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Analysis: Bitcoin is weak, Litecoin and Ethereum look strong

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Analysis: Bitcoin is weak, Litecoin and Ethereum look strong

Introduction

This article was posted on Thursday, 11:30, UTC.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin had been puzzling me. I had expected a more robust week for this coin but there it was – just staying still. There is an energy date for the coin due today, which I had been thinking might be a high at 1320 or perhaps 1440. On closer inspection of the chart I saw that there was a long wick on an obscure candle which could have been used to size my setup (red arrow). When I re-sized my setup using that candle, suddenly the picture looked very different. Per this setup, price has been stuck at a 3rd arc pair for several days. Further, if this daily bar closes red in a few hours, the possibility of a reversal is high. My advice is take care if you are long BTC.

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Litecoin

Litecoin sprang back to life yesterday. Apparently the top of the square was the support it had been looking for. Price is currently still in the 1st arc pair on this setup, so technically there is not yet a buy signal. But intuitively it does seem we will get one shortly. The next arc pair is at ~$17, the top of the square is at $18, and the 3rd arc pair is at $25.

Ethereum

Ethereum also broke out of it’s sideways movement yesterday. It just poked above the 2nd of the arc pair (3rd arc pair) before retreating. Again, no buy signal yet, but the signal will likely come soon. The 4th arc pair is at ~$65. The 5th arc pair is at $85.

ETHXBT

Logic would suggest that if ETH is poised to rally, and XBT looks weak, then ETHXBT must look pretty good. So I looked at that chart and indeed, it looks sweet.

As you can see, there was a brief rally recently which closed just at the 2nd of the 4th arc pair. The latest candle opened just on the sunny side. While not yet a buy signal (we need a close on the sunny side), the odds are quite high that it will close above the arc pair in just a few hours. The top of the square is at .52 and the the 5th arc pair is up around 0.8.

 

Remember: The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment. Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

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Jim Fredrickson

Jim Fredrickson

Jim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here. If you do well as a result of suggestions made here, feel free to say thank you :) BTC: 1FUq3GB1Q8zz2JpuBr7YHzVBKnaWoxgmya Follow him on Twitter (@jimfred1276) or email him at jimfred1276 at gmail.

Comments
  • user

    AUTHOR phucphan

    Posted on 11:44 am April 13, 2017.

    HI Jim, How about ZEC? I keep alots ZEC from last post 🙂

    • user

      AUTHOR Jim Fredrickson

      Posted on 12:00 am April 14, 2017.

      Yes, that move from $53 to $80 was sweet, but ended too quickly. I a still of the opinion that there is another run left in her to $92+, but of course I don’t know for sure. I would not be a seller at these levels though. More likely a buyer. Good luck.

      • user

        AUTHOR Jim Fredrickson

        Posted on 12:15 am April 14, 2017.

        I should add, it depends if you are leveraged. If you are, that changes my opinion. If you are, you might lighten the position, since it could still go back to re-test $58…

        • user

          AUTHOR phucphan

          Posted on 5:23 am April 14, 2017.

          Thanks Jim, I’ve sold out and bought ETH. Have a nice day!

  • user

    AUTHOR And

    Posted on 12:40 pm April 13, 2017.

    Thanks Jim 😉

  • user

    AUTHOR Ershad

    Posted on 12:52 pm April 13, 2017.

    Hi Jim,

    Regarding ETH, what would you recommend a good selling price would be? Also what would you say a good buy price would be?
    Also are we expecting any movements in XRP?
    Thanks
    Ershad

    • user

      AUTHOR Jim Fredrickson

      Posted on 12:03 am April 14, 2017.

      There is alot of resistance ~ $52. Might be a good idea to take some off the table there. If it gets through there it could get to $65.

  • user

    AUTHOR Chanh2308

    Posted on 2:22 am April 14, 2017.

    Hi Jim,
    Can you show good selling price and cut-loss price for every coin that you analyse?
    Thanks Jim.

    • user

      AUTHOR Jim Fredrickson

      Posted on 3:49 am April 14, 2017.

      The problem with that proposal is they are so radically different depending on your timeframe. Someone trading 15 minute bars will have VASTLY different buying/selling targets than someone trading the daily charts. The same holds true for stop losses…

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