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Ethereum smashed expectations

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Ethereum smashed expectations

Introduction

This article was posted on Saturday, 12:19, UTC.

Ethereum set a new ATH yesterday.  When I first published last week’s forecast that ETH might double from $17 to $35, I was a bit incredulous.  I was almost embarrassed to point out that one of my setups was forecasting $45. ($45 turned out to be the closing high).

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Yet, we are looking at $51 now, and until this morning there had not been a red daily candle in 8 days (a Fibonacci number) when price had closed at $16.

This brings us back to the age-old question: “What’s next?”

Let’s look at the daily chart:

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I had to adjust my scale to get a usable setup that made sense.  But here we see that the rally closed at the 5th arc, opened there, then blew past the top of the setup before reversing, violently. It is hard to see, but the intraday low was stopped by the 4th arc pair.  No doubt the magnitude of the fall was exacerbated by a ruthless combination of short selling, panic, stops and margin calls.

So, is that it? Probably it is over for a few days at least.  So many traders lost the (paper) profits they had accumulated over a number of weeks in just a few minutes.  It will likely take them a few days to recover from their shell-shock and self-loathing.  But my guess is that the market will resume and reach new ATHs in the not-distant future.  The intra-day spike through the top of the setup above suggests that the (setup) high is vulnerable.

Erik Beann is one of my (still-living) heroes.  He wrote an epic book “Market Esoterica”, which delves into a number of mystical aspects of market action which absolutely defy logic and rational comprehension.  I won’t bother to list them here – most would not accept the ideas anyways.  But one of the points he makes is that price and time are the same thing.  In some bizarre 4th dimension that we can’t even begin to wrap our heads around, the two are interweaved.

For example, ETHXBT’s previous ATH was on 3/13/2016, at .0370.  That date, one year later, was but one day before the vertical move began.  That’s interesting but not exactly awe-inspiring.  But, the price is fascinating.  If you add the price to the date, adding price (370) to the date, you come to 3/18/2017, which was almost exactly correctly forecasting yesterday’s grand finale.

Hhhmmmm………..

 

Happy trading!

 

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgement.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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Jim Fredrickson

Jim Fredrickson

Jim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here. If you do well as a result of suggestions made here, feel free to say thank you :) BTC: 1FUq3GB1Q8zz2JpuBr7YHzVBKnaWoxgmya Follow him on Twitter (@jimfred1276) or email him at jimfred1276 at gmail.

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