Crypto Exchanges: Looking For Guaranteed Results

The word guaranteed is never to be used anywhere investment advice is offered.  So please think of my use of the term as just one person’s opinion. But after doing some weekend reading, I think there should be a way to achieve extraordinary gains that are virtually assured for a very long time.

Back in the glory days of the dotcom period the wisdom of the time was simply stated: invest in the plumbing. That included names like Cisco and Intel.  These were the folks that facilitated high speed traffic on the Internet. Even after the dotcom bubble burst, the plumbers continued to rake in the dough.

Fast forward to 2018, why should we not follow the same logic? Please don’t ask why I didn’t ask this question long ago. Here is what caught my attention.

There is a new study out prepared by The Status Group that makes some incredible projections for the immediate future.  Here are their headline making forecasts.

  • We expect crypto trading volume growth of +50% through 2019, and a 9% CAGR through 2028
  • Crypto trading volume is set to overtake U.S. Corporate Debt trading volume this year, and is on track to be ~10% of U.S. Equity trading volume
  • We estimate exchange trading fee growth of 50%+ this year, from $2.1B last year to well over $3B in 2018
  • The top 20 exchanges account for over 75% of total crypto market trading volume
  • BTC is the base pair for ~1/3 of global crypto volume, USDT 22%, ETH 12%

Always Be Cautious of Forecasts

With no disrespect meant, are the forecasters at The Status Group really serious?  Well, 2019 isn’t that far off so we will know soon enough. But the point is, how do we get involved in the growth of trading rather than pure speculation on crypto prices?

Take the case of the two largest players: Bitmex and Binance.  Over the past 30 days, the two exchanges have traded over $125 billion in value.  That is just in the last month or $1.5 trillion annually. This is only the top two.  If the five largest were included, the monthly total rapidly approaches $200 billion.

Bitmex stands out from a recent article titled: Bitmex Co-Founder is the Youngest British Self-Made Billionaire. Brilliant ideas and hard work deserve and that is why Ben Delo, Samuel Reed and Arthur Hayes are billionaires. But try to buy into Bitmex, good luck.

But there is #2 Binance (BNB) whose token can be traded on the Binance exchange. According to ICOMarks, the market cap of BNB is just a little over $1.1 billion. Back in January, BNB reached $22 but has since tumbled to just $10 -marking a drop of roughly 60%.

Putting that into perspective, that is just a bit less than the average crypto has done this year. But before you doze off, consider this. Changpeng Zhao, BNB founder, just reported second quarter profits of $200 million.  That amounts to 2,757% over the $7.5 million earned in the first quarter.

In other words, BNB’s market cap is equal to just five times the profits in the first six months. If BNB were listed on the New York Stock Exchange and received an average valuation, it would sell for about 23 times earnings.  There may be many reasons why the value of BNB is so low but if it continues to generate such sizable profits, somebody is going to take notice.

As we noted, there are probably lots of reasons why the asset value has fallen nearly as much as the average crypto this year.  This is where I would love to hear from you. Just like back in the post dotcom days, the plumbing companies made the most money.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

James Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.