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Where’s the Money Gone?

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By now it is clear that we are in the throes of a historic market sell off. Money is flying off the table at a record-breaking pace and it’s affecting everything from stocks to bonds to commodities to cryptos.

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One of my colleagues asked a really smart question yesterday if everything is selling off where is the money actually going?

We know that in most major market sell-offs other assets tend to rise in relation. Gold is usually a benefactor as it is seen as a safe haven and hedge. Many times the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen will rise as stock investors move to hold cash.

In this case, everything is just falling. The answer is that it doesn’t go anywhere it simply disappears.

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Let’s think about Market Cap. This metric is calculated by multiplying the total number of shares by the current value. So, if Apple is worth $180 per share and there are 5 Billion shares so we get to a market cap of $900 Billion. ($180 X 5 Billion)

Here’s the fun part. Let’s say there are only two people on the floor of the NYSE today and one person wants to sell his shares but the other guy doesn’t want to buy. The seller will have to keep lowering his price until the buyer agrees to pay for it. If the price they place the trade is $160 then that becomes the market price.

We then adjust the entire Market Cap to incorporate the current price to ($160 X 5 Billion) $800 Billion. Boom!

With one trade everybody holding apple lost money and the company itself lost $100 Billion worth of value.

Now, between you and me, some of the most successful investors in history have gotten their start in the markets just after a huge crash. So for those of you who are just thinking about getting in, maybe not right now, but very soon, we will likely see the best buying opportunities in decades.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Global Multi-asset Sell-off

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of February 6th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Volatility Spike

We looked at this chart yesterday but already need to check it again as the level of the VIX Volatility Index (AKA the fear gauge) has nearly doubled in the last 24 hours.

In fact, this index has only ever been higher than it is now four times since it was created.

I would like to call your attention to the previous spike (red circle), which occurred in August of 2011. Some will recall that this was the sell-off related to the European debt crisis with Greece, Italy, and Spain dragging down the French and German economies.

Here you can see the effects of that sell off (yellow circle) in the Dow Jones.

As you can see, the Dow’s plunge over the last two trading sessions is already worse than that. If not in percentage value than certainly by number of points shed.

Why is this happening?

Well, nobody has really figured it out just yet. However, we can look at where it all started to get some clues.

As we noted in the daily update (titled: Let’s Take the Power Back) from January 10th. There was a sudden spike in Bond Yields that caused some concern in the stock markets.

Furthermore, the selling pressure really intensified last Friday after the US government reported that the job market was much stronger than expected.

The running theory is that a stronger economy could spur mega-inflation in the United States. Let’s not forget that the US Federal Reserve has created $4.5 Trillion over the last decade and has essentially pumped the system full of money.

Back when they started the quantitative easing program in 2009 there were concerns that all this money creation would eventually lead to large-scale inflation and asset bubbles. So now this is simply playing out.

What about Gold?

One thing I haven’t quite figured out is, if there are fears of inflation, why isn’t gold going through the roof as it did from 2009 through 2011?

Here we can see, it hasn’t budged much since the recent rout began…
One analyst that I heard this morning had a good theory. He was saying that at present time stocks traders are panicking. As their accounts go into margin call, they need to free up some cash in order to support their positions. Gold and oil are easy targets to close positions in the green to support those red positions.

What about Crypto?

Crypto is just as much a part of this sell off as everything else in the world. Here we can see the proof of that…

This chart from Bloomberg shows bitcoin in white at the S&P500 in yellow since January 23rd. Notice any similarities???

So, to conclude we must try and think of a trigger for all this. One idea that I’m playing with is that it may have something to do with Korea. Remember, the North and the South joined together for talks on January 9th, the day before the sell-off in bonds.

I know it’s a half-baked theory but it’s the best I could come up with on short notice. I’d be very happy to hear from my readers if any of you have a clue what has recently changed in the world that would suddenly prompt investors to remove all risk from their portfolios?

In any case, as mentioned above this market volatility can potentially create abundant opportunities. In the short term, I expect that many people will take some losses, even the most diversified investors will get a draw down, but for those who know how to react to such events we’ll be seeing great gains.

Let’s make it an amazing day!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation. The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro. Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose. Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 85 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. fwheban@gmail.com

    February 6, 2018 at 2:14 pm

    well then… can’t wait for your tips to buy the dips!

  2. winthorpeautomatons

    February 6, 2018 at 3:05 pm

    I believe the real money moved into bonds and we are seeing that in large volume. The stock market has been the real earner lately, but now things are changing and it’s back to bonds.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Ethereum Back Above $700 as Coins Rise but Buy Signals Still Lacking

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The major cryptocurrencies are all sporting gins today, with Ethereum, EOS, Stellar, and Monero leading the way higher percentage-wise. Despite the rally, the short-term technical setup is unchanged in most cases, with the top coins still on neutral trend signals, and with no buy signals having been triggered just yet.

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From a technical standpoint, Ethereum is still clearly the coin to watch, as the price of the ETH token rose back above $700 today, showing relative strength yet again, getting close to a short-term buy signal.  While a signal is not confirmed yet, a break out from the bullish corrective pattern could be near.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The coin faces strong resistance between $735 and $780, with targets above that at $845 and $900, while support is found between $625 and $645 and between $555 and $575. We still advise traders to wait before entering new positions here, even as the correction lows are likely in.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin is still stuck below the key $8400-$8700 zone after it hit another marginal new correction low near $7900. Although BTC is not a buy signal, the downside momentum is fading and the coin could be close to a breakout of the correction pattern, despite its recent relative weakness. Strong support is still found between $7650 and $7800, while resistance is ahead between $9000 and $9200, $10,000, and $10,500.

New Leadership yet to Form

IOT/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the leaders of the April rally are trading consistently with an ongoing uptrend, for now, there are no standout performers spearheading the rally among the majors. EOS is still holding up above the $12 while the other prior leader IOTA is also trading above key support at $1.7 but without clear bullish momentum. Should the coin move above the $1.9 resistance, the short-term trend signal would switch to buy, but as of now, the corrective pattern is intact.

As the long-term charts are looking more constructive after the pullback, long-term investors could soon be looking for entry points,  while traders could also get buy singles in the coming days.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 253 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Remains Under Pressure as Divergence Deepens

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The segment has been drifting lower in a choppy fashion ever since our latest look at the long-term charts and the two-faced nature of the market is still apparent. Bitcoin and the other relatively weak majors, like Litecoin, Monero, Dash, and NEO are clearly lagging the leaders from a technical standpoint, while Ethereum is still the most positive out of the largest coins.

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The leaders of the rally are still holding up above the crucial support levels, keeping the recovery intact but as the overbought long-term readings are mostly cleared, the coins should start to show signs of bottoming soon. For now, we advise traders and investors to remain on the sidelines in the case of the majority of the coins until the short- and long-term time frames show conflicting trends.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin didn’t reach a severely overbought momentum reading as the move above $10,000 failed, and the coin started a correction off that level and dropped below the $8400 support in the process. The short-term corrective pattern is intact, while the long-term MACD is in neutral territory again.  Key long-term support is found just above $7650 and in the $6150-$6250 zone while further resistance is ahead between $9000 and $9200 and near $10,000.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum is holding up above the $625-$625 support zone, within a short-term correction pattern, while the long-term momentum indicators are still above neutral territory. The trend signals are neutral in case of the second largest coin, and traders and investors should wait before entering new positions. Resistance zones are ahead between $735 and $780 and near $845, while support is found between $555 and $575.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 253 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Cryptocurrency Prices Approach One-Month Lows as Altcoins Plunge, Bitcoin Falls Below $8,000

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Crypto prices were down sharply at the start of Friday trading, with the total market capitalization falling $22 billion over the past 24 hours.

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Market Update

At the time of writing, cryptocurrencies were collectively valued at $361.6 billion, according to the latest data from CoinMarketCap. The asset class peaked above $391 billion roughly 20 hours ago.

Trading volumes slipped to roughly $18.8 billion, with Hong Kong and South Korean exchanges accounting for the largest share of total activity.

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Like previous declines, the bulk of the losses were concentrated in the altcoin class, allowing bitcoin to boost its market share to nearly 38%.

Bitcoin prices breached the $8,000 floor early Friday, with prices shedding 4.8% to $7,974.

In terms of percentage losses, IOTA was the worst performing cryptocurrency in the top-ten. The coin shed 13% to $1.67.

Bitcoin cash continued its post-fork decline, with prices shedding 9.1% to $1,183. BCH is currently trading near its lowest level in a month.

Ethereum prices declined 6.6% to $664. Ripple’s native XRP currency was down more than 7% at $0.658.

Cryptocurrencies are on track for their second consecutive weekly decline, with prices shedding nearly 14% from last Friday.

New Study Quantifies Bitcoin Mining Energy Consumption

The first peer-reviewed study examining bitcoin’s energy consumption was released Wednesday, and the results aren’t endearing.

Research that appeared in a monthly publication by Cell Press estimates that bitcoin mining consumes at least 2.6GW of power, which is equivalent to the entire electric power grid harnessed by the Republic of Ireland. The report, titled Bitcoin’s Growign Energy Problem, predicts that power consumption from mining could reach 7.7GW before the end of 2018. That’s roughly the same amount as electric that Austria currently requires.

Author Alex de Vries made it clear in his report that the numbers he is using are speculative given the decentralized and secretive nature of the mining industry. The paper shows that current energy consumption could be as low as 2.6GW if we factor in the latest and most efficient mining hardware from Bitmain.

The so-called energy problem associated with bitcoin is expected to become more cumbersome as the network’s size increases. Some have speculated that mining could account for 5% of global energy consumption in the future.

Globetrotting crypto miners are constantly on the look out for the best energy deals, especially in the wake of China’s ban on the practice. Interestingly, several countries have stepped forward to highlight their favorable energy policies toward miners.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 403 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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