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Long-Term Analysis of the Silver Market

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Silver

The silver market has once again caught investors’ interest as the price is nearing areas not seen since late 2008.

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2017 started at a low point for silver, and it seems it will end the year that way as well, meaning investors who bought at the beginning of the year haven’t suffered nor gained much.

This doesn’t mean, however, that the price hasn’t moved during the year. After the low start of the year, silver quickly tacked on about 18% to a top of $17.50 per ounce.

In terms of fundamentals in the silver market, things look a bit complicated for 2018. There are multiple forces pulling in different directions for the price of silver going forward:

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Positives

  • A sharp stock market correction can be expected to occur some time in 2018. Most likely, this will happen sooner rather than later. Stock market crashes always trigger a flight to safety, meaning gold, silver, and quite possibly bitcoin, can benefit.
  • We are seeing signs that inflation may be starting to rise again, although this is not confirmed yet. Rising inflation is always good for precious metals.
  • If the US federal budget deficit widens as a result of the new tax reform, the US dollar may suffer as a consequence. Goldman Sachs put out a note to investors in November 2017 saying that the US debt is “on track” to reach an “unsustainable” level in coming years. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has also said about the US debt that it is “the type of thing that should keep people awake at night.” Rising debt levels creates uncertainty about the economy, which is generally good for gold and silver.

Negatives

  • Central banks around the world seem committed to raise interest rates in 2018. Rising interest rates are bad for precious metals because it would make it more attractive to put money in the bank.
  • The cryptocurrency bull market is on track to continue, diverting attention and capital away from precious metals as a traditional store of value. However, this one is uncertain, as it may also be considered a positive in the way that the rise of cryptocurrencies brings the inflationary and unsustainable nature of fiat currencies into focus.
  • The US dollar may have hit a bottom in 2017 and trade higher compared to other major fiat currencies going into 2018. A stronger dollar is always bad for precious metals, which are priced in dollars.

Silver chart

When looking at the chart, we can see that silver is back down to were it started the year, which coincides with a major support area where it has turned several times in the past few years.

From a technical perspective, silver has been trading in a triangle pattern on the longer-term weekly chart, with the price now trading very near the lower end of the triangle, adding confluence to our bias that silver will trade up from here.

Silver failed to live up to our prediction from early 2017, and is now even trading well below the level from that time.

A low price by any measure combined with two major technical support levels adds confidence to our trade and makes silver a low risk and potentially high reward trade for 2018.

Depending on your own strategy and investment style, you may want to wait for the price to break out from the current triangle pattern it has been trading in for the past year and a half. You would then give up some of the potential return for an even safer trade. After that, major resistance is found around $17.50 and $18, with lots of upside potential if we can finally break through those levels.

Featured image from Pixabay.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.3 stars on average, based on 28 rated postsFredrik Vold is an entrepreneur, financial writer, and technical analysis enthusiast. He has been working and traveling in Asia for several years, and is currently based out of Beijing, China. He closely follows stocks, forex and cryptocurrencies, and is always looking for the next great alternative investment opportunity.




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Recommendations

Trade Recommendation: Verizon Communications

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verizon

As U.S. markets are moving lower, Verizon is one of the few stocks that are expected to move higher irrespective of the broader markets’ next move.

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Technical Overview

  • After breaking from a double bottom pattern in 2010 (lows – violet trendline; breakout above pattern’s interim high – first blue arrow), the stock has climbed higher, finding support at a long-term trendline (green trendline and arrows).
  • Since 2013, the stock has stalled in the $53.70 – $55 range on multiple occasions (resistance range – red horizontal trendlines; retests – red arrows).

Figure 1. VZ Weekly Chart

  • Zooming in, the stock broke above a 2-month resistance (orange horizontal trendlines in Figure 2) on the heels of reporting strong Q1 earnings.
  • Since mid-March, a short-term support has carried prices higher (purple trendline).

Figure 2. VZ Daily Chart

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Implications

  • Filling the up-gap will give a bullish K-Divergence signal. While, on average, almost 85% of gaps get filled within 2 months of occurring, the stock’s strong price action during a broad market sell-off is constructive and this particular gap may remain open in the foreseeable future.
  • The stock is expected to find support within the $47.50 – $49 area if today’s up-gap is filled.
  • Nearest major resistance is at $53.70 (lower boundary of long-term resistance range – lower red trendline).

Outlook

  • Bullish as long as the stock remains above the purple trendline.

 Trade Recommendation

  • Buy half a position at current levels ($49.67 at the close on April 24). Buy another half if the up-gap gets filled and the stock remains above the short-term support (purple trendline, currently at $47.35, rising by roughly 17 cents/week).
  • Target: $53.70
  • Stop: A close below the short-term support (purple trendline).

 Benefits of Recommended Trade

  • A favourable risk-reward profile (roughly 1 : 2). Even more favourable if the up-gap gets filled and the average entry price is lower (due to averaging down).
  • An upward-sloping support used as a stop, resulting in an improving risk-reward profile of the trade as time goes by.

Disclosure: No position but may initiate a long stock/call position at any time.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 10 rated posts




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Analysis

Technical Update: NASDAQ and S&P 500 Approaching their Intermediate-Term Supports

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Technical Overview

  • After breaking their short-term supports (white trendlines in Figure 1, 2 & 3) on Friday (April 20), U.S. indices continued sliding into this week.
  • Given the lack of any major support levels within the range spanning from the low on April 2 to the high on April 18, U.S. indices moved sharply lower on Tuesday (April 24).

S&P 500

  • Next major resistance – the trendline connecting the January & March highs (orange trendline in Figure 1, currently at 2,736).
  • Next major support – the intermediate-term support (ITS – violet trendline, currently at 2,605).

Figure 1. S&P 500 Daily

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NASDAQ

  • NASDAQ’s intermediate-term support (ITS) is of extreme importance as it overlaps with the neckline of a large H&S pattern (tops – red ellipses in Figure 2). A break below the ITS activates a target of 6,000 (vertical yellow trendline). Note, the pattern is tentative until the neckline is broken.
  • Next major resistance – the trendline connecting the March & April highs (orange trendline, currently at 7,265).
  • Next major support – the intermediate-term support (violet trendline, currently at 6,885)

Figure 2. NASDAQ Daily Chart

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DJIA

  • Today’s decline intensified after the index broke back below its 2018 Resistance (red trendline Figure 3).
  • Next major resistance – 2018 Resistance is expected to continue serving as resistance after today’s move below it
  • Next major support – Feb & April lows at roughly 23,350 (green horizontal trendline).

 Figure 3. Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily Chart

Implications

  • Breaks of the intermediate-term supports for both S&P 500 and NASDAQ will carry significant bearish implications, with downside targets of at least 10 to 15%.
  • NASDAQ’s monthly chart depicts why a potential break of the ITS may lead to declines sharper than the ones observed in February and mid-March. Since June 2016, the index has marched higher, in an almost vertical fashion. Upward movement implied by the steep slope of the intermediate-term support is unsustainable in the very long run (violet trendline in Figure 4). Eventually, once the ITS is broken, the index is expected to retest its long-term support (dark blue trendline).

Figure 4. NASDAQ Monthly Chart

Outlook

  • Neutral with a bearish bias. While price action points to a likely retest and potential break of the intermediate term supports, outlook is not outright bearish until confirmation is received.
  • Short- and long-term bearish if S&P 500 and NASDAQ break their respective intermediate-term supports.
  • S&P 500 and NASDAQ need to hold their intermediate-term supports and break above the orange trendlines for outlook to shift to bullish, at least in the short-term.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

ICON versus TenX: What You Should Know

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There are so many cryptocurrencies out there.  As the flow of ICOs continues, more tokens are added almost daily.  It may be some consolation that more the 80% of these tokens use the Ethereum platform and that means their value is connected to the mothership.  It may also help to remember that there are plenty of crypto exchanges that will unload your coin once the ICO is complete.

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That’s fine, but this takes time not to mention the fees that get tacked on along the way.  And if there has been a proliferation of currencies, now about every Fortune 500 company wants their own blockchain.  Instead of putting all of our efforts on figuring out who has the smartest contracts or which is the best crypto, maybe we should look for someone to connect all these dots.  My guess is this notion will be a big feature of Gen IV crypto technology.

Here Are Two Prospects

Of the most successful ICOs in 2017, two are really eye catching for their vision of connecting cryptocurrencies and networks.

TenX claims they will make all cryptocurrencies spendable through a debit card ranked. That vision made them $64 million during their token sale, enough for the tenth spot on the list of largest intakes. 

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The ICON project will be building one of the largest decentralized networks in the world. The total raised of $43 million was good enough for the #13 ranking of top 2017 ICOs. Before going deeper, let’s first take a look at TenX.

TenX Could Be a 10

TenX has an audacious plan to connect digital currencies and in the process disrupt one of the biggest financial monopolies in existence.  They are out to create a massive payment channel dubbed COMIT which stands for Cryptographically-secure Off-chain Multi-asset Instant Transmission network.  How does their white paper describe COMIT? It looks just like the Internet.

In simple terms, TenX is out to get a banking license, then use their own debit card running on the COMIT network to challenge the MasterCard, Visa, American Express monopoly.  The beauty of TenX is the ability to use any coin or token to buy goods and services with one card.

Even if a merchant doesn’t happen to accept crypto, no problem, TenX converts the crypto to the fiat currency.

This is the future of cryptocurrencies.  As bitcoin leads the way with some 10,000 mostly online merchants acceptance of other cryptos will follow. However, the amount of time involved in winning the game will be considerable. We are talking about a startup company attempting to capitalize on mass adoption of crypto as a medium of exchange.  So far fewer than 1% of all transactions fit that category.

Around the year 2000, online merchants accounted for 1% of all retail sales.  Some 18 years later, it amounts to just under 10%.

ICON: Connecting Networks

For those who really enjoy digging into the technical detail, here is how their whitepaper describes the project.

With ICON, numbers of blockchains are connected around Nexus via Portal. Nexus is a loopchainbased blockchain. Nexus is a Multi-Channel blockchain comprised of Light Client of respective blockchains.

Tokens called ICX (ICON Exchange) are embedded in Nexus and the interconnected blockchains can use ICX to transfer values. As a blockchain itself, Nexus can be connected to another Nexus, allowing different blockchains with different governance structures to execute transactions and exchange values.

For us simpler folks, think of the earliest days of the Internet.  Over 30 years ago, the Internet consisted of a bazillion independent networks throughout the world.  Then somebody came up with TCP/IP and presto, the modern Internet was born.

Use cases for ICX go beyond connecting currencies – they connect blockchains and that means doing something akin to TCP/IP.  So we are talking about things like connecting separate health systems and much more.

Just like TenX, the question for ICON is how long their plan will take and will $43 million be enough to deliver the bacon. However, for those investors looking for a Gen IV play, ICON is a candidate.  

Like about every other currency, ICX came down hard from its $9.95 price on January 30 to a $1.89 low earlier this month. Since then it has bounced back and is hovering around $4.30 at the time of this writing.  Raising $43 million may not be enough to get ICON to the promised land but it shows that a lot of serious investors did their research and bought the promise.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 63 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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