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Bitcoin Price and Seasonality: The Coming Rally? 

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A confluence of technical and fundamental indicators has sparked a big rally in the price of bitcoin this week. The cryptocurrency has found support at $7,400 and, after a short breather, appears poised to test $8,000 in relatively short order.

While the debate over bitcoin’s short-term outlook continues, a historical price analysis reveals that the summer sizzle is nothing new. In fact, the months of July and August tend to exhibit strongly bullish patterns going back six years.

Bitcoin’s Hot Summers

The adage “sell in May and walk away” aptly describes trading patterns of traditional markets such as stocks but appears to go against the grain of bitcoin’s price patterns. Historically, bitcoin has generated large returns in the summer months. Going back to 2012, the only major outlier was 2014 when bitcoin rallied in July but fell in August.

While bitcoin has rallied over the past 48 hours, its gains for the month of July have been modest in comparison to previous years. A rosy August outlook suggests prices could be poised for a bigger breakout in the near term.

Although past performance is no guarantee of future success, seasonality plays a vital role in our understanding of the financial markets. In fact, there is an entire literature devoted to understanding how seasonal influences affect market prices.

Bitcoin: Starting Slow and Finishing Strong

Market researchers have also identified price patterns at different points of the year, with the “January effect” and “Santa Claus rally” forming a critical backbone to our understanding of seasonality.

Unlike stocks, which typically rise in January, bitcoin usually struggles out of the gate. Going back six years, the bitcoin price has declined in January in the following years: 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2018. Given the relatively small sample size, it’s not entirely clear why bitcoin struggles to start the year. However, the most recent January downturn was not unexpected given the previous month’s massive peak.

Although bitcoin often starts the year in a defensive position, the price has historically rallied in December. To get there, we usually contend with another bumpy month in the form of September.

Against this backdrop, the worst months for bitcoin tend to be January, May and September. So far this year, January and May have been difficult months for the cryptocurrency. It remains to be seen whether history will repeat itself in the coming months.

Bitcoin Price Levels

After a brief dip, the bitcoin price has held relatively steady on Thursday, with values hovering well north of $7,400. Trading volumes are a healthy $5.6 billion, well above the minimum threshold that usually accompanies a major rally attempt.

Bitcoin continues to trade near 40-day highs. Following the successful defense of $7,200, the bulls could be in position to extend the rally toward $8,000 – a level that has eluded BTC/USD for the better part of two months.

According to Barry Silbert, founder of the Digital Currency Group (DCG), the bitcoin price may have finally bottomed as institutional traders look to stake their position in the market.

In a recent interview with CNBC, Silbert said, “…the bears just kind of ran out of energy,” noting that bitcoin has managed to overcome overwhelming FUD.

“When the chair of the Fed says negative things about bitcoin, and Howard Marks says negative things about bitcoin, and Ken Griffin says negative things about bitcoin, and bitcoin doesn’t move, I think that’s a bullish sign,” he said.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 735 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s Price Recovery Stalls as BitMEX Shuts Down U.S. Accounts

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Bitcoin’s rally stalled on Tuesday after Hong Kong futures exchange BitMEX announced it was closing U.S. accounts amid growing regulatory scrutiny. As Hacked reported since November, BitMEX has emerged as the biggest virtual market for BTC trades based on percentage of daily trade volumes.

BTC/USD Update

The bitcoin price notched a session high of $3,572.87 on Tuesday, according to CCN’s data feed. It was last seen hovering just below $3,700, having gained 2.8% over the past 24 hours. However, it should be noted that bitcoin rose sharply in the late morning of Monday’s session, so the 24-hour price tracker is a bit skewed.

Bitcoin’s sudden rally on Monday was significant for technical traders eyeing the $3,550-$3,500 support level. A breach below this level would have devastating consequences and likely lead to a re-test of the December low near $3,100.

Bitcoin’s short-term momentum indicators have improved since Monday’s rally attempt. The following chart, which is based on Bitstamp price data, highlight the momentum shift based on the RSI and MACD.

Trading in BTC reached $5.7 billion on virtual exchanges, according to CoinMarketCap. Volumes have increased sharply this year as long-dormant bitcoin accounts become active again. Dormant accounts began moving their coins in October, leading to a sharp rise in bitcoin’s circulating supply. More on this story: Bitcoin Likely Headed Lower as Whales Activate Long-Dormant Accounts.

BitMEX Closes U.S. Accounts

One of the world’s fastest growing cryptocurrency exchanges has pulled the plug on its North American market, citing increased regulatory scrutiny in the United States and the Canadian province of Quebec.

The decision, which was reported by CCN and the South China Morning Post, came in direct response to regulatory crackdowns targeting unlicensed cryptocurrency exchanges. In addition to ceasing operations in the U.S. and Quebec, BitMEX has advised clients in North Korea, Iran, Syria, Cuba, Sudan and Sevastopol (Crimea) against holding positions or trading on the platform.

BitMEX rose to prominence in the latter half of 2018 as traders began shorting bitcoin in record amounts. During the depths of the bear market in November and December, as much as one-third of bitcoin’s virtual exchange volume was processed on BitMEX. Spot markets accounted for the rest.

Last month, BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes told the Unchained podcast that 24/7 markets represent the wave of the future and that other financial instruments will soon follow cryptocurrencies in around-the-clock trading. His firm processed nearly $1 trillion in trading volume over the past year.

More: Cryptocurrencies Still Recovering Strong After Monday Rally; BitMEX Sees 24/7 Trading as the Future

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 735 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Lite.IM Surpasses Facebook In Race To Support Cryptocurrency Compatible Messenger

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Since the early part of 2018, crypto traders have been bombarded with bad news.  Hacks, broken promises, and overall lack of enthusiasm have resulted in huge losses.  But more than that, some promising cryptocurrencies just haven’t survived.  As traders look to the future, they should begin looking at projects that have the potential to disrupt industries and take them to the next level.  One company that has the potential to accomplish that is Zulu Republic (ZTX).

Zulu Republic is an ecosystem of blockchain tools and platforms, designed as a place where people, businesses, and organizations can thrive on their own terms.  The company’s stated mission is to advance the development of decentralized technologies, to promote human rights and empowerment around the globe, and to reduce the global digital divide.

Well the company is off to a great start with the development of Lite.IM.

What is Lite.IM? 

Lite.IM is a project aimed at expanding global cryptocurrency adoption.  With Lite.IM, users can send, receive, and manage Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), and the company’s native currency (ZTX), on Facebook Messenger, Telegram, and SMS (in the USA and Canada).  To get started managing these cryptocurrencies on the aforementioned platforms, users simply need to send a text-based command to the Lite.IM bot.  The commands are as follows:

Telegram:  @LiteIM_bot

Facebook Messenger:  @lite.im

SMS (USA and Canada only):  760-LITEIM-0

Competition with Facebook

On December 21st, 2018, Facebook announced that it was developing its own stable cryptocurrency that users would be allowed to exchange through its popular chat service, WhatsApp.  But while Facebook’s initial approach will target users based in India, Lite.IM is open to everyone in the world.  Further, Zulu Republic has previously mentioned that they expect to announce support for WhatsApp in the next few weeks.  It certainly appears as though Lite.IM has the upper hand here.  And that is before even addressing Facebook’s obvious privacy concerns.

When it comes to cryptocurrency, privacy and security have always been two issues at the forefront.  Given the rough year that Facebook has had in that regard, users must certainly be forgiven if they have trouble trusting the social media giant.  In September, 2018, Facebook announced that an attack on its computer network had exposed the personal information of nearly 50 million users.  Apparently, the hackers were able to exploit a feature in Facebook’s code to gain access to user accounts.  Even prior to this announcement, Facebook was already under Congressional scrutiny over revelations that a British analytics firm obtained access to private information from nearly 87 million Facebook users.  Not to mention Facebook’s rumored involvement with Russian election meddling.  Suffice it to say, it has been a tumultuous year for Facebook.

And while users may have concerns trusting Facebook’s ability to handle cryptocurrency data, they shouldn’t have those same concerns with Lite.IM.  Private keys are RSA encrypted with the user’s password.  Lite.IM will never ask for that information nor will it be stored.  Because of this, no third party will ever have access to that valuable information.

Conclusion

The truth of the matter is that Facebook is an absolute giant and has grown at an extraordinary rate since its initial public offering.  Facebook has hired some incredible talent, from executive positions to marketing to development.  And while one should never count them out, I simply wouldn’t be able to trust them with all of the recent issues.  Perhaps in time, after regaining the public’s trust, users could once again look to Facebook as a leader.

Fortunately, users have another strong and dependable option.  Lite.IM will allow users all over the world to manage popular cryptocurrencies via their favorite messenger platform.  Users should continue to stay tuned for future developments.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Bitcoin

News Flash: Crypto Markets Swing Higher as Bitcoin Climbs Above $3,700

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Crypto markets turned green Monday morning, as bitcoin avoided a major breakdown that would have paved the way for a re-test of last month’s low. Although the bulls aren’t out of the woods yet, the sharp rebound offers some reassurance that further downside will be limited.

Sudden Rebound

The cryptocurrency market capitalization added $5 billion in less than an hour, reaching a high near $124 billion ahead of the noon hour. Crypto markets bottomed near $116 billion on Sunday as trade volumes plummeted. Active trading has increased by over $4 billion in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin jumped 3% to a high of $3,748.20, according to CCN’s price tracker. It had traded in the low $3,500 range earlier in the day, setting the stage for a major move lower. That’s because bitcoin has established long-term support near $3,550 and a convincing drop below that floor would have been disastrous in the near term. The BTC price has crossed below that line on several occasions stretching back to last Thursday but has recovered each time.

Bitcoin was last seen hovering right around $3,705, according to CoinMarketCap.

The top-ranked cryptocurrencies all reported gains in the last hour and were trading in positive territory compared with Sunday. Ethereum jumped 7.6% to $129.03. XRP added 3.5% to $0.3352. Bitcoin cash advanced 4.2% to $132.73.

EOS rose 6.3% to $2.46. The value of Stellar climbed 2.8% to $0.1093.

Tron was the market’s top performer, gaining 12.2% to reach $0.0244. The TRX token kick-started the rally roughly 12 hours earlier as prices broke out of a short-term bottom. More on that story can be found here: Tron Flashes Rare Green Despite Warning About BitTorrent Token.

No Immediate Catalyst

Aside from technical re-positioning, there were no fundamental reasons for the sudden reversal Monday morning. However, bitcoin’s overwhelming pull on the broader market likely impacted the sharp rise in altcoins and tokens. Alternative cryptocurrencies have traded in lockstep with bitcoin since the bear market re-emerged last year. That’s unlikely to change anytime soon, especially as crypto projects contend with a crisis of legitimacy following the 2017 ICO boom.

The debate over regulation will likely heat up over the next six weeks as investors eye a landmark decision on a highly-touted bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will deliver its ruling on the VanEck-SolidX Bitcoin Fund on Feb. 27.

The SEC’s compliance department has identified cryptocurrency as a top priority in 2019 and has vowed to step up its monitoring efforts. This means broker-dealers, trading platforms and investment advisers will face greater scrutiny moving forward. More on this story: As Race for Bitcoin ETF Heats Up, SEC Identifies Cryptocurrency as a Top Priority in 2019.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 735 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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