Analysis: Bitcoin is weak, Litecoin and Ethereum look strong


Bitcoin had been puzzling me. I had expected a more robust week for this coin but there it was – just staying still. There is an energy date for the coin due today, which I had been thinking might be a high at 1320 or perhaps 1440. On closer inspection of the chart I saw that there was a long wick on an obscure candle which could have been used to size my setup (red arrow). When I re-sized my setup using that candle, suddenly the picture looked very different. Per this setup, price has been stuck at a 3rd arc pair for several days. Further, if this daily bar closes red in a few hours, the possibility of a reversal is high. My advice is take care if you are long BTC.


Litecoin sprang back to life yesterday. Apparently the top of the square was the support it had been looking for. Price is currently still in the 1st arc pair on this setup, so technically there is not yet a buy signal. But intuitively it does seem we will get one shortly. The next arc pair is at ~$17, the top of the square is at $18, and the 3rd arc pair is at $25.


Ethereum also broke out of it’s sideways movement yesterday. It just poked above the 2nd of the arc pair (3rd arc pair) before retreating. Again, no buy signal yet, but the signal will likely come soon. The 4th arc pair is at ~$65. The 5th arc pair is at $85.


Logic would suggest that if ETH is poised to rally, and XBT looks weak, then ETHXBT must look pretty good. So I looked at that chart and indeed, it looks sweet.

As you can see, there was a brief rally recently which closed just at the 2nd of the 4th arc pair. The latest candle opened just on the sunny side. While not yet a buy signal (we need a close on the sunny side), the odds are quite high that it will close above the arc pair in just a few hours. The top of the square is at .52 and the the 5th arc pair is up around 0.8.


Remember: The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment. Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Jim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here. If you do well as a result of suggestions made here, feel free to say thank you :) BTC: 1FUq3GB1Q8zz2JpuBr7YHzVBKnaWoxgmya Follow him on Twitter (@jimfred1276) or email him at jimfred1276 at gmail.