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5 Things to Watch Next Week: Bitcoin’s Fork, the Oil Rally, the Dollar, Apple, and the $1300 level in Gold

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1. Bitcoin’s Big Day is Here

Bitcoin’s future got a lot clearer in the past two weeks, as the surpassingly quick miner lock in of the BIP 41 proposal, the following BIP 141 lock in and the SegWit finalization opened up the way for a smooth transition. The Bitcoin Cash hard fork initiative failed to gain traction, despite an initial surge, and the brief correction in Bitcoin faded away in the second half of the week, although the weekend ended up to be slightly bearish for BTC. With all the positive developments in mind, we still expect nervous trading leading up to August 1, as several exchanges will halt trading, which could lead to a low-liquidity environment. With the long-term technical picture still being favorable for the currency, and for the whole segment, adds favor rally towards the back end of the week.

Bitcoin, Daily Chart Analysis

2. Oil at $50 as Goldman Sachs Sees Balancing of Fundamentals

Oil had a nice run in the past two weeks, as it continues its orderly range trading from a technical viewpoint. The WTI contract is back at the crucial $50 level, with the help of the strong decline in the Dollar, the prospects of slower tightening by the Federal Reserve, the positive news regarding the OPEC production cut deal, and the slower growth of the US output. While these factors are definitely favorable, the growing share of the shale industry means that output is much more flexible than it has ever been, and prices will likely be capped thanks to that. The slow global growth, and the weak demand are also long-term challenges for the commodity and we don’t expect a major move above the prior highs at $54. And as Goldman issued a “cautiously positive” outlook, one might wonder if they are already on the other side, selling or even shorting oil here.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

3. Dollar Still Hitting New Lows before Jobs Friday

This week delivered two major blows to the already struggling Greenback, as the dovish Fed-statement was followed by a prelim GDP report that showed very weak inflationary forces. While we still expect the Fed to start normalizing its balance sheet this year, the economic cycle seems to have peaked, and with the mountain of debt still on the back of basically all developed nations, it’s hard to imagine interest rates back at the “old normal” of 4-5% anytime soon. That said, the Dollar might still lose ground compared to the Euro, as the ECB will likely follow the FED as usual, but we see this trend as a cyclical bull market, within a secular decline for the common currency against the USD. The next big impulse will likely come on Friday again, with the ever crucial US Employment Report.

4. Another Big Earnings Week Coming

While this week was certainly the peak of the US and the European earnings season, traders will see some other interesting reports coming out in the coming days. Most importantly, Apple (AAPL) will publish its quarterly earnings, and the company that sports $785 billion in market cap is always a huge force alone.  So far earnings were a mixed bag, as AT&T (T), Facebook (FB) and Coca Cola (KO) delivered positive surprises, while Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), and Exxon (XOM) missed the consensus estimates. Markets were as choppy as expected amid the releases, and what’s more, Thursday brought another flash crash in the biggest names of the NASDAQ, without any news whatsoever. We will see if that is once again a precursor of a deeper correction, as it was the case in June.

5. Gold Finally Tops $1300?

Gold investors have been treated well by the market as of late, with the Shiny Metal finally reacting to the economic and monetary news in an encouraging way. We have been urging investors to load up on the dips, as the long-term picture still looks bright for precious metals, and although we are nearing short-term overbought readings, gold will likely test the $1300 level soon. With the bear market that started in 2011 likely being over, further hints on economic weakness could cause a sustainable rally gold, even without a clear signal from the central banks that, in fact, interest rates will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gold, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases Next Week

Day Country Release Expected Previous
Monday CHINA Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.7
Monday CHINA Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.9
Monday GERMANY Retail Sales 0.3% 0.5%
Monday EUROZONE Flash CPI 1.35 1.3%
Monday CANADA RMPI -1.8%
Monday US Chicago PMI 60.2 65.7
Monday US Pending Home Sales 1.1% -0.8%
Tuesday AUSTRALIA RBA Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5%
Tuesday AUSTRALIA RBA Statement 116.2 118.9
Tuesday UK Manufacturing PMI 54.4 54.3
Tuesday EUROZONE Prelim GDP 0.6% 0.6%
Tuesday US PCE Price Index 0.1% 0.1%
Tuesday US Personal Spending 0.1% 0.1%
Tuesday US ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.4 57.8
Wednesday AUSTRALIA Building Approvals 1.1% -5.6%
Wednesday UK Construction PMI 54.2 54.8
Wednesday US ADP Employment Change 187,000 158,000
Wednesday US Crude Oil Inventories -7.2 mill
Thursday AUSTRALIA Trade Balance 1.77 bill 2.47 bill
Thursday UK Services PMI 53.7 53.4
Thursday UK BOE Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
Thursday UK BOE Statement
Thursday US Initial Jobles Claims 242,000 244,000
Thursday US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.9 57.4
Thursday US Factory Orders 2.7% -0.8%
Friday AUSTRALIA RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Friday AUSTRALIA Retail Sales 0.2% 0.6%
Friday CANADA Employment Change 14,600 45,300
Friday CANADA Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.5%
Friday CANADA Trade Balance -1.4 bill -1.1 bill
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls 183,000 222,000
Friday US Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.4%
Friday US Hourly Earnings 0.3% 0.2%
Friday US Trade Balance -45.6 bill -46.5 bill
Friday CANADA Ivey PMI 59.2 61.6

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Chris G

    July 30, 2017 at 7:40 pm

    Move btc into a wallet that gives you private key access like Jaxx – futures on bitcoin cash are valued at .13 btc so you can make a quick 13% on your bitcoin holding just by having your coin in the right place. To avoid the transaction issues, trade btc to ltc, send to your Jaxx wallet and immediately exchange to btc. I moved all my crypto holdings to btc to make the quick 13%. Silly not to …

  2. Chris G

    July 30, 2017 at 7:41 pm

    I own an oil and gas biz so it’s a good week ?

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Analysis

5 Things To Watch Next Week

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An Italian Budget Deal?

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Outside the European Union, the ongoing debate regarding the Italian budget might be quite perplexing, especially given the strong reaction by financial markets. While the relatively small budget deficit of the country is really violating the rules of the Eurozone, we have seen much larger deviations from the fiscal rules without meaningful consequences.

That said, the sorry state of the Italian financial system, the stealth capital flight from the country, and the structural imbalances of the ECB’s bond purchasing program validate the scrutiny of the EU. Some analysts say that the Italian banking system is outright insolvent, but in any case, deep structural reforms would be necessary, and the real issue behind the debate is the populist anti-EU rhetoric of the new government. With that mind, even if the two sides reach a deal on the budget, which could lead to a strong relief rally in Europe, Italy will likely cause further severe headaches down the road.

Trillions in Market Cap Reporting

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The US earnings season is entering its crucial phase, with next week being one of the busiest in this quarter. The Nasdaq will be in the focus throughout the week, but the sheer size of the tech giants reporting means that the whole market could experience wild swings.

The three largest companies Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Google parent Alphabet (GOOG), alone represent more than $2 trillion in market value, and Intel (INTC), Verizon (VZ), AT&T (T), Visa (V) are also very important for the US and the global economy.

So far, the quarter surpassed expectations, and should the string of earnings beats continue, it could provide stability to the shaky stock markets. Besides the largest firms, we will keep a close eye on anything China-related, to get authentic information on the real state of the country’s economy.

The European Central Bank Behind the Curve, as Usual…

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

As global economic growth is clearly slowing, and the Italian worries already caused a widening in the yield spreads between the core and the periphery in the Eurozone, the ECB seems to be way behind the curve with its monetary policies.

Although the tightening the schedule of ECB is very gradual, we could still get a hawkish surprise next week, and that could enter the hall of fame among the disastrous decisions by the central bank. The ECB managed to hike rates in the middle of financial crises before (the summers of 2008 and 2011), and although the Euro’s weakness and the Fed’s tightening steps could give the impression that there is room for a hawkish shift, the macro backdrop suggests otherwise. Look for a strong bounce in the Euro and further weakness in equities, should Draghi & Co. confirm our suspicions.

Will the Chinese Bounce Last?

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

2018 for Chinese stocks has been nothing short of disastrous, with the key benchmarks entering deep bear markets, fading all rally attempts so far. With the largest credit bubble in history threatening the country’s financial system, and with Chinese growth being more important than ever for the global economy, what happens in the coming months could be crucial for all investors.

On Friday, one of the lowest (official) GDP prints came out from China, while auto sales also dropped for the first time in decades, suggesting that the stock market could be correct in pricing a hard landing. While the verbal and other forms of intervention lifted stocks before the weekend, should another rally attempt fail, the bear market could enter an accelerating, mainstream phase.

US Midterms Drawing Closer

The Chinese problems are likely not caused, but definitely amplified by the ongoing trade spat with the US, and before the midterm elections in three weeks time, it’s unlikely that we will see easing in the conflict. According to polls and prediction markets, the GOP will likely keep the Senate majority. While the Democrats are still expected to take the House, the Republicans and Trump seem to have the momentum.

As stocks usual suffer in times of political uncertainty, risk assets would likely be better of, at least short-term if the current trends would continue, as A blue House + Senate combination could mean two very stormy years in Washington.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Monero Price Analysis: XMR/USD Marching Higher amid Large Reduction in Fees

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Kovri Bulletproofs Monero
  • Monero community members are sharing their delight with the instant impact of the recent update.
  • XMR/USD bulls will be looking at another retest of the breached Aug-Oct ascending trend line.

Latest Update from Monero Developers Sees Huge Reduction in Fees

The Monero community are sharing their excited observations of the benefits from the Beryllium Bullet update. Earlier this week, the foundation had another hard fork going live. The release was known as, “Monero 0.13.0 “Beryllium Bullet,”. The goal was for greater efficiency of their protocol, to facilitate stronger privacy, faster and more cost-effective transactions. In addition, more resistant ASIC miner protection, as previously reported via the last Monero article.

The update has instantly demonstrated its enhanced performance and new features. Monero users have been taking to the social space to express their delight, with the changes being very noticeable.

Members of the Monero community via the Reddit social page were sharing their photos, providing examples of how low the fees are for processing transactions are now.

Technical Review – 60-minute Chart

XMR/USD 60-minute chart

XMR/USD can be seen moving within a triangular pattern set up, via the 60-minute chart view. This coming after much stabilization has been seen with the price since the overly aggressive movement on 15th October. That’s when prices spiked higher in line with the rest of the market, before quickly retreating. The price behavior would suggest another breakout is very much imminent as it is currently moving within an extremely narrowing nature. Looking to the upside, resistance can be seen just ahead at $108.50, or the upper part of the pattern. Further ahead, a choppy supply area is seen running from $110-112 region. In terms of support this can be eyed not too far below, $106.50, lower part of the triangle.

Technical Review – Daily Chart

XMR/USD daily chart

Looking via the daily chart, there is room for upside and another retest of the breached ascending trend line. This had originally been supporting the price from 13th August up until early October. XMR/USD bulls could run up the price to $124 territory, before being met with a test of hard sellers. During the big spike on 15th October, the upper wick can be seen having attempted to break back above the mentioned trend line.

If the bulls can maintain their course of upside momentum and break back above the original supporting trend line, a price towards $150 could again be reclaimed.  In terms of support on the daily, this looks firm around $104, a secondary running ascending trend line. Further south, a demand zone is seen sub-$100, running from $86 – $76 region.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 33 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Market Still in Deadlock

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The choppy, directionless period in the cryptocurrency segment continues, with no meaningful change in the technical setups of the major coins. While the broader trends are still clearly bearish and sellers remain in control of the market, we saw another minor bullish shift in the past 24 hours, with modest gains across the board.

Most of the top coins are trading in the range of the Monday session, which saw the spike triggered by the turmoil in Tether. Stellar is the apparent positive outlier of the past few days, while Dash, Litecoin, and Ethereum have been the weakest so far this week.

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On a positive note, all of the majors remain above last week’s levels, and especially Bitcoin’s continued stability is encouraging for crypto-bulls here, even as our trend model paints a negative picture of the segment.


BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin avoided a test of the $6275 level despite moving below its recent very narrow trading range yesterday, with still no meaningful bearish or bullish momentum present in the coin’s market. BTC continues to trade below the $6500 level, and its volatility is very low, even after the move below the previously dominant broad triangle consolidation pattern.

Further resistance levels are still ahead near $6750 and $7000, while support levels below $6275 are found near $600, $5850 and between $5000 and $5100.

Altcoins Little Changed as Ethereum Still Glued to $200

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The weekend has been very quiet for altcoins so far, with even the recently active Ripple settling down near the $0.46 level. XRP is around the midpoint of Monday’ s range but the lack of follow-through after the breakout from the triangle consolidation pattern is a negative sign, and the coin remains on a short-term sell signal in our trend model. Strong resistance is still ahead at $0.51, $0.54, $0.57, while support is found near $0.42, $0.375, and $0.35.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum continues to hover around the $200 price level still being in bearish short- and long-term patterns and the relative weakness of the second largest coin remains a huge concern for the whole segment.

With no evidence of meaningful capital inflows to the market, the outlook is neutral at best, and traders and investors should wait for at least a short-term trend change before entering new positions. Strong support is found near $180, $170, and $160, while resistance is ahead near $235 and $260.

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS is also among the relatively weaker coins, and the coin is stuick in a broad Trading range around the $5.35 level since August. Volatility in the coin’s market has been progressively declining, but the vicinity of the bear market low suggests that the long-term downtrend is still intact, especially given the segment-wide trends.

A test of the lows is still more likely than a bullish break-out, with strong support found near $4.50 and key resistance ahead near $6 and $6.5.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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