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5 Things to Watch Next Week: Treasury Yields, Still Bullish Crypto Coins, Small Caps, Gold, and Jobs Friday

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1.            What’s Next for the Bond Market

The rise in yields has been arguably the most important trend of this week, as the aftermath of the “historic” Fed meeting brought about a significant rise in short-dated Treasury yields. Long-term bonds were less moved by the shift and that still shows the skepticism of the market regarding the long-term growth prospects.

What’s crucial about this that the Trump administration heavily relies on the 3% long-term growth number in the calculations regarding the new tax proposal. Let’s just say that it is an optimistic view; what’s more likely is that the expansion will be slower on average in the coming years, leaving the budget short by trillions. That said, rates could still be headed higher in the coming weeks, and that could help a durable bounce in the Dollar after the lengthy downtrend in the currency.

Two-Year Government Note Futures, Daily Chart Analysis

2.           Bullish Trend in Crypto World

Cryptocurrencies acted pretty well this week, showing resilience to bad news, while rallying on the good catalysts. Bitcoin, IOTA, and NEO have been leading the way higher, and the strength of BTC is especially impressive as the other two coins are rallying off much deeper lows, while the most valuable coin is just 15% off its all-time high. As the downturn that ended with a bang after the Chinese trade ban took the segment down by 40%, the total market capitalization of the coins is still shy of the $175 billion record, but the strength shown by the majors is encouraging. Only the leaders of the previous leg higher in altcoins are weaker, but that’s natural after the monster rallies in Dash, Monero, and Litecoin.

Bitcoin, Daily Chart Analysis

3.           Are Small Caps the New Leaders?

The above-mentioned trend in yields and the skewed positive effects of the tax proposal both favored a shift towards small cap issues towards the end of September, and sure enough the Russell 2000 run circles around the large-cap benchmarks. While the big companies were enjoying the benefits of the record low yields (through large-scale stock buybacks mostly), small caps suffered more from weaker domestic growth. How long will the current shift last? We have our doubts about the durability of the small-cap surge, and we are still sellers of equities at the current elevated valuations, despite the undoubtedly bullish short-term trend.

Russell 2000, Daily Chart

4.           Gold Bottoming?

With gold exactly matching the performance of the S&P 500 in the 3rd quarter, the recent correction in the shiny metal doesn’t seem too bad after all. The dip that came after the North Korea rally reset the overly bullish sentiment, and now the metal is at a major decision point between the crucial $1300 and $1275 levels. We still think that for diversified investors gold is essential in the current environment, and although an exact bottom is hard to catch, the current levels already seem attractive, with the daily MACD headed towards oversold territory. With volatility being near all-time lows and yields being in an uptrend, short-term headwinds are still obvious for precious metals, but the long-term valuation worries and the behavior of the major central banks more than justifies holding them

Gold, Daily Chart

5.           The Fed Meeting Minutes and Jobs Friday

With no Fed meeting in the month of October, and given the recent reveal by the central bank, we expect a less pronounced reaction to economic numbers, as the Fed’s policy looks less fluid for the time being. Janet Yellen’s speech on Tuesday was also an indication that the FOMC is determined to go on with its hiking schedule. Having said all that, a huge negative surprise in the Employment Report could change the landscape, and a meaningful drop in the ISM indices would also be a cause for concern. Apart from those releases, the week will be relatively quiet regarding economic numbers, with a focus on Australia and the RBA’s rate decision.

Key Economic Releases This Week

Day Country Release Expected Previous
Monday JAPAN Manufacturing PMI 18 17
Monday JAPAN Retail Sales 24 23
Monday UK Manufacturing PMI 56.3 56.9
Monday US ISM Manufacturing PMI 57.9 58.8
Tuesday AUSTRALIA Building Approvals 1.1% -1.7%
Tuesday AUSTRALIA RBA Rate Decision
Tuesday AUSTRALIA RBA Statement
Tuesday UK Construction PMI 51.2 51.1
Wednesday UK Services PMI 53.3 53.2
Wednesday US ADP Employment Change 151,000 237,000
Wednesday US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.5 55.3
Wednesday US Crude Oil Invesntories -1.8 mill
Wednesday EUROZONE Mario Darghi Speaks
Wednesday US Janet Yellen Speaks
Thursday AUSTRALIA Retail Sales 0.3% 0.0%
Thursday AUSTRALIA Trade Balance 0.87 bill 0.46 bill
Thursday EUROZONE ECB Meeting Accounts
Thursday CANADA Trade Balance -3.0 bill
Thursday US Unemployment Claims 270,000 272,000
Thursday US Trade Balance -43.0 bill -43.7 bill
Thursday US Factory Orders 0.9% -3.3%
Friday UK Halifax HPI 0.0% 1.1%
Friday CANADA Employment Change 22,200
Friday CANADA Unemployment Rate 6.2%
Friday US Employment Change 88,000 156,000
Friday US Unemployment Rate 4.4% 4.4%
Friday US Hourly Earnings 0.3% 0.1%
Friday CANADA Ivey PMI 57.2 56.3

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 348 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Markets Looking for Direction as Dow Eyes All-Time High

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Global stocks have been trading without clear direction so far today, even after Asia kicked off the day in a bullish fashion, with the Shanghai Composite rallying for the second session in a row following Trump’s tariff announcement. The Nikkei retreated a bit after its recent surge, but Europe followed China’s lead and the majority of US stocks are also sporting gains, even as the Nasdaq is in the red, with the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) lagging behind.

Dow 30 Index Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dow, which has been relatively strong in the past weeks is outperforming again, thanks now mainly to the jump in mega-cap banks, and the index is edging ever closer to its all-time high from January which is less than 1% away currently. Should the industrial average set a record high, the correction that started with the February mini-crash would be erased by all the US indices, further widening the divergence compared to the rest of the world.

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Looking closer at Europe, the DAX is trading at its highest level since the first days of the month, similarly to the EuroStoxx50, but the longer-term downtrends are not in danger yet. British assets were in the center of attention today, since the CPI came in higher than expected in the UK, giving a brief boost to the Pound in the generally choppy environment in the Forex segment.

In the US, the housing market provided the most excitement, with building permits significantly missing the consensus estimate of 1.31 million, coming in at 1.23 million, while housing starts beat expectations with 1.28 million units vs. the 1.24 units expected. The sector remains under pressure from rising rates, and activity is clearly below the cycle-peak earlier this year.

US Yields Continue Surge after the BOJ Meeting

2-year US Treasury Yield, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The upward pressure on yields is apparent today again, with Treasuries plunging and rates rising across the curve. Today, the 30-, 5-, and 2-year yields all hit multi-year highs, and the 10-year yield is also close to the highs it hit in May, as rate hike odds continue to climb before next week’s Fed meeting.

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Bank of Japan didn’t surprise the market today, sticking to its policy despite some recent tightening rumors, and the Yen is virtually unchanged after the decision, with a slight bullish bias.

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities are higher today, even as copper gave back most of its early gains, with gold drifting higher towards the $1210 level and WTI crude oil getting back above the key $70 per barrel level. The precious metal is boosted by the slightly weaker Dollar, while oil gained ground after the larger than expected crude inventory draw in the US.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 348 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Worst Seems to be Over for Stellar and Cardano

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With so many cryptocurrency pairs losing as much as 90% of their value from this year’s high, it may seem that altcoins are deep in bear territory. Even if you’ve been following our bullish breakout series, the pullbacks in the last two few weeks would have made it easy for you to doubt our claims. However, we stand by our assertion that the overall crypto sentiment is slowly becoming bullish. The altcoins that we cover today serve as additional evidence.

In this article, we show how the worst appears to be over for Stellar and Cardano.

Stellar/Bitcoin Analysis

The last two weeks have been very difficult for Stellar/Bitcoin (XLM/BTC) investors. The pair appears to have breached the uptrend line when it dropped to as low as 0.00002933 on September 11, 2018. At that price level, XLM/BTC lost over 56% of its value from the 2018 high of 0.00006789.

Those who cut their losses after the pair breached the uptrend support would have been badly whipsawed. Stellar/Bitcoin eventually managed to recover the support.

Weekly chart of Stellar/Bitcoin

With the recovery of the support, the outlook is bullish for XLM/BTC. First, the false break of the support is bullish. In most cases, this can ignite a rally to the top end of the range or the resistance.

In addition, the weekly RSI appears to have broken out of its own falling wedge. This is a very good sign that bulls are gaining momentum. Keep in mind, the RSI has been trapped inside this falling wedge since April 2018.

Lastly, the recovery of the support marks the end of the E wave, which is often the last wave down. With bulls taking back the support, we have a convincing case that the worst is over for XLM/BTC.

Cardano/Bitcoin Analysis

Just like XLM/BTC, the last two weeks have also been difficult for Cardano/Bitcoin (ADA/BTC).The pair came off lows of 0.00000969 on September 12, 2018. At that point, the market was down by almost 90% from the 2018 high of 0.00008788.

To many crypto investors, ADA/BTC may be fighting to stay alive. Bears have given their best shot and it may have appeared that the market was down for the count. However, just as ADA/BTC looked hopeless, the market bounced back like a true champion.

Weekly chart of ADA/BTC

As if on cue, ADA/BTC bounced as soon as it hit the support trendline of the falling wedge. This price action emboldened bottom fishers to enter long positions. The increasing demand coupled with decreasing supply due to bearish exhaustion are creating the ideal conditions for a bullish reversal.

As of this writing, ADA/BTC is taking out resistance of 0.000011. Breach of this support will enable the market to reverse its trend and bid goodbye to bear territory.

Bottom Line

Cryptos are slowly stepping out of bear territory. The last few weeks have been difficult but overall, altcoins are becoming bullish. This seems to be the case for both XLM/BTC and ADA/BTC. The worst appears to be over for the two altcoin pairs as they prepare to finally reverse their trend.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.6 stars on average, based on 235 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Analysis

Ethereum Making a Decision Where to Go

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Ether is losing its value slightly today on Sep 19, trading at around $207.98. Losing 0.25% on Wednesday is not that surprising after a very hard Monday (although Tuesday was neutral). The crypto was above $210 when the session started, but then failed to stay near the local highs, says Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex.

On H1, the bearish trendline is at $216, which is confirmed on D1. The resistance levels at $216 and $220 are strong, and they must be broken out in order to go up or at least pull back upwards.

In case Ether fails to find any drivers, it will likely consolidate at around $205. This is exactly where the key support lies, while the resistance is at $216, as mentioned above.

The MACD is negative on D1, moving along the signal line, still giving a moderate buy signal, while the Stochastic is not going anywhere and is not issuing any signal, while being in the positives.

Lately, Ether is very much volatile, with no certain direction. Last week the cryptocurrency spiked 32%, but early this week it reverted and started falling. Ether is vulnerable to the general negative sentiment in the crypto market, although the inside news influence it, too.

People are waiting for the Constantinople update, as well as for the introduction of Ether futures on CBOE which should take place before the end of the year. Meanwhile, low activity in ICOs does no good to Ether’s price either.

Recently, news has come that the Ethereum network reduced its reward for mined blocks, from 3 to 2 ETH. This nearly equals the profits of Ether and Bitcoin miners, so some ETH miners are sure to switch to Bitcoin after this happened, especially those that are unable to cover their costs and expenses (and there are quite a few).

The only positive piece of news now is the pending payment option in MyCrypto wallet designed by Ethereum. This option enables scheduling the payment date and time, which simplifies matters when it comes to recurring payments, such as subscriptions.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 7 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, I went on to continue my education in post graduate. Later I worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped me to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. I'm a pro in the financial field and the author of articles for various international media. I also hold the position of Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.




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