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Crypto Update: Ethereum Classic on Track for a Bullish Reversal

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Ethereum Classic (ETC/USD) is among the many altcoins that suffered a massive beating this year. While the pair managed to go as high as $47.296 on January 14, 2018, it has been on a downward spiral ever since. On August 14, it registered a low of $10.10 and at that price point, Ethereum Classic has shed close to 80% of its value from this year’s high.

Just as gloom and doom articles started to circulate on the internet, Ethereum Classic came back from the dead. The market is still weak but it is gaining strength. In this article, we reveal three reasons why we believe ETC is on track for a bullish reversal.

Successful Backtest of a Breakout

Many investors believed that Ethereum Classic was headed into even deeper bear territory. It breached support of $12.00 on August 13 and generated another lower low. After all, lower highs and lower lows are the hallmarks of a downtrend. ETC seems consistent in following the textbook definition of a downtrend.

With these developments, it’s difficult to imagine that Ethereum Classic has already broken out of a reversal pattern. However, it did break out of the large falling wedge on the daily and weekly charts. What we’re seeing right now is the backtesting of the breakout.

Daily chart of ETC/USD

In technical analysis, a resistance becomes a support level once breached. The chart above shows the clear breach of the resistance, hence the breakout. Even with the breakout, Ethereum Classic still dropped. This may seem counterintuitive that’s why many are still saying that the market is bearish.

However, the chart clearly depicts that ETC bounced from the support. It is respecting the new support, which means the breakout is still valid. The backtesting was a resounding success.  

Ethereum Classic Indicators Look Strong

We’re bullish on Ethereum Classic because technical indicators are glowing. Ignore the price drop and you’ll see that the market is gaining strength.

A quick look at the weekly chart reveals that bulls are returning in massive numbers. The extreme volume surge over the last two weeks tells us that bulls are buying the market. The last time ETC printed the same volume level was back in February 2018. However, this is the first time the market is printing such heavy volume for two consecutive weeks.

Weekly chart of ETC/USD

On top of that, a long bullish divergence can be spotted on the daily MACD. Also, ETC has bounced from historic daily Stochastic support of 7.00. These indicators tell us that bulls are wrestling the momentum away from bears.

Daily chart of ETC/USD with indicators

Projected Move

ETC/USD may be looking bullish, but that doesn’t mean that the market will skyrocket anytime soon. On the contrary, it would be better for the long-term health of the market for the price to consolidate between $12 – $20 before making a major move up. If a massive rally occurs that works, too. Whatever happens, we believe that the future looks rosy for ETC.

ETC/USD may have bottomed out

The main reason for the optimism is because the market just bounced from its historic support. This tells us that a bottom may be in place and it’s highly likely that ETC will not go anywhere but up.

Bottom Line

ETC may look extremely bearish but a closer look tells us the exact opposite. The successful backtest of the breakout and the flashing of bullish signals from multiple technical indicators tell us that Ethereum Classic is on track for a bullish reversal.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.8 stars on average, based on 311 rated postsKiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 5+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. msalekar

    August 20, 2018 at 8:22 pm

    Thank you for the great analysis.
    Don’t you think, irrespective of the technical indicators, the recent spike in ETC/USD volume and price was in anticipation of Coinbase listing ?
    Thank you again Kiril

    • Kiril Nikolaev

      August 20, 2018 at 8:40 pm

      Yep, that’s very likely. Though that’s a fundamental factor. This analysis is purely technical. When the two align that’s typically a good sign.

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Altcoins

Tron Price Analysis: TRX/USD Must Break and Close Above $0.03000 or be Punished

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  • Tron price is seen trading in the green late on Tuesday, with gains of 2.5% at the time of writing.
  • TRX/USD is still shaping up a potential head and shoulders pattern structure.

The Tron price in the latter part of trading on Tuesday was seen holding gains of 2.5%. The bulls manage to see TRX/USD rising for a second consecutive session. Sellers however are not making things easy, as they continue to cap upside potential.

Daily Chart View

TRX/USD daily chart.

Looking via the daily chart view, a chunky area of supply can be observed running from the $0.02600-$0.02900 price region. This has plagued the bulls since August 2018, as they continue to be dealt a blow by the bears on each occasion. As a freak incident, TRX/USD did manage to force an aggressive spike above this area; however, it was not sustained and failed to close above. Key daily support should be noted at the running ascending trend line. This has been active since 21st December 2018.

Head and Shoulders Still in Play

It is worth considering that a head and shoulders pattern structure can be eyed. Both the left shoulder and head have been constructed. Eyes are currently on the right shoulder, which is still very much in play. The neckline should be noted around $0.023000, and a breach below here could open another fresh wave of hard selling pressure. Support to the downside of this level is not seen until the $0.0175000-$0.016000 range.

60-minute Chart View

TRX/USD 60-minute chart.

In terms of the 60-minute chart, the slowdown in upside momentum can clearly be witnessed. The recent hourly candlesticks demonstrating a loss of power from the bulls most recent run. In terms of this price cooling, it could simple be profit-taking after the decent surge to the north of late. Given the current price cooling, downside hourly support should be noted at; $0.025200 and then $0.023500. These both being ahead of the long running daily ascending trend line.

Upside Target Areas

Should the bulls maintain the current upside momentum, the hopes for the above-mentioned supply zone will be high. A daily breakout and closure above this area really could be the key to greater sustained buying pressure. The market has already witnessed how powerful the TRX/USD bull runs can be once started. As a point of reference, during the most recent rally from mid-December 2018 to the 10th January, the price gained over 180%. This was the biggest string of gains in a trend higher since April 2018, where TRX/USD rose around 240%.

The big level to watch is $0.030000, where the sellers are presently camped. This area being conquered will likely pave the way for a fast move, back towards the $0.040000 territory. The price has not been up at these heights since August 2018, a period when the market had re-entered a strong trend south, dropping a big 50% from the start to mid-August.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 112 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

Lisk (LSK) Pushing for Momentum as Marketing Chief Responds to Over-Hyped Claims

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Lisk (LSK) trailed on the edges of Tuesday’s altcoin surge which saw more than a dozen alts increase by between 7% and 40% in value.

One day previously, the project’s head of marketing, Thomas Schouten, took to Reddit to respond to the recent assessment by William Mougayar that Lisk was among multiple blockchain projects which he regarded as ‘over-marketed’.

Mougayar is a venture investor and advisor, and author of The Business Blockchain, which boasts a foreword by Vitalik Buterin. Shouten’s regard for Mougayar’s opinion was such that he felt compelled to respond to the criticism.

Is Lisk Over-Marketed?

As you can see from Mougayar’s graphic, Lisk joins the likes of EOS, Tron and XRP (here referred to as Ripple) in the over-marketed category. Mougayar stated:

“I’ve classified some projects in 3 buckets: Right, Under & Over Marketed. It is based on their own or community-driven activity. I understand some will push back, but this is how I view the market today.”

The tweet followed the author’s post from the previous day titled ‘Marketing Strategies and Practices for Blockchain Projects and Startups’. The post makes a nifty read for those interested in the marketing side of blockchain; why more money doesn’t always breed more success (he’s looking at you, EOS); and the difference between branding and visual identity.

“Over-marketed means the claims are ahead of delivery or being hyped. Under-marketed means the potential of the product is not well messaged into the market.”

Many of the tweet’s 130 comments came from disgruntled coin holders intent on defending their respective projects – in response to which Mougayar added:

“…the classification has nothing to do with the products/services of these companies… I didn’t include all blockchain projects, but selected ones that I was familiar with and that were significant enough to use as a representative sample.”

Lisk Head of Marketing Responds

The response by Lisk’s Thomas Schouten was less hostile than you might expect. He conceded that Lisk had indeed been over-marketed to an extent:

“William’s definition of over-marketed is “claims are ahead of delivery or being hyped”. To a certain degree, I agree with his judgement… I feel that too often our team has predicted progress that could not be delivered in the end. We have learned from this the hard way.”

However, Schouten also pointed out that many of the so-called ‘right-marketed’ projects happened to be exchanges, while most ‘over-marketed’ projects happened to be platforms.

“Coincidence? No. To me, comparing an exchange (for-profit) with a working product and profitable business model, to open-source blockchain platforms in development (non-profit) is comparing apples with pears.”

Lisk Price

While LSK did record 3.3% gains against the dollar, and over 4.4% against BTC on Tuesday, momentum was hard to come by. LSK/BTC on Binance moved from $0.0003368 up to $0.0003518, while the dollar valuation rose from $1.19 to $1.23.

The daily trade volume of $3.6 million was a $400,000 increase from the previous day – not insignificant, but nowhere near the trade influx seen by some of the day’s major movers.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 125 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Analysis

3 Things You Need to Know About the Market Today

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1, Pound Resumes Rally on Strong Employment Report

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Great British Pound reacted well to the likely delay of the Brexit process in recent weeks, and today the currency defied the risk-off shift and rallied back towards the 1.30 level against the USD. The better than expected British Employment Report, which showed the strongest wage growth in a decade, outpacing inflation despite the long-term weakness of the Pound.

While the currency gained ground, British equities followed the global trends and finished lower, threatening with a resumption of the broader declining trend. All eyes are still on the Brexit saga, but should the extended deadline scenario prevail, the short-term bullish trend could continue in the pair, even as traders should keep the considerable event risk in mind when trading the Pound-related pairs.

2, Oil and Stocks Slide as Risk Assets Suffer amid Renewed Trade Worries

Johnson & Johnson, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the losses in risk assets have been limited yesterday, due, in part at least, to the US bank holiday, today, we saw heavy selling across the board. Oil ran into a wall near the resistance zone that we pointed out yesterday, and the crucial commodity fell back to a $52 per barrel handle with regards to the WTI contract.

Stocks got hit hard on reports that this week’s round of meetings between the senior US and Chinese officials has been canceled, with the issues of Intellectual Property and deeper Chinese economic reforms being behind the setback. We argued several times that these ‘soft’, hard to control issues are unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, even in the case of a formal agreement, so while we expect wild swings on trade-related headlines, the structural, credit-related issues will drive Chinese assets.

3, Johnson & Johnson Misses on Guidance Despite Earnings Beat

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The pressure on stocks intensified following Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) earnings report, with the 2019 guidance disappointing investors. While the previous quarter was a positive surprise from the healthcare giant, as far as the bottom line is concerned, the outlook for the consumer segment cast a shadow on the broader market even as the company’s core Pharmaceutical business continues to shine.

Shares of the company are down by around 2%, and after the closing bell, IBM’s (IBM) report will be in focus, as the struggling tech giant will also report earnings. IBM has seen its share price cut in half as its growth stalled in recent years, and even a small positive surprise could propel the stock higher following the market-wide decline of the recent months, but it’s unlikely that the broader downtrend will be broken anytime soon.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 445 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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