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Crypto Regulation: A Tectonic Shift Is Occurring

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What caused the crypto crash that began last December?  There are some observers silly enough to believe it was all the fault of the CBOE by starting the first Bitcoin futures contracts.  Others believe it was just the bursting of a bubble that was long overdue.

Most likely, the ban on crypto exchanges by the Chinese government and the fear of a total ban on ownership played a very big role in starting the selling wave.  That wave has continued practically to this day. But there is evidence that things are changing.

Since the moves by China, virtually every publication worth its weight in Satoshi has been fueling fears of suffocating governmental regulation.  We’re taking nothing away from these folks because regulation is a big factor for investors.

Barron’s: Regulate Out of Existence

After reading last weeks edition of Barron’s I concluded we have reached the worst in the mania over regulation.  Three of the world’s most “respected” economists, according to Barron’s, Joseph Stiglitz, Nouriel Roubini and Kenneth Rogoff, put the kibosh on crypto on the sole basis that it will be “regulated into oblivion”.  This is just the sort of editorial approach that Barron’s has long been known for.

Of course, there was the volatility versus storehouse of value argument and the declaration that nobody uses Bitcoin as a medium of exchange so it can never be worth anything. The shortcoming of so many economists is their insistence on being chained to history.  

It Is All About Money

After a period of largely negative regulatory developments during the past seven months, signs are emerging that things are changing as governments get more familiar with the benefits of nurturing blockchain technology and crypto. In the end, it is all about governments finally figuring ways to make money from crypto. Once that occurs, they realize, we are all in the same boat.

The Regulatory Paradox

This brings things to what some observers refer to the government regulation paradox. In other words, investors need government to deter price manipulation and other scams. But the unregulated autonomous nature is a big reason that investors bought into crypto in the first place.  So far the trick has been to find a middle ground.

If you take a long look at the issue there is a new trend emerging.  One by one governments are beginning to appreciate the importance of blockchain technology and the role of cryptocurrencies.  The initial adversarial role is being replaced with a more cooperative attitude. Crypto values aren’t going to increase exponentially overnight as a result. Nevertheless, having cooperative regulators is critical to mass acceptance.  Here are a few encouraging signs.

SEC declares Bitcoin and Ether Non Securities

It has been some time now that the US Securities and Exchange Commission ruled that neither Bitcoin or Ether were securities.  The idea is that, so long as there is no conveyance of ownership, everybody is safe. This includes most ICOs as well even though a formal ruling has yet to be given.  This clears up a giant cloud that investors have pretty much ignored.

Changing Government Attitudes in Switzerland

As the U.S. and other countries attempt to exert greater AML and KYC rules, projects are leaving in favor of places like Singapore, Malta and Gibraltar where a connection to the international banking system is available. Information coming from Switzerland predicts that by year end, Swiss banks will be open to dealing with crypto.  As the traditional home of banking secrecy, Switzerland is the ideal place for crypto to make inroads. For the Swiss economy, it is all about finance. Last year, ICO projects brought in almost $1.5 billion that Swiss bankers were losing out on. This could prove to be a landmark decision.

Upstaging China

On any given day, Asia can account for a big share of global crypto trading.  Seven months ago the Chinese government actions threatened the health of the market.  This is understandingly leading governments elsewhere to open their doors.

Improving Asian Trading

Asian regulators are standing by to take advantage of any serious restrictions in China. In Thailand, the securities industry association is working with regulators to establish a joint cryptocurrency exchange and is working with the Thai SEC to get an operating license.  And this month the SEC approved a new two-tier vetting procedure to create accredited ICOs.

All this was made possible because the Thai government wasted no time in declaring crypto as digital assets and skipped the endless debate.  Sometimes a government dictatorship has its advantages.

And finally, signs of improvement in Japanese regulations are being reported that could lead to creating a market for crypto ETFs.

Wrapping Up

It is entirely possible that government regulation could be one of the most boring topics in the history of mankind. But we can all agree that it has hurt every long term crypto investor. We can also agree that there has been a lot of “piling on” by the media this entire year. So I decided to take on a thankless task in the interest of providing some balance to opinions of professors Stiglitz, Roubini and Rogoff. Thanks for keeping me company.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 115 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Retreat After Rally Attempt

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While yesterday the major cryptocurrencies recovered their weekend losses and bounced back above their prior lows, the bounce got halted before changing the short-term technical setup. As the world is focused on today’s key Brexit vote, trading volumes are once again very low, but the lack of bullish follow-through is a warning sign for traders here even considering the low level of trading activity.

We haven’t seen signs of a developing leadership in recent days, with correlations remaining high and with the top coins failing at the first major levels of resistance for now. That said, should the coins hold above yesterday’s lows and push above consolidation range, the formation of a bear-trap pattern is still possible even as odds still favor the continuation of the bear market.

In light of the short- and long-term setups, traders and investors should still stay away from entering new positions, with our trend model still being on sell signals on both time frames for the majority of the top coins.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the breakdown in Bitcoin got bought yesterday, the bounce failed to reach the $3850 level and the most valuable coin is still hovering near the $3600 level, leaving both the neutral short-term, and of course, the long-term sell signal intact in our trend model.

A move above $3850 would be a positive sign for bulls, but odds still favor a negative outcome and a likely test of the $3000 level in the coming weeks, so even short-term traders should still away from entering new positions here. Further, weaker support is found near $3250, with resistance ahead between $4000 and $4050, and near $4450.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although Ethereum briefly topped the $130 level after plunging below the $120 support, a failed breakdown pattern hasn’t been confirmed in the previously leading coin, and the short-term sell signal remains in place in our trend model.

With the bearish long-term picture in mind, and with the oversold short-term momentum readings now cleared, the outlook for the coin remains negative, even as the resumption the counter-trend rally is still a possibility here. Further support below $120 is found between $95 and $100, while resistance is ahead at $160 and near $180.

Altcoins Still Stuck in Downtrends Across the Board

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin’s rally stooped near the upper boundary of last week’s consolidation range, and although the coin is safely above the key $30-$30.50 support zone, the momentum of the bounce is waning. The bearish long-term forces still seem to be dominant, and the coin is well below the primary resistance level near $34.50, so our trend model remains on sell signals on both time-frames. Further strong resistance ahead near $38 and $44 and with support is found near $26 and $23.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple experienced a brief period of relative stability after the weekend sell-off, but that didn’t change the bearish overall picture for the coin, and technicals are still hostile for bulls here. The coin continues to hover around the $0.32 price level, but we still expect a move below $0.30 in the coming weeks with a test of the bear market lows being the most likely scenario.

Another strong support level is found near the $0.26 level, with resistance ahead near $0.3550, $0.3750, and in the key long-term zone between $0.42 and $0.46.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is also among the weaker majors and although it bounced back together with the broader market, it failed to sustainably recapture the $45 level, and it remains in clear short- and long-term downtrend. Our trend model is o sell signals on both time-frames as well, and the re-test of the bear market low just below $38 seems very likely in the coming weeks.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 441 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Bitcoin

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum: The pump doesn’t get any quality jump

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  • Sterile climbs yesterday that didn’t manage to change the scenario in the short term.
  • The ETH/BTC retrieves the bullish scenario but lacks the strength to develop it.
  • It is a bipolar market that can change the mood at any time and any direction.

The crypto market experienced a generalized rise led by the Ethereum yesterday at the end of the European session. The ETH/BTC chart followed the expected roadmap, and after touching the extension of the bullish trend, it rose sharply to get back above the main trend line. It also reached the resistance level at 0.0350 BTC per ETH.

This upside movement is positive news for the market since the leadership of the Ethereum is necessary for the market to continue moving away from the lows.

The market continues to be in a delicate situation since the main Crypto actors do not manage to get far enough away from the relative minimum prices, so that security, which is the basis of optimism, floods the minds of traders.

BTC/USD 240 Minute Chart

The BTC/USD is currently trading at the $3.645 price level. Yesterday it left a high of $3.708, stopping at short-term moving averages and resistance to price congestion.

Today, the BTC/USD is moving slightly lower, and it is very likely that at some point during the day the price will drop to the $3,600 support (price congestion support). The second support level is at $3,470(price congestion support). Should the BTC/USD lose this support level, it would re-enter the relative lows zone with the third support level target at $3,300 (price congestion support).

If bulls reappear, the first resistance level at $3,700 (price congestion resistance, EMA50, and SMA200) is the most important in the short term and exceeding it would greatly facilitate bullish continuity. The second resistance level for the BTC/USD is at $3,787 (SMA100), an intermediate level on the way to the third resistance level at $3,900(congestion resistance). If the BTC/USD can overcome this third resistance level, it would be free of moving averages, which would also become support and support price rises.

The MACD at 240 Minutes shows a bullish profile after yesterday’s gain but continues on the negative side of the indicator. It is necessary that the lines go into the positive zone to be able to see continued rises.

The DMI at 240 Minutes shows how after yesterday’s rise, the bears and bulls were at similar levels of activity, a tie that today seems to opt for the bears but without getting an advantage over the bulls that poses a bearish development.

ETH/USD 240 Minute Chart

The ETH/USD pair is currently trading at the $128.90 price level. After yesterday’s rally, it failed to break above the $130 price congestion resistance level, but it did break above the SMA100. Much better than Bitcoin.

The look at this time in the morning in Europe also seems to support a day of falls, although in this case, they could be minimal thanks to the support you can find in the simple average (SMA100) at $126.79.

In case the ETH/USD pair loses the first support level, the second support at $115 (price congestion support) is the next price target. A fall of this magnitude would be technically devastating and would complicate any bullish development in the medium term because it would drag down the exponential and simple averages and move down the resistance level. The third support at $110 (price congestion support), would see the beginning of a new bearish stretch and could be seen new relative lows.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $130 (price congestion resistance), followed a little higher by the EMA50 at $132.80. The third resistance level at $142 (price congestion resistance and SMA200) is the most important, as Ethereum would be free of resistance by moving averages that would become support and facilitate the rises.

The MACD in 240 minutes shows a bullish profile but still moving in the bearish zone of the indicator. The inclination and opening between lines support possible increases, but the crossing of the zero levels of the indicator will make sales appear.

The 240-minute DMI shows the bears taking some advantage over the bulls early in the session after pairing yesterday. Both sides of the market show a significant level of trend strength, which can lead to increased volatility.

XRP/USD 240 Minute Chart

The XRP/USD pair is currently trading at the $0.33 price level after leaving yesterday’s high of $0.343 at the 50-period exponential moving average. It then dropped and held above the $0.335 support level (price congestion support).

The XRP/USD is currently losing that level, which now becomes resistance and is heading towards the second support level at $0.32(price congestion support). The XRP should not miss this second level of support, because it would lose all bullish potential and enter a strongly bearish environment that would target to the third level of support at $0.308 (price congestion support).

Above the current price, the first resistance is at $0.335 (price congestion resistance). The second resistance level is at $0.345(EMA50 and price congestion resistance). The third resistance level is at $0.36 (price congestion resistance), but targeting order to reach it, XRP/USD should first exceed the SMA100 and the SMA200. The maximum difficulty level that if overcome would open a perfect scenario to see consistent rises in the medium term.

The MACD in 240 Minutes shows an upward cross profile although with less upward inclination than Bitcoin or Ethereum. It also moves on the bearish side of the indicator, so the upside potential is limited.

The 240 Minute DMI shows a tie between bears and bulls. Yesterday’s rise put the bulls ahead, but morning falls have made them lose strength, and now it is the bears who are trying to take control of the situation.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Bitcoin’s Price Recovery Stalls as BitMEX Shuts Down U.S. Accounts

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Bitcoin’s rally stalled on Tuesday after Hong Kong futures exchange BitMEX announced it was closing U.S. accounts amid growing regulatory scrutiny. As Hacked reported since November, BitMEX has emerged as the biggest virtual market for BTC trades based on percentage of daily trade volumes.

BTC/USD Update

The bitcoin price notched a session high of $3,572.87 on Tuesday, according to CCN’s data feed. It was last seen hovering just below $3,700, having gained 2.8% over the past 24 hours. However, it should be noted that bitcoin rose sharply in the late morning of Monday’s session, so the 24-hour price tracker is a bit skewed.

Bitcoin’s sudden rally on Monday was significant for technical traders eyeing the $3,550-$3,500 support level. A breach below this level would have devastating consequences and likely lead to a re-test of the December low near $3,100.

Bitcoin’s short-term momentum indicators have improved since Monday’s rally attempt. The following chart, which is based on Bitstamp price data, highlight the momentum shift based on the RSI and MACD.

Trading in BTC reached $5.7 billion on virtual exchanges, according to CoinMarketCap. Volumes have increased sharply this year as long-dormant bitcoin accounts become active again. Dormant accounts began moving their coins in October, leading to a sharp rise in bitcoin’s circulating supply. More on this story: Bitcoin Likely Headed Lower as Whales Activate Long-Dormant Accounts.

BitMEX Closes U.S. Accounts

One of the world’s fastest growing cryptocurrency exchanges has pulled the plug on its North American market, citing increased regulatory scrutiny in the United States and the Canadian province of Quebec.

The decision, which was reported by CCN and the South China Morning Post, came in direct response to regulatory crackdowns targeting unlicensed cryptocurrency exchanges. In addition to ceasing operations in the U.S. and Quebec, BitMEX has advised clients in North Korea, Iran, Syria, Cuba, Sudan and Sevastopol (Crimea) against holding positions or trading on the platform.

BitMEX rose to prominence in the latter half of 2018 as traders began shorting bitcoin in record amounts. During the depths of the bear market in November and December, as much as one-third of bitcoin’s virtual exchange volume was processed on BitMEX. Spot markets accounted for the rest.

Last month, BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes told the Unchained podcast that 24/7 markets represent the wave of the future and that other financial instruments will soon follow cryptocurrencies in around-the-clock trading. His firm processed nearly $1 trillion in trading volume over the past year.

More: Cryptocurrencies Still Recovering Strong After Monday Rally; BitMEX Sees 24/7 Trading as the Future

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 736 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

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