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Crypto: Is Relative Value Investing Time Finally Here?

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For at least the past six months you have been kind enough to listen while the topic of relative value in cryptocurrencies has repeated more than once.  Could it finally be happening? Things are certainly in place. It seems to show every time the price of Bitcoin or any of the altcoins suddenly spikes for no apparent reason.

That is the time when investors buy crypto simply because there is no better value in things like stocks, bonds, real estate, gold or currencies.  So far this has not happened all that often, but things could finally be changing. The fact that crypto prices remain near 2018 lows, and with certain exceptions, the news has been pretty good, helps set the stage.

Until now investors in conventional assets have been simply too content.  And why not, the economy in the US is humming at a 4.2% annual rate. The S&P 500 has tacked on another 8.5% so far and seems to be cruising through the traditionally volatile month of September to reach new records.  

And here is the real tattle tale, the CBOE VIX is near 2018 lows around 11. Without going into all the details, the VIX is Wall Street’s traditional measure of investor fear.  During the 2008 financial crisis, the VIX hit 60. Back in February it was at 37. That was about the time the S&P 500 fell 10%. So get the idea: today, investors are too content.  That needs to change before crypto’s relative value shines through. Here is something to focus on.

The key to the above average S&P performance has been the contribution of the tech sector. When you take out the near 22% increase from the market cap weighted S&P, well, you cut well over half of that performance down to only about 3%.  That still not bad, but it indicates a far more narrow market than smart investors should be comfortable with. What would happen to the VIX if the tech sector suddenly took a dive of 10%?

Sound crazy? Hardly, a 10%+ correction in tech stocks has taken place three times just since 2016, so this isn’t a far fetched idea.  In fact Barbara Kollmeyer at MarketWatch just penned an article titled: Bad news is building for this once-hot tech sector.  If her views prove out, this could be the key to driving investors to some of the values offered by crypto.

It all starts with the social media companies that form the backbone of the FANG stocks. Here is a sample. She opens with the thoughts of Tony Greer who heads TG Macro and who has a sour message on Twitter (TWTR) and Facebook (FB). According to Tony: “It’s finally time to be short social media” pointing out a “massive topping pattern.”

While the stock market generally may not be experiencing traditional levels of volatility, lately tech stocks have charted a different course.  In referring to that change, Greer identifies September as a time of big change.

“That period of volatility put in a big top and a double top in the social media ETF. Now it has broken its steepest ascending trend line, it’s broken down below all the major moving averages and they’re starting to curl over on top of it, which to me is going to cause another leg of a waterfall.”

The final proof of technical weakness is shown in the Global X Social Media ETF that contains a handful of social media names from Facebook, Twitter and Alphabet. This little gauge is actually down around 3% this year.

In addition to his technical observations, he points the negativity surrounding the Cambridge Analytica scandal, subsequent upbeat earnings, then news that the platform was losing users.

Technology Is More Than Social Media

Lest we look for just any reason to be buying crypto it is only fair to mention the obvious. So far this year the tech sector has managed to add 22% even with the substantial underperformance of social media.  Any notion of painting the world coming to an end would be misleading.

However, technology has many interrelated links and sometimes when one sector is under pressure it can spread.  In the meantime the gap between overvalued stocks and depressed crypto prices is setting the stage for the search for value to have its day in the sun. So keep one eye on the VIX.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 114 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Zcash (ZEC) Price Analysis: Market Cap Growth Continues, More Updates Coming Soon

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  • Zcash moves up to rank 19 on the top cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
  • The Sapling upgrade just a few days away, as Zcash team suggest there could be more announcements soon.

Zcash (ZEC) continues to jump up the ladder, with its growing market capitalization. Last week it managed to creep into the top 20 cryptocurrencies, by market cap. Most recently, it has now moved up to rank 19. At the time of writing, it is seen at $624.5 million, ahead of VeChain (VET) with $612.6 million.

Countdown for Sapling Upgrade

It is just under 6 days now until the anticipated Sapling upgrade from the Zcash foundation. According to the firm, ‘Activation block 419200 will be mined October 29, 2018 01:31 UTC+00:00 assuming 150 seconds/block.’ The build-up of this is something that has appeared to be very supportive in the elevation of the ZEC price.

The Sapling is a network upgrade that boasts increased efficiency for transactions of which are shielded. They will facilitate broad mobile, exchange and vendor adoption of the Zcash shielded addresses. Zcash’s goal is to also see increased speed with these shielded transactions; it is touted that transactions can be shielded in less than 1 second.

New Announcements Coming Soon?

The Zcash team via their Twitter account have continued to count down their upcoming upgrade, tweeting “Is your product is #Sapling-ready? Or you would like to learn more about supporting the #Zcash Sapling upgrade? Reach out and let’s connect!” Within the tweet, they covered existing Salping-ready services listing; Bithumb, BitGo, Coinomi, Lamassu, Ledger, Suprnova, Trezor and WinZEC. They noted “MORE COMING SOON!” implying there are potential pending partnerships and integrations in the works.

Technical Review – Daily Chart

ZEC/USD daily chart

ZEC/USD bulls are on the hunt for an extended breakout north, as a vital trend line is being tested. A break of the mentioned resistance is seen tracking at $126. If a breach and daily close above, should open to door wide open to some buying pressure. The bulls will be met right away by some supply running from $130-133. As a result, sellers have knocked the price down throughout October, within this territory. Finally, for upside targets, a rally up to $145, would like then come into play. The price last traded here on 28th September.

In terms of support, this is seen all the way back down at $110. A lower supporting trend line can be observed tracking here. This has been active since mid-September. Furthermore, a buying area is noted from $100-95.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 33 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Binance Listing Announcement Triggers 29% Growth For Decred (DCR)

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Yet another coin just felt the beneficial effect of a listing on Binance – the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by adjusted volume.

Following Tuesday’s announcement by the Binance team, Decred will be listed on the exchange starting Wednesday, October 24th.

The previous month has been one in which the power of a listing on a major exchange has made itself obvious. Just two weeks ago Ravencoin (RVN) gained a Binance listing and shot to 351% growth. Meanwhile Basic Attention Token (BAT) gained close to 50% in the last week based on the mere speculation that the Coinbase exchange would be listing it soon.

DCR/USD Surge

As you can see from the chart below, it seems very few people knew about the DCR listing until it was announced by Binance.

The early morning spike hit just as the blog post was tweeted out, and over the next few hours DCR went on to record 29% gains – climbing from a price of $38.79 to $50.35.

The coin’s trade volume increased by a factor of 2,260% as it rose from the $500,000 range up to the current sum of $11.8 million. The majority of those trades have come in the form of the DCR/BTC and DCR/KRW pairs, with Bittrex, Huobi and Upbit housing most of the action.

With the morning’s spike, DCR bypassed weekly and monthly highs, while the quarterly high of $70 is still some distance away.

The project began development in 2015, and the coin remained below the $3 price range for nearly two years, up until it was carried along with the rest of the market in 2017’s surge.

Binance Picks Up Decred

The Binance blog post published on Tuesday morning states:

“Fellow Binancians, Binance will open trading for DCR/BNB and DCR/BTC trading pairs at 2018/10/24 04:00 AM (UTC). Users can now start depositing DCR in preparation for trading.”

The Decred team on Twitter followed this up with a celebratory tweet thanking Binance and its founder CZ for the listing on the exchange:

“Thank you @cz_binance & @binance, we’re honored to have $DCR listed on your exchange!”

Binance’s own informational on Decred emphasizes its use as a transactional currency, and notes that the coin will never experience the issue of having to hardfork, stating:

“Decred is similar to Bitcoin. There will only be 21M coins created, ever. The big difference: Decred uses advanced and innovative technology that solves blockchain governance. No hard forks needed. Exchanges will never have to deal with customer requests for splits. The general public will never have to sift through contentious forks or be fooled by claims of a “better Decred.”

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 82 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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XRP Price Analysis: Reports Indicate National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) is Set to Go Live With xCurrent

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  • Sources suggest National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) are moving closer to going live within Ripple’s xCurrent solution.
  • Despite current XRP/USD selling pressure, a bullish technical set up is still seen as a potential.

National Bank of Kuwait Ready to Use xCurrent

One of the largest banks in the Middle East, National Bank of Kuwait (NBK), is readying to move forward with xCurrent. It is reported this could be in place within the next few weeks. xCurrent is Ripple’s enterprise software solution that facilitates banks to instantly settle cross-border payments, providing end-to-end tracking.

The latest suggested is that the NBK are currently awaiting to receive the green light from the Central Bank of Kuwait. Sources close to the matter, are said to note that NBK are currently preparing for its first transaction with the xCurrent solution. In terms of time frame, the suggestions are for the back end of October, or by early November. These sources are being cited by the newswire, Crypto Briefing.

Earlier this year, in May, the National Bank of Kuwait mentioned Ripple via their official Twitter account. They tweeted, “NBK leads the way in Kuwait in a partnership with RippleNet to offer instant cross-border payments to customers Ripple.” Nothing further on this, from either the NBK or Ripple was noted.

It is important to note that the xCurrent solution does not use XRP tokens, unlike xRapid, which enables banks to send payments using XRP. It can then be transacted back into the appropriate fiat currency by the receiver. On the basis of the above noted, it is likely to have a direct influence on the value of XRP.

Technical Review – 4-hour Chart

XRP/USD 4-hour chart

Despite the consistent downside pressure observed with XRP/USD, a potential bullish technical set up can still be eyed. As seen on the 4-hour time frame, price action has been moving within a bullish flag pattern. The lower support has recently been penetrated by the market bears.

Near-term support eyed immediately at $0.4660-40 area, the below trend line. Further south, a demand zone is seen running from $0.4535 down to $0.4350. This was an area that caught the price during some hard selling at the back end of September. Bulls managed to kick started a recovery at this low area on 25th September. Should this technical set up fail to play out, eyes will then be on $0.4000 for support. Last traded down here on 15th October. Lastly, looking at resistance, this is seen just ahead at $0.4650, upper trend line of the flag. Ahead, there is heavy supply heading into and within the $0.5000 territory.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 33 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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