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My Year as a Perma-Bear or How to Deal With Trading Biases

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What is a trading bias? Kurt Vonnegut wrote it once that opinions are strange things, everyone has one, but no one gives a damn about the others’. This is similar with trading biases; every trader has a view (usually a strong one) about the direction of the market, but the market doesn’t care about it one bit. So your trading bias is something personal; a thing that you have to deal with, for better or worse.

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Also, there is a neat little thing that behavioral finance calls confirmation bias. This is the tendency of people to filter the information they run into in a way that they only process the “facts” that confirm their beliefs while ignoring anything that would question the “truth”. If you combine this bias with trading, you will get a real financial weapon of mass destruction.

Wait, so I should have No Opinion??

First things first, I have to establish that having a trading bias is not a bad thing; in fact, the right bias could be the cornerstone of a very successful trading period that could last for years and years. Of course, this means being bullish in a bull market or being bearish in a declining market. Having a bullish bias towards stocks since 2009 or towards Bitcoin since 2015 has been definitely a lucrative thing.

With the right strategy, you can minimize losses, or even trade with a profit in a headwind as well, but the desirable state is to have a bias that is in line with the underlying trend, while being conscious about it, and always trying to avoid the trap of confirmation bias.

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When a Trading Bias gets Dangerous

Problems arise when your trading bias isn’t aligning with the direction of the market. In practice, this is not the worst thing, though, and for an experienced trader this situation is quite easy to handle.  That said, as one of my most painful trading mistakes proves, even being right doesn’t mean that you will end up with gains.

The harder part is when you have been right for a while, but the market starts to change. Changing your bias is very hard, especially when you are already conditioned that your approach is successful. This is why major turning points are so rough on traders. The good thing is that with proper money management and a good trading routine, you will notice that something is fishy before any major damage is done to your portfolio.

Managing your Biases

Routine, in general, is a good remedy against emotional mistakes and it provides great ways of identifying and dealing with your trading biases. How? It’s simple; your trading routines should reveal that your view of the market is wrong while also automatically reducing your exposure and activity level. I will show you that in practice but now let’s look at a real life example first.

My Personal Story

As I wrote in my post on overconfidence and risk management, I was heavily bearish on stocks in 2008, and even though I managed to destroy my profits once, I ended that year in the green thanks to that. The next year marked the end of the financial crisis, at least regarding US stocks, with the major indices all bottoming out in March.

Valuation metrics showed reasonable readings at that time, several technical measures were turning constructive, and the financial leaders finally went all in— basically announcing that the banks don’t have to comply with market valuation, and they will be saved no matter what.

That said, there were only a few analysts or investors screaming buy, buy, buy and I was also skeptical. Sure enough, I entered investment positions based on valuation, but I could have imagined that another year of decline was ahead of us with 20% more downside in the indices.

Waiting for the Elusive Re-Test

The S&P 500 after the end of the bear market in 2009

One hard year of biased trading against the trend

Long story short, throughout 2009 and up to mid-2010 I was trading stocks with a bearish bias, with a vision of a final re-test of the 2009 lows in my head, which (as we know now) never came. Confirmation bias reared up its ugly head as well; I was frustrated with bullish commentaries, and searched more and more for bearish news outlets and gurus. I wasn’t losing money, but my results were much worse than I felt they should have been.

On the flip side, I started working as a proprietary day-trader from the end of 2009 (while also managing my own savings), and the risk-management and planning techniques I learned there helped me in realizing that something is not right. One of the best methods I used was to cut back on trading in a losing streak and increase activity after a winning streak. This made me take a step back after a series of losing trades and without a position, it’s much easier to see clearly.

I also started using a trading journal and analyzing my trades more thoroughly. Those revealed that my problem was rooted in confirmation bias. Reading back the journal made it clear that I was looking for excuses to short, or to exit longs early (due to the upcoming re-test of course). Basically, I became a “Perma-Bear” for a short period, which is a very sad state in a bull market.

It would be an overstatement to say that after changing my approach it was only smooth sailing for me – there are plenty of other trading blunders to share… so stay tuned- but I became much more conscious about my biases, and much more open in my trading practices after this experience.

How to Change Biases?

For me the best way to remain flexible proved to be to try to trade in both directions all the time. Of course, I put emphasis (and commit more capital) on longs when I think that the asset is going up and vice versa, but I always try to place trades in the other direction as well.

This way there will be a clear indication that the trend is changing, as my counter-trend positions will start working while my primary trades will start failing. This method can be done without actually trading, by using a second, demo account to place the counter-trend trades if you are not comfortable with this somewhat scyzoprhenic mindset. You might say that a good trader will know when the trend changes, and you will be right in some cases, but believe me, this simple method will save you from a lot of headaches in your trading career.

Also, it is imperative to keep an open mind about your view on the assets that you trade and invest in. Always try to question your belief, and always make yourself read different opinions than your own. Confirmation bias is a nasty thing— it’s part of the self-defense mechanism of your unconscious, meaning that you have to fight it consciously.

The Takeaway and Some Timely Notes

About the current markets, if you have been reading my posts you might have already noticed, at least, some of my biases. I have a bullish view about gold, cryptocurrencies, and the Yen, while having a bearish bias towards US stocks and China and a less pronounced negative bias towards Europe, Japan, and other risk-assets.

These views are always subject to change, especially in the short-run, and I am placing trades against these biases, at least hypothetical ones, all the time. Also, my view changed on gold and not long ago, as they started behaving differently. I am also a bit suspicious about the coins following the latest incredible surge, although I wouldn’t short them with real money in this phase.

My point is that yes I have biases, but I treat them objectively not emotionally, and I won’t get offended if someone says that stocks will double in the next two years, or that gold will fall to 500. First, stranger things happened before in financial markets and, most importantly, I know that I won’t be stuck in my views if Mr. Market proves me otherwise.

So let’s sum this up:

  • Having a strong opinion about a market is good, but not knowing about the fact is bad
  • Always question the “obvious” truth and be aware of confirmation bias
  • Keep a trading journal and take the time to read it back regularly
  • Take a step back and reduce exposure after a losing streak
  • Be flexible in trading (especially short-term trading) and always try to think both as a bull and a bear

What do you think? What’s your experience with biases? Do you feel offended if someone says bad things about your favorite investment? Please share your opinion in the comments!

Great, and conscious, investing for all!

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 275 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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4 Comments

  1. maleshkov

    June 2, 2017 at 2:10 pm

    Great article. After my last huge mistake I am now in a long position again and fortunately the market most probably will compensate me very soon, but this is the last time I get biased and emotional about certain coins. I still haven’t learned to be a bear, but this has to happen next week. Last week I saw how easy is to lose a profit in two days, which has been accumulated for 2 months. Thanks

  2. embersburnbrightly

    June 2, 2017 at 3:59 pm

    Thank you for this article. The suggestions you have provided as a result of your own experiences will be quite helpful for those of us who are new to investing and trading. I have one question that has really started to become prominent for me as a new investor (with a current preference for long-term investing) that may tie into this, if you have any insights on this, please: For someone who is interested in long-term investing across a number of cryptocurrency types, what is a significance sign to watch for which would indicate that a particular coin or other investment is beginning a permanent downward trend, which would then indicate it is time to get out of that Investment? In other words, is there a classic sort of warning sign/pattern which indicates that a permanent downward trend is forming rather than just a temporary correction? It appears that corrections or temporary downturns can sometimes last quite some time, prior to an investment suddenly taking off again in value. How does one reasonably differentiate between a potential prolonged correction or downturn, versus a sign of a permanent decrease in value for an investment? That may not be a simple question to answer, but any recommendations/insights are appreciated; thank you in advance!

    • Mate Cser

      June 2, 2017 at 4:45 pm

      Great question, thanks! I will have a full post on this, but volume patterns, the depth of the correction, and the way the coin trades near support are great tells. For now, I think that the fundamental story is intact, and if you choose the winners well, the trend will be with you for a prolonged period. I will let you know when the detailed post is ready!

      • embersburnbrightly

        June 2, 2017 at 5:27 pm

        Beautiful! Thank you for the very prompt reply, and I look forward to the full post on this subject!

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My CFD Journey: 72,000 USD Up Today

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Wow the indexes are falling globally now. Dax is down with 1% today – same as Dow Jones. I would love to do a short call on these indexes, but that have seriously hurt my financial standings previously since we still are in a “bull” market with earnings reports beating forecasts and macroeconomic numbers excelling analysts viewpoints. I only want to trade by using trend following, so even if the markets are down, I love to do short buy calls as they most likely will rebound to new ATH (all time highs). The reason for just doing short buy calls is that we might be on the tipping point to a bearish market, but that’s something I would like confirmation on from e.g. macro numbers, earning reports and such. Until then, I’m quick in and out.

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Here is my results

Order Entry Price Take Profit Stop Loss USD Bank Roll USD % Change
Start 258 064,52
Day 1 25.01.2018 Dax Buy 13268 13274 13262 6 472,52 264 537,03 2,51
Day 2 26.01.2018 Dax Sell 13342 13318 13392 7 642,84 272 179,87 5,47
Day 3 29.01.2018 Dax Buy 13331 13336 13313 12 508,39 284 688,26 10,32
Day 4 30.01.2018 Dax Buy 13226 13233 13176 6 625,94 291 314,19 12,88
Day 5 31.01.2018 Dax Buy 13217 13230 13187 26 474,06 317 788,26 23,14
Day 5 01.02.2018 Dax Sell 13291 13265 13327 10 834,58 328 622,84 27,34
Day 6 02.02.2018 Dax Buy 12797 12825 12772 72 314,97 400 937,81 55,36

Using ProRealTime

As I wrote yesterday, I’m using IG.com to trade CFDs. They got a tool called ProRealTime that I started to use yesterday. It’s a great tool with many more indicators and tools, and best of all, you get a good look at your stats. Here is my stats so far on ProRealTime in NOK (1 USD = 7.65 NOK – click on the images to get a larger view):

As you can see from the image above, I got 8 winning trades and 1 losing trade. I tried to buy the dip on Dax but managed to enter a bit too early. The Dax index fell quite rapidly after I initiated this trade and I wanted to keep it open as long as possible as I knew a rebound would happen. But I was not comfortable enough to sit it through so I closed it. Still feeling certain that the price would rebound I entered a buy position yet again at what I thought would be the lowest low. And thankfully, that worked and it rebounded above my initial entry point for the first trade. To ensure that I got the profits I wanted, I did a third trade buying Dax when RSI showed a trend reversal (rose above 50). I closed the trades once I was happy with the profits and because I became nervous that the price would turn back down. Then I initiated the last trade of the day going long on Dax yet again.

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Here is the total overview of my trades today:

I would again like to highlight that trading CFD is very risky, and I’m still significantly down in total these last 3 years.

My trading rules

  1. Only risk max 2% of my bank roll per trade.
  2. Have 0 active positions during the night (first of all, I lose sleep, second; you are charged an interest fee for leaving a leveraged product overnight.)
  3. Always trade on last month’s trend including the previous day(s). If they do not correlate, I will not trade.
  4. If one position is lost, I’ll double the amount (martingale) and do a second trade. I’ll only stop doubling after 3 consecutive losses.
  5. Do not think about lost trade opportunities.
  6. Markets to trade: Dax & Dow (minimum spread).
  7. Stay updated on economic releases prior to entering a trade.
  8. Do not have emotional ties to the money. I like to call them “points”.
  9. Only enter a position when an asset is overbought or oversold shown by both RSI & Stoch at the same time.
  10. Always write down your trades and elaborate what went right or wrong.

What is the meaning of this?

Why I’m I writing all these posts? My main goal is to find a working strategy trading CFDs and be able to mentor Hacked.com members and do live sessions together. However, I would like to keep going for at least one month until I feel comfortable that the strategy I have, actually works. I would rather lose my own money, than lose any of yours.

I wish you all a great weekend. We are going to visit our family this weekend and have a nice time.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.2 stars on average, based on 53 rated postsFounder of Hacked.com and CryptoCoinsNews




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Who Moved My Cheese?

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It’s been a while since I wrote a post. I’ve been busy with creating CCN.com and migrate CryptoCoinsNews.com over to the new domain with a fresh design. And It’s been Christmas with daily family dinners. I decided to quit my job at Wilhelmsen.com as a Digital Trainee. I’ve worked there for a year now, and with the growth of CCN and Hacked.com I had to take a choice. I want to make CCN and Hacked to one of the strongest crypto sources and our team is rapidly expanding. We are now more than eight full time employees and more than 20+ as part timers.

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I also bought hvy.com in December, and I want to develop MoneyMakers.com into something more during the coming year. We are building a small media empire with a very decentralized structure. I love the team, and I especially love our dedicated readers and members.

I started 2017 by posting the following:

  1. My own longterm goals, what are yours?
  2. Join me to my first goal of $1 000 000
  3. My First Investment Towards $1 000 000

What is a bit ironic, is that I reached my “longterm” goal last year. It should have taken at least ten years, but I managed it in one. I managed it because of a few things:

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  1. Dedication
  2. Team work
  3. Luck

Who would have thought that the crypto scene would blow up like it did last year? It was insane, and we still keep setting records.

Then to a few “lost activities” on hacked.com. The 33% club lost some steam this fall, purely due to my priorities at that time. I’ve still been investing, and I now have approx. 1 million USD in different assets (not cryptos). I will continue the 33% club from February and onwards, and I want you all to join. I will do a new post later in January with a better setup.

Then to my “Robot” affair. First weeks I made $5000, but then things started to go terribly wrong. I had multiple issues with using robots on MetaTrader 5 (I used Roboforex as my trading platform). One of the main issues I found was that the robots did well on certain days, but then when they made the wrong moves, I lost twice of what they originally made. And sometimes, my VPS went down and the orders were stuck until I manually exited them. Mostly with a huge loss. I do not think there’s any good robot out there where you can just leave your money and “forget them”. I’ve decided to focus more on investing my money in secure assets, stocks, indexes, and bonds. I’m still looking for the golden opportunity, and once I find it, I’ll share it with all the members on hacked.com.

Who Moved My Cheese?

I read a short book here the other day called Who Moved My Cheese? and it’s really worth reading. It’s stupid simple, but it’s so true. Basically it says that people who are stuck in the same patterns will end up depressed and “broke”. Your “cheese” or “money” will always be fluctuating, you have to chase it to new grounds. You might think that you can work for your employer until you die, but that will most likely be a terrible mistake. To believe that what you have now will be lasting forever. Successful people manage to change quickly, spot new opportunities, and move forward with their lives. I personally have experienced being stuck for a while, but now I feel free and I want to keep chasing the cheese in new arenas or mazes. Risk and failures are a part of your learning curve. Same can be applied in so many aspects of my and your lives. I recommend reading that book.

After I’m done 31st January at Wilhelmsen (my regular 9-5 job) I’ll focus more on Hacked.com and its community, and I’ll definitely write more and share my thoughts with you.

Thank you for a great 2017, now let’s make sure 2018 becomes even better for all of us.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Searching for the Meaning of Life in Dubai

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Last week I traveled to Dubai with a group of people in Wilhelmsen, where I work as a Digital Trainee, for our third module in Design Thinking with Pracademy. We are a group of 24 people which Wilhelmsen considers to be Leadership Potentials. We are fortunate to be a part of this year’s company program, and we have all learned so much about ourselves. In this post, I will try to communicate what we learned during last week’s module. Be aware that this is a four months program, and it’s hard to get the feeling of it by just reading about it. But I hope I can share some of the knowledge that I acquired and get you more interested in improving your own life.

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Find your passion and go all in!

Most motivators and teachers say that you need to find your passion, make work a hobby that you enjoy every single day. I have even caught myself saying that over and over again (on Hacked). However, as I learned during the sessions in Dubai, more than 80% of us do not know what their passion is. I started to wonder if I knew what my passion is. And I’m still insecure about that. I do know that I want to contribute to the world, I want to help and serve people. I want to create things that I know other people will love; I want to leave a footprint on this earth.

I often have this mind experiment where I picture myself as 80 years old with bad health in my nursing home. Do I think that I managed to get the most out of life? Am I satisfied with all the things I achieved? Or do I have regrets and feel remorseful? The goal for every person on this earth is to be satisfied with your life when you’re near the end. I guess most people aren’t in reality. And that’s a big shame. Some people might regret that they worked too much, had too little fun, too few good experiences with their loved ones, too few memorable memories.

I pray that I will be happy with my life and what I accomplished.

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How to find your passion

If you do not know what your true passion is, there’s still hope for you. You can spend years trying to find your ultimate passion. Think of what makes you happy, what you enjoy or care for. My strong passion for creating things started in my childhood. I always drew new inventions on a piece of paper and started small kid businesses. I played music; I was a drummer in a nu-metal band, I started to sing and rap and create songs. I painted and used my creative skills to visualize my thoughts. I traveled during holidays and experienced new cultures, new food. Oh, I love good food. I love cooking a great meal for family and friends.

I could probably achieved anything that I had/have passion for. I could have been a:

  • Cook
  • Artist
  • Painter
  • Drummer
  • Entrepreneur

I chose to become an entrepreneur mostly due to financial possibilities. As being financially independent was and is very high on my priority list. But that does not mean that I wouldn’t have a meaningful life being an artist with less money on my hands.

Economist Angus Deaton and psychologist Daniel Kahneman researched happiness and money in 2009 where the focus was on US standards, and it’s population:

So, where does the $75,000 come into play? Researchers found that lower income did not cause sadness itself but made people feel more ground down by the problems they already had. The study found, for example, that among divorced people, about 51% who made less than $1,000 a month reported feeling sad or stressed the previous day, while only 24% of those earning more than $3,000 a month reported similar feelings. Among people with asthma, 41% of low earners reported feeling unhappy, compared with about 22% of the wealthier group. Having money clearly takes the sting out of adversities.

At $75,000, that effect disappears. For people who earn that much or more, individual temperament and life circumstances have much more sway over their lightness of heart than money. The study doesn’t say why $75,000 is the benchmark, but “it does seem to me a plausible number at which people would think money is not an issue,” says Deaton. At that level, people probably have enough expendable cash to do things that make them feel good, like going out with friends. (The federal poverty level for a family of four, by the way, is $22,050.)

So if you live in the US, a goal for financial freedom could be $75 000 or $100 000 as income per year. If you make more than that, you won’t necessarily become happier just because of the money.

However, if you make too much money and you are in an in-group where your peers make much less than you do, you can be in a situation where jealousy and envy will affect your life. And that is not a good feeling at all. I believe that the people in the middle of the scale live the happiest lives. There have been numerous cases where people that won in the lotteries have ended their lives due to envy and jealousy from their friends and family. Where they thought winning a lot of money would make them happier, while it only magnified their problems.

Empathy

In Design Thinking, empathy is a crucial part of the process. The ability to feel compassion for other human beings. To understand their problems, feelings, and emotions and to share their pain, grief, happiness or sadness. I know for a fact that I could be much more empathic and that is something I will improve. See the video below that shows what empathy is:

We saw this video in Dubai, which almost made me cry (we were in a particular mood..):

There’s so much going on in that video. Mo Cheeks felt empathy with the girl singing the national anthem, and he could feel compassion since he had a daughter at that age.

Things change when you get a child, for me that has a daughter who is seven months, I can relate to the video above. You might not.

What characterizes a great leader?

We did a session where everyone in the room in Dubai explained what a great leader is for them. The list included:

  • Good listener
  • Empathic
  • Understanding
  • Good motivator
  • + more

Most of the points we as leadership potentials defined as a great leader had nothing to do with “IQ.” Most of them had everything to do with “EQ,” emotional intelligence. It is mindblowing that we do not learn more about emotional intelligence during school, and that all businesses focus on “IQ” when hiring, not “EQ.” I believe that is skewed and is important to reflect upon.

Mindfulness

We also learned how to be more mindful. They encouraged us to use 30 minutes to sit quietly, close our eyes, focusing on the now. Breathing slowly and try to get as calm as possible. There’s scientific research on how mindfulness can help you become more happier, healthier and more successful:

And then one of the many guides on mindfulness:

Communication

We did a session where we were paired up to use mindfulness to listen and repeat. A was given 6 minutes to talk about a challenge at work, B was given 3 minutes to repeat what he/she heard, A was then given 2 minutes to clarify what B might have misinterpreted, B was then finally given 2 minutes to repeat what A clarified. This was a session that made me realize how easy it is to misinterpret. This can be used in every aspect of your life. It is so easy to misunderstand what a person is saying or meaning, so try to ask a question after a discussion: “Did I understand you right, that you want…” or “Could you please clarify what you meant by…”.

Writing

A professor of culture and psychology from South Korea gave us a session on writing. How writing in a notebook can help you learn better and understand what was communicated. From now on, I’ll always bring a notebook in meetings and write with my hand. Then I’ll add the written information to my computer later on.

Emotions

We often say: “I am angry.” That is a big mistake. We are not angry, but we do feel anger. So whenever you “are angry, sad, or irritated,” say in your head that you are “feeling angry, because..” and you will be able to control your emotions in a much more sufficient manner. Do not let the feeling itself take over who you are. You are not your feelings, you simply feel them and they will pass.

And Finally, you have the Siberian Railroad: SBNRR: Stop, Breathe, Notice, React, Respond.

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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