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Weekly Forecast: Cryptocurrency Prices Search for Reprieve Following $100 Billion Correction

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Cryptocurrency prices have shed nearly $100 billion in market capitalization over the past two weeks. In the process, bitcoin touched its lowest levels of 2018 and EOS gave back almost two-thirds of its April peak.

Market participants have been struggling to explain the multi-week selloff, which has defied rationality amid a flurry of positive developments hitting the airwaves. The search for an elusive bottom will continue in the final week of June as investors await new breakthroughs in institutional adoption and custodial services.

Battered Market Searches for Direction

From $344 billion to $241 billion, cryptocurrencies have experienced an epic meltdown over the last 14 days. Analysts have posited several theories for the correction, from market manipulation to the gradual unwinding of large positions held by the so-called bitcoin whales.

In recent days, the selloff appears to be driven by technical re-positioning after bitcoin failed to break above key resistance hurdles. The subsequent declines has exposed new support levels for the digital currency, with technical strategists now eyeing $5,850 as the next major bottom.

On June 12, cryptocurrency analyst and bitcoin bull Ran Neu-Ner correctly predicted that BTC/USD values would fall below $6,250. His forecast indicated that a deeper correction below $5,000 is possible in the short-term. Tony Vays, host of the Crypto Scam podcast, has also predicted a breakdown below $5,000.

An analysis of bitcoin’s technical indicators – namely, the RSI, MACD and Stochastics – reveals that the digital currency is trending closely with its 2014 bear market. With the bears reasserting control of the market, investors can expect continued volatility over the next seven days. (Ironically, the latest bout of turbulence began shortly after Hacked reported that bitcoin volatility had declined to its lowest level in over a year.)

EOS: PR Nightmare Continues

While no major cryptocurrency has been spared from the recent carnage, EOS continues to lead the declines following a botched mainnet launch earlier this month. For example, EOS was down by as much as 13% Sunday compared with single-digit losses for bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple XRP.

EOS’ developers have been criticized by Cornell professor Emin Gun Sirer and smart contracts pioneer Nick Szabo for not seeking assistance from blockchain experts prior to the mainnet launch. Sirer and Szabo, among others, have also criticized the network for centralization issues.

EOS is severely oversold from a price perspective, but that may not be enough to reverse its bad fortunes. The PR nightmare continued last week after the EOS Core Arbitration Forum (ECAF) directed block producers to avoid processing transactions from 27 wallet addresses.

Sam Sapoznick, the ECAF Interim Emergency Arbitrator, issued the following statement:

“It is hereby ordered that the EOS Block Producers refuse to process transactions for the following accounts and keys indefinitely. (Until further official notice and instruction from the ECAF.)”

Economic Calendar

In conventional markets, investors can expect a steady stream of economic data over the next five days. The following releases are  most pressing for traders of stocks, currencies and commodities.

Monday

ICO’s monthly report on German business confidence will be in the headlines at the beginning of the week. In North America, the U.S. Commerce Department will report on new home sales for the month of May.

Tuesday

U.S. home-price data courtesy of S&/Case-Shiller will be released on Tuesday. The Richmond Federal Reserve will also report on regional manufacturing activity.

On the monetary policy front, speeches from FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Robert Kaplan are scheduled for Tuesday.

Wednesday

Keeping with economic data, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to deliver a speech mid-week. BOE officials last week sent a strong signal that interest rates could be on the move this summer.

In terms of economic data, the U.S. Commerce Department will report on trade and durable goods orders. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release weekly crude inventory data, which will be closely watched by commodity traders following OPEC’s decision to raise production levels on Friday.

Thursday

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will deliver an interest-rate verdict on Thursday. No change in policy is expected.

On the data front, the European Commission’s statistical agency will release a bevy of sentiment indicators, including reports on consumer confidence and the business climate. Investors can also expect flash CPI data for Germany and Italy.

The U.S. government will publish its third and final estimate of Q1 GDP on Thursday.

Friday

German unemployment and retail sales figures will headline an active European session on Friday. Eurostat will also release preliminary CPI data for the month of June.

In the United States, personal incomes and outlays will be in the headlines. The monthly report will include the latest estimate of core personal consumption expenditures, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 502 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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weekly forecast

Weekly Forecast: The Search for Volume Continues as Bitcoin Eyes Breakout

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Dogged by weak trading volumes, regulatory constraints and a lack of direction, cryptocurrency prices have failed to make headway over the past two months. The search for volume continues over the next seven days as bitcoin’s bulls eye a potential breakout following the successful defense of $6,000 – a key technical and psychological threshold.

Economic data, corporate earnings and a high-profile meeting between two heads of state will influence traditional markets this week.

Cryptocurrency Market in Search of Direction

After posting their first weekly gain in a month, cryptocurrency prices were back on the defensive last week as tepid trading volumes and a lack of momentum drove investors to the sidelines.

The bulk of the declines last week occurred between Monday and Tuesday, with the total market capitalization falling more than $20 billion over that brief stretch. For the remainder of the week, bitcoin and its altcoin counterparts held within a relatively narrow range as trading volumes continued to drop. On Saturday, volumes reached their lowest levels of the year, according to CoinMarketCap.

The cryptocurrency market has been capped below $300 billion since June 10. However, the downturn appears to have reached its climax following bitcoin’s repeated defense of a key psychological marker.

Bitcoin’s price is making headway toward $6,400 as the market continues to place a floor at roughly $6,000. If bitcoin continues to defend this level in the coming days, investors should reasonably expect another bullish breakout attempt targeting the July 8 high near $6,900. The broader market will likely follow suit given bitcoin’s 43% dominance.

Earnings Spotlight

U.S. stocks ended the week in positive territory as earnings optimism and tech-driven gains propelled the major indexes higher. The Nasdaq Composite Index recorded back-to-back record closes Thursday and Friday.

A trio of bank earnings Friday marked the unofficial start to corporate reporting season. Three additional banks are scheduled to report between July 16-18: Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs Group (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS). Dow industrials Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) are also due for Q2 results.

So far, 5% of S&P 500 companies have reported second-quarter results. Among them, 89% have posted better than expected earnings and 85% have reported a positive revenue surprise, according to FactSet.

Economic Calendar

From the perspective of stocks, commodities and currencies, the following events will influence investor sentiment this week.

Monday

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin will meet Monday mere days after 12 Russian intelligence officials were charged by a federal grand jury for meddling in the 2016 presidential elections.

President Trump says he has “low expectations” for the summit but reassured that “nothing bad” will come out of the meeting with Putin.

In economic data, the Chinese government will release second-quarter GDP data on Monday, along with a batch of reports covering retail sales, industrial production and fixed-asset investment.

In the United States, the Commerce Department will release the latest retail sales figures for June.

Tuesday

The U.K. Office for National Statistics will release the latest employment and wage figures for the month of May. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve will report on June industrial production.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress Tuesday with a follow-up panel scheduled for Wednesday.

Wednesday

Final Eurozone consumer inflation data for June will make the rounds Wednesday. In the U.S., housing starts and building permits will be in the headlines. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will also release its weekly crude inventory report for the period ended July 13.

Thursday

Economic data is once again in the spotlight on Thursday, with Australian employment and U.K. retail sales being the main focus.

In the U.S., the Labor Department will report on weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed will unveil its July manufacturing survey.

Friday

In the final session of the week, the Canadian government will report on consumer inflation and retail sales – the first major reports since the Bank of Canada (BOC) voted to raise interest rates for the fourth time in 12 months.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 502 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Weekly Forecast: Cryptocurrencies Aim Higher Following Weekend Bounce as India Mulls New Market Regulations

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After two months of contraction, the cryptocurrency market appears to have finally formed a new bottom. The downward consolidation, and subsequent bounce, has sparked renewed optimism that the worst may be over.

On the regulatory front,India’s government will receive a draft version of a new cryptocurrency bill that proponents say could reverse the central bank’s clampdown on digital currency exchanges.

Cryptocurrencies Show Positive Momentum

Whether cryptocurrencies have actually regained momentum or merely bounced off oversold levels remains subject to debate. What is clear is the fact that the market attracted more buying interest this weekend. Bitcoin is showing the most potential, with prices approaching $6,400 for the first time in about nine days.

Rebounding trade volumes have investors feeling more optimistic about the latest price bounce. Total market turnover approached $15 billion on Sunday after falling near two-and-a-half-month lows just a few days earlier.

It remains to be seen whether retail buying interest is strong enough to sustain the next leg of the great crypto-market recovery. Although organizations such as Coinbase are betting on institutional capital, the banks and hedge funds remain a long ways away from controlling the market.

From the retail perspective, the biggest challenge appears to be attracting new buyers. Google search trends for terms such as “bitcoin” and “cryptocurrency” have improved as of late, but remain well below levels seen in December and January. Google trends are seen as an important proxy for retail demand.

Draft Cryptocurrency Bill to Be Received by India

Department of Economic Affairs secretary Subash Chandra Garg confirmed last month that an Indian sub-committee will present a new framework for regulating cryptocurrencies. The draft bill is expected for the first week of July, Garg said in an interview with one of India’s largest business networks.

In April, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) barred regulated financial institutions from serving digital currency exchanges and their users, but failed to provide convincing rationale for their actions. The Bank’s lack of direction was later confirmed by an information request showing no clear strategy or reasoning behind the ban.

Although India remains a relatively small hub for digital currency activity, the central bank’s decision cast a dark shadow over the nation’s ability to one day embrace the digital asset market. The committee tasked with reviewing the RBI’s actions appears to be against the ban, which means more favorable regulations could be on the way.

Economic Calendar

From the perspective of stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies, the following items will drive investor sentiment this week.

Monday

A flood of PMI data will make headlines on Monday, with reports covering Germany, Italy, France and the broader Eurozone. The Institute for Supply Management will also unveil the latest in U.S. manufacturing PMI.

Separately, the European Commission’s statistical agency will release its May employment and producer inflation reports.

Tuesday

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver its latest interest-rate verdict on Tuesday. No change in monetary policy is expected.

In the United States, the Commerce Department will release the May factory orders report.

Wednesday

U.S. markets are closed Wednesday for Independence Day. In terms of economic data, Caixin China will release services PMI during the Asian session. IHS Markit will also unveil final Eurozone PMI.

Thursday

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June policy meetings are scheduled for release on Thursday. The Fed’s policy-setting board voted last month to raise interest rates.

In terms of economic data, German factory orders, U.S. private sector job creation and U.S. non-manufacturing PMI are the major market-moving events.

Friday

On Friday, the U.S. Labor Department will release what’s arguably the most closely-watched data series of the month: nonfarm payrolls. The monthly employment report provides the latest breakdown of job creation, unemployment and wage inflation.

North of the border, the Canadian government will also report on June employment levels.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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1 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 5 (1 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
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4.6 stars on average, based on 502 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Weekly Forecast: Crypto Markets Search for Direction After Plunge; Monetary Policy Remains in Focus

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Cryptocurrencies stabilized over the weekend after a multi-day crash wiped more than $60 billion off market prices. Fallout from the latest bout of crypto carnage will be top of mind this week as investors look to the technical and fundamental indicators for an inflection point. However, finding it may prove difficult given the market’s general apathy as of late toward positive news.

In conventional markets, monetary policy will continue to drive the agenda as the Bank of England prepares to deliver its next interest-rate verdict. A bevy of central-bank speakers, including ECB President Mario Draghi and the Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell, will be in the headlines throughout the week.

Cryptocurrencies: Bull Market in Jeopardy

As Hacked’s Mate Czer rightly identified Saturday in his long-term analysis, the cryptocurrency market’s upward trajectory is in jeopardy as bitcoin approaches a crucial breakdown and altoins trade below their large-scale consolidation.

Anchored by bitcoin’s price collapse, cryptocurrency prices have faced strong headwinds since the April run-up. Trading volumes during the weekend fell to their lowest levels in over two months. At the time of writing, 24-hour trade volumes had fallen below $10 billion.

Diminished trading activity makes large fluctuations in crypto prices more likely. It also points to subdued buying interest, which is keeping the supply of cryptocurrencies elevated. Without adequate turnover, a sustained rally in prices will prove exceedingly difficult. (As a comparison, the bullish reversal in April saw daily transaction volumes average between $20 billion and $30 billion).

At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency market was collectively valued at $279 billion, down from $320 billion this time last week.

Monetary Policy

The week of June 11-15 proved significant from the perspective of monetary policy as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates and the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled for the gradual winding down of crisis-era stimulus.

The Bank of England (BOE) will deliver its next policy verdict on Thursday in a vote that is expected to go 7-2 in favor of keeping interest rates on hold. BOE policymakers are juggling a slowdown in economic growth and progress on the Brexit front, which has complicated the outlook on monetary policy.

The European Central Bank’s Mario Draghi is scheduled to deliver speeches throughout the week, where he will have the opportunity to expand on the Governing Council’s decision to end quantitative easing by year’s end.

Economic Calendar

Economic data and monetary policy are in focus over the next five days. Below are the most pressing events from around the world.

Monday

Monetary policy will headline the economic calendar at the start of the week. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members Elizabeth Duke, Raphael Bostic and John Williams are all scheduled to deliver speeches.

Mario Draghi will also deliver opening remarks at the ECB’s Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal.

Tuesday

The U.S. Commerce Department will report on housing starts and building permits on Tuesday. Housing starts are forecast to climb 4.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.31 million units. Permits, meanwhile, are projected to fall 0.6% to a 1.355 million-unit pace.

Wednesday

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver public remarks Wednesday just one week after the U.S. central bank hiked interest rates for the second time this year. FOMC members are eyeing two more upward adjustments this year.

Mario Draghi will be participating on an ECB Forum panel in Sintra on Wednesday. Colleague Benoit Coeure will also be participating in a panel on the microeconomics of price and wage-setting.

In terms of economic data, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will report on U.S. existing home sales Wednesday morning.

Thursday

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will coalesce in Vienna, Austria Thursday for its biannual meeting. The Saudi-led regime is widely expected to raise production caps in an effort to retain market share following the yearlong recovery in crude prices.

In monetary policy, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is scheduled to deliver its interest-rate verdict at 07:30 GMT. No change in policy is expected.

The Bank of England’s rate verdict is due at 11:00 GMT.

U.S. economic data will also be in the spotlight as the Labor Department reports on weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed unveils its June manufacturing index.

Friday

IHS Markit on Friday will release a bevy of preliminary PMI data for Eurozone members states. The Eurozone Composite purchasing managers’ index, which tracks manufacturing and services activity, is forecast to hold steady at 54.1 for June.

Markit’s flash U.S. Composite PMI is projected to fall to 55.1 in June from 56.6 in May.

North of the border, the Canadian government will report on consumer inflation and retail sales, two high-profile reports that could impact the currency markets.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 502 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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