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Second Half Cryptocurrency Market Outlook: Why You Must Own Them

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By now we all know the unwelcome statistics. In the first half of the year, cryptocurrencies have been awful investments. The big guys like bitcoin lost 60% while Etheeum  owners suffered just as much. Ripple that wants to call itself anything but a crypto security gets the award for the biggest loser, having fallen 86%, If you are a believer in so called Gen III projects, you were lucky to have escaped with minimal damage.  Two of the so-called Ethereum killers NEO (-68%) and EOS (-15%) showed that when it comes to Ethereum, it is kill or be killed.

So, why is that going to change anytime soon?  An honest answer is that no-one can predict the next move.  Since the spring rally in April, psychology toward cryptocurrencies has been horrible.  Technical patterns have confirmed this over and over. Whenever signs of a market rally appear, sellers come into to quash your enthusiasm.

The Bullish Case Based On Value

Crypto prices may have taken it on the chin so far this year but they are entirely alone. Conventional investors that have been accustomed to double digit stock and bond market gains for years now are having their woos in 2018. If you played it safe in Dow Jones or S&P 500 stocks, you basically have made no money while taking on the risk of holding highly valued securities.  

There was one group of stocks that stood out in this dismal period: technology. As a whole the gang was up over 10%. Interestinglym companies like AMD (up 50%) and Nvidia (up 22%) were among the star performers.  The fact the both design and forge ASIS chips for high speed cryptocurrency processing didn’t hurt them a bit.

As for the rest of the year, today MarketWatch carried the following headline: Brace For A Lost Decade For U.S. Stocks. The story centers on a forecast by Morningstar analyst Dan Kemp.  Here is a quote from Kemp: “Our expectation at the moment is that you won’t have any real return from U.S. equities over the next 10 years”. “The U.S. equity market looks both extremely expensive and very unattractive relative to other markets”.

The key to Morningstar thinking is not just the ogur of higher interest rates but the record high market valuation.  Of course, this is just one opinion in a field where everybody holds their own ideas. Nevertheless, the fact is, Kemp is absolutely correct.  The U.S., and for that matter global markets, are very expensive.

Investors are constantly seeking the best returns and there is no question that cryptocurrencies are at the low end of the price spectrum. But does price alone define value? The answer is no, of course not. What is creating value is the ever growing respect for blockchain technology and the progress of crypto project participants.

The Fundamental Case

Let’s start with the case of mass market appeal for blockchain technology.  In recent days news outlets have reported how Mastercard, the mammoth payment processor, has been filing patent applications left and right for “anonymous distributed ledger transactions via a third party processor.” Skeptics will point out that Mastercard doesn’t need bitcoin or Ethereum to develop its own blockchain.

Absolutely true, but there is one important thing to remember.  Not all blockchain applications are created equal. The moves by Mastercard as well as Visa are designed to preempt competition from cryptocurrencies.  Nevertheless, Mastercard with over $13 billion in revenues from transaction processing fees is not going to start giving away their services just because it is on a highly secure blockchain.

Promising Rookies

For all of the criticism lately of the ICO class of 2017,  some are beginning to justify their existence. Why is it that EOS was one of the better performing crypto assets in the first half of the year? In June version 1.0 of the EOSio blockchain open source software was released.

Among the long list of virtues, EOS offers block confirmations in less than 0.5 seconds.  In today’s world, that is smokin’ fast.

This is just one of many and their progress is attracting a huge increase in capital.

ICOs Are Alive And Growing

So far, 2018 is shaping up as a banner year for ICOs.  Estimates vary as to the exact amounts of capital raised. The figures range between $12-$14 billion based on about 900 offerings.  This is more than twice the amount raised for all of last year. All this in spite of all of the regulatory uncertainty.

It would be easy to dismiss the huge increase as the result of more offerings but the truth is the average amount of capital raised has doubled so big institutional money is finding its way into crypto and recent depressed prices have to be taken into consideration.

Guilty Until Proven Innocent

It is getting easier to point out encouraging news favoring the long term mass acceptance of crypto.  But the truth is the whole group needs to demonstrate lots more of this sort of progress to overcome the negative psychology that has crushed prices so far this year. Nevertheless, it doesn’t hurt that stock and bond prices are finally hitting a wall of resistance. This is why crypto is so likely to be the asset class of choice at least for the balance of this year.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 115 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Altcoins

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis: BCH/USD May Have to Return to $400, Before Big Bull Buying

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  • BCH/USD price action did form a potential double top formation, subject to a move back towards the neckline.
  • The RSI indicates price is oversold via the 4-hour chart view, after bouncing in early hours of Monday.

The Bitcoin Cash price remains firmly on the back foot. As a result, of a top area being produced within a heavy touted supply zone. This can be seen within the $650 price region, which as a result has caused BCH/USD bulls to falter in their tracks north. Back in the very early part of September and most recently on 7th November has seen the sellers pile in at this area.

BCH/USD daily chart

Given the current price behavior it would suggest technically, the bears are looking to force a retreat, Eyes would be towards the neckline of the set up. This would see BCH/USD returning to $410, as demonstrated during the selling pressure back in early September. A likely area to attract buyers back in, a failure however to see this area of support hold, could be very punishing indeed.

Possible Neckline Breach

BCH/USD Neckline

Should a breakout to the downside from the $410 area support occur, heavy selling pressure may be seen. Eyes would then be on for a potential steep fall, down towards $285, the next major level of support. BCH/USD last traded down here on 13th October 2017, after seeing a chunky breach through the above-mentioned neckline.

4-hour Chart View

BCH/USD 4-hour chart

Looking via the 4-hour chart view, BCH/USD price action is moving within a descending channel formation. This is very much subject to a potential breakout to the upside; however, as described above, the price may need to retreat towards $410. Near-term resistance can be immediately seen at $530, which is the upper part of the channel.

The resistance above trend line of the detailed technical set up should this continue to hold; it raises the case to the top formation play out. A breakout to the upside now could send BCH/USD flying back for a retest of the $650 region supply. To the downside, support should be noted around the psychological $500 level.

As detailed above with the descending channel, this could also be perceived as a text book bull flag pattern. Such a move coming into play after a decent run higher, to then cool, ahead of another burst to the north. Looking via the RSI, it did hit a bottom, running into oversold territory. This occured in early hours of today – Monday 12th November.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 45 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

BCH Price Resumes Downward Consolidation as BitPay Backs Bitcoin ABC in Upcoming Hard Fork

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After an explosive rally, bitcoin cash has entered a period of consolidation ahead of a highly anticipated hard fork in just four days. On Saturday, crypto payment processor BitPay announced it will back the primary upgrade of Bitcoin Cash, joining a growing list of entities that are sticking with the so-called “Satoshi Vision” chain.

BCH/USD Update

After a positive start to the weekend, bitcoin cash reversed course on Sunday, falling 5.1% to $530. With the decline, the digital currency is down nearly $120 from last week’s swing high.

Trade volumes have declined sharply since Wednesday, when daily turnover reached $1.2 billion on virtual exchanges. As of Sunday, BCH trade volumes had fallen to $678 million, according to CoinMarketCap. BitForex, OKEx and DigiFinex are the largest markets for BCH trades, based on daily turnover.

The 4-hour chart shows a large drop in momentum for the BCH/USD trade, with the relative strength index (RSI) approaching oversold territory. The MACD is equally bearish.

BCH also traded firmly lower against bitcoin. At last check, bitcoin cash was worth 0.08286396 BTC, down 4% compared with Saturday.

At current values, bitcoin cash has a total market capitalization of $9.2 billion, placing it fourth among active cryptocurrencies. At the height of the most recent value, bitcoin cash’ market capitalization rose above $11 billion.

BitPay Will Not Implement Bitcoin SV

BitPay, one of the world’s leading crypto processing companies, announced Saturday it will support the Bitcoin ABC implementation of the upcoming bitcoin cash hard fork. In doing so, the payment processor said it has no plans to implement Bitcoin SV, the hard fork protocol promoted by Craig Steven Wright, CoinGeek and Calvin Ayre, a well-known casino mogul.

“BitPay has not made any plans to migrate from the Bitcoin ABC implementation of Bitcoin Cash to a different implementation,” the company said in a blog post. “BitPay will closely monitor network conditions and the chains resulting from a chain split. We will send you another notification when we determine that payment risks have passed.”

The payment processor has recommended that users avoid sending transactions leading up to the hard fork, which is scheduled to take place Nov. 15.

As Hacked recently reported, the Bitcoin SV implementation promoted by Wright and others is being rejected by the BCH community. Bitmain founder Jihan Wu has also confirmed that BCH developers are “working together” to remove Wright from the community.

In addition to BitPay, market heavyweights Coinbase and Binance have also announced support for Bitcoin ABC. Individual miners are likely to follow suit should outright support for one version of the hard fork continue to build.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 661 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Coinbase Anticipation Keeps Stellar (XLM) and Cardano (ADA) Afloat Amid Market Dip

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On a quiet Sunday for the cryptocurrency market the only two major altcoins to record clear growth also happen to be two of the coins up for consideration by Coinbase. Both Cardano (ADA) and Stellar (XLM) recorded between 3-5% gains moving into the afternoon.

The other coin up for a possible Coinbase listing, Zcash (ZEC), was down close to 5% over the same period, as the community speculates that a privacy-coin would be the least likely to be next, owing to technical complexities.

Stellar Price Update

Stellar seems to be the popular favourite to be next on Coinbase, judging by social media chatter. And if we take market performance as a sign of intent, then it appears as though traders are singing from the same hymn sheet.

Stellar (XLM) climbed 5.4% in value over the previous twenty-four hour period, climbing from a coin price of $0.256443 up to $0.270373. The ascent was fairly steady across the day, with trade volumes rising 60% in the process.

Anyone looking for short-medium term gains already knows about the Coinbase announcement from back in July, when five cryptocurrencies were singled out for Coinbase’s attention. Following the listings of Ox (ZRX) and Basic Attention Token (BAT), it appeared to be a toss-up regarding which coin would be next.

While this may look like a clear investment signal, especially given the effect Coinbase had on Ox and BAT, it’s probably wise to keep a clear head. Social media searches for ‘coinbase’ are throwing up a lot of Stellar chatter, but such chatter isn’t always authentic.

Technical signals, and the buzz created around a $125 million airdrop compound the growing sense of anticipation around Stellar, although some see the airdrop as a cynical marketing attempt to float a coin that won’t move by itself.

Cardano Price Update

Cardano’s gains were less pronounced on Sunday, climbing 3.5% before levelling off later in the afternoon. The value of ADA jumped from $0.074438 up to $0.077107, then pulled back to the $0.75 range.

Trade volumes remained relatively low for ADA, rising from $13-18 million, with Binance’s ADA/BTC pair accounting for over 20% of the action alone.

The Coinbase Saga

As of November 11th, Stellar is up 10% for the week, while Cardano is up around 1.5% for the same period. Zcash actually appears more likely as an outside bet when looking at its weekly gains of 10% – marking it out as one of the best weekly performers in the market cap top one-hundred.

Anyone looking to ride the Coinbase wave on one of these three coins should take Basic Attention Token’s recent fall as an example, after it lost over a quarter of its value after finally making it onto the exchange.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 88 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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