Connect with us

Analysis

5 Things to Watch Next Week: Bitcoin’s Fork, the Oil Rally, the Dollar, Apple, and the $1300 level in Gold

Published

on

1. Bitcoin’s Big Day is Here

Bitcoin’s future got a lot clearer in the past two weeks, as the surpassingly quick miner lock in of the BIP 41 proposal, the following BIP 141 lock in and the SegWit finalization opened up the way for a smooth transition. The Bitcoin Cash hard fork initiative failed to gain traction, despite an initial surge, and the brief correction in Bitcoin faded away in the second half of the week, although the weekend ended up to be slightly bearish for BTC. With all the positive developments in mind, we still expect nervous trading leading up to August 1, as several exchanges will halt trading, which could lead to a low-liquidity environment. With the long-term technical picture still being favorable for the currency, and for the whole segment, adds favor rally towards the back end of the week.

Bitcoin, Daily Chart Analysis

2. Oil at $50 as Goldman Sachs Sees Balancing of Fundamentals

Oil had a nice run in the past two weeks, as it continues its orderly range trading from a technical viewpoint. The WTI contract is back at the crucial $50 level, with the help of the strong decline in the Dollar, the prospects of slower tightening by the Federal Reserve, the positive news regarding the OPEC production cut deal, and the slower growth of the US output. While these factors are definitely favorable, the growing share of the shale industry means that output is much more flexible than it has ever been, and prices will likely be capped thanks to that. The slow global growth, and the weak demand are also long-term challenges for the commodity and we don’t expect a major move above the prior highs at $54. And as Goldman issued a “cautiously positive” outlook, one might wonder if they are already on the other side, selling or even shorting oil here.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

3. Dollar Still Hitting New Lows before Jobs Friday

This week delivered two major blows to the already struggling Greenback, as the dovish Fed-statement was followed by a prelim GDP report that showed very weak inflationary forces. While we still expect the Fed to start normalizing its balance sheet this year, the economic cycle seems to have peaked, and with the mountain of debt still on the back of basically all developed nations, it’s hard to imagine interest rates back at the “old normal” of 4-5% anytime soon. That said, the Dollar might still lose ground compared to the Euro, as the ECB will likely follow the FED as usual, but we see this trend as a cyclical bull market, within a secular decline for the common currency against the USD. The next big impulse will likely come on Friday again, with the ever crucial US Employment Report.

4. Another Big Earnings Week Coming

While this week was certainly the peak of the US and the European earnings season, traders will see some other interesting reports coming out in the coming days. Most importantly, Apple (AAPL) will publish its quarterly earnings, and the company that sports $785 billion in market cap is always a huge force alone.  So far earnings were a mixed bag, as AT&T (T), Facebook (FB) and Coca Cola (KO) delivered positive surprises, while Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), and Exxon (XOM) missed the consensus estimates. Markets were as choppy as expected amid the releases, and what’s more, Thursday brought another flash crash in the biggest names of the NASDAQ, without any news whatsoever. We will see if that is once again a precursor of a deeper correction, as it was the case in June.

5. Gold Finally Tops $1300?

Gold investors have been treated well by the market as of late, with the Shiny Metal finally reacting to the economic and monetary news in an encouraging way. We have been urging investors to load up on the dips, as the long-term picture still looks bright for precious metals, and although we are nearing short-term overbought readings, gold will likely test the $1300 level soon. With the bear market that started in 2011 likely being over, further hints on economic weakness could cause a sustainable rally gold, even without a clear signal from the central banks that, in fact, interest rates will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gold, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases Next Week

Day Country Release Expected Previous
Monday CHINA Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.7
Monday CHINA Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.9
Monday GERMANY Retail Sales 0.3% 0.5%
Monday EUROZONE Flash CPI 1.35 1.3%
Monday CANADA RMPI -1.8%
Monday US Chicago PMI 60.2 65.7
Monday US Pending Home Sales 1.1% -0.8%
Tuesday AUSTRALIA RBA Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5%
Tuesday AUSTRALIA RBA Statement 116.2 118.9
Tuesday UK Manufacturing PMI 54.4 54.3
Tuesday EUROZONE Prelim GDP 0.6% 0.6%
Tuesday US PCE Price Index 0.1% 0.1%
Tuesday US Personal Spending 0.1% 0.1%
Tuesday US ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.4 57.8
Wednesday AUSTRALIA Building Approvals 1.1% -5.6%
Wednesday UK Construction PMI 54.2 54.8
Wednesday US ADP Employment Change 187,000 158,000
Wednesday US Crude Oil Inventories -7.2 mill
Thursday AUSTRALIA Trade Balance 1.77 bill 2.47 bill
Thursday UK Services PMI 53.7 53.4
Thursday UK BOE Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
Thursday UK BOE Statement
Thursday US Initial Jobles Claims 242,000 244,000
Thursday US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.9 57.4
Thursday US Factory Orders 2.7% -0.8%
Friday AUSTRALIA RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Friday AUSTRALIA Retail Sales 0.2% 0.6%
Friday CANADA Employment Change 14,600 45,300
Friday CANADA Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.5%
Friday CANADA Trade Balance -1.4 bill -1.1 bill
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls 183,000 222,000
Friday US Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.4%
Friday US Hourly Earnings 0.3% 0.2%
Friday US Trade Balance -45.6 bill -46.5 bill
Friday CANADA Ivey PMI 59.2 61.6

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 297 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




Feedback or Requests?

3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Chris G

    July 30, 2017 at 7:40 pm

    Move btc into a wallet that gives you private key access like Jaxx – futures on bitcoin cash are valued at .13 btc so you can make a quick 13% on your bitcoin holding just by having your coin in the right place. To avoid the transaction issues, trade btc to ltc, send to your Jaxx wallet and immediately exchange to btc. I moved all my crypto holdings to btc to make the quick 13%. Silly not to …

  2. Chris G

    July 30, 2017 at 7:41 pm

    I own an oil and gas biz so it’s a good week ?

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Analysis

Crypto Update: Divergence Deepens as Altcoins Fall, Bitcoin Flat

Published

on

The unusual discrepancy between BTC and the rest of the cryptocurrency market continued today, with the top 10 coins all losing ground with the exception of Bitcoin itself. Tuesday’s surge, which carried the segment to $300 billion in total market cap quickly fizzled out, at least as far as the major altcoins are concerned, but the largest digital currency is still holding on above the strong $7000 and $7350 support/resistance levels.

Altcoins are on short-term sell signals according to our trend model, but Bitcoin is still on a buy signal as the declining trend was broken by the break-out that remains intact, despite the segment-wide weakness.

Given the mixed, but one-sided setup, and the lack of bullish follow-through, odds still favor a bearish outcome, and traders should remain cautious with new positions here, even in BTC, the positive outlier. A broad trend change would require a meaningful leadership, and until that develops, a test of t eh June lows remains likely, with the possibility of new lows in the coming week as well.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Bitcoin failed to durably stay above the $7500 level, bulls successfully defended the support zone near $7350, despite the overbought short-term momentum readings. The coin is well above the line-in-the-sand $7000 level and the long-term support near $5850 that was in danger just one week ago.

Although the altcoin weakness makes BTC’s rally suspicious, the short-term bullish pattern is intact, as is the buy signal in our trend model. Further support is found at $6750, and $6500, while primary resistance is still ahead at $7650.

Selling Pressure Apparent in Altcoins

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

All intraday rally attempts have been sold so far in most of the major altcoins, and Ethereum is just holding up above primary support at $450 despite the rally in the beginning of the week. The coin is on a short-term sell signal, and a test of the June lows is likely after the failed break-out. Strong resistance is ahead at $500 and between $555 and $575, while support is found at $420, $400, $380, and $360.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Monero has been holding up relatively well in the last couple of days after getting stuck below the $150 level during the Tuesday surge, but the coin is still among the structurally weak majors, being on a long-term sell signal. As the other bearish leaders, NEO, LTC, and Dash are also trading below key long-term levels, we expect the coin to fall back below the $125 support and likely test the June lows in the coming weeks.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The third largest coin Ripple is already testing the $0.45 level after drifting lower ever since the Tuesday rally, and as its relative weakness is still clear, a break below that level seems to be imminent. Below that, the crucial long-term support zone near $0.42 could stop the decline of XRP again, but a move under that could trigger a long-term sell signal.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
1 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 5 (1 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 297 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

Forex Update: Boring Means Long-Term Sustainability for EUR/INR

Published

on

Billionaire investor George Soros once said, “If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.” As an experienced investor, I couldn’t agree more. There’s a lot of waiting and sitting involved but that’s how money is made in investing. The Euro/Indian Rupee (EUR/INR) pair seems to be the perfect embodiment of this quote.

Looking as far back as 1999, it appears that EUR/INR has been in an unstoppable bull run since the second half of 2002. If you invested in the pair a decade and a half ago, you would have more than doubled your money. Chances are you didn’t, but don’t fret because you can always invest today. EUR/INR looks as strong today as it did back then.

In this article, we show how EUR/INR is looking strong on all counts despite being boring.

Healthy Ascending Channel on the Daily Chart  

EUR/INR dropped to as low as 67.9819 on April 10, 2017 and it was nothing but blue skies since. It is trading within an ascending channel as it generates higher highs and higher lows in a sustainable manner. The ascending channel looks healthy, too, as the trading range is not significantly contracting or expanding.


Daily chart of EUR/INR

If you look at the technical indicators, everything is fairly clear. EUR/INR rallies when it flashes oversold readings. On the other hand, it corrects when it is overbought. You won’t find excitement here and that’s good news for long term investors.

Concluded Corrective Wave on the Weekly

EUR/INR started showing signs of weakness in September 2013 when it posted a shooting star weekly candle. The ensuing pullback drove the pair down to the 65 levels in March 2015 (A-wave). The market has not visited that price area since. It managed to generate a bullish higher low setup at 68 (C-wave). This was a clear signal to investors that the correction was over.

Weekly chart of EUR/INR

With a higher low in place, EUR/INR took out resistance of 76. The new support level was tested and retested before the pair mounted a strong rally. On top of that, we can see a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly RSI, hinting that the uptrend is in a good shape.

Even in the weekly chart, the market is not pulling any surprises. There are no false breaks and no shakedowns. You don’t have to look close to see where the market is headed. EUR/INR is boring and that’s why it is strong.

Major Support Line on the Monthly Intact

Conventional wisdom says to buy low and sell high. The problem with this is that you don’t really know when is the market low. The market can go down as there’s always the possibility that a key support can break. That’s just not the case for EUR/INR.

Monthly chart of EUR/INR

Buying low is fairly simple in this case. All investors have to do is to wait for the price to hit the long-term support. Investors can be confident in doing so because the trend line has been intact for over 15 years. More importantly, it bounces every time it hit the support. It’s not really exciting but it works.

Bottom Line

A famous billionaire trader once said that good investing is boring, and I agree. Look at the charts of EUR/INR and you’ll see why boring investing is good.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

3.6 stars on average, based on 201 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

Pre-Market: China Tries to Support Markets as Global Stocks Slide

Published

on

Yesterday’s risk-off shift continued today in early trading with nervous and choppy trading in Asia and Europe, as global financial markets are still haunted by trade war fears and emerging market weakness. The major US indices rolled over after another period of apparent relative strength, with the Nasdaq being the most robust market once again, while most of the key European benchmarks continue to lag behind.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Chinese assets are still in focus before the weekend, as the Yuan’s recent steep devaluation sparked fears of a credit meltdown in the country. With the largest credit bubble in human history casting its shadow on China, some analysts think that with Trump’s trade war, the bug finally found its windshield and the bubble already started to burst.

USD/Yuan, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

All eyes are on the USD/Yuan pair as Chinese authorities are reportedly intervening in the market of the currency, and most likely local equities as well, trying to prevent a serious run on the most important assets.

With the Chinese stock market already in a bear market, and the Yuan trading at fresh 12-month lows against the Dollar, it might be a bit late to stop the slide, but the intervention could cause spectacular short squeezes.

Italy also made headlines today during the European session, as Italian government bonds got slammed lower, as the future of the new finance minister is uncertain, with another round of political turmoil possibly ahead for Europe’s most vulnerable country.

Unicredit (UCG), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Looking at the charts of Italian banks, it’s clear that the spring turmoil had a lasting effect on the financial system, as Unicredit is on the verge of hitting a new low, and the other large players also remain under pressure, in part explaining the general weakness in European equities.

Europe Still Far Behind amid Mixed Economic Numbers

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The economic calendar is almost empty today with regards to the key markets, as the Canadian Retail Sales and CPI reports are the most important releases. The Canadian Dollar rebounded when the USD entered a correction June, but now the currency edging lower again, as the weakness in commodities and the Greenback’s rally are taking their toll. New highs are likely in the USD/CAD pair in the coming weeks, although strong resistance is just ahead at 1.33.

Commodities are little changed today after yesterday’s volatile session, as the bounce in China helped to stabilize the segment. Notably copper is back above the key $2.70 level, while WTI crude oil is trading at $68 per barrel again, and gold is hovering around $1225.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 297 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

5 of 15 Seats Available

Learn more here.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

A part of CCN

Hacked.com is Neutral and Unbiased

Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

Trending