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Analysis: Ethereum and Monero Shine as Crypto Market Tops $120 Billion

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The cryptocurrency segment experienced some rotation after the first day of the week, as BTC showed some relative weakness following its strong break-out during the weekend. The most valuable coin still inched higher, and it got close to the $3500 level for the first time ever, but Ethereum, Monero, and NEM all gained more. BTC remains short-term overbought, but the currency hasn’t been hurt too much by the strong bounce in Bitcoin Cash, which got back to $350, as volatile trading continues in the forked coin.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The divergence between the weaker and stronger majors remained apparent, as ETC and Ripple continued to trade sideways, still failing to join the rally. Dash and Litecoin also lack short-term bullish momentum, but both coins have a stronger long-term setup to encourage traders. The overall market mood is still positive and the sector is back at all-time highs regarding capitalization, although BTC is looking slightly stretched and taking on new long-term positions is not recommended here. Let’s take a look at the technical setup of the other majors.

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Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

ETH is getting close to the most likely target of the current short-term move near $285, with the MACD indicator edging towards overbought readings. The coin has confirmed the trend change last week, and the token is finally is finally showing relative strength. That said, the all-time highs are still $120 away, and with the long-term momentum still only being neutral, more buying opportunities are likely ahead after the next short-term consolidation.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is still trading in very narrow range right at the $46 level, holding to its gains from last week.  A move towards $50 and the prior high above $56 is still likely, and the long-term range projection target remains just below $60.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is right at the $200 resistance today, as it bounced back off the declining short-term trendline overnight. A break-out from the consolidation pattern is still likely, which would point to the re-test of the prior high above $220, with short- and long-term momentum indicators still being in neutral territory, and the coin being on a buy signal.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP continued to drift lower in a narrow range after breaching the 0.18 level during the weekend, remaining among the weakest majors. The long-term correction pattern is still intact, but the price is quickly approaching the declining trendline. Crucial resistance is ahead at $0.22 with support found at $0.16.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

ETC is also trading in a narrow range, failing to move above the $16 and $18 resistance levels. The long-term picture is still bullish, but a break-out of the declining trend would be needed to confirm the rally. Primary support is around the $14 level, providing a solid base for the token.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero reached above $52 today, still being one of the strongest coins, and trading just 10% off its all-time lows. While the short-term picture is getting overbought a rally to $58 is in the cards, but short-term traders should wait with new positions, and reduce exposure here. Support levels are now found at $50, $46, and near $42.

NEM

NEM/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEM remains bullish both short- and long-term although it failed to rally past the previous high on the BTC chart near 0.00009. That said, the break-out is intact and a move to 0.00010 is still the most likely scenario. Storng support is found at 0.000075, and below that near 0.00007.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Litecoin Continues Surge as Bitcoin Tests Highs

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With the crypto world being focused on the historical futures launch, the major coins all enjoyed buying following a hectic weekend, and a volatile week as a whole. BTC itself got another boost from the widespread publicity and the volatile correction of the recent days ended, with the most valuable coin bouncing back towards its all-time high.

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While the long-term picture remains severely overbought, the short-term picture is not stretched and further gains are possible even amid the elevated correction risk. That said, investors should wait for a more favorable entry point to ad dot their holdings, while traders should control position sizes in the light of the long-term setup. Major support levels are now near $13,000, $11,300, and $10,000, with stronger levels still at $8200 and $7700.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The major altcoins are all up today, but only Monero and Litecoin are still within short-term uptrends, and the segment as a whole is still dangerously overextended, and a deeper correction is very likely in the coming weeks. LTC continued its recent break-out, getting close to the $200 level, and joining the extremely overbought group regarding the long-term momentum, and triggering a long-term sell signal in our trend model. Key support levels are found $100 at $75 and $64, with a weaker primary level at $125.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Long-Term Analysis of the Silver Market

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Silver

The silver market has once again caught investors’ interest as the price is nearing areas not seen since late 2008.

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2017 started at a low point for silver, and it seems it will end the year that way as well, meaning investors who bought at the beginning of the year haven’t suffered nor gained much.

This doesn’t mean, however, that the price hasn’t moved during the year. After the low start of the year, silver quickly tacked on about 18% to a top of $17.50 per ounce.

In terms of fundamentals in the silver market, things look a bit complicated for 2018. There are multiple forces pulling in different directions for the price of silver going forward:

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Positives

  • A sharp stock market correction can be expected to occur some time in 2018. Most likely, this will happen sooner rather than later. Stock market crashes always trigger a flight to safety, meaning gold, silver, and quite possibly bitcoin, can benefit.
  • We are seeing signs that inflation may be starting to rise again, although this is not confirmed yet. Rising inflation is always good for precious metals.
  • If the US federal budget deficit widens as a result of the new tax reform, the US dollar may suffer as a consequence. Goldman Sachs put out a note to investors in November 2017 saying that the US debt is “on track” to reach an “unsustainable” level in coming years. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has also said about the US debt that it is “the type of thing that should keep people awake at night.” Rising debt levels creates uncertainty about the economy, which is generally good for gold and silver.

Negatives

  • Central banks around the world seem committed to raise interest rates in 2018. Rising interest rates are bad for precious metals because it would make it more attractive to put money in the bank.
  • The cryptocurrency bull market is on track to continue, diverting attention and capital away from precious metals as a traditional store of value. However, this one is uncertain, as it may also be considered a positive in the way that the rise of cryptocurrencies brings the inflationary and unsustainable nature of fiat currencies into focus.
  • The US dollar may have hit a bottom in 2017 and trade higher compared to other major fiat currencies going into 2018. A stronger dollar is always bad for precious metals, which are priced in dollars.

Silver chart

When looking at the chart, we can see that silver is back down to were it started the year, which coincides with a major support area where it has turned several times in the past few years.

From a technical perspective, silver has been trading in a triangle pattern on the longer-term weekly chart, with the price now trading very near the lower end of the triangle, adding confluence to our bias that silver will trade up from here.

Silver failed to live up to our prediction from early 2017, and is now even trading well below the level from that time.

A low price by any measure combined with two major technical support levels adds confidence to our trade and makes silver a low risk and potentially high reward trade for 2018.

Depending on your own strategy and investment style, you may want to wait for the price to break out from the current triangle pattern it has been trading in for the past year and a half. You would then give up some of the potential return for an even safer trade. After that, major resistance is found around $17.50 and $18, with lots of upside potential if we can finally break through those levels.

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Look Out Below?

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After last week’s observation that a major top is in or near in the segment, the Bitcoin surge continued for almost a week, with Thursday’s wild session taking the coin as high as $19,000 (the article uses Bitstamp prices) on some exchanges. While the currency already pulled back by more than 20% the long-term picture is still extremely overbought and a much deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks.

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BTC spiked below $13,000 today, violating the primary weak support at $13,300, with further levels now at $11,300, $10,000 and $9000, but stronger support only found at $8200 and $7700. Next week’s futures launch could cause another jump in trading activity, and volatility is expected to remain very high amid the likely correction.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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While not all altcoins participated in the, supposedly, last part of the rally, IOTA, Monero, and towards the end of the week Litecoin, also stretched above all conventional targets with IOTA also turning exponential after a deal with Microsoft. The coin exploded by more than 350% before entering an initial sharp correction, breaking the steepest short-term uptrend. Strong support is only found at $3 and $1.5, but potential Fibonacci support is at $2.35.

IOT/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Let’s see how the long-term charts of the other altcoins look after the crazy week.

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