ICO Update: Doing the Math on Real.markets; Rex Reigns Over Property ICOs
We gave Real.markets a 4, and we hope that people are cognizant that that means we expect losses. All the same, we feel obligated to relay some information brought to us by a subscriber.
So to describe the token price evolution they first go from a very strong assumption that yield and user reinvestment is stationary (and not estationary, this is a shame they can’t even write it well) which is absolutely not true in practice and leads to very wide approximations as you will see as follow.
If you follow the math of C(t) the capital at price t, the limit:
lim as n tend to + inf of C0(1+gamma*beta/n)^t is just C0 and not C0.exp(gamma.beta.t) (they first confused C0(1+gamma*beta/n)^t by C0(1+gamma*beta*t/n)^n).
Please recall that if C(t)=C0 that means that capital stagnate over time and token price is always the same, thats probably not what they wanted to say so lets assume they just did the math wrong and really wanted to get the C(t)=C0.exp(gamma.beta.t). What does it mean?
It means that the capitalization grows over time and can never be lower than C0 the initial cap (as lim when x tends to -infinity of exp(x)=0, C0 < C0 exp(gamma.beta.t) for all beta,gamma,t). Which is absolutely impossible to prove. Stock prices are in essence stochastic and subject to fluctuation, never someone can guarantee a stock price will always grow or stagnate.
With this in mind, we want to put a finer point on our rating of Real.markets, and reduce it by half a point. We figure anyone who plans to invest was not investing based on these figures, but if they were, well, they are now so informed.
Rex recently released a development update showing what the platform will look like. In general, the author still feels the approach taken by Rex is the most sensible. While they will eventually seek to tokenize real estate assets like the other property ICOs, it is not their first value proposition. Instead, their first value proposition is one that can definitely make money, disrupting the property listings racket. There were problems during their ICO, but since they were early investors in Ether, they were able to compensate all losses out of pocket.
Readers of Hacked may have missed the following interview between the author and Stephen King of Rex MLS: