Daily Analysis: Oil and Gold Shine as War Fears Persist

Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2347 -0.25%
DAX 12139 -0.15%
WTI Crude Oil 53.63 0.24%
GOLD 1277.75 1.05%
Bitcoin 1213 0.10%
EUR/USD 1.0614 0.00%


Global stocks are relatively strong today, despite the surge in safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese Yen. The surprising escalation regarding North Korea added to the tensions concerning Syria, although no direct conflict is likely between Russia, the US, and China. Oil also continued to march higher as Saudi Arabia voiced its intentions to extend the production cuts that were started in late 2016. The major indices are well above the lows from yesterday afternoon, with the European benchmarks being stronger and Japanese stocks being relatively weaker thanks to the yen’s rise.

Currencies are little changed so far, even the Pound is stable, despite the release of the crucial British employment report earlier today, which came in mixed. Wages grew by more than expected, while employment growth disappointed analysts. WTI crude oil is now back to the $54 per barrel level, right where it was in early March before it’s strong move lower, as geopolitical fears drive the price of the crucial commodity higher.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Crytpocurrencies are mostly stable today, with Bitcoin still holding above the $1200 level, but below the short-term resistance at $1215. Litecoin remains the most volatile major altcoin, as it continues to trade around the $10 level in a wide consolidation pattern. Monero, Ripple and Dash are also trading near yesterday’s levels with Dash still being the weakest of pack. Ethereum is also still in the range that it has been hovering in for two weeks now.

Technical Picture

S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The S&P 500 had a strong momentum move to the downside yesterday afternoon, but the index proved its short-term strength once again as it shot back higher later on and now it’s trading near the line-in-the-sand support/resistance zone near $2350 once again. The MACD also confirms the sideways price action, as t remains stuck near the 0 level, giving no clear signals. The low volatility environment could soon lead to a violent move, when the price leaves the current range.

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
10:30 CHINA CPI (yearly) 0.90% 1.10% 0.80%
11:00 UK Average Earnings 2.30% 2.10% 2.20%
14:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.70% 4.70% 4,7%
14:30 CANADA Base Interest Rate 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -2.2 million -0.7 million 1.6 million


Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
2:30 AUSTRALIA Employment Change 20,300 -6,400
2:30 AUSTRALIA Unemployment Rate 5.90% 5.90%
3:30 CHINA Trade Balance 76 billion -60 billion
14:30 CANADA Manufacturing Sales -0.40% 0.6%
14:30 US PPI (monthly) 0.00% 0.3%
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) 242,000 234,000
Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.