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Analysis: Bitcoin Corrects Below $4750 as Ripple Rebounds

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As the SegWit2X hard fork seems less and less a threat to the original Bitcoin blockchain, the segment is settling down and the volatile swings in altcoins calmed down. BTC itself corrected lower after the relentless rise to $4900, and the coin is now trading near the $4750 level, with the short-term picture being slightly overbought. With no major resistance level ahead until $5000, the currency should at least test the all-time high in the coming days, and a break-out to new highs is the most likely scenario.  Key support is still found at $4650, $4400, and near $4150.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple remains the most active altcoin after the recent strong rally and the following correction, as the coin is still hovering around the crucial $0.26 level, well inside its rising trend. The rest of the majors are little changed since yesterday’s encouraging rebound, with Ethereum trading near $300, and the recently active NEO being stuck around $30. Bitcoin Cash continues to be under strong pressure, while Ethereum Classic is still the other major laggard. Let’s see the detailed short-term analysis.

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Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum continues to trade above the key $285 support after Monday’s spike lower, and the coin is holding on near the $300 level in the quiet environment. The long-term picture remains encouraging, and a rally towards the $330 level is likely in the coming week. The next target above that is at $380 while below $285, long-term support is at $250.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is still hovering around the $51 support/resistance level, as it continues to trade relatively weak compared to the other majors, still failing to provide a short-term buy signal. The coin faces strong resistance at $56 and $64, and with the long-term picture still showing oversold readings, the next likely major move is a rally towards the latter. Below $51 strong support is at $44 with the upper boundary fo the long-term base pattern at $38.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash continues to trade in the correction pattern that has been dominant since the late-August top, and the coin is stuck below primary resistance at $300 for now. The long-term trend is still clearly bullish, but further sideways price action is likely as the correction concludes. Support below $300 is at $265, while resistance is ahead at $330 and $360.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP is still very active, as the short-term uptrend remains intact, and the current correction is in line with a normal counter-trend move. With that in mind, a rally towards the next major target at $0.30 is likely in the coming period, after the correction concludes. Key support levels are now found at $0.24, $0.22, and $0.20.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic is trading in a short-term downtrend and it continues to show relative weakness compared to the other majors. We still advise short-term traders to stay away from opening new positions here, with crucial resistance ahead around the $13.50 level. Support levels are still found at $11 and $9, with short-term resistance now at $12.50.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero remains the most stable major regarding the short-term picture, as volatility is still very low and the coin is trading inside the rather lengthy correction pattern since the end of August. With the long-term picture still being encouraging, the digital currency is expected to break-out from the pattern soon, with key resistance levels ahead at $100 and $125, and support at $80 and $68.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO settled down somewhat near the crucial $30 level – and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its long-term rally – after a highly volatile period. The coin is now trading in a trading range after the furious rally that followed the China-induced crash. The long-term picture remains bullish but more consolidation is likely before the resumption of the rally, and a re-test of the $40 resistance. Another key level is ahead at $34 while support is found at $25.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA is trading inside the key $0.45-$0.48 support zone after the recent decline, but the long-term picture remains constructive, and we still expect a rally back to the $0.64 resistance in the coming weeks, with another level found below that at $0.56. Long-term support is found at $35, but we don’t expect a durable move below $0.45, and the current levels are still attractive for investors.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Litecoin Continues Surge as Bitcoin Tests Highs

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With the crypto world being focused on the historical futures launch, the major coins all enjoyed buying following a hectic weekend, and a volatile week as a whole. BTC itself got another boost from the widespread publicity and the volatile correction of the recent days ended, with the most valuable coin bouncing back towards its all-time high.

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While the long-term picture remains severely overbought, the short-term picture is not stretched and further gains are possible even amid the elevated correction risk. That said, investors should wait for a more favorable entry point to ad dot their holdings, while traders should control position sizes in the light of the long-term setup. Major support levels are now near $13,000, $11,300, and $10,000, with stronger levels still at $8200 and $7700.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The major altcoins are all up today, but only Monero and Litecoin are still within short-term uptrends, and the segment as a whole is still dangerously overextended, and a deeper correction is very likely in the coming weeks. LTC continued its recent break-out, getting close to the $200 level, and joining the extremely overbought group regarding the long-term momentum, and triggering a long-term sell signal in our trend model. Key support levels are found $100 at $75 and $64, with a weaker primary level at $125.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Long-Term Analysis of the Silver Market

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Silver

The silver market has once again caught investors’ interest as the price is nearing areas not seen since late 2008.

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2017 started at a low point for silver, and it seems it will end the year that way as well, meaning investors who bought at the beginning of the year haven’t suffered nor gained much.

This doesn’t mean, however, that the price hasn’t moved during the year. After the low start of the year, silver quickly tacked on about 18% to a top of $17.50 per ounce.

In terms of fundamentals in the silver market, things look a bit complicated for 2018. There are multiple forces pulling in different directions for the price of silver going forward:

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Positives

  • A sharp stock market correction can be expected to occur some time in 2018. Most likely, this will happen sooner rather than later. Stock market crashes always trigger a flight to safety, meaning gold, silver, and quite possibly bitcoin, can benefit.
  • We are seeing signs that inflation may be starting to rise again, although this is not confirmed yet. Rising inflation is always good for precious metals.
  • If the US federal budget deficit widens as a result of the new tax reform, the US dollar may suffer as a consequence. Goldman Sachs put out a note to investors in November 2017 saying that the US debt is “on track” to reach an “unsustainable” level in coming years. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has also said about the US debt that it is “the type of thing that should keep people awake at night.” Rising debt levels creates uncertainty about the economy, which is generally good for gold and silver.

Negatives

  • Central banks around the world seem committed to raise interest rates in 2018. Rising interest rates are bad for precious metals because it would make it more attractive to put money in the bank.
  • The cryptocurrency bull market is on track to continue, diverting attention and capital away from precious metals as a traditional store of value. However, this one is uncertain, as it may also be considered a positive in the way that the rise of cryptocurrencies brings the inflationary and unsustainable nature of fiat currencies into focus.
  • The US dollar may have hit a bottom in 2017 and trade higher compared to other major fiat currencies going into 2018. A stronger dollar is always bad for precious metals, which are priced in dollars.

Silver chart

When looking at the chart, we can see that silver is back down to were it started the year, which coincides with a major support area where it has turned several times in the past few years.

From a technical perspective, silver has been trading in a triangle pattern on the longer-term weekly chart, with the price now trading very near the lower end of the triangle, adding confluence to our bias that silver will trade up from here.

Silver failed to live up to our prediction from early 2017, and is now even trading well below the level from that time.

A low price by any measure combined with two major technical support levels adds confidence to our trade and makes silver a low risk and potentially high reward trade for 2018.

Depending on your own strategy and investment style, you may want to wait for the price to break out from the current triangle pattern it has been trading in for the past year and a half. You would then give up some of the potential return for an even safer trade. After that, major resistance is found around $17.50 and $18, with lots of upside potential if we can finally break through those levels.

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Look Out Below?

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After last week’s observation that a major top is in or near in the segment, the Bitcoin surge continued for almost a week, with Thursday’s wild session taking the coin as high as $19,000 (the article uses Bitstamp prices) on some exchanges. While the currency already pulled back by more than 20% the long-term picture is still extremely overbought and a much deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks.

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BTC spiked below $13,000 today, violating the primary weak support at $13,300, with further levels now at $11,300, $10,000 and $9000, but stronger support only found at $8200 and $7700. Next week’s futures launch could cause another jump in trading activity, and volatility is expected to remain very high amid the likely correction.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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While not all altcoins participated in the, supposedly, last part of the rally, IOTA, Monero, and towards the end of the week Litecoin, also stretched above all conventional targets with IOTA also turning exponential after a deal with Microsoft. The coin exploded by more than 350% before entering an initial sharp correction, breaking the steepest short-term uptrend. Strong support is only found at $3 and $1.5, but potential Fibonacci support is at $2.35.

IOT/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Let’s see how the long-term charts of the other altcoins look after the crazy week.

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