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Filtering Through the Nonsense in the Blockchain World

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Having gone through more than my fair share of white papers and reading about more ICOs than I would care to admit, certain patterns begin to pop up in the language. And these patterns are usually truthful, but deceiving on a higher level.

Some of it is the sort of pitch language where the writer has clearly gotten away with themselves using unsupported claims, but sometimes the wording is just put in a deceiving way that not all investors know how to see through.

Making Broad Claims

The number of times I have competing white papers where both companies claim to be bringing blockchain to a space where it has never been used before (when both of these companies are clearly operating in the same space) is a little astounding. Yes, it is possible (and even likely) that both companies were conceived of without knowing about the other, but adding a little competitive analysis into the paper wouldn’t hurt.

And this is ignoring all the white papers which basically re-explain Bitcoin, put a small twist on it, and then call themselves revolutionary. If I’d never heard of blockchain technology or Bitcoin, I would probably fall for this myself. I know it is very unlikely someone would read a white paper without knowing about Bitcoin, but there is something to be said about companies that are willing to make unclear claims once… they’ll probably do it again.

Where Things Get Really Confusing

Some metrics are used time and time again to help technologists claim some sort of supremacy for their protocol. There are two that stand out: transactions per second and market capitalization.

Transactions per second is a simple idea that plays to the worries many blockchain naysayers have. The ability of cryptocurrencies to scale is constantly in question, and the best way to measure their ability to handle a higher capacity is by looking at how many transactions can be processed by particular cryptocurrency. The problem arises when it becomes clear this is a marketing gimmick more than an effective tool for evaluating the long-term potential of a coin.

When Bitcoin implemented SegWit, all the current problems with unconfirmed transactions disappeared and for the time being, there are no more issues with it. Some better questions for investors to ask is, what is the current demand on the system, is the protocol meeting those demands, and what are the plans to increase the capacity in the future?

The other deceiving metric is market capitalization, as it often uses the total number of coins in existence rather than the total amount in circulation. This difference is key, as otherwise, a massive inflation of market capitalization can occur.

For example, this inflation may occur if only half of the coins are in circulation. The company would hold the other half of the coins, and the current trading price is applied to those uncirculated coins regardless of the fact they have never been bought or sold.

A better way to evaluate the market capitalization of companies is by assessing the amount of real capital that has been invested into it. This would give an accurate picture of the aggregate and bankable interest the world has in that protocol, and takes away the loopy financial valuations that can occur when companies count undistributed coins in their market cap.

The Takeaway

These are very simple tips and ideas about seeing through unbacked claims and looking for the right metrics to value cryptocurrencies, but they are extremely important to help prevent overvaluing coins and the massive losses that can come in a market correction.

However, this advice only applies if you are investing for the long-term and not just performing a quick profit-seeking trade. Over the short-term this sort of fundamental information is unlikely to affect your profits.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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XRP Price Analysis: XRP/USD Behavior is Demonstrating Strong Downside Vulnerabilities

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  • Ripple’s XRP was trading up with modest gains in the latter part of Wednesday, just some 0.60%.
  • XRP/USD continues to move within a narrowing range-block formation. The price is subject to a breakout, with risks pointing to the downside.

Recent Price Behavior

Ripple’s XRP is seen holding very modest gains of 0.6% in the latter part of Thursday’s session. Price action remains limited, given the narrow trading range, in which it is moving in. There is a lack of commitment from both sellers and buyers, and as a result a range-block formation can be eyed. XRP/USD has been within the confinements of this for the past seven sessions now. Currently, there aren’t any technical suggestions of the bulls recovering and picking up the mid-December momentum again.

Given the above-detailed price behaviour, risks point to the downside. One of the key reasons for this is XRP/USD moved into consolidation mode after a recent hard fall on 10th January. Prior to the drop, the price was trading sideways, which was seen from 19th December, apart from the freak spike to $0.46 on 24th December. A technical breakout was then observed, as mentioned on 10th January, where XRP/USD dropped a huge 20%. Keeping in mind the described recent journey for the price, similar movements are currently playing out.

Range-block

XRP/USD 4-hour chart.

A breakout is imminent, given that price action is getting tighter. It is worth noting the key levels around this range-block. In terms of the lower support, this should be noted at the $0.3200 mark, the recent low area of 13-14th January. The upper part of this technical formation is eyed at $0.3450, the high from 11th and 14th January.

If the bears manage to force a breach of the above-described, then XRP/USD will quickly be forced to give up the psychological $0.3000 mark. A large area of demand is seen tracking from $0.3000-$0.2500. This has proven to find strong buyers on several occasions – December 2017, August and September 2018.

Furthermore, to see XRP/USD fly the way it has in the past will require a serious amount of upside momentum. Given all of this sideways trading and consolidating, the price is building new areas for itself to have to break down. In terms of upside resistance, this should be noted running from $0.3500 up to $0.4000. Lastly, the price as mentioned earlier, was ranging here between 19th December to 10th January.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 108 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH/USD Bearish Flag Structure Eyed

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  • Ethereum price has stabilized but is moving within a dangerous range-block formation.
  • ETH/USD via the daily chart view is forming a bearish flag pattern.

ETH/USD price action has stabilized over the past five days, and is moving within a narrowing range. This movement appears to be somewhat expressing potential downside risks after the selling pressure seen in the second week of January. As a recap, the price was supported in its move north from mid-December 2018 up to 7th January. An ascending trend line was proving necessary comfort in this trend higher, however markets bears managed to force a breach. The support gave way, opening the door to a fresh wave of selling from 8th January.

ETH/USD daily chart.

Around 30% of the bull run that was seen in the above-mentioned period has been reversed. Vulnerabilities continue to linger, as ETH/USD trades around key daily support. The level to be aware of is $116.70, which is vital ahead of the big psychological $100 mark. A breach could see a test of daily support at $102, with the price likely to consolidate between here and $116. Given prior behavior around these areas, ETH/USD may be forced to retest the December 2018 low, $83.10. This would likely be the case, should a return of bullish momentum not see a pickup in pace soon.

Constantinople Hard Fork Delay

The stability in price is surprising given the let down for the community with regards to the heavily anticipated Constantinople hard fork. As reported by the CCN team, Ethereum’s core developers called for the Constantinople upgrade to be delayed. This was just some hours before the hard fork was scheduled to go live on the network. ETH/USD fell double-digits on the back of this being postponed. A drop of 10% was observed.

Technical Review – ETH/USD

Looking via the daily chart view, price action is forming a bearish flag pattern structure – the pole which is seen with the fall from 7-10th January. In terms of the actual flag, this is the current range-block viewed. Upside resistance can be seen just ahead at $135, and lower support noted the mentioned $116.70 area. The next major areas of support are the $102 daily pivot point, the December 2018 low of $83.10, and then lastly, the May 2017 low of $65.85.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 108 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Binance Coin Price Analysis: Binance Completes 6th Token Burn; BNB/USDT Struggling to Move Back Above Breached Channel

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  • Binace has completed their sixth round of BNB token burning, a total of around 1.6 million.
  • BNB/USDT bulls are retesting a breached ascending channel formation.

BNB/USDT is holding steady for now, with a gains of 4% on Wednesday. Caution can be observed following a breakout to the downside from a rising channel formation. The price had been moving within this structure from around 15th December, when the bulls commenced the most recent upside trend. BNB/USDT had gained as much as 51%, while within the confinements of this. However, all good bull runs must come to an end, and on 10th January the lower supporting trend line gave way to the market bears.

BNB/USDT daily chart.

In terms of price behavior since the break, as detailed earlier, there is a lack of commitment seen. The bulls have stringently retested and been moving underneath the channel but have not got the momentum to break back above at this time.

Binance Complete 6th BNB Token Burn

The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by traded volume, Binance, announced they have completed their sixth token burn. Binance burnt a reported total of 1,623,818 BNB tokens. This detailed burn was for the period between October 1 and December 31, 2018. For comparative purposes, the number is similar to the 1,643,986 BNB amount that they previously burned in their fifth round.

Despite the similar number of BNB being burnt, it is worth considering that the final quarter of 2018 had “brought significant changes in the cryptocurrency landscape”. In monetary terms, the dollar value during the sixth BNB burn was around $9.4 million, versus the $17 million during the previous period.

CZ, founder and CEO of Binance, said, “I’m excited about is Binance Chain and Binance DEX, which will launch soon. From a tech standpoint, it is a major development for the Binance ecosystem. From an earnings standpoint, Binance DEX will not directly increase profitability for Binance, but it will certainly increase the utility of BNB in a big way. That should be good for BNB holders. Binance is also a larger holder of BNB, so we benefit the same way as all BNB holders. The more people using Binance Chain, the more value is created, or the more successful we all become.”

Technical Review – BNB/USDT

BNB/USDT must break back above the $6.40 area to attract another wave of buying. This is where the lower supporting trend line of the breached channel in tracking. Separately, a supply zone is seen in proximity, tracking from $6.20-$6.90. The price has not been above this region since 19th November. Should the bulls gather enough momentum to break above this supply, then a fast move could be seen back to $10.00. BNB/USDT had been consolidating here prior to the steep fall in November.

Looking to the downside, there isn’t much in the way of major support seen until the $4.00 price region. This is where the December low can be seen, $4.12, with a demand zone observed running from $4.55-$4.12.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 108 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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