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Price Prediction: Ethereum Relaxes on Its Journey to Constantinople

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  • It’s Bitcoin’s turn while the Ethereum takes a breather.
  • Three weeks of rising have exhausted Ether’s move in the short term.
  • XRP remains at $0.37 without the strength to follow the market.

We begin the weekly review of the three main cryptocurrencies of the Crypto board. After several weeks in which Ethereum has been leading the market, Bitcoin takes the baton.

On several occasions, I have expressed the need for Ethereum to play its role as a necessary collaborator to see a bullish market. For now, the leader of the Altcoins has begun to play his part.

The ETH/BTC pair reached the level of 0.041 yesterday (price congestion resistance) drawing on the daily chart a figure that is being effective. The direct consequence has been a transfer of capital from Ethereum to Bitcoin that has allowed the King to rise more than 5% yesterday.

BTC/USD Daily Chart

BTC/USD trades at the $4,013 price level after setting a high of $4,005 yesterday. The retracement moves Bitcoin away from the $4,389 level (price congestion resistance), which is the first level to overcome before considering any bullish scenario.

Above this first resistance is the bearish trend line that has governed the market throughout 2018. Exceeding this second price level would place the BTC/USD on the positive side of the trend line, but would not change the overall bearish profile. BTC/USD needs to exceed $5,874 (price congestion resistance and long-term bearish trendline) to consider a general change in trend.

Below the current price, BTC/USD is left with very little help in case strong sales appear. It has only two significant support levels that separate it from entering a free-fall mode. The first support level is at $3,590 (price congestion support). The second support level is at $3,273 (price congestion support and 2018 lows).

Below this level, BTC/USD would go into free fall again and set the course for levels around $2,000.

The MACD in the daily range appears to be slightly bullish. The line spacing has decreased just as we reach the indicator’s zero lines, a typical pattern that should prepare us for increased volatility and a possible bearish rejection scenario.

The DMI in the daily range shows us that the bulls are taking control of the situation. They are above the ADX line and also above the 20 levels of this indicator. The setup is statistically bullish, but I am cautious due to the previous strong bearish trend.

ETH/USD Daily Chart

ETH/USD is currently trading at $153.90, after setting a relative high at$163.74 (price congestion resistance) yesterday. The time to consolidate the 80 % price increase from the 2018 lows has come. In the medium and long-term, ETH/USD continues to be strongly bullish.

Above the current price, the first target is $170 (price congestion resistance). The second resistance level is $180 (price congestion resistance). The third resistance level is at $190 (price congestion resistance). In the medium term, the critical level to exceed is $260 (price congestion resistance and SMA200).

ETH/USD does not enjoy better support levels than BTC/USD despite that %80 gain from lows.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $142 (price congestion support). The second support level is at $125 (price congestion support). The third level of support is at $95 (price congestion support).

The MACD in the daily range shows a clear exhaustion profile after three consecutive weeks of increases. The bullish slope decreases and is likely to be lost this week. The distance between the lines continues to be substantial, so we should not rule out a significant upward movement.

The DMI in the daily range shows the bulls are at high levels and maintain a safe distance from the bears, that continue to have little confidence in their strength and continue to decrease in intensity.

XRP/USD Daily Chart

The XRP/USD is currently trading at the $0.3684 price level. Of the three main players on the Crypto board, Ripple has shown the most weakness in recent weeks. XRP/USD has moved sideways at around $0.37 for over two weeks.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $0.3758 (EMA 50), being the only obstacle to the second resistance level at the price level of $0.4129(congestion resistance and SMA100).  The third resistance level is at $0.4224(SMA200), slightly below the long-term bearish trend line passing through the $0.44 price level. Above this price level, we could move from the current bearish scenario to a bullish side one in the medium term.

Below the current price, the first support level is $0.345 (price congestion support). If the XRP/USD were to lose this support level, the drop to the second support level at $0.32 (price congestion support) could be quick. The third support level is $0.297 (price congestion support).

The MACD on the daily chart shows very horizontal lines that are very close together. It is a profile that indicates the lack of strength that the XRP/USD currently has. The positive data comes from the fact that the lines are still above the zero lines.

The DMI in the daily range shows that the bulls command an advantage over the bears, although neither side of the market has changed its trend level in the last week. XRP/USD shows considerable levels of indecision.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Drift Lower but Damage Remains Limited

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The major cryptocurrencies continue to trade in narrow ranges following last week’s decline and this week’s failed rally attempt. While Bitcoin is stuck near the $3600 support, the other top coins have been losing ground today, with Ethereum dipping below the $120 level, Ripple violating the $0.32 price level and Litecoin testing the $30-$30.50 support zone yet again.

Trading volumes and volatility remain very low across the board, but correlations are still high between the majors, and despite the quiet environment, we haven’t seen bullish signs in the market. That said, the trading ranges that developed this week are still intact, and although the overwhelmingly bearish long-term picture still makes the continuation of the decline more likely, a failed break-down pattern could still develop in the segment, should the top coins recover above their weekly highs in the coming days.

For now, our trend model remains on sell signals on both time-frames in case of most of the majors, and traders and investors should still stay away from entering new positions here, with still no bullish leadership being present.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin is still relatively stable even in the very quiet environment, and the most valuable coin is trading right at the $3600 support/resistance level. BTC formed a volatility compression pattern in recent days, and that formation points to a more significant move in the coming days, with a move out of it being inevitable as soon as this weekend.

Bulls are still looking for a move above $3850, towards the key zone between $4000 and $4050, but the bearish long-term setup continues to favor a dip below $3600, with support zones still found near $3250 and $3000, and traders and investors should still not enter positions here.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum failed to get close to the $130 resistance level again, and as it dipped below primary support, the test of the swing low near $112 is likely in the coming days. The coin remains on sell signals on both time-frames in our trend model, and a move towards the key support zone and between $95 and $100 is likely in the coming weeks, barring a quick reversal above $130. Further resistance is ahead at $145, $160, and near $180 while the bear market low is found near $80

Ripple Under Pressure Again in Weak Environment

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Altcoins continue to trade without a clear direction despite today’s dip, but the bearish drift of the recent days means that the key support levels could be in focus during the weekend, should the volatility compression finally end. The few major coins showing signs of strength haven’t been able to maintain the bullish momentum, like EOS, which gave back yesterday’s gains today.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the market of Ripple is still very quiet, the coin fell below the $32 support yet again, and it remains relatively weak compared to its closest peers. It is also on sell signals on both time-frames in our trend model, and a dip below $0.30 will likely be the next significant move. Further strong support is found near the $0.26 level, with resistance ahead near $0.3550 and $0.3750.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is trading just above the key $30-$30.50 support zone, and it sill failed to get anywhere near the next major zone near the $34.50 price level. Given the hostile long-term setup and the short-term sell signal our trend model, traders should stay away from the coin here, with a move toward the $26 level being likely in the coming weeks. Further strong resistance is ahead near $38 and $44 and with another support level found near $23.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 443 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH/USD Bearish Flag Structure Eyed

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  • Ethereum price has stabilized but is moving within a dangerous range-block formation.
  • ETH/USD via the daily chart view is forming a bearish flag pattern.

ETH/USD price action has stabilized over the past five days, and is moving within a narrowing range. This movement appears to be somewhat expressing potential downside risks after the selling pressure seen in the second week of January. As a recap, the price was supported in its move north from mid-December 2018 up to 7th January. An ascending trend line was proving necessary comfort in this trend higher, however markets bears managed to force a breach. The support gave way, opening the door to a fresh wave of selling from 8th January.

ETH/USD daily chart.

Around 30% of the bull run that was seen in the above-mentioned period has been reversed. Vulnerabilities continue to linger, as ETH/USD trades around key daily support. The level to be aware of is $116.70, which is vital ahead of the big psychological $100 mark. A breach could see a test of daily support at $102, with the price likely to consolidate between here and $116. Given prior behavior around these areas, ETH/USD may be forced to retest the December 2018 low, $83.10. This would likely be the case, should a return of bullish momentum not see a pickup in pace soon.

Constantinople Hard Fork Delay

The stability in price is surprising given the let down for the community with regards to the heavily anticipated Constantinople hard fork. As reported by the CCN team, Ethereum’s core developers called for the Constantinople upgrade to be delayed. This was just some hours before the hard fork was scheduled to go live on the network. ETH/USD fell double-digits on the back of this being postponed. A drop of 10% was observed.

Technical Review – ETH/USD

Looking via the daily chart view, price action is forming a bearish flag pattern structure – the pole which is seen with the fall from 7-10th January. In terms of the actual flag, this is the current range-block viewed. Upside resistance can be seen just ahead at $135, and lower support noted the mentioned $116.70 area. The next major areas of support are the $102 daily pivot point, the December 2018 low of $83.10, and then lastly, the May 2017 low of $65.85.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 110 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Sideways Drift Continues but Sellers Still in Control

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While the bounce on Monday gave some hope to crypto bulls that last week’s plunge was just a correction in an ongoing broader counter-trend move, so far, we haven’t seen meaningful follow-through. That means that the bearish short- and long-term trends are still dominant in the segment and sellers are clearly in control of every major top coin.

Also, while volatility is relatively low, correlations are still elevated, and volume patterns are bearish as well, so our trend model remains on sell signals with regards to the overwhelming majority of coin on all time-frames. Traders and investors are still advised to stay away from entering new positions, as we have no evidence the bear market is over, and at least the test of the lows is likely in the coming months.

That said, a quick recovery above the primary resistance levels would be a positive sign here, but until we see signs of technical strength, the defensive approach is warranted as bearish risks remain very high here.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin’s relative stability is still the only positive sign among the top coins, but BTC also lacks bullish momentum and it failed to leave the close vicinity of the key $3600 support level. The $3850 resistance is out of reach, for now, and given the clearly bearish long-term setup, traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions here.

A move above that level would be a positive sign for bulls, with further zones between $4000 and $4050, and near $4450, but we still expect a move towards the support levels near $3250 and $3000 in the coming weeks, even if a broader bottoming process might already be underway.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Ethereum spiked higher again towards the $130 resistance level today, the move failed again and bulls failed to make technical progress, with the recent low still being in danger. A sustained push above $130 could still signal a failed break-down pattern, but the lack of bullish momentum points to a continuation of the decline.  Key support is found near $120 and between $95 and $100, while further resistance is ahead at $145, $160, and near $180.

Altcoins Unchanged and Bearish After Choppy Day

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The volatility compression continued in all of the major altcoins as well, but the broad selling pressure is still apparent in the segment. Litecoin failed to get close to the primary resistance zone near $34.50 despite the early-week rally attempt, and it continues to threaten with a move below the key $30-$30.50 support zone.

A breach of support would likely trigger a move towards the $26 level, with the oversold short-term momentum readings now being cleared in the market of LTC. Further strong resistance is ahead near $38 and $44 and with support found near $23, and traders and investors still shouldn’t enter positions here.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple has been showing signs of relative weakness again today, after the brief period of stability and the technical picture continues to be negative on all time-frames, and our trend model is also on short- and long-term sell signals. The $0.32 price level is still in focus, and we still expect a move below $0.30, with strong support found near the $0.26 level, with resistance ahead near $0.3550 and $0.3750.

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash remained among the relatively weaker majors as well, and it still hovering around the $70 price level after bottoming out close to $67.50. A test of the bear market low near $56 seems very likely in the coming weeks, and only a move above the strong resistance zone between $76.50 and $80 would change the short-term outlook for the coin.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 443 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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