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Analysis: Money is Still Pouring In – Bitcoin, Litecoin, Stellar Lumens, Augur, Dash and Ethereum

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As you all must know by now, I am a trader at heart, not an investor.  It’s always been difficult for me to buy-and-hold, because I feel like I can see where corrections will take place, so why not sell if you know its coming?

But these last few days I am having a slight change of heart.  There is so much money pouring into the cryptocoins, and there is no reason to believe that will stop soon.  In fact, the amount of money pouring into there might just keep on increasing for years.

Case in point.  Bitcoin.  The last 2 times I saw a selloff was due, they both occurred, but were very weak corrections.  That can only mean that there are a lot of buyers out there.  Not like the old days when there was a small handful of crypto-traders.  At that time, when a correction occurred there were no more buyers left – everyone was all in – and price plummeted.

So who are these new buyers?  It doesn’t matter, but it seems likely that many of them have never heard of the altcoins. Last week they want to buy Bitcoin at $1800, but neglected Litecoin and his siblings at far cheaper prices.  I don’t think that this ignorance will continue forever.  One day in the not-distant future money will likely be pouring into the altcoins as well.

So it occurs to me that now the smart thing to do is just buy a ton of cheap coins, the ones that are moving, and sit on them.  For example for every 10,000 XLM or XRP one buys, every 1 cent rise in price is worth $100.  Is there anyone who doubts that the price of these coins will be more than $1 by the end of the year?  They might be closer to $10 or $20.  What if you bought 500,000 or a million of them while they are still cheap?  That’s what the so-called Bitcoin whales did 5-6 years ago.  With 500,000 of these cheap coins, every 1 cent rise is $5,000.

It seems like those of us lucky enough to be on this train at this juncture have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

Like I said, it has taken a truly profound realization that we are in the beginnings of what might be a monster multi-year bull market to make me realize that investing is a better option than trading …

Speaking for myself, I will likely not short any market.  When I see a correction coming I will look to buy more if I can, at lower prices.  Its like we are in 1977 and buying yahoo and Microsoft stock at $1 a share, particularly in the case of the still really cheap altcoins that are seeing some volume.

DASH

DASH has been superglued to a 3rd arc pair for some time now.  It is one right side of the pair now. Perhaps falling to the top of the square will be enough to shake it free.

Ethereum Classic

ETC has been moribund since hitting the 3rd arc.  When it gets to the arc again, let’s see what she does.

Ethereum

ETH has been stuck in an arc pair for some time.  But it appears that she will be forced to either break up or break down.  My guess is she will break upwards.

Litecoin

LTC corrected at the end of a square.  She will test that 4th arc again soon.  My guess is she will penetrate it.

Augur

Augur has had plenty of time to advance since clearing the last arc.  The fact that she has not means she probably will continue moving sideways to the next arc.

Bitcoin

XBT corrected at the 3rd arc of this setup as expected.  But it was/is a weak correction. My guess is that the arc will yield on the next test.  Next resistances are $2600 (4th arc) and $3600 (5th arc).

Stellar Lumens

I like Stellar Lumens.  I see that the 2nd arc has been a problem though. If the next test of the arc fails, price will likely fall.  If it does, I will use the opportunity to buy more.

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsJim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here. If you do well as a result of suggestions made here, feel free to say thank you :) BTC: 1FUq3GB1Q8zz2JpuBr7YHzVBKnaWoxgmya Follow him on Twitter (@jimfred1276) or email him at jimfred1276 at gmail.




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36 Comments

36 Comments

  1. Gabriel

    May 14, 2017 at 11:54 am

    On point as always.
    When the price of a few alts went down recently, I did wonder whether to sell and buy again after the correction, but I didn’t see the point, as the corrections were quickly overcome. The principles of value investing apply perfectly in the current environment. Buying great assets at very cheap price… What else would you need?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 14, 2017 at 12:29 pm

      I know you are correct on this point. For myself, I must struggle to change old habits…

      • jarosatori

        May 14, 2017 at 1:11 pm

        So you’re proposing to sell XRP at this point and wait for cheaper price? How serious the correction of XLM could be in your opinion?

        • Jim Fredrickson

          May 14, 2017 at 2:43 pm

          I only tell you what I see. Sometimes I see things correctly, sometimes I miss things. What traders do with my thoughts is of course up to them.
          XLM has just made a bullish move after a long sideways move. (I hate sideways moves the most, personally. It is so very easy to get lost.) But after a bearish fakeout, the 2nd arc that has stopped XLM for quite some time has apparently yielded. The candle has not closed yet, but the penetration is convincing.
          As for XRP, I see a short term bearish case, and a longer term bullish case.

          • jarosatori

            May 14, 2017 at 8:43 pm

            Thank you very much for answer. How much time is “long sideway move”? 🙂 Today XLM hit almost 0.041 USD per token on kraken – was this the test of 2nd arc?

  2. tadej

    May 14, 2017 at 12:23 pm

    There is a lot of analysis out there predicting XRP fall. The picture I see is that XRP is quite strong and will continue to rise for the reasons mentioned in the beginning of the article. What do you think?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 14, 2017 at 12:27 pm

      I see your point. There is a bullish case to be made for XRP. But I also see a bear case, though the bear case is short term. Longer term there is not much doubt that the XRP price will be much higher in a month’s time. (imho)

      • iamniks

        May 14, 2017 at 8:56 pm

        I know that you are not a big fan of rumors, however, it is very likely that Ripple will announce tokens lock-up on May 22 during the Consensus conference (https://twitter.com/coindesk/status/859105209854906373). This means an instant increase in value due to decreased amount of tokens in the system. So if there would be a bearish move, I’d use it to buy as much as possible during this week and sit quietly 🙂 What do you think?

  3. hanjit@connoisseurs.com.my

    May 14, 2017 at 1:22 pm

    Hi Jim,

    Thanks for the update. Its always a good thing hearing your opinion on these cryptocurrencies.

    Regarding Stellar, do you see iyho , these gems will one day be giants?

    Have a good week ahead.

  4. MSNP05

    May 14, 2017 at 5:43 pm

    How do I buy XRP and stellar lumens as I cannot buy those from coinbase ?

    • MaxButya

      May 14, 2017 at 6:10 pm

      Hey, you can register on Poloenix and buy these coins there!

    • gullyfoyle

      May 14, 2017 at 8:42 pm

      They are also available on Kraken. I prefer to trade alts on polo and XRP, XML, XMR on Kraken, spreading the risk as it were between exchanges.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 15, 2017 at 12:26 am

      Inconvenient, I know, but you could open an account at an exchange that offers them? I trade at kraken. You can buy them there.

      • MSNP05

        May 16, 2017 at 7:09 am

        Unfortunately i live in WA state in US and both Kraken and Polenix are banned here.. is there another exchange where i can purchase these ?

        • Jim Fredrickson

          May 16, 2017 at 7:13 am

          Can’t you just use a vpn and get to kraken through a different country’s ip? I imagine that would be a quick and relatively easy solution??

  5. gullyfoyle

    May 14, 2017 at 8:49 pm

    As much as I want to believe the multi-year bull market talk. My logical side is screaming at me to be careful here. Are we in exuberance? I don’t know. The landscape is different than 2013. There are more technologies being developed and it seems that pricefinding is in the offing.
    Despite elevation, your suggestion to snag up cheap coins on good projects could do well.

  6. Ershad

    May 15, 2017 at 12:30 am

    Hi Jim,

    As always thanks for the great analysis really am greatufl, I wanted to ask can you recommend the top 3 cheap altcoins to buy while their cheap? Also I sold my XRP for the time being but looking to get back into XRP as soon as you give the signal.

    Kind regards
    Ershad

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 15, 2017 at 1:48 am

      If XRP makes a high above the last two tops (~.23) then it seems the danger will have passed. I note that the coin did turn down at the end of square as seemed likely, but did not fall hard. Its possible that it was a false alarm.

      • iamniks

        May 15, 2017 at 5:36 am

        It is 24.5 now:( What is the best place to put buy order now?

        • Jim Fredrickson

          May 15, 2017 at 5:40 am

          so close to the ATH now that i would wait for a rise/close above the ath. but i’m not here to give such detailed advice on a regular basis. I am getting uncomfortable with this level of hand-holding…

          • iamniks

            May 15, 2017 at 7:10 am

            Sorry for that, thank you for your suggestions and good work. Everyone here appreciate it!

  7. rednivad

    May 15, 2017 at 6:47 am

    I am new in Cryptocurrency and have recently started investing in the same. The biggest success for me is Ripple where I invested $700 last Thursday and now it is $1000.

    I am very lame and dont know where to invest. I have kept a budget of $3000 for investment. Please can you recommend few currencies to invest?

    I also bought some currency for Doge, do you think it has potential to grow to $1?

    I will wait for your reply.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 16, 2017 at 12:03 am

      DOGE (XDG) has been rallying a bit. I own some too. I’m not sure how far it can go because there are so very many coins out there. But, who knows?

  8. chorez

    May 15, 2017 at 3:27 pm

    Hey Jim, can you go more into detail on that arc theory, that you are relying on? can you explain it maybe in an article or provide some further reading?

    Thanks

    • gullyfoyle

      May 15, 2017 at 6:12 pm

      It’s Gann angles/arcs. Lots of info available online.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 16, 2017 at 12:08 am

      As gullyfoyle points out, it is Gann angles and arcs. But they have been put together in a nifty tool developed by Eduardo Altman of gunner24.com.

  9. rednivad

    May 16, 2017 at 12:12 am

    Ltc is down do you think it is good time to buy?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 16, 2017 at 1:04 am

      Depends. Long-term its a great buy at these prices (imho). Short-term I think it might drop a bit more.

  10. karthikg82

    May 16, 2017 at 1:49 am

    Hi Jim,
    How do you see today’s correction in LTC after the segwit activation?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 16, 2017 at 7:03 am

      I am glad to hear about segwit, but don’t think you can use news like that for short-term trading. long-term it is likely relevant, but as you can see, traders, if anything, sold the news. one of the reasons i don’t use news to trade.
      ltc likely has a few more dollars to correct.

  11. rednivad

    May 16, 2017 at 7:23 am

    Hi Jim all the currency is down except stellar and ripple. Which currency to invest in short term? would you suggest trade Doge with LTC/PPC?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 16, 2017 at 7:29 am

      XDG is doing well. I own some, but wonder how high it can go, when there are so many billions of coins issued? But it might pull off a good rally despite that? its possible.

  12. rednivad

    May 16, 2017 at 7:41 am

    Thanks Jim Do you see growth potential in PPC in short term? And regarding LTC at what point should we buy?

  13. SuccessHappinessFreedom@gmail.com

    May 16, 2017 at 2:49 pm

    Litecoin down to $24USD? should I buy more or sell out?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 17, 2017 at 12:19 am

      IMHO this is a time and price to start buying LTC, not sell it.

      • SuccessHappinessFreedom@gmail.com

        May 17, 2017 at 12:25 am

        Thank YOU!! I truly appreciate your perspective.

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Analysis

USD/JPY Price Prediction: Trade Talks and FOMC Minutes are Huge Downside Risks; 110.25 Key Daily Support Eyed

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  • Focus shifts to a possible FOMC hiking halt confirmation following the dovish rate decision from January.
  • Trade talks continue in Washington, with USD pumped up on much optimism.

The USD/JPY bulls have been pushing the pair higher at quite some pace, as it completed its second consecutive trading week in the green. It has gained around 160 pips to the upside, moving from 109.50 up to a high last week of 111.13 before running into sellers. The pair managed to jump to its highest level seen since the back-end of December 2018. There are encouraging signs of a full reversal, following the steep losses that came into play from mid-December.

As a recap, a significant drop was observed from the week commencing 17th December last year; this followed the FOMC rate decision that was out during that week. The FOMC did increase rates back then; however, it was very much a dovish hike. The Fed’s accompanying statement at the time appeared to signal FOMC members are anticipating two rate hikes in 2019, down from their previous dot-plot projection of three rate hikes. The indications of a slowdown from this meeting were enough to see the markets start pricing in a downturn in moves north with interest rates from the Fed.

FOMC Minutes on Wednesday

Back in January, the FOMC made a complete U-turn on its monetary policy stance. FOMC members effectively noted that the balance sheet could be adjusted if need be. Furthermore, the FOMC called for ‘patience’ with future rate hikes. At the time, this generated a large amount of weakness for the greenback. Eyes are on a potential dovish statement from the central bank, with close attention to the language used.

Market participants will be looking for further confirmation that the bank’s hiking cycle is over. As a result, this could potentially force pressure to the downside on the USD, should the market interpret such a tone from the FOMC.

Trade Talks Progress

Another big influencer for the greenback this week will be the developments between the U.S. and China with their ongoing trade talks. They remain very much complicated; however, optimism is still seen following their willingness to continue negotiating in Washington. There was little in terms of anything conclusive during the discussions in Beijing last week; clocks are ticking ahead of the deadline.

Markets will be looking for this possible extension announcement in the deadline from Trump, should the talks go as well as he noted. Should nothing conclusive come out of these talks, then the market could grow tiresome and start selling USD. Risks remain tilted to the downside, given that USD has been pumping on hope and optimism.

Technical Review – USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily chart.

In terms of upside targets, the bulls will be eyeing a retest of the psychological 111.00 level. The price managed to move into this territory last week between 13-14th February. Last week’s jump came before running into significant sellers, forcing USD/JPY to retreat down at a critical daily support level. Longs are attractive above 110.25 (daily support), which is in proximity to the 61.8% Fibonacci.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 124 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Cryptocurrencies

6 Upcoming Events That Could Trigger a Price Pump for These Cryptocurrencies

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The kind of fundamental developments that sent a coin to the moon in 2017 had already started to lose their potency by the time 2018 came around. As the year wore on, we started to see partnership announcements and technical developments go unnoticed, when once the mere rumour of them was enough to positively impact the price of a coin.

And while 2019 will probably see an extension of this trend, I can’t help but think of the number of times I’ve seen a coin pump 50% in a week, only to go and check the project’s Twitter page and see that they’ve just implemented a new tech update.

By that time I’m too late, and whatever anticipation was being speculated on has turned into news, and is now being sold.

So in the spirit of experimentation, here’s a few upcoming technical updates due in the coming weeks.

Aeternity (AE) – First Mainnet Hardfork

Aeternity has three hardforks scheduled over the next year as it completes its migration from Ethereum. The date for this hardfork is only a few days away, but I include it on the basis of Aeternity’s previous volatility, exemplified in this chart from the last seventy days. Volume has been climbing all through February, from $10 million to $50 million.

Hardfork Date: February 20th

IOST (IOST) – Mainnet Launch

Just over a week away from mainnet, the IOST token price has shown signs of life with 4% growth in the past seven days. A summary of what the IOST mainnet promises to bring can be found here in a tweet from co-founder Jimmy Zhong.

Mainnet Launch Date: February 25th

 

Ethereum (ETH) – Constantinople Hardfork

The previously delayed Constantinople hardfork is scheduled for the end of the month. Block rewards will be reduced from 3 to 2 ETH, and the difficulty bomb will be delayed for another year, among other tweaks.

At time of writing ETH is up 8% for the week, with Constantinople ten days away.

Hardfork Date: February 27th

CyberMiles (CMT) – 15 Million Users’ Data Uploaded to Blockchain

A huge migration is set to take place at the end of February as the 5Miles mobile app uploads all of its customers accounts onto the CMT blockchain. Once launched, 5Miles clients will be able to transact independently across the chain. 5Miles is a ‘mobile marketplace’ where users buy and sell various items and services.

Launch Date: February 28th

Theta Token (THETA) – Mainnet Launch

Theta Token is another project set to leave Ethereum for its own mainnet. A look at THETA’s weekly chart shows a token at just about break even, but zooming out to the monthly view reveals that something has been building with THETA for a while.

Mainnet Launch Date: March 15th

QuarkChain (QKC) – Mainnet 1.0

QuarkChain was one of the darlings of the ICO period, and big things were expected from this highly rated project. Big things might still be on the horizon, and we may find out more about QuarkChain when the mainnet lands at the end of March.

Read more on what’s in store for QKC fans in 2019. The coin price has been falling all quarter, and all month. But that trend reversed for the first time this week as the coin regained 6% of its value. Volume jumped from $1 million to $6.8 million in the last few days.

Mainnet Launch Date: March 31st

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 146 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Altcoins

Zcash Price Analysis: ZEC/USD Bears Back in the Driver’s Seat Despite Coinbase Incentive Program Support

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  • ZEC/USD is back within the control of the sellers, as the price has dropped around 9% within the past five sessions.
  • Coinbase announces that Zcash (ZEC) is supported on their learning incentive program. Users can earn $3 worth of ZEC by merely watching educational videos on the privacy coin.

ZEC/USD: Recent Price Action

The Zcash price has been cooling over the past few sessions after the bulls failed to sustain decent upside momentum seen earlier in the month. ZEC/USD has fallen over 9% in the previous five sessions, after hitting $56.75 on 13th February. The mentioned print was the highest seen since 14th January, with the buyers since losing ground.

ZEC/USD was moving within a descending wedge pattern formation; this was observed from 24th December up to the breakout on 8th February. As part of this mentioned push north, the price went on to gain a whopping 15%, rallying for five consecutive sessions. It was the longest run higher that observed since mid-December 2018.

Zcash Added to Coinbase Incentive-Driven Learning Program

U.S cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced Zcash has been added to its incentive program. Users will be able to learn about the privacy-based coin while having the benefit to earn from this program. The reward will be $3 worth of ZEC for watching the educational videos about the cryptocurrency.

Coinbase tweeted from its official account, “Earn $3 worth of Zcash with a new Coinbase Earn opportunity today. Check out the Earn ZEC page to view educational videos about Zcash and earn some along the way!” Users can sign up and start the program to receive their cryptocurrency rewards upon completing the educational series.

The program launched at the back-end of 2018, initially just featuring 0x. Earlier this month, Coinbase added Basic Attention Token (BAT) to the program. Zcash now being the latest is a massive step towards greater global awareness for ZEC by being supported on one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges.

Technical Review – ZEC/USD

ZEC/USD daily chart.

As detailed earlier, the price is heading south, which will likely see the above-detailed descending wedge pattern retested. Support is currently tracking around $47.00, which is where the upper trend line of the descending wedge sits. The mentioned support area coincides with a demand zone, seen from $50.00 down to $46.50. ZEC/USD last traded down at these lows in December 2018, a period when the general market bottomed, after heavy bouts of selling.

Should this support fail to provide necessary comfort, then a strong wave of pressure to the downside may likely be seen. The price may be forced to trade within the complete abyss, an area that has not been observed before. Unknown territory trading is something that is occurring across the industry within this current bear market.

Given the breach of the wedge pattern, there isn’t too much in the way of resistance until the $60 region. A supply zone tracks from $62 up to $65; the price saw several rejections here in January of this year and in December 2018. Further to the north, another likely target would be where the price peaked at the end of 2018, $73.95.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 124 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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