Connect with us

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Transaction Volume is Down – Should You Be Worried?

Published

on

Decline

Needless to say by now, the price of bitcoin has been struggling this year. Since the record highs from December last year, prices are now down by more than 60%. Meanwhile, the number of transactions per day on the bitcoin network has also shown lacking momentum, causing FUD among investors.

Looking at the number of daily bitcoin transactions reveals that the number hasn’t been this low since February 25 when it slipped to 144,000 transactions per day. With some investors now questioning the future of bitcoin, many are looking to the transaction volume for clues on where the price might be heading next.

Following the low on February 25, the number of transactions briefly shot up again before it fell back down. At the time of writing, the daily number of transactions is again close to the low from February, with 164,400 confirmed daily transactions.

Relationship between value and transactions

I recently came across an article on Forbes that outlined a model developed by a group at Trefis.com for estimating the price of bitcoin with an amazing accuracy of 96% on historical data. Specifically, the they looked at the number of active bitcoin users and the daily transaction volume in USD terms, using a model based on Metcalf’s Law, which is something we have previously covered here on Hacked.com.

Judging from the group’s findings, it appears very likely that the number of bitcoin users, transaction volume, and price are all directly linked. It clearly shows that there is a direct relationship between bitcoin adoption and price.

Number of transactions is not the whole story

Still, not everyone agrees that the lower number of bitcoin transactions is necessarily a bad thing. It can be argued that the lower number of bitcoin transactions per day is in fact a consequence of new solutions such as SegWit and batching of transactions being implemented by exchanges. These are all solutions that are implemented to improve the usability of bitcoin by lowering transaction fees and network congestion.

Some are also questioning whether the price of bitcoin is a function of transaction volume, or if it is the other way around. One can argue that in bull markets, more and more people are jumping on the bandwagon, generating lots of transactions between exchanges. Rising transaction volume would in that case come as a consequence of the rise in price.

Regardless of whether the chicken or the egg came first, one important thing to note here is the difference between the confirmed transactions per day and estimated transaction value. So whereas batching of transactions definitely lowers the number of confirmed transactions, it should in theory not affect the total value of transactions.

As we can see from the graph below, the drop in the number of confirmed transactions per day has been rather sharp since it reached an all-time high back in mid-December last year.

transactions per day

When we look at the estimated transaction value, however, we can see that the drop has not been quite as dramatic.

estimated transaction volume

Bitcoin price action aside, the above graphs confirms that looking at the number of daily transactions alone does not give the full picture of the extent to which bitcoin is being used.

So whether price is a function of transactions or not, it leads us to the conclusion that transaction batching and otherwise better management of transactions is having an impact on the transaction count. The sharp drop we have seen here recently therefore should not be a major cause of concern for bitcoin investors going forward. Instead, it indicates that transaction batching has been a success, improving scalability with lower fees and faster transaction times for everyone.

Featured image from Pixabay.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term trading.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
7 votes, average: 4.57 out of 57 votes, average: 4.57 out of 57 votes, average: 4.57 out of 57 votes, average: 4.57 out of 57 votes, average: 4.57 out of 5 (7 votes, average: 4.57 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.3 stars on average, based on 37 rated postsFredrik Vold is an entrepreneur, financial writer, and technical analysis enthusiast. He has been working and traveling in Asia for several years, and is currently based out of Beijing, China. He closely follows stocks, forex and cryptocurrencies, and is always looking for the next great alternative investment opportunity.




Feedback or Requests?

Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Settle Down After Weekend Pump & Dump

Published

on

While crypto bulls had something to cheer about early on during the weekend following a rally attempt in the majors, the move once again failed to improve the technical setup in the segment, and the top coins quickly gave back their gains. Now, most of the coins are trading near the bottom of their short-term ranges and technicals continue to point to the continuation of the bear market.

Correlations are still very high, there is no sign of a developing bullish leadership, and with none of the key coins showing bullish momentum, bulls are facing strong headwinds. While trading volumes and volatility remain relatively low thanks to the range-trading environment a move below primary support could trigger larger moves in the majors soon.

The negative long-term trends are still in no danger, and although there is still a slight chance of a failed break-down pattern to develop in the market, odds favor a bearish short-term outcome as well. With that in mind, traders and investors still shouldn’t enter positions here, with our trend model being on sell signals on both time-frames in the case of the majority of the coins.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although Bitcoin is still relatively stable compared to its most important peers, it gave back all of its weekend gains and fell back below the key $3600 support/resistance level yesterday. Now, BTC is threatening with a break-down below the prior sing low, and given the recent weakness, our trned model is now on a short-term sell signal.

While bulls could still be saved by a move above $3850, the failed rally attempts warn of selling pressure, and a bearish continuation is more likely here. Further strong resistance is ahead between $4000 and $4050, with support zones still found near $3250 and $3000, and traders should still not enter positions.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum shoed relative weakness during the rally attempt this weekend, and it is now very close to a break below the key swing low, which would likely lead to a move towards the key support zone between $95 and $100. The coin remains on sell single son both time-frames, and with a test of the bear market low near the $80 price level seems likely in the coming weeks.

Strong resistance is ahead just above the current price level and near $130, with further zones at $145, $160, and near $180 while a weak short-term support is found near $112, and the coin’s weakness is a negative sign for the whole segment.

Altcoins Still Weak Despite Rally Attempt

STR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While none of the major altcoins broke the key short-term support levels, the overall picture remains bearish and we haven’t seen signs of resilience that would indicate a short-term bottom and the resumption of the counter-trend move.

Stellar, which has been among the bearish leaders towards the end of 2018, is once again showing relative weakness while following the trends in the broader market, should the coin violate the $0.10 level, a quick to new bear market lows would be likely, with the $0.09 level being the only lone of defense for bulls.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple still seems very fragile from a technical standpoint, and a move below $0.30 looks inevitable in the coming weeks, with a likely test of the bear market low near $0.28. The $32 support/resistance level remains in focus, but given the weak rally attempts and the bearish long-term setup, we don’t expect the coin to get back to the $0.3550 level in the coming period.

Our trend model is still on sell signals on both time-frames, with further strong support found near the $0.26 level, with resistance ahead near $0.3750, and in the key long-term zone between $0.42 and $0.46.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is back near the key $30-$30.50 support zone after the volatile weekend, and it also looks ready to dip below that zone, even as the short-term trading range is still intact. The steep long-term downtrend is intact despite the recent counter-trend move, and traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions here, with the short-term setup also being bearish. Strong resistance is ahead near $34.50, $38, and $44 with further support found near $26 and $23.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
1 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 5 (1 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.7 stars on average, based on 445 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Turns Defensive Following Sunday Slide; Binance Euro Platform Sees “Huge” Demand Amid Brexit

Published

on

Bitcoin traded within a narrow range on Monday, after a sharp and sudden reversal during the previous session dragged prices back toward $3,500. The largest digital currency by market capitalization faces renewed headwinds in the wake of yet another failed attempt to break through the $3,700-$3,800 range.

BTC/USD Update

The bitcoin price slipped 0.4% on Monday to $3,581.16, according to aggregate data provided by CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin fell 4% on Sunday in the span of an hour, where it briefly pierced below $3,550. During the previous session, BTC had gained 2.5% as part of a broad market rally that included altcoins and tokens.

The following chart highlights bitcoin’s present value via Bitstamp. Weak momentum via the MACD can be clearly observed.

A sustained drop below $3,550 would spell trouble for bitcoin, as it would mean the loss of a long-term vital support. This would likely lead to an imminent drop to the $3,400 region and, possibly, a re-test of the December low near $3,100. Another possible scenario is a bounce off $3,400, which would keep prices very much rangebound.

Trading in BTC has picked up sharply since the beginning of the year, with daily volumes climbing above $5 billion. Over the last 24 hours, more than $5 billion worth of BTC traded hands on virtual currency exchanges. BitMEX continues to be the largest by overall volume, though its share has declined after it announced the closure of U.S.-based accounts.

Bitcoin’s Price Recovery Stalls as BitMEX Shuts Down U.S. Accounts.

Bitcoin’s market cap is currently valued at $62.6 billion, which represents 52.4% of the overall crypto universe. Its share has steadily increased during the bear market as interest in altcoins and tokens continued to diminish.

Europe and the Future of Crypto

Cryptocurrency exchange Binance has shined the spotlight on the European region after the company announced it would expand its fiat-to-crypto offerings to the region. The leading exchange will service the region through the Island of Jersey, a self-governing entity of the United Kingdom. The Binance Jersey platform will allow traders to buy bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies through traditional fiat channels like the euro and British pound.

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, also known as CZ, said the new exchange is “overwhelmed with registrations.” As Forbes recently noted, the strong demand for crypto trading comes at a time of heightened uncertainty regarding Brexit. That uncertainty has not only roiled traditional financial markets, it has cast a dark shadow over London’s role as a traditional banking hub.

Although bitcoin and Brexit aren’t directly linked, cryptocurrency regulation in Europe is likely to crystalize this year. It remains to be seen whether this will serve as an added draw for investors to diversify into digital assets as a store of value should Brexit implode.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.7 stars on average, based on 743 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Reverses Gains as Bears Eye Breakdown of Major Support Level

Published

on

Bitcoin swung lower on Sunday, giving back all of Saturday’s gain and setting the stage for a possible re-test of a long-term support level.

BTC/USD Update

Bitcoin’s price fell 4% to $3,596.96, where it was approaching an important long-term support. That level is located at $3,550. A successful penetration south by the bears could set the stage for a bigger drop toward new yearly lows. As a refresher, bitcoin bottomed near $3,100 last month before rebounding more than 30%.

Read: Bitcoin Approaches “GTFO” Level.

The bulk of the selloff on Sunday occurred over the span of one hour beginning around 06:30 UTC. Trading volumes have remained elevated throughout the session, with roughly $5.4 billion worth of BTC trading hands on virtual currency exchanges.

More on this story: Return to $100 Billion Awaits as Crypto Market Loses $5B in One Hour.

The leading digital currency received a boost heading into the weekend, as buyers re-emerged following a period of hesitation. Bitcoin climbed back above $3,700 on Saturday before the latest reversal took root.

Broad Market Reversal

Even with the recent decline, bitcoin’s share of the overall cryptocurrency market was little changed at 52.5%. That’s because altcoins and tokens registered bigger percentage losses, with Ethereum, bitcoin cash and EOS each falling 4.5% or more.

Alternative cryptocurrencies tend to gravitate around bitcoin, especially during bearish trends. Justified or not, bitcoin continues to be a major influence on how other assets perform. At the time of writing, the total cryptocurrency market cap was worth $119.8 billion.

Trading across all virtual assets has remained elevated over the last 24 hours, with total volumes exceeding $16.7 billion. Cryptocurrencies have seen a substantial rise in circulation over the past three months as long-dormant accounts became active once again.

In less than one month, cryptoassets will enter its longest bear market in history, according to CNBC’s Ran NeuNer. As of Sunday, the bear market has stretched on for 394 days. The longest on record was seen back in 2014-15 when the bear trend lasted for 420 days.

2019 could be a year of accumulation for bitcoin, as long-term holders and institutional investors look to capitalize on low prices. As we recently speculated, bitcoin will likely prove to be an attractive investment in the $2,000-$4,000 range. The current hesitation reflects uncertainty about whether the market has reached a definitive bottom.

Read: Bitcoin’s Year of Accumulation.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
3 votes, average: 4.67 out of 53 votes, average: 4.67 out of 53 votes, average: 4.67 out of 53 votes, average: 4.67 out of 53 votes, average: 4.67 out of 5 (3 votes, average: 4.67 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.7 stars on average, based on 743 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Recent Posts

A part of CCN

Hacked.com is Neutral and Unbiased

Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

Trending