal for traders. That said, long-term investors could still add to their positions here, and the coin remains above the prior declining trend channels, with support near $11 and $9, and resistance ahead at $16 and $18.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is edging closer to the dominant declining trendline in the calm environment, and the coin is trading in a very narrow range just below the $100 resistance. With the long-term picture still being very bullish, we expect a new uptrend to develop in the coming weeks, with resistance levels ahead at $125 and near the all-time high above $150. Key support levels are found at $80 and $68.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO remained inside its steeply rising short-term trend, despite the recent volatile correction, and the coin has recovered well of the $30 support. The MACD is now in neutral territory, and the currency could soon test the $40 resistance again, especially if the broad rally continues. Support is now found at $30 and $25 while resistance is ahead at the $34 and $40 levels.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA is trading in a narrow short-term range and it is still not out its correction, while remaining well below the $0.64 resistance. That said, the technical picture is encouraging and we expect the rally to resume soon. Primary support is found in the $0.45-$0.48 zone, with resistance ahead above $0.64 around the $0.75 level.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dow Leapfrogs 23,000 as IBM Beats Estimates

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2560 0.13%
DAX 13043 0.35%
WTI Crude Oil 52.02 0.29%
GOLD 1284.00 -0.23%
Bitcoin 5435 -3.15%
EUR/USD 1.1793 0.23%

IBM surged higher today, as the company beat analysts’ expectations across the board, pushing the company’s shares up by more than 10% and helping the Industrial Average to a new all-time high yet again. The other major US indices kept on grinding higher as well for most of the day, despite the strong overvaluation, with the Volatility Index (VIX) still hovering around the 10 level. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 finished virtually unchanged after a late-session sell-off, while small caps outperformed in the mixed environment.

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DOW 30 Index, Daily Chart Analysis

Global stocks also edged higher, with the Nikkei still leading the way, although the momentum of the move is still weak. The Yen’s weakness was the most apparent trend in currency markets, while the Pound rebounded well, despite the persistent Brexit worries, with the Dollar giving back some of its recent gains compared to its major peers. Gold also remained under pressure after retreating back below $1300 this week, while crude oil rallied on a bigger than expected, hurricane-related decline in US production.

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Gold 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The major coins had a hectic and bearish session, especially in early trading, as Bitcoin’s overbought conditions coupled with Ripple’s sudden downturn led to a segment-wide decline. Ethereum continued to slip, as the Byzantium-related optimism faded away, but it remained well above the $285 level, and recovered above $300 towards the end of the session. NEO and IOTA still have a negative correlation with the rest of the market, as the two coins surged higher in early trading and gave back their gains during the late-day rebound.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The DAX closed on a marginal new all-time high again, but the lengthy momentum divergence in the MACD indicator suggests that the steep uptrend continues to be in jeopardy. The low-volatility drift carried the benchmark above the 13,000 level, but a correction towards at least the 12,850 level is likely in the coming days, with another support level at 12,650 serving as a longer-term target. As the long-term uptrend is clearly intact, bears shouldn’t go all-in here but bulls should consider exiting their positions and wait until a correction to trade the long side again.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
3:30 EUROZONE Mario Draghi Speaks
3:30 UK Average Earnings 2.2% 2.1% 2.1%
14:30 UK Claimant Count 1,700 3,200 -2,800
14:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
16:00 CANADA Manufacturing Sales 1.6% -0.1% -2.6%
14:30 US Building Permits 1.22 mill 1.25 mill 1.27 mill
16:00 US Housing Starts 1.13 mill 1.18 mill 1.18 mill
15:45 US Crude Oil Inventories -5.7 mill -4.7 mill -2.7 bill

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
2:30 AUSTRALIA Employment Change 15,200 54,200
2:30 AUSTRALIA Unemployment Rate 5.6% 5.6%
4:00 CHINA GDP 6.8% 6.9%
4:00 CHINA Industrial Production 6.4% 6.0%
10:30 UK Retail Sales -0.1% 1.0%
14:30 US Unemployment Claims 245,000 243,000
14:30 US Philly Fed Index 22.2 23.8
15:45 US Chicago PMI 58.6 58.9

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Dumps and Pumps amid Broad Volatile Correction

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The crypto segment has been in turmoil today, as the most valuable coins turned significantly lower, leading to a mini-panic, but they rallied strongly off their slows as buyers stepped in the second half of the session.

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Bitcoin fell as low as $5100, for a 15% correction top-to-bottom, but it is now trading near the prior short-term support at $5400. As the long-term picture remains overbought, investors shouldn’t open new positions here, but traders could play a likely move towards the $6000 level, although we still advise small sizes, as correction risks remain elevated.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The other majors were also declining in early trading, led by Ripple, with only NEO and IOTA, holding up well during the sell-off.  Both of the latter coins faded away as the rest of the market recovered, but Ripple continued to suffer. For now, the long-term bullish picture is unchanged for the segment, but BTC’s overbought correction could still cause volatility in the coming period. Let’s see the short-term charts after the busy session.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Rally Continues amid Fed Chair Confusion

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Tuesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2554 -0.09%
DAX 12995 -0.07%
WTI Crude Oil 51.53 -0.66%
GOLD 1287.00 -1.22%
Bitcoin 5652 -0.86%
EUR/USD 1.1751 -0.38%

Yesterday’s trends are mostly continued in financial markets, such as the low-volatility levitation in stocks and the slightly more active trading in currencies with the apparent Dollar strength. The Great British Pound continued to be under pressure amid the amplified Brexit-related worries, but most of the other majors also lost ground to the Greenback.

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The Dollar rally has been fueled by the rise in the odds of some of the hawkish Fed Chair candidates, while overall, the “race” for the positions looks more chaotic than ever. Interestingly, the long-end of the yield curve is refusing to follow the short-term moves, and without the effects of the Fed’s QE program, the yield curve would probably be inverted by now, signaling strong recession risks.

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The major stock indices are virtually unchanged yet again and even the previously surging Nikkei entered a consolidation, adding to the unusual October lull. Commodities have been quite active thanks to the Dollar’s vigor, with crude oil and gold both turning lower. Oil gave back most of yesterday’s gains as the Iraqi-Kurdish conflict turned out to be less violent than previously feared, and the brief rally fizzled.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The major coins are having a mixed session at best, as yesterday’s rebound wasn’t durable, and most of the coins turned back lower again. That said, despite the recent choppy price action, the total market cap of the segment is close to its all-time high, even as only Bitcoin is trading near its own record price level.

The optimism regarding Ethereum major Byzantium upgrade wasn’t enough to lift the second most valuable coin today, and the price of the ETH token retreated below the key $330 level after touching $350 yesterday after the upgrade’s lock-in. Ripple and NEO have been among the most active majors today, but with opposing performances, as Ripple fell significantly after yesterday’s break-out attempt, while NEO defied gravity and jumped above the $30 level after a corrective period.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The S&P 500 is grinding higher despite the overbought short-term momentum readings, and the benchmark is trading very close to its all-time high. The 2550 level is still in focus, but until volatility remains near record lows, the minuscule moves are unlikely to change the technical setup. While a sudden drop in prices could quickly negate the recent break-out, the consolidation could very well lead to further upside, as bulls remain firmly in control, despite the lofty valuation levels.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Tuesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
02:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Meeting Minutes
10:30 UK CPI 3.00% 3.00% 2.90%
11:00 GERMANY ZEW Sentiment 17.6 20.3 17
12:00 EUROZONE Final CPI 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
15:15 US Industrial Production 0.30% 0.40% 0.20%
15:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate 76.00% 76.20% 76.10%

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