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Trade Wars? Crypto Buying Opportunity

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For all the talk of trade war, the current environment has opened up some compelling buying opportunities.

Stock Market Pullback: This Too Shall Pass

It didn’t take long for the stock market to react to news of Gary Cohen’s resignation from his job advising POTUS.  After opening down 150 points the Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to slide. At the time of this writing, the market was off nearly 400 points.

We chose to focus on the old line Dow 30 companies which are assumed to be the most affected in the wake of the Cohen exit.  The departure takes place just after last weeks threatened tariff increases by The White House that may have accelerated Cohen’s departure.  Either way, Cohen represented the voice of free trade.

His successor is expected to be Peter Navarro who along with Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross supports protectionists trade policies.  In a market climate that was just recovering from it recent sell off, investors are showing their fears.

Why We Should Not Run For Cover

Whenever the lunatics take over the asylum no one knows what to expect next.  Why is this time any different? Well for one thing let’s examine POTUS’s MO. As a negotiating tool, Trump has always love creating chaos.  It has served him well as a private businessman. For better or worse, he has used it in his time in Washington.

Bluster may cost him points in the popularity polls but we all know that matters little to him. Bluster is what he used in the whole silly mess over the border wall with Mexico as well as the immigration issue.  As Shakespeare wrote, lots of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Ok, Ok, that may be too harsh. In Trump’s case, the sound and fury signifies strategy.

No Great Secret

No matter who is advising POTUS, the game plan is no secret.  Renegotiate NAFTA withdraw from the Trans Pacific Partnership and build his political capital with large U.S. manufacturing corporations.  

The fact that higher tariffs on steel and aluminum were targeted was a matter of picking the lowest hanging fruit.  There is a worldwide glut of these commodities and yet prices are far to high caused by excessive foreign government subsidies.  Here Trump has an easy target but things get a whole lot more complicated when other tariffs are considered. It is call trade retaliation.  Students of history are reminded how trade wars set the stage for the last world war. Trump is not that foolish.

Investors may have reason to be concerned over valuations placed on the stock market.  After all, they have not been this high before so nerves are understandably on edge. At some point yields on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note are going to pull money out of stocks. However, Gary Cohen’s departure is not going to change the shape of the world, it will still be round.

Currency Markets Reaction Is Mild

The currency markets reacted pretty much as you would expect to trade fears.  The dollar was down against the Euro and most Asian currencies at the outset of trading in New York but by midday things looked like any other day.   If there was genuine concern over the future trade policies of the United States, the currency markets would have been in turmoil.

Cryptocurrency Values

What is going on the the price of crypto given the stock market behavior.  If investors are truly fearful and wish to protect themselves for possible trade wars, they should be eyeing things like bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple etc.  Instead the crypto market is conspicuously weak. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin was down about 6% while Ether fell 13%.

On a day like today, fundamentals don’t seem to be playing much of a role in pricing.  Take Ripple XRP for example. This morning the company announced it had developed a blockchain payment app in cooperation with 61 banks to speed up transactions in Japan. At last check of XRP, the price was down more than 8%.  Will somebody please explain why this is not a good time to be buying crypto?  

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 114 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Cardano Price Analysis: ADA/USDT is Eyeing a Big Move Out of Current Technical Setup

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  • Positive update from IOHK audit of Icarus by Kudelski Security.
  • ADA/USDT is moving within a pennant pattern formation, subject to breakout.

Solid Icarus Audit reported by IOHK

IOHK recently announced in their forum that an audit was conducted by Kudelski Security, which is an independent and third-party security audit firm. The audit conducted demonstrated that the Icarus project implementation for Cardano looks all good and set to go, without any major problems. However, a few changes may need to be executed. IOHK developed the Icarus code as a reference implementation, for Cardano light portfolio.

The important of “independent audits, like this one was stressed by IOHK. Stating “they are critical for identifying security issues in the Icarus wallet, that may not have been identified by internal audits”.

Furthermore, IOHK has elucidated Icarus as an open source code base serving as a reference for the creation of safer and easier mobile wallets for Cardano. They said, “this guarantees our customers and clients the safest portfolio we can offer.”  Given the benefit of an external audit, the developers can resolve any problems identified during its product launch audit.

Positive Updates from Cardano Founder

Cardano’s founder, Charles Hoskinson, was recently commenting on Cardano’s future. He said “We have so many amazing things coming out.”

Mr Hoskinson further added that one of their scientists has flown in from Switzerland. They will be doing a video, which will be the first time they have ever talked about their sharding design that we have for Cardano. Further commenting on other updates, including videos about Shelley and the Rust project.

Technical Review – Daily Chart

ADA/USDT daily chart

ADA/USDT is moving within a triangular pattern or a pennant formation, as seen via the daily time frame. It is narrowing, moving closer to a breakout. Ranging ahead of another drop to the deep south. Although, fundamental developments coming out from the Cardano foundation, remain very much upbeat currently.

Over the past 8 days, the price has been grinding higher, after receiving support at the lower trend line of the above-mentioned pattern. In terms of resistance to the upside, this can be seen at 0.08310000. The upper tracking trend line. Further north, a supply zone is running from 0.09000000-0.09500000. ADA/USDT  last traded here on 23rd September. Finally, support is tracking at 0.071800000, lower part of the pennant, also within a demand area. Another strong buying territory is observed from 0.06500000-0.06000000.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 33 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Why Would Anyone Have Faith In Tether?

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I don’t want to get sued for slander so let me explain the reasoning beyond today’s title. After all of the turmoil surrounding Tether on Monday, how can the price be anywhere near the $1 parity level with the US dollar?  After more than a year, how can anyone have confidence in Tether and their common law partners Bitfinex when, for example, Circle, backed be the highly respected Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs offers an alternative?  We should also mention that Circle is just one of many so called stable coins.

It isn’t hard to find a list. Exchanges are feverishly adding stable coins. Singapore based Houbi is adding Paxos Standard Token (PAX), True USD (TUSD), Circle (USDC) and Gemini (GUSD).  

When Stable Coins Cause Instability

Well, the evidence is mounting as the months move along that so called stable coins can have the power of creating anything but stability.  This week’s experience with Tether, Bitfinex and the price explosion of Bitcoin demonstrates that there are still dangers lurking. This is why trust is important.

Monday’s gyrations were not the first questionable moment for Tether.  The coin, which gains its intended stability by being tied on a one for one basis with the US dollar, has been the subject of questionable behavior all year.  

As far back as January trade sources were expressing concern the Tether was responsible for last December’s major price bubble in Bitcoin.  The frenzy over Bitcoin set off speculation across the entire crypto spectrum. But that was just the beginning.

In June Bloomberg reported on a paper by John Griffin, a finance professor at the University of Texas, that among other things claimed 60% of last year’s price move in Bitcoin was the result of manipulation surrounding Bitfinex. That directly implicates Tether.

Using algorithms to analyze the blockchain data, Griffin’s team found that purchases with Tether were timed following market downturns and result in sizable increases in Bitcoin prices. Less than 1% of hours with such heavy Tether transactions are associated with 50% of the meteoric rise in Bitcoin and 64% of other top cryptocurrencies.

These findings prompted the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to step in with a series of subpoenas.

Tether’s coins had become a popular substitute for dollars on cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide, and for good reason. They are anonymous, closely tied to the value of the US dollar and can be used in exchange for Bitcoin, Ether or about 10 other cryptocurrencies.  Tether is closely associated with Bitfinex, with whom they share common shareholders and management.

Bitfinex has offices in Hong Kong but it is legally headquartered in the British Virgin Islands. In May they announced plans to move to Zug, Switzerland. Bitfinex has a sorted history of poor security, having lost nearly $100 million worth of Bitcoin from customer accounts. Moreover, while claiming to have total one for one US dollar backing for each Tether, real proof is absent.  

Further Evidence of Manipulation

Over the course of this year, as we have gathered digitally to witness the loss of nearly $600 billion in crypto value, everyone has been looking for the culprit. When I first read of some of the academic studies that blamed the advent of futures trading on the CBOE, I laughed. Honestly, I believed the real cause of the rise and fall of crypto were a well connected group of billionaires that together had the power to move markets.  

Well the folks at Chainalysis have just produced some surprising research results. Their Blockchain Intelligence Platform powers investigation software for some of  the world’s top institutions. These guys don’t do surveys, the have their hands on big data that is able to detect some interesting stuff.

Chainalysis released a new report last week showing that the so called Bitcoin whales are not responsible for price volatility. The study examined the 32 largest BTC wallets, which reportedly represent 1 million BTC, or around $6.3 billion. That is a pretty solid sample size.

The data revealed that the BTC whales are do not act in concert with one another. In fact not only are they a diverse group but about two thirds behave like longer term investors. Instead of being FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) types, on net they have traded against the heard buying on price weakness.

Putting The Pieces Together

The crypto world is bombarded with globally generated news on an hourly basis. But what does all of it mean anyway? Hopefully this article adds some perspective on what and who has been responsible for the direction of crypto prices over the past year.  As more of these weak players are identified and depleted of their business, real investors will have the confidence to return to the market.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 114 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Why Investors Should Be Paying Attention to Digitex Futures Token

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Right now, to say cryptocurrencies are in a bit of a valley is an understatement. Since January 2018, there has been a consistent downtrend or plateau for much of the year. We’ve heard many crypto-naysayers declare that this is the death of crypto, or that these assets are only now trading at their fair market value, but there is a more likely situation.

Cryptocurrencies are in a natural part of the market cycle where they have dropped a lot, are consolidating, and will eventually go through another bubble and run-up. Yes, this bubble will crash again, but at a higher valuation. This is how many market cycles have gone for nearly every asset from equities to gold.

Making Bets on Crypto’s Return

So the next question to ask is: what should you do if you want to bet on cryptocurrency having a swift comeback. Now, we are going to use a metaphor here. If you invest in a car company, you need that company to do well, whereas if you invest in gas companies, no matter what car company does well, the demand for your product is going to go up.

By that logic, it would be considered wise to find ways to bet on trading exchanges in the cryptocurrency space. Not all of them have ownership up for grabs, but there are some companies (i.e. Kyber Network) that operate in the trading space and have a token available.

More Ways to Enter This Market

Another company that is doing great work in this area is Digitex Futures. They have found a way to eliminate many of the transaction fees that would normally occur on a trading exchange.

As a futures exchange, the platform operates based on “bets” that are made regarding the future prices of cryptocurrencies. By not taking custody of the actual tokens, it becomes simpler to operate a decentralized ledger for the platform.

This is done by having their token be the “currency” by which traders are making their bets based on the price of BTC in terms of USD. DGTX (Digitex Futures Tokens) are paid out accordingly, and traders will naturally need them in order to make futures bets.

Digitex Futures is able to operate with zero transaction fees because they fund the platform by selling off a small amount of DGTX every year. This creates stable growth within the platform by limiting the supply in a measurable way.

A New Opportunity

Recent performance of Digitex Futures Token (DGTX) has been aggressive, to say the least. In the last week the tokens are up 55.2%, and are now trading at $0.12 per token. The market cap is still extremely small, at $85.24 million, but it is continuing to climb.

If you believe that cryptocurrencies are going to have a strong resurgence, then it might be wise to get ahead of the trend and look at the leading variables. As trading volumes increase, price levels will increase as well. Digitex Futures has a uniquely structured business model that creates inherent demand for their token and right now is a prime buying opportunity.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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