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Analysis: Money is Still Pouring In – Bitcoin, Litecoin, Stellar Lumens, Augur, Dash and Ethereum

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As you all must know by now, I am a trader at heart, not an investor.  It’s always been difficult for me to buy-and-hold, because I feel like I can see where corrections will take place, so why not sell if you know its coming?

But these last few days I am having a slight change of heart.  There is so much money pouring into the cryptocoins, and there is no reason to believe that will stop soon.  In fact, the amount of money pouring into there might just keep on increasing for years.

Case in point.  Bitcoin.  The last 2 times I saw a selloff was due, they both occurred, but were very weak corrections.  That can only mean that there are a lot of buyers out there.  Not like the old days when there was a small handful of crypto-traders.  At that time, when a correction occurred there were no more buyers left – everyone was all in – and price plummeted.

So who are these new buyers?  It doesn’t matter, but it seems likely that many of them have never heard of the altcoins. Last week they want to buy Bitcoin at $1800, but neglected Litecoin and his siblings at far cheaper prices.  I don’t think that this ignorance will continue forever.  One day in the not-distant future money will likely be pouring into the altcoins as well.

So it occurs to me that now the smart thing to do is just buy a ton of cheap coins, the ones that are moving, and sit on them.  For example for every 10,000 XLM or XRP one buys, every 1 cent rise in price is worth $100.  Is there anyone who doubts that the price of these coins will be more than $1 by the end of the year?  They might be closer to $10 or $20.  What if you bought 500,000 or a million of them while they are still cheap?  That’s what the so-called Bitcoin whales did 5-6 years ago.  With 500,000 of these cheap coins, every 1 cent rise is $5,000.

It seems like those of us lucky enough to be on this train at this juncture have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

Like I said, it has taken a truly profound realization that we are in the beginnings of what might be a monster multi-year bull market to make me realize that investing is a better option than trading …

Speaking for myself, I will likely not short any market.  When I see a correction coming I will look to buy more if I can, at lower prices.  Its like we are in 1977 and buying yahoo and Microsoft stock at $1 a share, particularly in the case of the still really cheap altcoins that are seeing some volume.

DASH

DASH has been superglued to a 3rd arc pair for some time now.  It is one right side of the pair now. Perhaps falling to the top of the square will be enough to shake it free.

Ethereum Classic

ETC has been moribund since hitting the 3rd arc.  When it gets to the arc again, let’s see what she does.

Ethereum

ETH has been stuck in an arc pair for some time.  But it appears that she will be forced to either break up or break down.  My guess is she will break upwards.

Litecoin

LTC corrected at the end of a square.  She will test that 4th arc again soon.  My guess is she will penetrate it.

Augur

Augur has had plenty of time to advance since clearing the last arc.  The fact that she has not means she probably will continue moving sideways to the next arc.

Bitcoin

XBT corrected at the 3rd arc of this setup as expected.  But it was/is a weak correction. My guess is that the arc will yield on the next test.  Next resistances are $2600 (4th arc) and $3600 (5th arc).

Stellar Lumens

I like Stellar Lumens.  I see that the 2nd arc has been a problem though. If the next test of the arc fails, price will likely fall.  If it does, I will use the opportunity to buy more.

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsJim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here. If you do well as a result of suggestions made here, feel free to say thank you :) BTC: 1FUq3GB1Q8zz2JpuBr7YHzVBKnaWoxgmya Follow him on Twitter (@jimfred1276) or email him at jimfred1276 at gmail.




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36 Comments

36 Comments

  1. Gabriel

    May 14, 2017 at 11:54 am

    On point as always.
    When the price of a few alts went down recently, I did wonder whether to sell and buy again after the correction, but I didn’t see the point, as the corrections were quickly overcome. The principles of value investing apply perfectly in the current environment. Buying great assets at very cheap price… What else would you need?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 14, 2017 at 12:29 pm

      I know you are correct on this point. For myself, I must struggle to change old habits…

      • jarosatori

        May 14, 2017 at 1:11 pm

        So you’re proposing to sell XRP at this point and wait for cheaper price? How serious the correction of XLM could be in your opinion?

        • Jim Fredrickson

          May 14, 2017 at 2:43 pm

          I only tell you what I see. Sometimes I see things correctly, sometimes I miss things. What traders do with my thoughts is of course up to them.
          XLM has just made a bullish move after a long sideways move. (I hate sideways moves the most, personally. It is so very easy to get lost.) But after a bearish fakeout, the 2nd arc that has stopped XLM for quite some time has apparently yielded. The candle has not closed yet, but the penetration is convincing.
          As for XRP, I see a short term bearish case, and a longer term bullish case.

          • jarosatori

            May 14, 2017 at 8:43 pm

            Thank you very much for answer. How much time is “long sideway move”? 🙂 Today XLM hit almost 0.041 USD per token on kraken – was this the test of 2nd arc?

  2. tadej

    May 14, 2017 at 12:23 pm

    There is a lot of analysis out there predicting XRP fall. The picture I see is that XRP is quite strong and will continue to rise for the reasons mentioned in the beginning of the article. What do you think?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 14, 2017 at 12:27 pm

      I see your point. There is a bullish case to be made for XRP. But I also see a bear case, though the bear case is short term. Longer term there is not much doubt that the XRP price will be much higher in a month’s time. (imho)

      • iamniks

        May 14, 2017 at 8:56 pm

        I know that you are not a big fan of rumors, however, it is very likely that Ripple will announce tokens lock-up on May 22 during the Consensus conference (https://twitter.com/coindesk/status/859105209854906373). This means an instant increase in value due to decreased amount of tokens in the system. So if there would be a bearish move, I’d use it to buy as much as possible during this week and sit quietly 🙂 What do you think?

  3. hanjit@connoisseurs.com.my

    May 14, 2017 at 1:22 pm

    Hi Jim,

    Thanks for the update. Its always a good thing hearing your opinion on these cryptocurrencies.

    Regarding Stellar, do you see iyho , these gems will one day be giants?

    Have a good week ahead.

  4. MSNP05

    May 14, 2017 at 5:43 pm

    How do I buy XRP and stellar lumens as I cannot buy those from coinbase ?

    • MaxButya

      May 14, 2017 at 6:10 pm

      Hey, you can register on Poloenix and buy these coins there!

    • gullyfoyle

      May 14, 2017 at 8:42 pm

      They are also available on Kraken. I prefer to trade alts on polo and XRP, XML, XMR on Kraken, spreading the risk as it were between exchanges.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 15, 2017 at 12:26 am

      Inconvenient, I know, but you could open an account at an exchange that offers them? I trade at kraken. You can buy them there.

      • MSNP05

        May 16, 2017 at 7:09 am

        Unfortunately i live in WA state in US and both Kraken and Polenix are banned here.. is there another exchange where i can purchase these ?

        • Jim Fredrickson

          May 16, 2017 at 7:13 am

          Can’t you just use a vpn and get to kraken through a different country’s ip? I imagine that would be a quick and relatively easy solution??

  5. gullyfoyle

    May 14, 2017 at 8:49 pm

    As much as I want to believe the multi-year bull market talk. My logical side is screaming at me to be careful here. Are we in exuberance? I don’t know. The landscape is different than 2013. There are more technologies being developed and it seems that pricefinding is in the offing.
    Despite elevation, your suggestion to snag up cheap coins on good projects could do well.

  6. Ershad

    May 15, 2017 at 12:30 am

    Hi Jim,

    As always thanks for the great analysis really am greatufl, I wanted to ask can you recommend the top 3 cheap altcoins to buy while their cheap? Also I sold my XRP for the time being but looking to get back into XRP as soon as you give the signal.

    Kind regards
    Ershad

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 15, 2017 at 1:48 am

      If XRP makes a high above the last two tops (~.23) then it seems the danger will have passed. I note that the coin did turn down at the end of square as seemed likely, but did not fall hard. Its possible that it was a false alarm.

      • iamniks

        May 15, 2017 at 5:36 am

        It is 24.5 now:( What is the best place to put buy order now?

        • Jim Fredrickson

          May 15, 2017 at 5:40 am

          so close to the ATH now that i would wait for a rise/close above the ath. but i’m not here to give such detailed advice on a regular basis. I am getting uncomfortable with this level of hand-holding…

          • iamniks

            May 15, 2017 at 7:10 am

            Sorry for that, thank you for your suggestions and good work. Everyone here appreciate it!

  7. rednivad

    May 15, 2017 at 6:47 am

    I am new in Cryptocurrency and have recently started investing in the same. The biggest success for me is Ripple where I invested $700 last Thursday and now it is $1000.

    I am very lame and dont know where to invest. I have kept a budget of $3000 for investment. Please can you recommend few currencies to invest?

    I also bought some currency for Doge, do you think it has potential to grow to $1?

    I will wait for your reply.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 16, 2017 at 12:03 am

      DOGE (XDG) has been rallying a bit. I own some too. I’m not sure how far it can go because there are so very many coins out there. But, who knows?

  8. chorez

    May 15, 2017 at 3:27 pm

    Hey Jim, can you go more into detail on that arc theory, that you are relying on? can you explain it maybe in an article or provide some further reading?

    Thanks

    • gullyfoyle

      May 15, 2017 at 6:12 pm

      It’s Gann angles/arcs. Lots of info available online.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 16, 2017 at 12:08 am

      As gullyfoyle points out, it is Gann angles and arcs. But they have been put together in a nifty tool developed by Eduardo Altman of gunner24.com.

  9. rednivad

    May 16, 2017 at 12:12 am

    Ltc is down do you think it is good time to buy?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 16, 2017 at 1:04 am

      Depends. Long-term its a great buy at these prices (imho). Short-term I think it might drop a bit more.

  10. karthikg82

    May 16, 2017 at 1:49 am

    Hi Jim,
    How do you see today’s correction in LTC after the segwit activation?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 16, 2017 at 7:03 am

      I am glad to hear about segwit, but don’t think you can use news like that for short-term trading. long-term it is likely relevant, but as you can see, traders, if anything, sold the news. one of the reasons i don’t use news to trade.
      ltc likely has a few more dollars to correct.

  11. rednivad

    May 16, 2017 at 7:23 am

    Hi Jim all the currency is down except stellar and ripple. Which currency to invest in short term? would you suggest trade Doge with LTC/PPC?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 16, 2017 at 7:29 am

      XDG is doing well. I own some, but wonder how high it can go, when there are so many billions of coins issued? But it might pull off a good rally despite that? its possible.

  12. rednivad

    May 16, 2017 at 7:41 am

    Thanks Jim Do you see growth potential in PPC in short term? And regarding LTC at what point should we buy?

  13. SuccessHappinessFreedom@gmail.com

    May 16, 2017 at 2:49 pm

    Litecoin down to $24USD? should I buy more or sell out?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 17, 2017 at 12:19 am

      IMHO this is a time and price to start buying LTC, not sell it.

      • SuccessHappinessFreedom@gmail.com

        May 17, 2017 at 12:25 am

        Thank YOU!! I truly appreciate your perspective.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: 5 Altcoins to Watch This Week

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Last week, we covered large cap altcoins such as Bitcoin Cash (BCH/BTC), Monero (XMR/BTC), and Ethereum (ETH/BTC). Many of the alts that we’ve covered in this series have moved according to expectations. However, there are those like Haven Protocol (XHV/BTC) and (DOCK/BTC) that have moved strongly in the last weeks and exceeded expectations. We hope that we deliver more of these gems in this installment.

In this article, we deliver a fresh batch of 5 altcoins to watch this week.

Quarkchain/Bitcoin (QKC/BTC)

Quarkchain broke out of a falling wedge on the 4-hour chart on November 8, 2018 when it broke out of the falling wedge and took out resistance of 650 satoshis. The breakout generated tremendous momentum as the market printed volume that’s over 300% of its daily average. This sparked a rally to 876 satoshis on November 11.

4H chart of QKC/BTC

Currently, the market is trading in overbought territory. Therefore, we expect it to retest support number one (S1). From there, technical indicators must cool off before it can make any meaningful attempt to breach resistance number 1 (R1).

QKC/BTC shows a lot of potential, which is why we believe that it will ignite a bull run once it goes above R1.  

Red Pulse Phoenix/Bitcoin (PHX/BTC)

Red Pulse Phoenix broke out of a rounding bottom pattern on October 27 when it breached resistance of 365 satoshis. This generated a monster rally to 1,000 satoshis on the same day.

4H chart of PHX/BTC

From the looks of it, Red Pulse Phoenix is just getting started. We expect it to range trade between S1 and R1 for some time. This will enable the pair to create a new base of buyers who will help keep the market’s uptrend alive.

Bullish momentum should return once the market flips R1 into support. At that point, 1,000 satoshis is a real possibility.

Bread/Bitcoin (BRD/BTC)

Bread’s 4H chart looks messy, but that’s okay. The market broke out of a descending channel on the 4H chart. This triggered a strong rally to 7,610 satoshis on October 4.

4H chart of BRD/BTC

The market has been consolidating since, range trading between S1 and R1. This is a wide range so feel free to buy low and sell high if you get the opportunity. You can also consider the diagonal trendline as additional support.

In the end, we believe that it’s only a matter of time before Bread takes out R1 and ignites a new bull run.

CloakCoin/Bitcoin (CLOAK/BTC)

CloakCoin shares a couple of similarities with Bread. The first one is that it relies on its diagonal support to keep trending higher. The second one is that it only must take out one more resistance to launch a potentially massive bull run.

4H chart of CLOAK/BTC

Another thing going for CloakCoin is that the 200-day moving average is serving as a firm support. Since late September, the market has managed to bounce every time the candle touched the 200-day MA.

We expect CloakCoin to take out R1 soon and ascend to R2.

PO.ET/Bitcoin (POE/BTC)

We’ve been watching PO.ET from the time it claimed S1 and became bullish. From that point, PO.ET has been generating higher highs and higher lows. Currently, it is positioning to take out R1.

4H chart of POE/BTC

When the market does take out R1, it will trigger the breakout from the inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 4H chart. This will attract more traders who are watching this accumulation period from the sideline. If the breakout takes place, R2 and R3 become easy targets.

Bottom Line

Small cap altcoins with bullish potentials have taken over our watchlist this week. While many are focused on large cap altcoins such as Stellar and Ripple, the likes of Red Pulse Phoenix, CloakCoin, PO.ET, Quarkchain, and Bread are making strong bullish moves in the background.

 

NOTE: a satoshi is the smallest unit of Bitcoin, which equals to 0.00000001 BTC.

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.7 stars on average, based on 267 rated postsKiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 5+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Altcoins

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis: BCH/USD May Have to Return to $400, Before Big Bull Buying

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  • BCH/USD price action did form a potential double top formation, subject to a move back towards the neckline.
  • The RSI indicates price is oversold via the 4-hour chart view, after bouncing in early hours of Monday.

The Bitcoin Cash price remains firmly on the back foot. As a result, of a top area being produced within a heavy touted supply zone. This can be seen within the $650 price region, which as a result has caused BCH/USD bulls to falter in their tracks north. Back in the very early part of September and most recently on 7th November has seen the sellers pile in at this area.

BCH/USD daily chart

Given the current price behavior it would suggest technically, the bears are looking to force a retreat, Eyes would be towards the neckline of the set up. This would see BCH/USD returning to $410, as demonstrated during the selling pressure back in early September. A likely area to attract buyers back in, a failure however to see this area of support hold, could be very punishing indeed.

Possible Neckline Breach

BCH/USD Neckline

Should a breakout to the downside from the $410 area support occur, heavy selling pressure may be seen. Eyes would then be on for a potential steep fall, down towards $285, the next major level of support. BCH/USD last traded down here on 13th October 2017, after seeing a chunky breach through the above-mentioned neckline.

4-hour Chart View

BCH/USD 4-hour chart

Looking via the 4-hour chart view, BCH/USD price action is moving within a descending channel formation. This is very much subject to a potential breakout to the upside; however, as described above, the price may need to retreat towards $410. Near-term resistance can be immediately seen at $530, which is the upper part of the channel.

The resistance above trend line of the detailed technical set up should this continue to hold; it raises the case to the top formation play out. A breakout to the upside now could send BCH/USD flying back for a retest of the $650 region supply. To the downside, support should be noted around the psychological $500 level.

As detailed above with the descending channel, this could also be perceived as a text book bull flag pattern. Such a move coming into play after a decent run higher, to then cool, ahead of another burst to the north. Looking via the RSI, it did hit a bottom, running into oversold territory. This occured in early hours of today – Monday 12th November.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 49 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Pre-Market Analysis And Chartbook: Dollar Hits 16-Month High as European Assets Fall

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Monday Market Snapshot

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2,771 -0.23%
DAX 30 11,381 -1.28%
WTI Crude Oil 60.95 1.79%
GOLD 1,205 -0.36%
Bitcoin 6,367 0.14%
EUR/USD 1.1265 -0.61%

It has been a choppy and somewhat bearish day so far for risk assets, with the Brexit talks making headlines yet again. European assets are under pressure, since the chances of a deal are fading, while there seems no progress in the EU-Italy debate either.

Equities in Europe are down significantly, lagging the other key markets, but the Euro and the Pound are behaving the weakest, with the common currency hitting a new 16-month low against the Dollar, and the GBP/USD getting close to 1.28 yet again.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The break below 1.13 in the EUR/USD that we have been anticipating could be a key move in forex markets, especially if it’s followed by a quick move towards the 1.10 level. For now, a failed breakdown is still a possibility here, but given the strong broader downtrend, odds favor further new lows in the pair in the coming weeks, together with new highs in the Dollar Index, which also rallied to its highest level since mid-2017 today in early trading.

The next major support zone is found near 1.1125 in the most traded forex pair, while resistance is still ahead near 1.1440 and 1.15.

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

US stock futures are also pointing slightly lower after Friday’s selloff, but the pre-market losses are muted, and the resilience of the major indices could point to, at least, an initial rally after the opening bell. Today, trading volumes could be lower-than-average on Wall Street, due to the US bank holiday, but given the technical setup, we could be in for an interesting session.

The major indices are at a crucial juncture, as a move towards the October lows could confirm the deeper bearish shift in the US that already took hold of the majority of global markets, while a less likely rally to new swing highs could set up a test of the all-time highs, at least in the relatively stronger indices, the Dow and the S&P 500.

Oil Bounces but Gold Fails to Recover Despite Risk-Off Shift

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While global equities have been mixed today before the US open, the distinct weakness in Europe points to another leg lower in the broader downtrend, and the DAX could be the most important laggard in the coming days again. While the German index is still well above its recent lows, it is also clearly below the 12,000 level that marked the potential long-term breakdown, which could be the start of a bear market.

The coming days could be crucial in deciding the fate of the current swing, which could define the end of the year across asset classes. For now, markets are quiet, with the main volatility measures being well below the levels seen in October, but should the bearish move accelerate, things could quickly get heated again, as soon as the second half of this week.

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities are having a mixed day as well, with crude oil being well in the green, but with gold and copper failing to rally in the face of the Dollar’s rally. The WTI crude contract rallied above $61 per barrel in early trading, while gold fell as low as $1204, extending the breakdown of last week, as safe-haven flows weren’t enough to hold the precious metal.

All eyes are still on the $1215 level, and should gold remain below that short-term resistance, the test of the $1180 level would be likely. Bulls would need a quick rebound to keep the October break-out alive, even gold continues to outperform most of the other safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese Yen and US Treasuries.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 392 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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