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A Reminder to Hodl: Bitcoin’s 68% Retracement Isn’t Unusual

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Much has been written about bitcoin’s meteoric price collapse over the past six months. The decline has been so severe that many have questioned whether bitcoin’s long-term supporters (hodl’ers) have lost their resolve. However, a careful evaluation of bitcoin’s previous bear markets reveals that the latest retracement isn’t out of the ordinary.

The Support Level Every Trader Needs to Know

As Hacked reported Wednesday, the psychologically important $6,000 support level has been holding well despite the recent downturn. As it turns out, this level offers much more than just psychological significance: it represents a 70% correction from last December’s all-time high and, depending on who you ask, is roughly the break-even rate for miners.

According to Ben Marks, CEO of Blocktrade Capital, the nine previous bitcoin corrections had an average retracement of 64%. For corrections lasting longer than 50 days, the average reversal is 76%. Based on this analysis, $6,000 represents the midpoint of both time frames (as a refresher, bitcoin peaked above $19,700 in December).

For technical traders keeping close tabs on charting patterns, bitcoin’s 2018 correction is almost identical to the correction of 2014 when looking at three popular oscillators: RSI, MACD and Stochcastics. One can argue that the outlook for bitcoin in 2014 was far worse than it is today (Mt. Gox bankruptcy, fallout from Silk Road, poor crypto literacy among consumers, businesses and regulators). And yet, cryptocurrencies became one of the fastest-growing markets of all time just a few years later.

As Tom Lee has reminded us time and time again, virtually all of bitcoin’s yearly gains occur over the span of just ten days. Remove those days and BTC/USD is actually down 25% annually.

Market Psychology

Opponents of bitcoin like to argue that the cryptocurrency lacks “intrinsic value” while cleverly negating the massive amount of resources needed just to maintain the network. If mining rigs, computing power, human resources, crypto exchanges, wallets and thousands of start-ups do not represent “intrinsic value,” then we may have a problem with semantics.

Whether you call it intrinsic value or fundamentals, bitcoin is supporting a global marketplace that extends far beyond what traders do. In fact, “investment coins” now represent half of the total money supply in blockchain, down from 72% over the past year.

That being said, traders and other market participants have a vested interest in protecting their investment. Unless you are shorting bitcoin through the futures market, there is a large community of actors who are committed to keeping prices elevated – or, at least, stable. Going back to Marks, there’s strong reason to believe that market participants will spur to action to prevent bitcoin from falling below, say, $5,000. Those who argue that the market has no bottom and can theoretically fall to zero have clearly overlooked the sheer volume of positive developments occurring on multiple fronts: regulation, adoption, innovation and custodial services. (As an aside, I sometimes have to write multiple Crypto Roundups each week just to keep track of all the positive news.)

There’s no denying that market psychology toward cryptocurrency is brutal right now. However, consider this: bitcoin’s nearly 70% correction has occurred much faster than previous retracements. The recent correction has lasted roughly 200 days compared with 300 that followed the 2014 price collapse. Theoretically, this means that an upward correction could be accomplished much more expeditiously than the several years it took to catapult prices toward $20,000.

To wrap up this article, I’ll leave you with a paragraph I wrote on June 12 that sums up where we are in bitcoin world:

“There’s strong reason to believe that bitcoin’s recent downturn is here to stay for much longer than many had predicted. The good news is the cryptocurrency’s value proposition has only increased over the past six months thanks to institutional adoption, Lightning Network upgrades and continued growth of blockchain enterprise. In a market that is heavily influenced by sentiment, the facts will set you free.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 665 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Altcoins

Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH/USD Has Big Opportunity to Fly Again

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  • ETH/USD is running at seven consecutive sessions of losses, dropping as much as 25%.
  • Price action is moving within a strong demand area, which could very well see the price rocketing again.

Current Price Action

ETH/USD is stuck within a stubborn downward trend. The price is running at a seven consecutive session losing streak. During this time period, ETH/USD has dropped as much as 25%, falling from $226, down to recent lows of $171.95. This is the biggest weekly loss seen since the bear market back in September.

The price was trading in a consolidation manner; this had been the case after the above-mentioned bear market drop. ETH/USD at the time had dropped as much as 45%, before finally staging a recovery. Since the bounce on 12th September, price action began to form a bearish pennant pattern, which was then firmly broken on 14th November.

ETH/USD daily chart

Buying Opportunity  

At the time of writing, ETH/USD is seen trading deep within a known demand area. Buyers last pilled in and drove the price north, back on 12th September, as detailed above. It had gone on to gain a whopping 50%, following the hammer candlestick reversal confirmation. The demand can be eyed around the $170 territory.

Eyes should be on indications of a reversal, the potential for a signal from a candlestick formation, similarly to the prior mentioned recovery. In terms of the RSI via the daily time frame, ETH/USD is very much in oversold territory. The index seen around the 27 level at the time of writing, which could see the price soon bottoming out.

Upside Targets

Should life be kicked back into the bulls, another retest of the breached pennant pattern would likely be seen. Resistance underneath the pennant should be noted at the psychological $200 mark. The bears firmly ran through this price level on 14th November. Further north, another barrier can be observed at $230 area, a known supply zone.

There has been much debate over the past couple of months, as to whether the cryptocurrency market has hit the bottom. Many believed that this was the case, after the deep September drop. While some were still calling another corrective fall. Once some stabilization from the bulls is seen and recovery picks up momentum, this may be the last of the bears for 2018.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 54 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

Zcash Price Analysis: $100 Bargain Buying

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  • ZEC/USD is running at four consecutive daily sessions closing in the red.
  • Chunky buying interest looks healthy within the $100 price region.

ZEC/USD is currently stuck within a very stubborn bearish trend, as seen across the crypto market wide. Several key areas have been breached, however the ZEC/USD bulls are heavily defending vital support territories. The price is running at its fourth consecutive session in the red, having lost over 25% within this trading period.

Recent Bull Failure

As covered in the previous article, the bulls were penetrating near-term stubborn resistance, seen just above $140 territory. Six solid sessions, ZEC/USD had tried to break above, but very much so failed, as a result, the price headed deeply south. Large spikes in volumes were seen with the move lower. It was forced to its lowest levels in over nine weeks.

Downside Targets

ZEC/USD daily chart

First of all, looking to the downside, there is much cover in terms of safety nets for the falling price. Chunky areas of demand are seen tracking from $108 all the way down to $96. In the latest moves lower, buyers have heavy defended a total free-fall. The mentioned demand region did prove its reliability back in the middle of September, during a heavy bear market.

ZEC/USD weekly chart

Observations from the weekly chart look potentially dangerous, should the bearish momentum maintain its current course. A firm breach through the $100 buying area could be devastating. The next firm area, given this is very much uncharted, can be seen at the round $90 level, which is a weekly support area. Further to the downside, $75 is the next target. This is a consolidation area, which was seen prior to the chunky bull run from the back end of April to June.

Above all, price behavior still points to further potential heavy moves lower. Following the weighted pressure on Wednesday and Thursday, price action has stabilized, trading in a consolidation nature. The range has narrowed, moving within $114 – 107. As a result, the current formation can be perceived as a bearish flag pattern, which is subject to extended moves south.

ZEC/USD 4-hour chart

Upside Targets

The $100 territory is very much attractive, as detailed above, historically for buyers. Should bullish momentum kick in around these levels, there is opportunity for a strong upside run. The ZEC/USD bulls will need to retest $140 area; given the number of times this has been tested, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a fast breach. Finally, looking further north, $160 could come quickly into play, high area of early September.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 54 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

Litecoin Price Analysis: LTC/USD Has Fallen Through Vital Support; Where Next?

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  • Critical support for LTC/USD was breached just under the $50 area, leaving the door open to further downside pressure.
  • LTC/USD is moving within a range/consolidation block, subject to another explosive move.

LTC/USD has remained firmly within a downside trend, showing no signs of that shifting anytime soon. Out of the last ten sessions, LTC/USD has closed on the daily in the red for nine of those. Litecoin having lost as much as 27% within this trading period, a move which is generally inline with the rest of the greater market. The focus is now on where LTC/USD will find its feet on some firm ground.

Daily Chart View

LTC/USD daily chart

Looking via the daily time frame, the price has extended through a known touted demand area. This was seen tracking from the big psychological $50 mark, down to $47.50. LTC/USD has previously been comforted by this zone on several occasions. It proved support in August, September and October. This area has always having proven to see decent buyers come in to send the price back on its way north.

4-Hour Chart View

LTC/USD 4-hour chart

Current price behavior remains somewhat worrying via the 4-hour, after the deep drop, LTC/USD has entered a small range block. It is currently licking its wounds, following the bears vicious attack. The price is moving tightly, between $45.00 to $42.50 at the time of writing. Given this technical move being observed, it would not be too surprising if this takes another stab lower. Typically range blocks tend to be broken in an explosive manner.

Next Major Support Areas

LTC/USD weekly chart

The weekly chart view can provide some insight into downside levels to be aware of. In terms of support, the next major level would be eyed at $38 territory. The price has not been seen here since July 2017. LTC/USD had bounced around this area for 7 weeks, between 19th June to 31st July. This move was being observed during a period of consolidation, prior to the big bull run seen in August 2017.

Deeper to the downside, eyes would then be on $33 another vital weekly support level. Price last bounced here in September 2017, requiring support before resuming a bull run. A breach here could be very much catastrophic. There isn’t much support, other than psychological round number areas for LTC/USD. This fall to the downside is very much uncharted territory. If the bearish momentum retains its current course, then $20 or even a return to $10 cannot be ruled out.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 54 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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