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Analysis

Ethereum, ETCUSD and ZECUSD looking tired

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In my last column I suggested that ethusd would be going higher.  If you take a look at the picture I sent in with that column, you can see that at that time, pricetime was at the high point indicated by the red arrow in the picture below. Price was above the 2nd of the 4th arc pair.  This is an excellent indication of the way markets can fool you. It becomes clear why it is important to wait for the close above resistance.  As you can see, the market reversed after the column was written, and the candle closed below the arc.  That was a red flag that caused me to close my position.  If you are following me on twitter, then you got my tweet suggesting that it was a good time to take profits.

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Even though we since had a couple of closes above the arc, I am not yet convinced the rally has resumed.  This could still be the beginning of a larger correction. I say this because the arc is a natural place to stop an advance.  The other reason is that the black vertical line looming to the right of pricetime is the end of a smaller setup.  The end of a setup is often a time of reversal.  I would not buy this market here, and would in fact move my stop losses in very tight.

Just my opinion, of course.  But while I had been expecting this to be a great week, it could indeed be a great week, for the bears…  Be careful…

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ETCUSD and ZECUSD have both hit 5th arcs and end of setups.  They look like they might be ready to correct…

Litecoin on the other hand issued a buy signal.  I tweeted that last night, when the (circled) price closed above the first arc. Targets are $17.50, and $20, though it would behoove traders to wait for a close above the 1st arc of the 2nd pair at least, before buying here (for reasons discussed above in the paragraph on ethusd).

 

 

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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13 Comments

13 Comments

  1. sambkf

    April 30, 2017 at 1:45 pm

    Yep, yesterday after reading your post I jumped onto ETH at 62€. However, I quickly reverted and transferred onto litecoin since ETH seemed to have topped.

  2. Ershad

    April 30, 2017 at 2:06 pm

    Hi Jim,

    Anything on XRP has the rally stopped?

    Regards

    • Jim Fredrickson

      April 30, 2017 at 11:59 pm

      xrp might have a bit more to go. maybe .07

  3. And

    April 30, 2017 at 6:44 pm

    Jim, should we re-enter ETH (it is $74+ on kraken)? Thanks!

  4. Jim Fredrickson

    April 30, 2017 at 11:58 pm

    i would not buy eth right now. there is an end-of setup due very soon. if already long, I would tighten up the stops…

  5. Micheltremblay

    May 1, 2017 at 12:40 am

    HI Jim!

    Good work!

    this is not TA related but more perspective. How far in price do you see ETH go over 5 years?

    • eko6321

      May 1, 2017 at 8:21 pm

      Hi Michel

      I think next 5 years price will be at least 2000usd and Bitcoin will be around 20000usd

      This my own guess, but there is no warranty for anything! maybe next 5 years later all cryptomoney disappear 😉

  6. Parentesi

    May 1, 2017 at 4:08 am

    I left Etherium in and bought more at 72… from my Litecoin. risky and lucky I say.

  7. MSNP05

    May 1, 2017 at 5:04 am

    The purchase i make using coinbase takes 5-7 days to reflect… so it is tough to exit for me.. Is there another brokerage thru which i can trade cryptocurrency almost instantly ?

    Also, i purchased mine at $52, $62 timeline and i see you are recommeding to sell which i cannot until Thursday .. so whats your suggestion.

    Also – how do i trade litecoin ?

  8. adspecialty4u

    May 1, 2017 at 10:26 am

    Sold at 82.50. Was a wild ride yesterday 🙂

  9. tmjaswani

    May 1, 2017 at 3:22 pm

    Hey JF it seem ETH buckled the charts and your prediction..what a ride..

  10. Gabriel

    May 1, 2017 at 6:15 pm

    Wow, good call there!

  11. eko6321

    May 1, 2017 at 8:17 pm

    Hello Jim

    Do you think ETH will get crush ? If yes what will be min. Price

    Thanks

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Up Again as Altcoins Mixed in Volatile Trading

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Bitcoin is at a new all-time high today, although the momentum of today’s move is far below from what we saw recently, and the coin only managed to reach a marginal record high yet again. BTC is now worth $300 billion, and it is still trading right at the short-term trendline, inside a rising wedge pattern that shows a clear momentum divergence.

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With the short-term trend still being intact further gains are still possible, but as all the majors are overbought from a long-term perspective, we still advise investors to wait for a better buying opportunity before adding to their holdings. Primary support is still found near $13,000, with further levels at $11,300, $10,000, $9000, and stronger levels at $8200 and $7700.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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 XRP entered a volatile short-term correction after its two-day surge after giving a short-term sell signal yesterday, and the coin spiked back towards $0.60 before settling down just below yesterday’s highs. The long-term setup also turned overbought thanks to the almost 300% rally, and now investors should reduce their holdings, even as further gains are still possible. Major support is still found at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Ripple Continues Rampage as Litecoin and Ethereum Enter Correction

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Ripple remained in the center of attention in the segment after breaking out to a new all-time high yesterday, and the coin almost doubled in value, climbing above the $0.80 level. The currency concluded a 6-month long consolidation pattern with the move after being the only major on a long-term buy signal in our trend model.

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XRP gave a short-term sell signal today, while turning neutral regarding the long-term setup. Investors now shouldn’t add to their positions, although further gains are still possible, and reducing holdings somewhat is a good idea here. Major support is still found at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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While Bitcoin stagnated, and Bitcoin Cash jumped, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, and IOTA has been drifting slightly lower, although the recent gains are still mostly intact, and the basic setup in the segment is unchanged.

Litecoin fell below the $300 level after yesterday’s consolidation, and the coin faced strong selling pressure in the latter half of the session. The currency remains extremely stretched regarding the long-term momentum indicators, and although the short-term uptrend is still intact, a deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks, with key support levels found at $125 and $100, and weaker levels at $260 and $170.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Falls, Gold Jumps after Yellen’s Final Move

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2668 -0.02%
DAX 13125 -0.45%
WTI Crude Oil 56.65 -0.68%
GOLD 1258.00 1.35%
Bitcoin 16,100 -6.32%
EUR/USD 1.1842 0.73%

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected today, and although the central bank’s monetary statement was slightly more hawkish than expected, the market’s reaction didn’t reflect the much-anticipated move. The worse than expected Core CPI reading that underlined the low-inflation narrative weighed on the recently strong Greenback, while stocks were unchanged after decision and bonds gained ground as yields retreated.

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EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The major indices are hovering near their all-time highs with the DOW leading the way higher, hitting a new record for the second day in a row. While volatility Is expected to remain low as we approach the end of the year, market internals and valuation levels are still concerning from a long-term perspective, and stocks outside the US are also negatively diverging. The action in crude oil could be slightly more interesting as the commodity is starting to act in a slightly bearish manner after a grinding multi-month rally.

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WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Brexit process is still in the center of attention in Europe, although volatility took a nosedive on the old continent as well, and it’s unlikely that the Christmas period will be much different, given the predictable drop in volumes and trading activity. The date of the next election in the financially and politically troubled Italy has been set to March 4th next year, and the early date caused some turmoil in the countries assets, which dragged the Euro Stoxx 50 lower today, together with the DAX and the other major indices.

Cryptocurrencies

As the total market cap of the crypto-market crossed the incredible $500 billion mark, Ripple, NEO, and Ethereum made headlines with lofty gains in the face of the severely overbought readings elsewhere in the segment. While XRP and NEO are still not overbought from an investment perspective, Ethereum reached our final target for its break-out and triggered a long-term sell signal.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The previously surging IOTA continued its correction, Litecoin consolidated in a relatively narrow range, while Dash, ETC, and Monero scored marginal new highs before turning lower together with BTC. The most valuable coin that has lost some of its momentum “mojo” in recent days fell back below last week’s highs, and that could mark a failed break-out and a start of the deeper correction that seems more and more likely.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
11:30 UK Average Earnings 2.5% 2.5% 2.3%
11:30 UK Claimant Count Change 5,900 3,300 6,500
11:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.2% 4.35
15:30 US Core CPI 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -5.1 mill -3.6 mill -5.6 mill
21:00 US Fed Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5% 1.25%
21:00 US FOMC Statement

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