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Analysis: Money is Still Pouring In – Bitcoin, Litecoin, Stellar Lumens, Augur, Dash and Ethereum

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As you all must know by now, I am a trader at heart, not an investor.  It’s always been difficult for me to buy-and-hold, because I feel like I can see where corrections will take place, so why not sell if you know its coming?

But these last few days I am having a slight change of heart.  There is so much money pouring into the cryptocoins, and there is no reason to believe that will stop soon.  In fact, the amount of money pouring into there might just keep on increasing for years.

Case in point.  Bitcoin.  The last 2 times I saw a selloff was due, they both occurred, but were very weak corrections.  That can only mean that there are a lot of buyers out there.  Not like the old days when there was a small handful of crypto-traders.  At that time, when a correction occurred there were no more buyers left – everyone was all in – and price plummeted.

So who are these new buyers?  It doesn’t matter, but it seems likely that many of them have never heard of the altcoins. Last week they want to buy Bitcoin at $1800, but neglected Litecoin and his siblings at far cheaper prices.  I don’t think that this ignorance will continue forever.  One day in the not-distant future money will likely be pouring into the altcoins as well.

So it occurs to me that now the smart thing to do is just buy a ton of cheap coins, the ones that are moving, and sit on them.  For example for every 10,000 XLM or XRP one buys, every 1 cent rise in price is worth $100.  Is there anyone who doubts that the price of these coins will be more than $1 by the end of the year?  They might be closer to $10 or $20.  What if you bought 500,000 or a million of them while they are still cheap?  That’s what the so-called Bitcoin whales did 5-6 years ago.  With 500,000 of these cheap coins, every 1 cent rise is $5,000.

It seems like those of us lucky enough to be on this train at this juncture have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

Like I said, it has taken a truly profound realization that we are in the beginnings of what might be a monster multi-year bull market to make me realize that investing is a better option than trading …

Speaking for myself, I will likely not short any market.  When I see a correction coming I will look to buy more if I can, at lower prices.  Its like we are in 1977 and buying yahoo and Microsoft stock at $1 a share, particularly in the case of the still really cheap altcoins that are seeing some volume.

DASH

DASH has been superglued to a 3rd arc pair for some time now.  It is one right side of the pair now. Perhaps falling to the top of the square will be enough to shake it free.

Ethereum Classic

ETC has been moribund since hitting the 3rd arc.  When it gets to the arc again, let’s see what she does.

Ethereum

ETH has been stuck in an arc pair for some time.  But it appears that she will be forced to either break up or break down.  My guess is she will break upwards.

Litecoin

LTC corrected at the end of a square.  She will test that 4th arc again soon.  My guess is she will penetrate it.

Augur

Augur has had plenty of time to advance since clearing the last arc.  The fact that she has not means she probably will continue moving sideways to the next arc.

Bitcoin

XBT corrected at the 3rd arc of this setup as expected.  But it was/is a weak correction. My guess is that the arc will yield on the next test.  Next resistances are $2600 (4th arc) and $3600 (5th arc).

Stellar Lumens

I like Stellar Lumens.  I see that the 2nd arc has been a problem though. If the next test of the arc fails, price will likely fall.  If it does, I will use the opportunity to buy more.

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsJim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here. If you do well as a result of suggestions made here, feel free to say thank you :) BTC: 1FUq3GB1Q8zz2JpuBr7YHzVBKnaWoxgmya Follow him on Twitter (@jimfred1276) or email him at jimfred1276 at gmail.




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36 Comments

36 Comments

  1. Gabriel

    May 14, 2017 at 11:54 am

    On point as always.
    When the price of a few alts went down recently, I did wonder whether to sell and buy again after the correction, but I didn’t see the point, as the corrections were quickly overcome. The principles of value investing apply perfectly in the current environment. Buying great assets at very cheap price… What else would you need?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 14, 2017 at 12:29 pm

      I know you are correct on this point. For myself, I must struggle to change old habits…

      • jarosatori

        May 14, 2017 at 1:11 pm

        So you’re proposing to sell XRP at this point and wait for cheaper price? How serious the correction of XLM could be in your opinion?

        • Jim Fredrickson

          May 14, 2017 at 2:43 pm

          I only tell you what I see. Sometimes I see things correctly, sometimes I miss things. What traders do with my thoughts is of course up to them.
          XLM has just made a bullish move after a long sideways move. (I hate sideways moves the most, personally. It is so very easy to get lost.) But after a bearish fakeout, the 2nd arc that has stopped XLM for quite some time has apparently yielded. The candle has not closed yet, but the penetration is convincing.
          As for XRP, I see a short term bearish case, and a longer term bullish case.

          • jarosatori

            May 14, 2017 at 8:43 pm

            Thank you very much for answer. How much time is “long sideway move”? 🙂 Today XLM hit almost 0.041 USD per token on kraken – was this the test of 2nd arc?

  2. tadej

    May 14, 2017 at 12:23 pm

    There is a lot of analysis out there predicting XRP fall. The picture I see is that XRP is quite strong and will continue to rise for the reasons mentioned in the beginning of the article. What do you think?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 14, 2017 at 12:27 pm

      I see your point. There is a bullish case to be made for XRP. But I also see a bear case, though the bear case is short term. Longer term there is not much doubt that the XRP price will be much higher in a month’s time. (imho)

      • iamniks

        May 14, 2017 at 8:56 pm

        I know that you are not a big fan of rumors, however, it is very likely that Ripple will announce tokens lock-up on May 22 during the Consensus conference (https://twitter.com/coindesk/status/859105209854906373). This means an instant increase in value due to decreased amount of tokens in the system. So if there would be a bearish move, I’d use it to buy as much as possible during this week and sit quietly 🙂 What do you think?

  3. hanjit@connoisseurs.com.my

    May 14, 2017 at 1:22 pm

    Hi Jim,

    Thanks for the update. Its always a good thing hearing your opinion on these cryptocurrencies.

    Regarding Stellar, do you see iyho , these gems will one day be giants?

    Have a good week ahead.

  4. MSNP05

    May 14, 2017 at 5:43 pm

    How do I buy XRP and stellar lumens as I cannot buy those from coinbase ?

    • MaxButya

      May 14, 2017 at 6:10 pm

      Hey, you can register on Poloenix and buy these coins there!

    • gullyfoyle

      May 14, 2017 at 8:42 pm

      They are also available on Kraken. I prefer to trade alts on polo and XRP, XML, XMR on Kraken, spreading the risk as it were between exchanges.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 15, 2017 at 12:26 am

      Inconvenient, I know, but you could open an account at an exchange that offers them? I trade at kraken. You can buy them there.

      • MSNP05

        May 16, 2017 at 7:09 am

        Unfortunately i live in WA state in US and both Kraken and Polenix are banned here.. is there another exchange where i can purchase these ?

        • Jim Fredrickson

          May 16, 2017 at 7:13 am

          Can’t you just use a vpn and get to kraken through a different country’s ip? I imagine that would be a quick and relatively easy solution??

  5. gullyfoyle

    May 14, 2017 at 8:49 pm

    As much as I want to believe the multi-year bull market talk. My logical side is screaming at me to be careful here. Are we in exuberance? I don’t know. The landscape is different than 2013. There are more technologies being developed and it seems that pricefinding is in the offing.
    Despite elevation, your suggestion to snag up cheap coins on good projects could do well.

  6. Ershad

    May 15, 2017 at 12:30 am

    Hi Jim,

    As always thanks for the great analysis really am greatufl, I wanted to ask can you recommend the top 3 cheap altcoins to buy while their cheap? Also I sold my XRP for the time being but looking to get back into XRP as soon as you give the signal.

    Kind regards
    Ershad

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 15, 2017 at 1:48 am

      If XRP makes a high above the last two tops (~.23) then it seems the danger will have passed. I note that the coin did turn down at the end of square as seemed likely, but did not fall hard. Its possible that it was a false alarm.

      • iamniks

        May 15, 2017 at 5:36 am

        It is 24.5 now:( What is the best place to put buy order now?

        • Jim Fredrickson

          May 15, 2017 at 5:40 am

          so close to the ATH now that i would wait for a rise/close above the ath. but i’m not here to give such detailed advice on a regular basis. I am getting uncomfortable with this level of hand-holding…

          • iamniks

            May 15, 2017 at 7:10 am

            Sorry for that, thank you for your suggestions and good work. Everyone here appreciate it!

  7. rednivad

    May 15, 2017 at 6:47 am

    I am new in Cryptocurrency and have recently started investing in the same. The biggest success for me is Ripple where I invested $700 last Thursday and now it is $1000.

    I am very lame and dont know where to invest. I have kept a budget of $3000 for investment. Please can you recommend few currencies to invest?

    I also bought some currency for Doge, do you think it has potential to grow to $1?

    I will wait for your reply.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 16, 2017 at 12:03 am

      DOGE (XDG) has been rallying a bit. I own some too. I’m not sure how far it can go because there are so very many coins out there. But, who knows?

  8. chorez

    May 15, 2017 at 3:27 pm

    Hey Jim, can you go more into detail on that arc theory, that you are relying on? can you explain it maybe in an article or provide some further reading?

    Thanks

    • gullyfoyle

      May 15, 2017 at 6:12 pm

      It’s Gann angles/arcs. Lots of info available online.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 16, 2017 at 12:08 am

      As gullyfoyle points out, it is Gann angles and arcs. But they have been put together in a nifty tool developed by Eduardo Altman of gunner24.com.

  9. rednivad

    May 16, 2017 at 12:12 am

    Ltc is down do you think it is good time to buy?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 16, 2017 at 1:04 am

      Depends. Long-term its a great buy at these prices (imho). Short-term I think it might drop a bit more.

  10. karthikg82

    May 16, 2017 at 1:49 am

    Hi Jim,
    How do you see today’s correction in LTC after the segwit activation?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 16, 2017 at 7:03 am

      I am glad to hear about segwit, but don’t think you can use news like that for short-term trading. long-term it is likely relevant, but as you can see, traders, if anything, sold the news. one of the reasons i don’t use news to trade.
      ltc likely has a few more dollars to correct.

  11. rednivad

    May 16, 2017 at 7:23 am

    Hi Jim all the currency is down except stellar and ripple. Which currency to invest in short term? would you suggest trade Doge with LTC/PPC?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 16, 2017 at 7:29 am

      XDG is doing well. I own some, but wonder how high it can go, when there are so many billions of coins issued? But it might pull off a good rally despite that? its possible.

  12. rednivad

    May 16, 2017 at 7:41 am

    Thanks Jim Do you see growth potential in PPC in short term? And regarding LTC at what point should we buy?

  13. SuccessHappinessFreedom@gmail.com

    May 16, 2017 at 2:49 pm

    Litecoin down to $24USD? should I buy more or sell out?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 17, 2017 at 12:19 am

      IMHO this is a time and price to start buying LTC, not sell it.

      • SuccessHappinessFreedom@gmail.com

        May 17, 2017 at 12:25 am

        Thank YOU!! I truly appreciate your perspective.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Market Remains Weak Despite Ripple’s Surge

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Ripple made headlines today in the cryptocurrency segment, as the third largest coin jumped by more than 15% after trading in a narrow range for several days. Most of the major coins joined the rally, but the gains were muted and the technical setup remained unchanged in most cases, with the long-term outlook still being bearish, while the short-term picture remaining mixed.

Ethereum, which has been in the center of the trends in the segment for weeks rallied back above $200, but stayed below the recent swing high, leaving several questions unanswered concerning the short-term trend. Bitcoin also got stuck near the $6275 level yet again, and the total value of the market is still below the $200 billion mark, with still no clear signs of major capital inflows in the segment.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum quickly recovered above $200 after dipping below the weekend lows yesterday in late trading, retaining the short-term buy signal in our trend model. That said the coin still needs to show stronger bullish momentum to avoid a resumption of the clearly declining long-term trend. As sustained dip below $200 would still warn of a move to last week’s lows, while a move above $235 would open up the way towards $260 and the confluence resistance near $275.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin has been showing weakness in the last couple of days, and although the coin is still on a short-term buy signal, similarly to Ethereum, a quick recovery above $6500 would be needed to avoid a bearish turn.

Traders should hold on to their positions here, but given the still bearish segment-wide trends, we still don’t advise full positions even in the stronger coins. Below $6275, weaker support is found at $6000, close to the key long-term zone near $5850, while resistance is ahead at $6500, $6750, and $7000.

Ripple Needs Follow Through For a Buy Signal

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While today’s spike in Ripple is encouraging, the coin needs to show further signs of strength, as the recent sudden spikes in the majors were quickly sold as the bearish trend remained dominant in the segment.

With that in mind, despite the broken resistance levels, XRP remains on a neutral short-term signal in our trend model, while still being bearish from a long-term perspective. The coin is currently trading right at the $0.32 level, with support found at $0.3130, $0.30 and near $0.30, while strong resistance is ahead at $0.35.

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is among the stronger coins from a short-term technical standpoint, trading in a bullish consolidation pattern just below the key $200 level. That said, the coin failed to show strength today amid Ripple’s rally, and that still points to a dominant bearish trend in the segment. With that in mind, traders should wait for further positive signs before entering new positions, especially since a bullish leadership still hasn’t developed.

IOT/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA is still weaker than average, together with NEO, EOS, and ETC, and the coin is still just above the August lows, clearly being in a broad downtrend, despite holding up above the lower boundary of its short-term range. A test of the lows is likely in the coming weeks, and the coin remains on sell signals on both time-frames, with support found between $0.455 and $0.475, and near $0.405, and with key resistance ahead near $0.57 and $0.64.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 347 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

NIO Means Tesla Monopoly Ends

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By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets

On Sep 12, NIO made its IPO on the NYSE, which is a very important event for all automotive investors. Founded in 2014 by William Lee, NIO is one of the first companies to compete with Tesla in the premium electric car segment. NIO is based in Shanghai, China, and it already got investment support from such renowned companies as Baidu, Lenovo, Temasek, Tencent, Sequoia, and others.

There are currently over 4,000 employees at NIO.

In June 2018, the company started selling NIO ES8; currently, 481 electric cars have been sold and 17,000 more have been pre-ordered. This is Tesla Model X’s direct competition, while its price is twice as low thanks to some good support from the Chinese government, which is interested in promoting electric cars.

NIO ES8 starts from $67,000 (basic configuration). It has two engines of 635 horsepowers and can ride 355 km before charging. A good difference from Tesla is an option to use replaceable batteries; the monthly subscription is $193, and it takes just around 3 minutes to replace a battery. Tesla planned to offer this option, too, but did not implement it.

The underwriters of NIO at NYSE were BofA Merrill Lynch, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and UBS. The initial price per share was $6.26. During the first day, 160M of shares were sold, which allowed NIO to get around $1B and get a place in top US IPO’s rating in 2018.

During the first day, the share price increased to $7, while the next day it jumped above $13, allowing investors to make over 100% profit. This shows investors are very much interested in the company, perhaps because of the good pre-IPO promotion. Before buying NIO shares now, though, one should wait first for the volatility to calm down.

Comparing Tesla and NIO is not the best job now, as Tesla already has over 14-year experience; however, this comparison may well become valid in a year or two, when more data arrive. While NIO is just starting out, its management may make accidental mistakes.

The lockup period (the period during which investors are not allowed to sell their shares) is 180d, which may additionally support the price, while after that the Q2 results will come out. Among NIO’s advantages, one may name government support as one of the biggest. While the trade war between the US and China is here to stay, the demand is high, and company may cater to Chinese customers first. When it starts conquering the US market, though, the conflict may have already come to an end. The company also admits that the customs duties may indirectly influence the car prices.

The issues NIO might face are already known, and the most obvious one is that of meeting the demand. Over the first 6 months of 2018, NIO had a loss of $502M, while the profit earned afterwards is currently just $7M.

Another risk is in the news that Tesla has come to an agreement with Shanghai authorities to build a car factory in the city, which means high competition for NIO. Still, NIO is likely to win thanks to the price, as the parts for Tesla are produced in the US only, and they are subject to customs duties.

NIO management also announced they had had no mass electric car production experience before, and this may have negative influence on the company growth – an issue already overcome by Tesla. Finally, for ES8, there are around 1,700 used coming from 160 vendors; with so many suppliers, delays in shipments may become quite a common thing.

Many things depend on how NIO is going to rise its production volume and how true the declarations of the management are. Previously, we’ve seen how Elon Musk’s words were sometimes very different from what happened in fact.

One of the key topics here is financing, as the development will require a lot of money. Even Tesla has failed to book net profits so far, its losses and debts still growing.

NIO shares are likely to rise in the short term, as investors will be playing on the fact the company is quite promising at first sight. Other conclusions may be only made after there are at least some financial data at hand.

Technically, there are two support levels for NIO: one at $7 and another at $9.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 7 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, I went on to continue my education in post graduate. Later I worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped me to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. I'm a pro in the financial field and the author of articles for various international media. I also hold the position of Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.




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Analysis

Pre-Market: Sell The Rumor, Buy The News?

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After a long period of uncertainty, the US finally decided to commence with the second round of tariffs directed at China, slapping a 10% levy on $200 billion worth of goods, and threatening with tariffs on another $267 billion of goods in case of a Chinese retaliation. The tariffs will increase to 25% in 2019, but for now, the Chinese response was measured, with only an announcement coming from the Chinese ministry of commerce, saying that the country has no choice but to retaliate.

Shanghai Composite, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While stock futures fell initially following the after-hours announcement by Donald Trump, today equities are slightly higher across the board, with even the Shanghai Composite staging a rally off its fresh bear market low. The new tariffs were widely expected by the market, so the “buy-the-news” response is understandable, but for a sustained rally in Chinese assets, a resumption of the trade talks between the two largest economies would likely be needed.

DAX 30 Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The main European indices are little changed with the DAX still hovering around the 12,000 level and the EuroStoxx 50 being stuck ear 3350. Both benchmarks hit three-week highs in early trading, but the rally on the Old Continent is still lacking real momentum, especially given the distance to the bull market highs.

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Emerging markets are still very weak with the recent bounce being barely visible on the charts, and the segment is still stuck in a strong downtrend, with especially the most vulnerable countries weighing heavily. Emerging market currencies are mixed today, with the Turkish Lira completely erasing its rate hike gains, but with the Brazilian Real, the Chinese Yuan, and the Argentinean Peso being relatively stable after the US trade announcement.

S&P 500 Index Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stocks are set to open slightly in the green on Wall Street, with the major indices still being within striking distance of their all-time highs, and with only the Nasdaq pulling back meaningfully recently. The S&P 500 is just a tad below its record high, and with the MACD indicator back in neutral territory, a move to new highs could still be just around the corner.

Dollar Stable as Oil Jumps Amid Syria Escalation

Interestingly forex markets remained stable despite the trade war escalation, with the Dollar drifting slightly lower compared to its major peers, and losing a bit more ground against the main China-related currencies. Commodities are also higher today, with especially the China-linked copper and crude oil being in the green and gold trading virtually unchanged.

WTI Crude Oil Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the scope of the Syrian conflict shrank in recent months, the tensions around the last rebel stronghold Idlib are rising. Russia and Turkey (which back opposing forces) surprisingly announced the formation of a demilitarized zone around the city to avoid a siege and a likely bloodbath, but overnight, a Russian recon plane was downed, which could lead to a reescalation in the country.

Russia is blaming Israeli forces for the casualty, and an open conflict between the two countries would be increase risks in the region, and possibly drive oil prices higher. The Brent Oil contract has been already outperforming the WTI one thanks to the sanctions against Iran, and today Saudi officials stated that the Kingdom is comfortable with the $80 per barrel Brent price, further widening the divergence between the two contracts.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 347 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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