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Analysis: Bitcoin Energy Point is Today (+ Litecoin, Ethereum, Augur, Monero, Zcash & Ripple)

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has been rallying for what seems like forever, but there is a fairly significant set of resistances in the chart that will likely be reached today or tomorrow.  A long-term 5th arc (black) and shorter-term arcs (the green 2nd arc will likely yield, but the next two will likely have a lot of stopping power, especially the last one.  The 3rd arc and 5th arcs intersect exactly at energy point.  Energy point is TODAY.  Likely not a coincidence.

Ethereum Classic

Ethereum Classic has had a decent rally, we now have a target of  ~ $8.5

Ethereum

Last time we took a close look at ETH it was bouncing off support at 90.  Wow – what a difference a day makes.  Traders should take some profits soon.  IMHO this vertical rally will not last much longer.

Litecoin

This coin has been a bit of a disappointment. It rallied where expected, but the rally has so far been very weak.  Support is likely to be found at the 1×1 angle (highlighted).

Augur

REP has been moving sideways a long time, but it is reaching both the end of the setup and an energy point.  Watch it carefully…

Monero

XMR has rallied back to its high of several weeks ago. If it can close above the arc, the 3rd arc will be the next target at ~$34.

Ripple

Ripple fell to the top of square, indicated by the arrow, exactly on the end of the square.  That was likely a good buying opportunity, as I tweeted at the time.

Zcash

ZEC is currently trading within a 2nd arc pair.  If/when it can close above the arc, a next target will be ~ $115.

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsJim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here. If you do well as a result of suggestions made here, feel free to say thank you :) BTC: 1FUq3GB1Q8zz2JpuBr7YHzVBKnaWoxgmya Follow him on Twitter (@jimfred1276) or email him at jimfred1276 at gmail.




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23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. ridesisapis

    May 20, 2017 at 11:06 am

    shouldn’t we hear buy signal for ETH as of yesterday? it was extremely painful, especially for newbies watching the graph as last articles has suggested “i would not buy this yet” and than wait for “104$” price target without immediate reaction from here

  2. majykman

    May 20, 2017 at 11:08 am

    What chart do you use/ where do you get them with this view? Thanks

  3. ridesisapis

    May 20, 2017 at 11:15 am

    are these bad news for ones who invested in ETH at yesterday’s top ~139 “IMHO this vertical rally will not last much longer” and LTC “This coin has been a bit of a disappointment” ? I really think that “staying sharp in todays market” was worth of a post here yesterday, don’t take me wrong

  4. ridesisapis

    May 20, 2017 at 11:16 am

    ~130$ sorry, anyway thanks for your posts and analysis, this things happen

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 20, 2017 at 12:34 pm

      $130 was given as a target for eth last week, I believe. It got to $129… As for LTC, it will likely do well in the not-distant future for those with a bit of patience.

      We all hate buying tops and selling bottoms, but we all do it from time to time. Me too.

      My columns here are not meant to dispense specific exit/entry points. There are too many markets for me to cover them all adequately. This is essentially a blog right? Also, I don’t know what readers trading objectives or timeframes are. Some trade 5 minute charts, some trade weekly charts.

      I will likely launch a new service in the not-distant future that will offer additional services for those who want/need more specific trading tips than are possible in a blog format.

      Follow me on twitter for now…

      • ridesisapis

        May 20, 2017 at 2:53 pm

        alright, many thanks for your response

  5. tja

    May 20, 2017 at 11:30 am

    Hi Jim,
    I’m new to this. Can you tell me, what an energy point means? What should I do, if it reaches an energy point? Thank you

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 20, 2017 at 12:36 pm

      Energy point is just a time when something is likely to happen. Think of it like a full moon or a fibonacci extension in time. Just a time-frame to be alert to a trading opportunity that might develop.

  6. Skidoo850

    May 20, 2017 at 11:45 am

    How do you think Ripple will go over the next few weeks?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 20, 2017 at 12:37 pm

      A new rally seems to have begun. Likely will make a new ATH, then correct hard. We will see…

  7. parmmd

    May 20, 2017 at 1:26 pm

    Hello. Thanks for your insight. Any comments on stellar lumens ? Whats a good price objective.?

    Thanks

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 20, 2017 at 1:45 pm

      I like Stellar. I am surprised it has been so quiet. It will wake up soon I imagine. Target of
      .085 seems reasonable to me.

  8. mzvyga

    May 20, 2017 at 1:35 pm

    Привет Jim , спасибо за твои публикации!!! они реально помогают зарабатывать.
    Ты делаешь большое дело и Бог наградит тебя своей благодатью))) ты делаешь счастливыми людей и эти эмоции и радость снисходят на тебя! Большое спасибо!!!!
    Thank you very much my friend!

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 20, 2017 at 2:37 pm

      Thank you for the kind words 🙂

  9. Iggy1994

    May 20, 2017 at 6:14 pm

    JIm, I made a mistake and purchased a bunch of BCN (Bytecoin) couple days when the market was up 280%, since next day it plunged to -40% but since has been slowly recovering and is now at +5%. should i hold?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 20, 2017 at 11:43 pm

      Bytecoin is not traded at kraken, so I don’t actively follow it. But I did a quick and dirty look at BCNXBT. While it is clear you bought a top, it also seems likely that if you can afford to hold it for awhile you will get your money back, and then some. May take a bit of time, but we aren’t talking years – weeks more likely.

  10. D1DT

    May 20, 2017 at 7:08 pm

    Great analysis as always Jim! (And great to hear you are considering a new/additional service) 😉

  11. thoth

    May 21, 2017 at 6:22 am

    Ewww

    I was trading loads of ETH between that .047-.051 only to move to LTC around .0135…

    Worked out well, Now I bag hold till next week or so in LTC

    LOL

  12. vishindia3006

    May 21, 2017 at 10:12 am

    Hey Jim. I’ve found your insights very helpful. Had a question. I have 0.6 btc. Should I trade it in any coin or keep it as such. My time frame is 3 months but can go longer. Currently I mainly have XRP and BTC and a few ETC, LTC, DCR, XEM and GNT. Please help. I don’t want to miss out on profits.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 22, 2017 at 1:31 am

      It’s an opinion question… IMHO 0.6 BTC has a better chance of doubling in the next 3 months in one of the altcoins. LTC, ETH, or XRP are all great longer term coins.

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Analysis

Pre-Market: Trade War Optimism Sparks Another Bounce in Stocks

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Global stocks are markedly higher today before the US open, Donald Trump’s quite aggressive negotiating seem to be paying off, at least with regards to China, as in the wake of the pronounced weakness in Chinese assets, and the notable slowdown in the economy, the country wants to reopen the talks with the US.

Shanghai Composite, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Shanghai Composite hit a new bear market low overnight before recovering above support into the close, and the Dollar’s rally also ran into resistance, thanks to the Yuan’s bounce of its fresh 13-month low. Emerging market assets are also somewhat higher today, with the help of the Turkish Lira’s continued bounce, but the segment is still deeply wounded technically, and more pain is almost inevitably ahead, as the negative trends still stand.

 

DAX Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Walmart’s great earnings report also fueled the pre-market rally in US futures, as the retail segment in the largest economy still seems to be doing just fine, despite the global woes. The major US indices are after an orderly looking correction, in stark contrast with their European and Asian peers, which are stuck in broader downtrends or even full-blown bear markets.

Nasdaq, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Yesterday’s tech selloff, which was triggered by the weak report of Chinese giant Tencent has almost been erased after the better than expected numbers of Cisco restored confidence in the market-leading segment. Nvidia (NVDA) will also report after the market close, and as the earnings season is drawing to a close, we can conclude that corporate profits had a blowout quarter in the US, even as cracks in the global economy appeared.

Momentum is still clearly on the side of the FAANGS and the whole US tech sector even after discounting Facebook’s recent plunge, but should the tightening cycle of the Fed continue to drain liquidity from financial markets and should the rising trend in rates persist, we expect valuations to suddenly matter soon.

Dollar Pulls Back

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The possible resumption of the US-Chinese trade talks sparked a, so far, weak correction, which also due from a technical standpoint, with the EUR/USD pair finding support near $1.13, and with the broader Dollar Index running into resistance near the 97 level. The rally in the reserve currency is no danger by any means, as the break-out is clearly intact, but a deeper pullback would help risk-assets in the coming days.

WTI Crude oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities are slightly higher thanks to the relief rally in emerging markets and the dip in the Dollar, but the previously stronger crude oil is just holding up above the $65 support, while gold is clearly below $1200, and copper couldn’t get back anywhere near yesterday’s break-down level close to $2.70.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 320 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Market Stabilizes but Bulls Not Out of the Woods

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The cryptocurrency segment looks much better than any time in the last 10 days, as the major coins managed to hold up above the liquidation lows hit on Tuesday. While the bounce stabilized the market, there is still substantial fragility following the steep selloff, and until further bullish moves, traders shouldn’t enter full positions.

That said, finally, there are signs of relative strength among the top coins as correlations are slightly lower, and some of the bearish leaders managed to recapture key resistance levels. Litecoin is trading right at the crucial $56 level, while Monero is above the $90 level, and as we noted before the exhaustion of their downtrend is a positive sign or the whole segment.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The bounce and the following stability triggered a few upgrades in our trend model after spending almost 1 month in the sell zone, but there are still no majors on a buy signal as the segment-wide downtrend remains intact. Bitcoin remains the strongest coin from a technical perspective, while Ethereum and Ripple, which showed weakness for weeks, are also in better shape, even as they face very strong resistance levels.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum managed to hold up above the $275-$280 level during the overnight pullback, and now it faces the $300 resistance level again, trying to build on the recent rally. While the short-term downtrend is intact, and the oversold longer-term momentum readings could fuel a rally in the coming weeks, but now the coin is in a structural bear market after the break below $400.

The coin is now neutral from a short-term standpoint, but a move below $275 would point to another test of the lows. Further resistance is ahead at $3335 and $360, while strong long-term support is at $260.

Bitcoin Still Below $6500 as XRP Nears $0.30

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Not much has changed for Bitcoin in recent days, but relatively speaking the largest coin showed significant strength. That said, until BTC doesn’t show bullish momentum, traders still shouldn’t enter positions, as the structurally important $5850 level is still not far below the current price level. A move above $6500 would trigger a short-term buy signal, but further strong resistance levels are ahead at $6750 and $7000, while support is still found at $6275 and $6000.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple and Ethereum are in very similar technical setups, and XRP is also facing strong resistance at $0.30 after finding support overnight near $0.275. After the panicky spike below $0.26, the odds of a durable increased, and should the coin stay above the overnight lows, the coin could avoid another short-term sell signal. While traders should still stay away from entering full positions here, a bottoming process might already be underway.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 320 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Ethereum Takes Baby Steps to Recovery as Global Markets Surge 10%

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Following the first serious rebound from the last week’s carnage the global market gained 10% overnight, pushing back through the $200 billion barrier after a brief dip to $190 billion yesterday.

Ethereum Price Recovery

The rebound was not distributed equally, with many of the altcoins which had previously lost the most now benefiting in turn. Ethereum made a strong push in the last twenty-fours as it climbed from a near year-long low of $254.56 up to the current range in the $280’s, where it sits at the time of writing.

The 11% gains for the day sound good, but amount to relatively little in dollar value considering how much the coin lost in recent weeks. At one point during the night ETH climbed to a unit price of $290 – but that’s as far as it could go during this particular twenty-four stretch.

The sudden surge over the last twenty-four hours wasn’t enough to take Ethereum to the £300 mark, although that could be achieved following another 5% growth. The current $284 price per ETH is still one of the lowest witnessed in the last 11 months, so there’s still plenty of scope for investors to jump on board.

Predictably, USDT trades are the most popular today, making up close to 20% of the daily total as a significant portion of ETH becomes un-tethered. Wash-trades, or transaction mining on multiple exchanges once again comes close to equalling the actual recorded daily volume of $1.8 billion.

Global Surge Re-Rearranges Altcoins

While nothing could be termed normal in the crypto world, several coins have returned to their former market cap positions from before the dip. EOS is back in 5th place after temporarily being ousted by Stellar, and Cardano has returned to 8th spot after briefly giving up its place to Tether.

TRON and IOTA are still lingering outside the top ten, with Monero holding strong in the 10th spot previously occupied by TRON, and then IOTA in recent times.

Correlation and Causation

You’ve probably seen the Google Trend charts which show an alignment between ‘cryptocurrency’ Google searches, and the total cryptocurrency market cap. Right now the search volume is as low as it has been since before the surge of 2017 – but that isn’t necessarily an indicator of a lack of interest. It just means that people aren’t typing the word ‘cryptocurrency’ (or Bitcoin, which has an immensely larger search volume) into Google any more.

It says nothing about the number of people checking CoinMarketCap every day, and it doesn’t let you know how many people have suddenly become interested again after seeing prices drop to such long-time lows.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 38 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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