5 Things to Watch Next Week: Bitcoin’s Fork, the Oil Rally, the Dollar, Apple, and the $1300 level in Gold | Hacked: Hacking Finance
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5 Things to Watch Next Week: Bitcoin’s Fork, the Oil Rally, the Dollar, Apple, and the $1300 level in Gold

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5 Things to Watch Next Week: Bitcoin’s Fork, the Oil Rally, the Dollar, Apple, and the $1300 level in Gold

Introduction

This article was posted on Sunday, 16:31, UTC.

1. Bitcoin’s Big Day is Here

Bitcoin’s future got a lot clearer in the past two weeks, as the surpassingly quick miner lock in of the BIP 41 proposal, the following BIP 141 lock in and the SegWit finalization opened up the way for a smooth transition. The Bitcoin Cash hard fork initiative failed to gain traction, despite an initial surge, and the brief correction in Bitcoin faded away in the second half of the week, although the weekend ended up to be slightly bearish for BTC. With all the positive developments in mind, we still expect nervous trading leading up to August 1, as several exchanges will halt trading, which could lead to a low-liquidity environment. With the long-term technical picture still being favorable for the currency, and for the whole segment, adds favor rally towards the back end of the week.

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Bitcoin, Daily Chart Analysis

2. Oil at $50 as Goldman Sachs Sees Balancing of Fundamentals

Oil had a nice run in the past two weeks, as it continues its orderly range trading from a technical viewpoint. The WTI contract is back at the crucial $50 level, with the help of the strong decline in the Dollar, the prospects of slower tightening by the Federal Reserve, the positive news regarding the OPEC production cut deal, and the slower growth of the US output. While these factors are definitely favorable, the growing share of the shale industry means that output is much more flexible than it has ever been, and prices will likely be capped thanks to that. The slow global growth, and the weak demand are also long-term challenges for the commodity and we don’t expect a major move above the prior highs at $54. And as Goldman issued a “cautiously positive” outlook, one might wonder if they are already on the other side, selling or even shorting oil here.

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WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

3. Dollar Still Hitting New Lows before Jobs Friday

This week delivered two major blows to the already struggling Greenback, as the dovish Fed-statement was followed by a prelim GDP report that showed very weak inflationary forces. While we still expect the Fed to start normalizing its balance sheet this year, the economic cycle seems to have peaked, and with the mountain of debt still on the back of basically all developed nations, it’s hard to imagine interest rates back at the “old normal” of 4-5% anytime soon. That said, the Dollar might still lose ground compared to the Euro, as the ECB will likely follow the FED as usual, but we see this trend as a cyclical bull market, within a secular decline for the common currency against the USD. The next big impulse will likely come on Friday again, with the ever crucial US Employment Report.

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4. Another Big Earnings Week Coming

While this week was certainly the peak of the US and the European earnings season, traders will see some other interesting reports coming out in the coming days. Most importantly, Apple (AAPL) will publish its quarterly earnings, and the company that sports $785 billion in market cap is always a huge force alone.  So far earnings were a mixed bag, as AT&T (T), Facebook (FB) and Coca Cola (KO) delivered positive surprises, while Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), and Exxon (XOM) missed the consensus estimates. Markets were as choppy as expected amid the releases, and what’s more, Thursday brought another flash crash in the biggest names of the NASDAQ, without any news whatsoever. We will see if that is once again a precursor of a deeper correction, as it was the case in June.

5. Gold Finally Tops $1300?

Gold investors have been treated well by the market as of late, with the Shiny Metal finally reacting to the economic and monetary news in an encouraging way. We have been urging investors to load up on the dips, as the long-term picture still looks bright for precious metals, and although we are nearing short-term overbought readings, gold will likely test the $1300 level soon. With the bear market that started in 2011 likely being over, further hints on economic weakness could cause a sustainable rally gold, even without a clear signal from the central banks that, in fact, interest rates will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gold, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases Next Week

Day Country Release Expected Previous
Monday CHINA Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.7
Monday CHINA Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.9
Monday GERMANY Retail Sales 0.3% 0.5%
Monday EUROZONE Flash CPI 1.35 1.3%
Monday CANADA RMPI -1.8%
Monday US Chicago PMI 60.2 65.7
Monday US Pending Home Sales 1.1% -0.8%
Tuesday AUSTRALIA RBA Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5%
Tuesday AUSTRALIA RBA Statement 116.2 118.9
Tuesday UK Manufacturing PMI 54.4 54.3
Tuesday EUROZONE Prelim GDP 0.6% 0.6%
Tuesday US PCE Price Index 0.1% 0.1%
Tuesday US Personal Spending 0.1% 0.1%
Tuesday US ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.4 57.8
Wednesday AUSTRALIA Building Approvals 1.1% -5.6%
Wednesday UK Construction PMI 54.2 54.8
Wednesday US ADP Employment Change 187,000 158,000
Wednesday US Crude Oil Inventories -7.2 mill
Thursday AUSTRALIA Trade Balance 1.77 bill 2.47 bill
Thursday UK Services PMI 53.7 53.4
Thursday UK BOE Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
Thursday UK BOE Statement
Thursday US Initial Jobles Claims 242,000 244,000
Thursday US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.9 57.4
Thursday US Factory Orders 2.7% -0.8%
Friday AUSTRALIA RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Friday AUSTRALIA Retail Sales 0.2% 0.6%
Friday CANADA Employment Change 14,600 45,300
Friday CANADA Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.5%
Friday CANADA Trade Balance -1.4 bill -1.1 bill
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls 183,000 222,000
Friday US Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.4%
Friday US Hourly Earnings 0.3% 0.2%
Friday US Trade Balance -45.6 bill -46.5 bill
Friday CANADA Ivey PMI 59.2 61.6

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Mate Cser

Mate Cser

Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.

Comments
  • user

    AUTHOR Chris G

    Posted on 7:40 pm July 30, 2017.

    Move btc into a wallet that gives you private key access like Jaxx – futures on bitcoin cash are valued at .13 btc so you can make a quick 13% on your bitcoin holding just by having your coin in the right place. To avoid the transaction issues, trade btc to ltc, send to your Jaxx wallet and immediately exchange to btc. I moved all my crypto holdings to btc to make the quick 13%. Silly not to …

  • user

    AUTHOR Chris G

    Posted on 7:41 pm July 30, 2017.

    I own an oil and gas biz so it’s a good week 😘

  • View Comments (3) ...
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