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5 Things to Watch Next Week: Bitcoin’s Fork, the Oil Rally, the Dollar, Apple, and the $1300 level in Gold

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1. Bitcoin’s Big Day is Here

Bitcoin’s future got a lot clearer in the past two weeks, as the surpassingly quick miner lock in of the BIP 41 proposal, the following BIP 141 lock in and the SegWit finalization opened up the way for a smooth transition. The Bitcoin Cash hard fork initiative failed to gain traction, despite an initial surge, and the brief correction in Bitcoin faded away in the second half of the week, although the weekend ended up to be slightly bearish for BTC. With all the positive developments in mind, we still expect nervous trading leading up to August 1, as several exchanges will halt trading, which could lead to a low-liquidity environment. With the long-term technical picture still being favorable for the currency, and for the whole segment, adds favor rally towards the back end of the week.

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Bitcoin, Daily Chart Analysis

2. Oil at $50 as Goldman Sachs Sees Balancing of Fundamentals

Oil had a nice run in the past two weeks, as it continues its orderly range trading from a technical viewpoint. The WTI contract is back at the crucial $50 level, with the help of the strong decline in the Dollar, the prospects of slower tightening by the Federal Reserve, the positive news regarding the OPEC production cut deal, and the slower growth of the US output. While these factors are definitely favorable, the growing share of the shale industry means that output is much more flexible than it has ever been, and prices will likely be capped thanks to that. The slow global growth, and the weak demand are also long-term challenges for the commodity and we don’t expect a major move above the prior highs at $54. And as Goldman issued a “cautiously positive” outlook, one might wonder if they are already on the other side, selling or even shorting oil here.

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WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

3. Dollar Still Hitting New Lows before Jobs Friday

This week delivered two major blows to the already struggling Greenback, as the dovish Fed-statement was followed by a prelim GDP report that showed very weak inflationary forces. While we still expect the Fed to start normalizing its balance sheet this year, the economic cycle seems to have peaked, and with the mountain of debt still on the back of basically all developed nations, it’s hard to imagine interest rates back at the “old normal” of 4-5% anytime soon. That said, the Dollar might still lose ground compared to the Euro, as the ECB will likely follow the FED as usual, but we see this trend as a cyclical bull market, within a secular decline for the common currency against the USD. The next big impulse will likely come on Friday again, with the ever crucial US Employment Report.

4. Another Big Earnings Week Coming

While this week was certainly the peak of the US and the European earnings season, traders will see some other interesting reports coming out in the coming days. Most importantly, Apple (AAPL) will publish its quarterly earnings, and the company that sports $785 billion in market cap is always a huge force alone.  So far earnings were a mixed bag, as AT&T (T), Facebook (FB) and Coca Cola (KO) delivered positive surprises, while Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), and Exxon (XOM) missed the consensus estimates. Markets were as choppy as expected amid the releases, and what’s more, Thursday brought another flash crash in the biggest names of the NASDAQ, without any news whatsoever. We will see if that is once again a precursor of a deeper correction, as it was the case in June.

5. Gold Finally Tops $1300?

Gold investors have been treated well by the market as of late, with the Shiny Metal finally reacting to the economic and monetary news in an encouraging way. We have been urging investors to load up on the dips, as the long-term picture still looks bright for precious metals, and although we are nearing short-term overbought readings, gold will likely test the $1300 level soon. With the bear market that started in 2011 likely being over, further hints on economic weakness could cause a sustainable rally gold, even without a clear signal from the central banks that, in fact, interest rates will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gold, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases Next Week

Day Country Release Expected Previous
Monday CHINA Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.7
Monday CHINA Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.9
Monday GERMANY Retail Sales 0.3% 0.5%
Monday EUROZONE Flash CPI 1.35 1.3%
Monday CANADA RMPI -1.8%
Monday US Chicago PMI 60.2 65.7
Monday US Pending Home Sales 1.1% -0.8%
Tuesday AUSTRALIA RBA Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5%
Tuesday AUSTRALIA RBA Statement 116.2 118.9
Tuesday UK Manufacturing PMI 54.4 54.3
Tuesday EUROZONE Prelim GDP 0.6% 0.6%
Tuesday US PCE Price Index 0.1% 0.1%
Tuesday US Personal Spending 0.1% 0.1%
Tuesday US ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.4 57.8
Wednesday AUSTRALIA Building Approvals 1.1% -5.6%
Wednesday UK Construction PMI 54.2 54.8
Wednesday US ADP Employment Change 187,000 158,000
Wednesday US Crude Oil Inventories -7.2 mill
Thursday AUSTRALIA Trade Balance 1.77 bill 2.47 bill
Thursday UK Services PMI 53.7 53.4
Thursday UK BOE Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
Thursday UK BOE Statement
Thursday US Initial Jobles Claims 242,000 244,000
Thursday US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.9 57.4
Thursday US Factory Orders 2.7% -0.8%
Friday AUSTRALIA RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Friday AUSTRALIA Retail Sales 0.2% 0.6%
Friday CANADA Employment Change 14,600 45,300
Friday CANADA Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.5%
Friday CANADA Trade Balance -1.4 bill -1.1 bill
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls 183,000 222,000
Friday US Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.4%
Friday US Hourly Earnings 0.3% 0.2%
Friday US Trade Balance -45.6 bill -46.5 bill
Friday CANADA Ivey PMI 59.2 61.6

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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Chris G

    July 30, 2017 at 7:40 pm

    Move btc into a wallet that gives you private key access like Jaxx – futures on bitcoin cash are valued at .13 btc so you can make a quick 13% on your bitcoin holding just by having your coin in the right place. To avoid the transaction issues, trade btc to ltc, send to your Jaxx wallet and immediately exchange to btc. I moved all my crypto holdings to btc to make the quick 13%. Silly not to …

  2. Chris G

    July 30, 2017 at 7:41 pm

    I own an oil and gas biz so it’s a good week 😘

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Rally Continues amid Fed Chair Confusion

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Tuesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2554 -0.09%
DAX 12995 -0.07%
WTI Crude Oil 51.53 -0.66%
GOLD 1287.00 -1.22%
Bitcoin 5652 -0.86%
EUR/USD 1.1751 -0.38%

Yesterday’s trends are mostly continued in financial markets, such as the low-volatility levitation in stocks and the slightly more active trading in currencies with the apparent Dollar strength. The Great British Pound continued to be under pressure amid the amplified Brexit-related worries, but most of the other majors also lost ground to the Greenback.

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The Dollar rally has been fueled by the rise in the odds of some of the hawkish Fed Chair candidates, while overall, the “race” for the positions looks more chaotic than ever. Interestingly, the long-end of the yield curve is refusing to follow the short-term moves, and without the effects of the Fed’s QE program, the yield curve would probably be inverted by now, signaling strong recession risks.

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The major stock indices are virtually unchanged yet again and even the previously surging Nikkei entered a consolidation, adding to the unusual October lull. Commodities have been quite active thanks to the Dollar’s vigor, with crude oil and gold both turning lower. Oil gave back most of yesterday’s gains as the Iraqi-Kurdish conflict turned out to be less violent than previously feared, and the brief rally fizzled.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The major coins are having a mixed session at best, as yesterday’s rebound wasn’t durable, and most of the coins turned back lower again. That said, despite the recent choppy price action, the total market cap of the segment is close to its all-time high, even as only Bitcoin is trading near its own record price level.

The optimism regarding Ethereum major Byzantium upgrade wasn’t enough to lift the second most valuable coin today, and the price of the ETH token retreated below the key $330 level after touching $350 yesterday after the upgrade’s lock-in. Ripple and NEO have been among the most active majors today, but with opposing performances, as Ripple fell significantly after yesterday’s break-out attempt, while NEO defied gravity and jumped above the $30 level after a corrective period.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The S&P 500 is grinding higher despite the overbought short-term momentum readings, and the benchmark is trading very close to its all-time high. The 2550 level is still in focus, but until volatility remains near record lows, the minuscule moves are unlikely to change the technical setup. While a sudden drop in prices could quickly negate the recent break-out, the consolidation could very well lead to further upside, as bulls remain firmly in control, despite the lofty valuation levels.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Tuesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
02:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Meeting Minutes
10:30 UK CPI 3.00% 3.00% 2.90%
11:00 GERMANY ZEW Sentiment 17.6 20.3 17
12:00 EUROZONE Final CPI 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
15:15 US Industrial Production 0.30% 0.40% 0.20%
15:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate 76.00% 76.20% 76.10%

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: NEO Jumps as Broad Markets Turns Lower

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As the new waves of regulatory changes keep on hitting the segment, the major cryptocurrencies are mostly lower today. After the major update of Ethereum, and the recent surge in the price of Bitcoin, choppy conditions developed, with no clear short-term trend in most of the coins.

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NEO is the best performing major today, as it surged back to the $30 level after a frustrating period that was dominated by a downward drift.  The coin is now just below the key resistance level, and it could be ready to test the $34 level, with a further target found at $40. The long-term picture still looks positive, with strong support levels at $27 and $25.

NEO/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis

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Ethereum is in a consolidation after the encouraging rally towards the end of last week, while Bitcoin is also correction after its stellar rise. The two largest coins pulled the rest of the majors lower, while Ripple remained very volatile after touching the $0.30 level yesterday, trading below the $0.26 again.

Litecoin, Dash, Monero, and IOTA are all a bit lower today, while Ethereum Classic found some relative strength, although it remains stuck in a declining short-term trend. All in all, the segment is still in a clear uptrend, so let’s see which coins are the most promising regarding the short-term picture.

(more…)

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Volatility Near Record Low 30 Years After Black Monday

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Monday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2555 0.12%
DAX 13003 0.09%
WTI Crude Oil 51.88 0.82%
GOLD 1296.00 -0.61%
Bitcoin 5680 2.95%
EUR/USD 1.1793 -0.25%

Stocks markets in the US are at a standstill near their all-time highs, with the major indices trading in extremely narrow ranges yet again. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, is close to its all-time high, in stark contrast to the average October readings, as this month is the most negative for equities regarding seasonality. In fact, this October is the least volatile ever so far, while this week is the 30th anniversary of the most volatile day ever on Wall Street.

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A Riskless Market?

On Black Monday in 1987, the Dow crashed by more than 23% during one session, as widespread bullishness coupled and novel portfolio techniques lead to a massive wave of selling. Although such one-day moves should be prevented by circuit breaking rules in today’s market, the notion that risk is non-existent in the current environment is as dangerous as it was three decades ago.

VIX, Weekly Chart

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Stocks have been very quiet across the globe today, with only the Nikkei continuing its break-out to two-decade highs yet again. In Europe, British assets were the most active, as the Brexit talks seem to be in quite a big trouble, and that pushed the Pound and the Euro lower compared to the Dollar. The Greenback’s rally put pressure on gold as well, and the Japanese Yen also declined, as safe-haven assets were sold in the calm environment.

Nikkei Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Oil has been very active as the Iraqi army took control of Kirkuk defying the Kurdish resistance, the WTI contract rose as much as 2% before retreating below the $52 per barrel level, and as we speculated during the weekend, the spike is unlikely to cause a structural change in energy markets, and we expect the range trading environment to continue in the crucial commodity.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

Today was a big day for the crypto segment thanks to the Byzantium update of the Ethereum network, and although the hard fork went smoothly, the session ended on a slightly negative note. Ethereum pulled back towards the $330 support/resistance level, while Bitcoin remained stuck near the $5700 level after recovering from Sunday’s dip.

Ripple has been the other major mover of the day as the coin first surged higher and hit the $0.30 resistance just to fall back swiftly below the $0.26 level towards the end of the day. Despite the decline, the currency is still in a clear uptrend, but more volatile moves are expected in its price. Among the smaller coins, Stellar Lumens more than doubled in price after the announcement of a deal with IBM, as blockchain adoption continues in full force, pointing out the sound fundamentals behind the boom in the segment

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Monday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
3:30 CHINA CPI 1.6% 1.6% 1.8%
3:30 CHINA PPI 6.9% 6.3% 6.3%
14:30 US Empire Manufacturing Index 30.2 20.3 24.4

Key Economic Releases on Tuesday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
2:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Meeting Minutes
10:30 UK CPI 3.0% 2.9%
11:00 GERMANY ZEW Sentiment 20.3 17.0
12:00 EUROZONE Final CPI 1.5% 1.5%
15:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate 0.4% 0.2%
15:15 US Industrial Production 76.2% 76.1%

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