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An Investor’s Guide to Trump’s First 100 Days

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100 days. A rather random period of time by which to judge a presidency. The metric came about thanks to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s flurry of New Deal laws in his first 100 days. Studies have indeed found that it’s legislative action tends to come in one’s first 100 days.

At the time of writing, Trump’s approval rating is 43.1 percent – a historically poor return this early in a Presidency. Despite the lack of support, Trump has signed 30 executive orders into law.

Many complaints have been lobbied against Trump’s economic actions. Trump undid a plan made under President Obama to decrease the cost of mortgage insurance for working, middle-class homebuyers. Between 750,000 to 850,000 Americans therefore face higher costs in 2018, the National Association of Realtors conjectures.

The lack of subsidy for mortgage insurers could weigh on their stock price. Private mortgage insurers include Genworth Financial, MGIC Investment Corp., Radian Group Inc., PMI Group Inc., Old Republic International Corporation. Of these, PMI group has a comparably small market capitalization ($5.1 million), thus making it a volatile option (though how much further can it fall at .03 cents?). Moreover, Genworth has already begun to decline. Currently at $4.04, down from $4.10 in the last few days, the price reached its nadir for thus far in 2017 on January 30 at $3.30. It could fall further yet if Trump pursues other, similar policies.

Trump’s Treasury Department nomination, a Goldman Sachs partner and hedge fund manager – who some have dubbed the “foreclosure machine”  – could bode well for industries across the board. For instance, Steven Mnuchin has stated he is “not at all” concerned about the potential shocks to the labor market automation might create. He has posited such concerns won’t be relevant on a timeline of  “50 or 100 years.”

A December report from the White House, however, cited studies which estimate that automation could affect between 9 percent and 47 percent of jobs over the next 10 to 20 years.”

Also read: One Thing is Certain, You Will Lose Your Job

“If President Trump really does push companies to base more of their production in the U.S., then those that specialize in robotics and automation will probably be the winners,”  

says Paul Diggle, senior economist at Aberdeen Asset Management, in a research note.

“Companies won’t automatically employ more Americans. They will rethink their strategies and some will inevitably look to automation as a way to avoid the higher costs of employing U.S. workers.”

Robotics and automation “is where the opportunity really lies for the U.S.,” Diggle says.  

“The U.S. can continue to dominate the world in the development of the automation and robotics technology which all companies are scrambling to embrace.”

That bodes well for Google and Amazon. The internet search engine has been in robotics since at least 2013, and has invested in eight robotics or artificial intelligence firms. Amazon purchased the robotics company Kiva.

Trump’s billionaire Advisor on Regulatory Overhaul, Carl Icahn, could pose a conflict of interest wherein arbitrages to trade are available. He is chairman of developer, manufacturer and supplier Federal Mogul, and his advice as czar could thus benefit tied industries: automotive, commercial, aerospace, marine, rail, agricultural and power-generation applications.

For instance, Icahn has already cheered on Trump’s take on renewable fuel rules. The president nominated Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, a staunch oil industry supporter who is likely to loosen regulations including renewable-fuel mandates, including credits linked to Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). Icahn said Trump consulted with him to pick Mr. Pruitt. New EPA renewable fuel rules could have implications, and ultimately prove a boon, for an oil refinery in which he owns a stake, CVR Energy.

Trump’s Regulatory Overhaul, in general, could boast well for financials. Jamie Dimon thinks operational risk capital should be “significantly modified, if not eliminated”. U.S. banks hold around $200 billion in operational risk capital, the CEO says, lamenting that, should a bank withdraw from a business that created the associated risk, it will still be required to hold the capital.

The Dallas Morning News reported that Texas cattle ranchers represent the “first casualty” of Trump’s “blundering, blustering trade policy.”

Contributor Richard Parker writes:

“By threatening a trade war with Mexico within days of inauguration, the president helped trigger a slide in cattle futures. Mexico is a major export market. By sinking the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the new administration cut off long-sought access to the Japanese market. Now banks have raised the conditions for collateral for loans for ranchers.”

It’s not easy to short cattle ranchers, but you can short the stocks of Farmland Real Estate Investment Trusts, which acquire farmland and then rent that farmland to farmers. Keep an eye on Farmland Partners Inc.

The main beneficiary of Trump’s increased military spending, wealthy military contractors and Pentagon elites, could benefit from Trump’s hawkish rhetoric alone.

The commercial side of the war stock businesses dependent on war have generally sagged due to economic recession.

Biotechs create vaccines and treatments to fight in the face of biological terrorism. But tangible benefits from the research is not easy to come by.

The rebuilders are sent in after a war to reconstruct. Projects run into the billions of dollars. Measuring long-term growth is not easy.

Investors tend to watch these stocks when the vector of war crops up on the radar:

http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/warstocks/

Furthermore, Boeing has developed a good relationship with the president. Lockheed Martin has been cited as a winner thanks to Trump’s defense budget, as has Haliburton. If the defense stocks are doing well, then traditional safehaven gold could hedge geopolitical instability.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 1 rated postsJustin O'Connell is the founder of financial technology focused CryptographicAsset.com. Justin organized the launch of the largest Bitcoin ATM hardware and software provider in the world at the historical Hotel del Coronado in southern California. His works appear in the U.S.'s third largest weekly, the San Diego Reader, VICE and elsewhere.




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Market Overview

Market Update: S&P 500 Joins Dow in Record Territory; XRP Leads Cryptocurrencies to Stability

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Bull pattern

U.S. stocks advanced sharply on Thursday, as pro-growth optimism helped investors set aside fears of a prolonged trade between the world’s biggest superpowers. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market held its ground for a second consecutive day as XRP extended its rally following a series of business announcements earlier in the week.

Stocks Notch New Highs

All of Wall Street’s major indexes finished in positive territory, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching its second straight record high. The blue-chip average gained 251.22 points, or 1%, to 26,656.98. Nearly all 30 index members finished with gains, led by Intel Corp (INTC) and Wallgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA).

The broader S&P 500 Index added 0.8% to close at 2,930.75, which was also a record high. Shares of consumer staples, technology and materials companies were the best performers percentage-wise.

Big gains in tech lifted the Nasdaq Composite Index sharply higher. The index rose 1% to 8,028.23.

U.S. Economy Humming Along

A strong domestic economy has fueled Wall Street’s stellar third quarter. The momentum streak has continued in September, a historically volatile month for stocks.

The U.S. economy under President Trump is the strongest it has been in years, with unemployment falling to nearly two-decade lows and economic output expanding at the fastest pace since 2014. On Thursday, the Labor Department added to the optimism by announcing that initial jobless claims fell to nearly five-decade lows.

The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits declined to a seasonally adjusted 201,000 in the latest week. Labor’s most recent nonfarm payrolls report highlighted a tighter jobs market and noticeable pick-up in wages for the month of September.

XRP Boosts Crypto Values

The combined value of all digital currencies held firmly above $200 billion on Thursday after XRP added $2 billion to its market cap. The third-largest cryptocurrency is surging on reports that Ripple, its parent company, is embarking on several commercialization initiatives.

A Ripple executive announced this week that the company will soon launch a cryptocurrency-focused product based on xRapid, the highly touted settlement service. Meanwhile, on Wednesday, American   banking giant PNC announced it had joined a long list of financial institutions to start using Ripple’s payment products.

XRP jumped nearly 20% to $0.388, bringing its total market capitalization to $14.4 billion.

After a volatile Wednesday evening, bitcoin was back in a stable trading range and holding above $6,400. BTC plunged suddenly to $6,100 on Wednesday before quickly recouping its losses.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 604 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Analysis

Pre-Market: S&P 500, Dow Hit Record High Amid Global Rally

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The major global indices are marching higher in a concerted fashion today, as the risk-on shift that started after Trump’s trade announcement continues in earnest. Asian stocks were up, but not enthusiastic, while European equities are strong, with the major benchmarks being around 1% higher today. The US market is still the island of bulls, and with the surging past the January highs, all of the major indices left behind the deep correction that started with the VIX-induced crash in February.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The S&P 500 is also trading at its record high after the open, and although the Nasdaq is still shy of its respective all-time high, and small caps haven’t joined the party either, the technical advantage of Wall Street is striking.

The Dollar’s dip is clearly helping risk assets globally, even as emerging markets are not particularly strong, since the rising US Treasury yields are making some investors cautious amid the risk rally.

10-year US Treasury Yield, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The bond selloff, or yield surge, is arguably the most important trend of the current market, and as the Fed’s meeting will take place next week and there are no crucial events before it, the trend could even accelerate before the likely rate hike.

Whatever happens, yields are already at multi-year highs across the curve, and the tighter credit conditions will likely further squeeze the most vulnerable countries in the next risk-off period.

Euro Hits 2-Month High as Dollar Still Under Pressure

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Economic releases were clearly on the bullish side today, with British Retail Sales and the Philly Fed index both beating the consensus estimate. The British measure was a huge positive surprise and that helped the Pound and the Euro in hitting two-month highs against the USD, which has been drifting lower against most of its major peers during the current risk-on shift. The EUR/USD pair topped the 1.1750 level before pulling back slightly, while the GBP/USD pair is trading above 1.32 currently.

Copper, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities haven’t followed stocks higher today, with copper and the WTI Crude contract both losing some ground. Copper still failed to show meaningful strength, and it was hurt today by the relative weakness of the Chinese stock market as well.

On the other hand, precious metals ticked higher, with gold edging closer to its one-month high near $1220, thanks to the weakness in the Dollar. Gold might be ready for a stronger rally, as its stability amid the rising Treasury yields is impressive following months of weakness.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 349 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Market Overview

Is Cannabis the New Crypto?

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Hi Everyone,

Cannabis stocks have been getting incredibly high lately and through the haze, it’s not difficult to see why. With the recent push towards legalization of cannabis in the United States and breakthroughs in medicinal marijuana,  many are seeing huge potential in this emerging industry.

Now some on Wall Street are asking the question….

For crypto enthusiasts, the answer seems to be no. A poll that I put out on Twitter a few hours ago is showing that many of my followers have a clear opinion on this one.

The great thing is, we don’t really have to make a decision on this one. Luckily, the rules of portfolio management are in favour of diversification. So we can take advantage of many different trends at the same time. In fact, the more we diversify the better.

Of course, similar to crypto-assets, when we see this type of volatility and short-term gains, it’s probably best to treat these stocks as a high-risk investment and therefore they should probably only be a small part of a well-diversified portfolio.

That said if you are interested to diversify into companies that deal in medicinal marijuana, the eToro @CannabisCare CopyPortfolio is still open for new investors today. The full details on that can be seen here.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Fighting Fire with Ice
  • New Crypto Hack
  • Ripple in the Market

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of September 20th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

The Chinese government has seemingly chosen to fight fire with ice.

Yeah, the above headline made me do a double take too.

Yes, China has responded to Trump’s latest round of tariffs with some tariffs of their own, but in conjunction, they are reducing tariffs across the board on some products for all of their trading partners including America.

Stocks in Asia and Europe are enjoying the new sentiment as it indicates a greater level of globalization than we’ve been seeing lately.

Zaif Crypto Hack

Zaif is not safe. The Japanese crypto exchange was just hacked for approximately $60 million worth of BTC, BCH, and something called MonaCoin.

In comparison, the attackers of CoinCheck got away with about $500 million in crypto, and the Mt. Gox hack ended up with losses of around $450 million.

I’m tempted to say that these two price fluctuations were caused by the hack but it does seem that the timing is a bit off.

News of the hack began circulating about 12 hours ago (as of the time of this writing) and the volatility of this chart was over about 6 or 7 hours before that.

Even still, we can see that the end result of the above was higher prices. So the conclusion is that the hack hasn’t affected the market but what is clear is that Japanese companies should probably be investing more in cybersecurity.

Ripple in the Market

Crypto markets have been remarkably stable over the last few months. Sure, there is some FUD in the market surrounding Ethereum prices and their testing of the $200 mark, but even ETH is up 19% over the last 7 days.

The real winner in the graph below is XRP though. Check the blue line with a sudden breakaway from the rest of the crypto market on Tuesday afternoon.

The reason for the spike isn’t entirely apparent but the staff at Ripple Labs seem rather excited about it. As with the above story about Zaif, the market seems to be reacting prior to the news.

The specific story that Garlinghouse was retweeting was published on Ripple.com on Wednesday.

Either way, it is a positive update for the integration of XRP into the US financial system, so the 20% spike actually seems a bit light.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Best regards,
Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

Connect with me on….

eToro: @MatiGreenspan | Twitter: @MatiGreenspan | LinkedIn: MatiGreenspan | Facebook:MatiGreenspan

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 128 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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