Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Enters Correction as Altcoins Break Out
The segment had a very eventful week, considering the cancellation of the Segwit2x fork, the bullish moves in several of the major altcoins, the new high in Bitcoin Cash, and the late-week dip of Bitcoin that stirred up the market.
BTC spiked higher to hit a new record high right after the Segwit2x drama, but the long-term forces got the better of the coin, and it fell more than 20% top-to-bottom, to hit a short-term low near $6300. The long-term setup remains overbought, and we expect further correction in the coming week, with support levels at $6300, $6000, $5800, and $5400. Traders and investors should wait with opening new positions, as a re-test of the previous major break-out level at $5000 is likely before the end of the deeper correction.
BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
The prospects of the major altcoins still look more promising, even after the gains of the week, although volatility will likely remain elevated thanks to Bitcoin. Ethereum and Ripple are lagging their peers in the current move, as first Ethereum Classic and Litecoin, then Monero, IOTA, and Dash took center stage.
This weekend ETC is back in the driving seat, rallying hard today in Asian trading and hitting our next major target at $18. As the bullish setups are still intact in most of the coins, let’s see how the long-term charts look in detail after the busy week.
ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Ethereum is still stuck in the long-standing trading range between $285 and $315, despite the two failed rally attempts above the pattern in recent weeks. Although the coin is still above the rising long-term trendline, we would like to see a confirmation of the trend soon, in order to keep the buy signal intact. The long-term MACD remains in neutral territory thanks to the sideways price action, and targets are still ahead between $330 and $350, at $380, and near $400.
LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Litecoin first hit our initial target at $64 after its break-out than spiked as high as $67, just to enter a volatile short-term correction towards the end of the week. Despite the strong moves the long-term setup is virtually unchanged, with the daily MACD still being in neutral territory, and the coin being among the relatively strong majors from an investment perspective. Support levels are now found at $56, $53, and $51, with further targets ahead at $75 and $82.50.
XRP/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis
Ripple experienced a failed break-out from the short-term trading range amid the altcoin rally, and it fell back into the pattern on Friday, confirming the short-term relative weakness. Traders should wait for a short-term trend change before entering new positions, while investors could add to their positions, as long-term momentum is neutral. Support is still found just below $0.20, $0.18, and $0.16, while resistance is ahead near $0.22 and $0.26.
DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Dash broke out of its lengthy correction pattern and rallied past $330 but failed to pass the $360 level for now. That said, the coin remains one of the strongest altcoins, and we expect a test of the all-time high near $400 in the coming weeks. The long-term MACD is far from being overbought, and despite the likely increase in volatility, the short-term uptrend is also encouraging. Support levels below $330 are at $300 and $265.
ETC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Ethereum Classic consolidated its recent gains in a bullish fashion during the week, attempted a failed move above the short-term pattern on Friday, but surged up to our next target at $18 today in early trading. While the lofty gains of the coin will likely lead to more shot-term corrections, ETC remains bullish on all time-frames, and a test of the $23 resistance is likely in the coming weeks, with key support levels at $16 and $13.50.
XMR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Monero joined its closest peer Dash and broke-out from the lengthy consolidation pattern between $80 and $100. The coin breached our primary target level near $125 before entering a short-term correction, which left the bullish move intact. We still expect a test of the all-time high near $150 in the coming period, as the long-term momentum remains close to neutral.
IOTA/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
IOTA led the altcoin rally regarding percentage gains, as it rallied from the vicinity of the $0.35 level and reached the $0.60 level above our primary target at $0.56 before entering a short-term correction. Traders should still play the developing uptrend, while investors should hold on to their positions here. Support levels are found between $0.45 and $0.48, while further targets are ahead at $0.64 and $0.75.
How to Use These Charts?
As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”
Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:
- Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-month) fluctuations
- Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
- Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
- Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
- Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”
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