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Trade Recommendation, June 20th

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XRP/BTC: Short-Term Buy

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XRP/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP’s price moved above the 0.000115 BTC level in active trading this morning, triggering a buy signal with a stop below the prior swing low below 0.0001. The move comes after a more than one-month-long consolidation, which brought the pair down by more than 60%. The primary target for the move is at 0.000145 and at 0.00016, and a re-test of the prior high at 0.00024 is also in the cards in the coming weeks. Ripple trades in a volatile fashion during its moves, so trading sizes should be controlled, as 20-30% daily moves are not uncommon for the currency.

Longer term positions could also be opened here with a stop under the key 0.00009 level, that served as a base in the recent consolidation. The MACD produced a buy signal today after an extended period of neutral readings. Ripple is also breaking out from a long-term consolidation pattern against the Dollar, moving above the 0.30 level, but it faces strong resistance at 0.32, and the BTC pair looks more promising.

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XRP/USDT, Daily (long-Term) Chart Analysis

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 275 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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14 Comments

14 Comments

  1. amburgemeester

    June 20, 2017 at 2:37 pm

    Nice recommendation, but when this post was published XRP was already at $0,326. So how should we take this trading advice?

    • Mate Cser

      June 20, 2017 at 3:44 pm

      The trade is still on, I think that the small differences between the exchanges (I trade the XPR/Tether USD pair) don’t change the setup. The Poloniex chart was just a few minutes old at publishing. Let me know which exchange you trade and I can help with the exact levels.

      • 31strong

        June 21, 2017 at 6:40 am

        The exchange i mainly trade is bithumb in korea. So could you give me a hand more detail?

  2. awgregory

    June 20, 2017 at 6:14 pm

    Can you elaborate how the BTC pair can be more promising unless you are implying BTC will be pulling back vs the dollar? “but it faces strong resistance at 0.32, and the BTC pair looks more promising.” Otherwisee, If the .32 resistance stops the XRP/Dollar Pair it will also stop the XRP/BTC Pair, no?

    • Mate Cser

      June 20, 2017 at 6:28 pm

      Hi awgregory, thanks for the question. Yes, I expect Bitcoin to underperform XRP, and the BTC-pair to rise even if Bitcoin pulls back. That’s why I wrote it’s more promising.

      • awgregory

        June 20, 2017 at 6:38 pm

        What would happen in terms of dollars in that scenario?

  3. ezra

    June 20, 2017 at 6:54 pm

    what do you think about XRP long term? is there a good buy against USD? its been hovering around .33 USD. ive been reading around that it looks bullish.

  4. flogy4031

    June 20, 2017 at 7:55 pm

    What just happened?! the massive price drop… Is it possible for the XRP price to be “manipulated” ?
    Thanks

    • Mate Cser

      June 20, 2017 at 9:01 pm

      It was a move in all altcoins and Bitcoin, in fact, other markets as well after Trump tweeted about North Korea.

  5. chrisclark

    July 6, 2017 at 5:35 pm

    This trade is still showing as active, but I’m pretty sure it stopped out. Also, the current price showing on the recommendations page is off by an order of magnitude.

    • Mate Cser

      July 6, 2017 at 6:34 pm

      Hello Chris, yes the trade is below the suggested stop, but we kept it ob because Ripple tends to explode suddenly and it makes sense to keep the position. For transparency I didn’t change the stop (admitting that the timing was off). Sorry for the typo, it’s corrected.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Consolidate Above Support but Downtrend Still Intact

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It has been a very quiet weekend for the major cryptocurrencies so far, as the predominantly bearish week ended with range trading and a collapse in volumes across the board. Most of the top coins failed to gain back the ground they lost during the steep selloff, with only Binance Coin and VeChain showing meaningful bullish momentum.

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The relatively strong Ethereum, EOS, and Ripple remained stable, with ETH hovering around the $500 level, EOS trading north of the key $10 support despite the network’s technical issues, and Ripple being stuck in a narrow range just below the widely-watched $0.54 resistance level. The total capitalization of the market has been virtually unchanged at $280 billion, as both Bitcoin and Ethereum flatlined.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin is trading right at the short-term support level near $6500, holding up just above the April low, with the crucial long-term support zone near $5850 that is vital for the whole segment. The coin is clearly in a short-term downtrend, while also being relatively weak on all time frames. The oversold short-term momentum readings are now cleared and that could point to a test of the lows in the coming days.

 

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum also cleared the short-term oversold readings, but it failed to leave the vicinity of the $500 support/resistance level. Despite the coin’s undoubted relative strength, and the still bullish long-term setup, the short-term trend signal remains a sell, and the declining trend is intact. Traders should still not enter new positions here, while investors could add to their holdings on the short-term selloffs. Strong resistance is ahead between $555 and $575, while further support is found at $450, $400, and $380.

Divide Widens between Leaders and Laggards

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although short-term correlations skyrocketed during last week’s decline, the divergence between the relatively strong and weak coins got even more pronounced, with the likes of Litecoin, Dash, and Monero severely lagging the broader market. Litecoin got stuck below the $100 level after the breakdown last week, and it is below the long-term base pattern, as it failed to show relative strength during the weekend. Immediate support is found at $90, but new lows are likely in the coming days, as the short-term downtrend remains dominant. 

BNB/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

As a positive outlier, Binance Coin remained bullish amid the broad decline, holding on to the relative strength that it has been showing for several weeks. The coin’s stability is encouraging, and it’s nearing its rally highs with today’s surge, while having a good chance of resuming its uptrend, even as another segment-wide selloff could cause a jump in volatility again.

For now, the market is torn between bullish and bearish forces, and investors should focus on the technicals of BTC and ETH, while also keeping an eye on the leaders of the rally for signs of sutained strenght.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 275 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bull Market in Jeopardy

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As the crucial rally attempt that we pointed out in our previous long-term analysis failed, and the major coins sold off heavily afterwards, the segment is now in a difficult situation. While Bitcoin and especially Ethereum are still in bullish setups, the most valuable coin is now close to a major breakdown that could lead to structural bear market as we laid it out back in January.

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Some of the weaker coins are already below the large-scale consolidation patterns that developed after the year-end run-up, and as the divergence between the leaders and the laggards widens, the path of the two dominant coins even more importance.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin failed to trigger a short-term buy signal throughout the Ethereum-led rally in May and early June, and that technical weakness still persists, as BTC is now trading right at the April low, testing the key long-term base pattern.

A break below the strong support zone near $5850 would be the first similar event since the beginning of the bear market in 2014, and it could lead to an extended period of bearish bias for Bitcoin after the spectacular bull run of 2017. For now, the bull market is intact, with support found near between $6000 and $6275, at $5850 and below that at $5500, while resistance is ahead at $6500, $7000, $7350, and $7650.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Although Ethereum is clearly stronger from a technical perspective compared to Bitcoin, the coin is struggling to hold the key $500 level, as it is resumed its short-term downtrend. The April lows are well below the current price level and the long-term setup is bullish, so long-term investors could still add to their positions during the selloffs. Resistance above $500 is ahead between $555 and $575, while strong support is near $450, $400, $380.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 275 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Bibox Token Down 33% for the Week

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Bibox Token’s (BIX) loss of 11% over the last 24 hours compounds the 33% loss it incurred over the past week, and ends a fruitful period of growth for the exchange token.

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When the rest of the market sunk throughout the month of May, Bibox managed to power through those thirty days, recording week on week growth to the tune of 133%. Between May 8th and June 8th, the value of BIX tokens grew steadily from $0.75 to $1.75.

This morning however, the price of one BIX token suddenly dived from $1.32 to $1.16, before recovering three hours later to reach $1.29. This marks the first major dip for Bibox in months, and even at its current price, it is still more than 200% up on its early April value of $0.40.

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Bibox Token Utility

Binance Coin (BNB) and Bibox Token (BIX) operate on the same basic concept – offer reduced fees to users if they convert some of their funds into the exchange’s specific token.

Binance offers users a 50% reduction in fees, while Bibox pushes that number up to 67.5%, but requires certain stipulations such as trading at least once per week.

Exchange tokens offer an attractive investment opportunity due to their ability to grow organically through regular use. Every time a new coin is listed on an exchange, it offers an entirely new pool of funds which could conceivably be traded with the exchange token.

A glance at the monthly charts of any exchange token reveals a constant pattern of regular spikes – the result of each new coin being listed on the exchange. Similar to Bibox, the BNB token has only risen in value over the last few months – displaying a 100% growth between March and June.

Dangers of Exchange Tokens

Many crypto users have a hard enough time storing their funds on exchanges as it is. And it’s no surprise given the amount of scandal and media furore that crypto exchanges have attracted over the years.

We’ve all seen how quickly the fortunes of an exchange can change. Regulatory announcements can temporarily derail the progress of an exchange; while malicious hacks can completely wipe them out, as in the case of Mt. Gox.

With such a potential for volatility, investors are reluctant to use exchange tokens in great amounts, and tend to keep a small amount solely to qualify for the reduced exchange fees.

However, with the kind of steady growth shown by the Binance and Bibox exchange tokens over the last few months suggests that these could be solid investment opportunities for long term growth.

If some of these exchange tokens can dodge the disruptive influence of hasty regulators; and if their platforms remain secure against hackers, there’s no reason why such tokens shouldn’t be taken advantage of. But those are big ‘ifs’.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 9 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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