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A Reminder to Hodl: Bitcoin’s 68% Retracement Isn’t Unusual

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Much has been written about bitcoin’s meteoric price collapse over the past six months. The decline has been so severe that many have questioned whether bitcoin’s long-term supporters (hodl’ers) have lost their resolve. However, a careful evaluation of bitcoin’s previous bear markets reveals that the latest retracement isn’t out of the ordinary.

The Support Level Every Trader Needs to Know

As Hacked reported Wednesday, the psychologically important $6,000 support level has been holding well despite the recent downturn. As it turns out, this level offers much more than just psychological significance: it represents a 70% correction from last December’s all-time high and, depending on who you ask, is roughly the break-even rate for miners.

According to Ben Marks, CEO of Blocktrade Capital, the nine previous bitcoin corrections had an average retracement of 64%. For corrections lasting longer than 50 days, the average reversal is 76%. Based on this analysis, $6,000 represents the midpoint of both time frames (as a refresher, bitcoin peaked above $19,700 in December).

For technical traders keeping close tabs on charting patterns, bitcoin’s 2018 correction is almost identical to the correction of 2014 when looking at three popular oscillators: RSI, MACD and Stochcastics. One can argue that the outlook for bitcoin in 2014 was far worse than it is today (Mt. Gox bankruptcy, fallout from Silk Road, poor crypto literacy among consumers, businesses and regulators). And yet, cryptocurrencies became one of the fastest-growing markets of all time just a few years later.

As Tom Lee has reminded us time and time again, virtually all of bitcoin’s yearly gains occur over the span of just ten days. Remove those days and BTC/USD is actually down 25% annually.

Market Psychology

Opponents of bitcoin like to argue that the cryptocurrency lacks “intrinsic value” while cleverly negating the massive amount of resources needed just to maintain the network. If mining rigs, computing power, human resources, crypto exchanges, wallets and thousands of start-ups do not represent “intrinsic value,” then we may have a problem with semantics.

Whether you call it intrinsic value or fundamentals, bitcoin is supporting a global marketplace that extends far beyond what traders do. In fact, “investment coins” now represent half of the total money supply in blockchain, down from 72% over the past year.

That being said, traders and other market participants have a vested interest in protecting their investment. Unless you are shorting bitcoin through the futures market, there is a large community of actors who are committed to keeping prices elevated – or, at least, stable. Going back to Marks, there’s strong reason to believe that market participants will spur to action to prevent bitcoin from falling below, say, $5,000. Those who argue that the market has no bottom and can theoretically fall to zero have clearly overlooked the sheer volume of positive developments occurring on multiple fronts: regulation, adoption, innovation and custodial services. (As an aside, I sometimes have to write multiple Crypto Roundups each week just to keep track of all the positive news.)

There’s no denying that market psychology toward cryptocurrency is brutal right now. However, consider this: bitcoin’s nearly 70% correction has occurred much faster than previous retracements. The recent correction has lasted roughly 200 days compared with 300 that followed the 2014 price collapse. Theoretically, this means that an upward correction could be accomplished much more expeditiously than the several years it took to catapult prices toward $20,000.

To wrap up this article, I’ll leave you with a paragraph I wrote on June 12 that sums up where we are in bitcoin world:

“There’s strong reason to believe that bitcoin’s recent downturn is here to stay for much longer than many had predicted. The good news is the cryptocurrency’s value proposition has only increased over the past six months thanks to institutional adoption, Lightning Network upgrades and continued growth of blockchain enterprise. In a market that is heavily influenced by sentiment, the facts will set you free.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 704 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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EOS Price Analysis: EOS is Set Up for Bigger Gains, Following Recent Technical Development

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  • EOS has jumped around 45% between the sessions of 15th – 17th December. 
  • Bulls shrug off all negative related news flow that has surrounded EOS in recent weeks.

The EOS/USD bulls are on a serious mission to recovery. Unlike several of its peers, a slowdown in momentum has not been seen with the EOS price. More importantly, a breakout has been observed from a range-block, of which EOS/USD was confine within. This had been the case since the 7th December, managing to escape however on 17th and capitalize further on that.

EOS Shakes off Negative Commentary

Over the past few weeks, there have been several negative bits of news flow. Recently, as covered by Hacked in a prior article, the Cardano founder, Charles Hoskinson, had a fair few words to say about EOS. He had noted that action from regulators was potentially right around the corner for EOS. Hoskinson had specifically raised concerns about the EOS token sale.

Elsewhere, it was recently covered by Chinese press that EOS decentralized apps (DApps) have been victim to hacks totaling around $1 million since July. The report cited data which was collected by PeckShield, who are a blockchain security organization. This suggests that the DApps on EOS have been hit by at least 27 breaches from July up to late November. This is an amount of 400,000 EOS, equivalent to 8 million yuan, at the time of the published report.

Lastly, at the back-end of last month, there was some FUD surrounding the CTO of Block.one, Daniel Larimer. The community and social media space were concerned about Larimer working on new projects. This prompted worries that he may be leaving EOS, keeping in mind the EOS mainnet hadn’t even reached a year.

EOS has pretty much shrugged much of this FUD off, as seen with this latest rally. It has far outperformed its peers with the big gains collected over the past two sessions.

Technical Review EOS/USD

EOS/USD daily chart

EOS/USD had a decent extension to the upside after breaching the confinements of the detailed range-block.  The bulls initially jumped a chunky 45% over the period of 15th to the 17th December. However, into the session on Tuesday, the price has run into some minor resistance, seen at the 4th December high area. This can be noted within $2.60 territory.

The pullback being observed at the time of writing isn’t too much of a surprise, given the burst higher in such a short time frame. Profit-taking is only natural in this case. It is a minor retreat ahead of further potential moves north. Eyes will be on the breached range-block for support, the top of that seen at $2.18.

Should the bulls gather enough momentum for a push above the minor near-term resistance seen, then a fast 60% move could be seen. This would take EOS/USD back towards $4.40, where another minor supply zone is observed. Further north, a reclaim of the pre-November fall levels, i.e., $6 territory, is the next major target.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 88 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH/USD Not Out of the Woods Yet

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  • ETH/USD odds are still stacked against the bulls for now, as price remains within range-block.
  • Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, says his creation is becoming more and more decentralized.

ETH/USD has enjoyed a chunky bull run over the past three sessions, with that slowing down Tuesday. Between the 15th – 17th December, the price had gained a chunky 23%. ETH/USD hit its highest level seen since 9th December. It appears the bulls, however, have run into a near-term barrier. ETH has been moving within a range-block from 7th December, which is still the case. The momentum so far not proving to be enough to take the price through for now.

Ethereum More Decentralized – Vitalik Buterin

The co-founder of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, discussed how the network is becoming more decentralized of late. He was recently speaking in an interview with Blockchain Insider.

Buterin believes that a change is starting to be seen in terms of the further decentralization of the Ethereum blockchain. He believed that it was much too centralized around himself. He further affirmed the observations over the last 12 months of governance actions, which were he suggested were responsible for this.

The Ethereum creator said, “Number one, like a lot of the features in the Constantinople hard fork, that are launching in January, basically happened without me. Number two, issuance reduction from 3 ether to 2 ether which is going into Constantinople, I was not involved at all.”

Only just some days ago, a team lead within the Ethereum development circle, Péter Szilágyi, confirmed the scheduled update. This was covered by Hacked in a prior article. He had noted the upgrade is to start around 16th January 2019.

Ethereum 1.X Update

Focus outside of the Constantinople hard fork is on Ethereum 1.X. This will be a new developed update, which is anticipated to take place during June 2019 provided there are no delays.

Buterin said, “Ethereum 1.x, short-term scalability improvements that are going on to the main chain, before we can switch over to sharding. That whole effort started without my involvement at all.” The update is supposedly a replacement of the EVM – Ethereum Virtual Machine.

Technical Review – ETH/USD

ETH/USD daily chart

As detailed earlier, ETH/USD has been moving within a range-block. The upper part of this recent range appears to have slowed down the bulls. The key levels to this block for now, seen at $101 to the upside, and $83.45 to the downside. It is as simple as depending on which area is broken that shall determine the fate of the trend.

Despite the enormous jump of around 16% for ETH/USD, the fact of the matter is the odds are still stacked against the bulls. This being the case so long as the price remains confined within the detailed formation above.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 88 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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IOTA Price Analysis: MIOTA Has Made Encouraging Technical Progress

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  • IOTA continue to expand and collaborate on new projects with other organizations.
  • Bulls defy the odds to breakout from a bearish technical set up. Eyes on a recovery back towards pre-November drop levels.

MIOTA price has gradually seen a renewed amount of bullish sentiment and is trading within its third consecutive session in the green. This comes after weeks of selling from the start of November well into December. Of late, a bottom area has been formed, around the $0.20 mark, which has seen the bulls capitalize on.

It is worth noting, however, that any bull run that has observed continues to be sold by the bears at quite some force. Despite this, most recently the price has made promising developments, given a break away from a bearish technical set up.

Strong Fundamental Developments

Recently, the IOTA foundation had announced a new collaboration with NEXT Biometrics, a global leader in fingerprint sensor technology.  The two organizations will be working together in the development of Internet of Things solutions. This is to then be integrated within NEXT’s leading fingerprint sensor technology and IOTA Foundation’s open-source protocol.

The IOTA foundation’s goal is the promote the development and standardization of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT). Their Tangle is a DLT which is designed for the Internet of Things. This is an open-source protocol that enables machine-to-machine (M2M) engagements. This covers data transmission, in addition to real-time micropayments without charges. It also covers the acquisition and dissemination of information that is sensor-based. As a result, both IOTA and NEXT Biometrics will create synergies from their own existing technical knowledge and experience.

This comes after recent positive updates on the IOTA and Audi partnership, as reported at Hacked in the article last week.

Technical Review – IOT/USD

IOT/USD daily chart

IOT/USD price action had been moving within a bearish pennant pattern set up since 7th December. This formation took place after the steep fall that initiated from November into December. The bulls managed to breakout to the upside from this pattern, most recently on the 16th. This occurred after the odds appeared to be heavily stacked in the favor of the bears amid this current formation.

Furthermore, given the most recent move north, looking to the upside choppy resistance can be eyed around $0.3000-$0.3500 area. This could very well be the bulls first barrier to tackle. Ultimately, a return back to pre-November fall levels will be sought upon. As a result, a return back within the $0.5000 territory, which is some 100% away, at the time of writing is the next major target.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 88 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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