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Winter Is Upon Us

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Acorn gathering season was cut short, let’s hope you took some profits and got to high ground before the deluge. Even the big Chinese exchanges are ceasing operations. The madness has sent the Bitcoin price running away from $4,000, and in the melee a lot of otherwise solid valuations are taking a beating. The fundamental flaw in how all cryptocurrencies are valued – the amount of bitcoins and thus the amount of fiat – is revealed when the price begins to plummet. People still have faith in all those tokens, after all, they’re just losing value as the market goes.

So what’s the move? If you haven’t sold already, there’s not a lot of recent room left to do it. If it’s something you think you might do, we urge you to make that move sooner than later. Everyone seems to think there will be buying opportunities beneath $3,000 coming up, so re-entry should be possible – and will likely be profitable. Every great dip and depression Bitcoin is followed by an upheaval of massive proportions, we’re not seeing much to tell us this one will be any different.

Spoke to a Hacked subscriber who sold at a profit, but probably late to the profit party. He was upset about some losses. I informed him that if he had losses, they were of the theoretical variety – you don’t have losses before you actually lose the tokens. Unless we’re talking about margin trading, a whole different form of savagery which had its own carnage over the past many days.

The market will have to shake people out now and then. The only players left from China will be those who’ve got the courage left to defy the government. The government itself will find some form of blockchain technology that it blesses and allows to monopolize, and other Asian-born and oriented financial technologies will have to find a way to work around that. NEO has a chance to be one of them, as does Walton. Or both. And more. There’s a lot of room for innovation yet. The Chinese government is probably mostly mad that it has missed out on the opportunity. If anyone was in a position to speculate on the moves of the market, they would have been working in the Peoples Bank of China. Perhaps the initial news, but the market reaction and the subsequent slowness to clarify, that was all very telling in the actions of the Chinese government.

The author can tell you that he will be acquiring more of everything in this down market.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsP. H. Madore has covered the cryptocurrency beat over the course of hundreds of articles for Hacked's sister site, CryptoCoinsNews, as well as some of her competitors. He is a major contributing developer to the Woodcoin project, and has made technical contributions on a number of other cryptocurrency projects. In spare time, he recently began a more personalized, weekly newsletter at http://ico.phm.link




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4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. derick

    September 14, 2017 at 11:49 pm

    selling now? this would be very hard thing for me to do.. too much loss already.. i feel like i should just loss everything the better..

    • Inverstor Clouseau

      September 15, 2017 at 2:52 pm

      Don’t it’s too late, and the moment as you sell the market will go straight up. Keep in mind we’ve seen this incredible price action in the past month. consider the medium term, you’ll be fine.

  2. sickettyboy71

    September 15, 2017 at 12:02 am

    Buy the lows. That’s the rule.

  3. Manymoney

    September 15, 2017 at 4:06 am

    Neo or Walton coin will not be a success in China, since they are pvt entitities. China will ask onchain to accept remibi.

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Bitcoin

If Bitcoin ETF Doesn’t Happen by February, How Will it Affect the Market?

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The Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has already become the catalyst of the next big rally of the cryptocurrency to the minds of many investors.

Realistically, however, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could easily deem the cryptocurrency market unready of handling a large-scale investment vehicle like an ETF based on the wild volatility in the prices of major cryptocurrencies over the past year and the lack of surveillance in smaller markets.

Jake Chervinsky, a government enforcement defense and securities litigation attorney at Kobre & Kim, has said that while the probability of the approval of a Bitcoin ETF could increase over time, as of now, there only exists a 10 percent chance for the ETF to be approved.

He said:

“Here’s my prediction, with a big disclaimer. This is not in any way meant as advice. Don’t even think about trading on this. I have no idea how the ETF decision will impact the markets anyway. If the deadline were today, I’d give the ETF a 10% chance of approval. My prediction is based largely on the manipulation issue. I think the chance of ETF approval will go up over time as market structure continues to develop & more surveillance-sharing agreements are entered.”

So How Can a Bitcoin ETF Rejection Affect the Market?

Historically, the cryptocurrency market has generally not been affected by a certain event or a catalyst during both bear and bull markets.

In the bull market, regardless of negative events and news coverage, due to an overwhelming demand for crypto, the prices of cryptocurrencies tend to increase. In a bear market, as seen in the case of Nasdaq, Fidelity, and NYSE, positive announcements have minimal impact on the prices of digital assets.

The potential effect on the approval of a Bitcoin ETF on the cryptocurrency market remains unclear, and no one really knows. There have been several reports claiming that if 10 percent of investors in the stock market invest in the Bitcoin ETF, the Bitcoin price would surge to a certain amount.

But, such a vague prediction is no different than a startup thinking “China has 1.3 billion people, 10 percent of that is 130 million, so we can at least secure 130 million customers.” Some startups actually received investment from venture capital firms with this theoretical strategy and lost out in the Chinese market.

Such “if” predictions occur quite frequently in crypto. If 10 percent of the offshore banking sector invests in Bitcoin, the dominant crypotcurrency could be worth $3 trillion. If 10 percent of gold investors invest in Bitcoin, the asset could be worth $700 billion. But these numbers are merely vague estimates and in no way represent real numbers.

The rejection of an ETF approval could affect the market if the price of Bitcoin has been increasing in anticipation of the announcement.

The Case of Winklevoss ETF in July

On July 26, when the highly anticipated Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF was rejected by the U.S. SEC, the price of Bitcoin did not experience a substantial move on a weekly basis. It dropped from $8,200 to $8,000 but recovered to $8,200 the very next day.

The price of BTC could begin to increase as the February deadline of the VanEck ETF comes closer, but the market will likely not lose out more than the value it added in anticipation of the ETF, unless the price of Bitcoin increases solely due to the ETF approval.

Hence, whether the ETF is approved or not, an immediate impact on the price of Bitcoin should not be expected, especially as the bear market of 2018 extends to next year.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.1 stars on average, based on 5 rated postsJoseph Young is a finance and tech journalist based in Hong Kong. He has worked with leading media and news agencies in the technology and finance industries, offering exclusive content, interviews, insights and analysis of cryptocurrencies, innovative and futuristic technologies.




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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Life Expectancy: Lindy Effect Suggests BTC Is More Difficult to Kill Than Ever Before

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The crypto bear market is showing little signs of letting up. On Tuesday, a fresh wave of selling engulfed bitcoin and altcoins, dragging the market toward fresh yearly lows and thrusting Tether (USDT) in to the top-five by market cap. Against this backdrop, it’s easy to forget that cryptocurrencies like bitcoin have become so resilient to death that no amount of fear, uncertainty and doubt can override the phenomenon currently underway.

Market Update

The market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies reached a low of $107.3 billion on Tuesday, as bearish forces continued to push prices lower. Last week, the market bottomed around $103 billion, marking a new 15-month low. The way prices are going today, new lows are likely in the short run.

Losses among the majors ranged from 2% to 8%, with bitcoin reaching the lower end of $3,300. The leading digital currency is quickly approaching a critical test of the $2,800-$3,200 support following a series of lower lows and lower highs.

The widespread selloff has allowed Tether to reclaim its stablecoin status. USDT was last valued at $1.01, where it was trading slightly higher than its dollar-peg would suggest. Tether is now a $1.9 billion market, ahead of bitcoin cash, EOS and Litecoin.

Bitcoin Life Expectancy

The crypto market cap is by no means a perfect measure of overall health but provides a fairly accurate snapshot of where digital assets are trending. The extent to which bitcoin dominates the overall market capitalization is also telling. As of Tuesday, the leading digital currency represented 55% of the total market and has risen steadily amid the latest correction.

Bitcoin continues to exert a strong gravitational pull on the rest of the market, which analysts say is a reflection of the nascent state of digital currencies as a whole. During the height of the bull rally in January, bitcoin’s share of the total market fell to around 32%. This broad “decoupling” of bitcoin and other virtual currencies was considered a sign of market maturation. Eleven months later, talk of “market maturation” has all but dissipated as investors continue to gauge just how far prices will fall.

Media and traditional financiers have framed the recent price collapse as crypto’s biggest existential crisis. To them, there is no sign of a bottom until prices reach zero.

This may be the case for a myriad of the 2,000+ cryptocurrencies in circulation but does not represent the fate of projects that have developed real products. In the case of bitcoin, historical precedent suggests that a fall to zero simply isn’t in the cards. Bitcoin has collapsed longer and harder in the past, only to re-emerge stronger and more resilient than ever before. Its chance of survival continues to grow each time it overcomes attack, hard forks and FUD. This feeds directly into the Lindy Effect, which states that the remaining life expectancy of any system grows for every additional period of survival.

Bitcoin and other leading cryptocurrencies are a monetary phenomenon that have generated waves of adoption in circles that matter most: banks, businesses, global payment providers. And although people have tried to parse out “bitcoin” from “blockchain,” the value of cryptocurrency technology has rendered this distinction more difficult to analyze in a practical sense (as the CEO of Lighting Labs put it, we are entering a “bitcoin, not blockchain” world).

For the past decade, bitcoin has run on almost zero financial loss on the chain itself, making it the most reliable financial network in the world. Bitcoin is so decentralized, in fact, that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially declared that it cannot be considered a security. As investors will soon find out, autonomous networks that are sufficiently decentralized and with no central authority are difficult to kill.

This is by no means a “forecast” of where things go from here. Clearly, crypto is in a profound bear market that will yield additional pain and destruction for a large share of existing blockchains. But don’t let anyone fool you into believing that this this spells the end of bitcoin. It’s only the beginning.

We’ll leave you with the following quote from Nassim Nicholas Taleb to consider:

“… Bitcoin is an excellent idea. It fulfills the needs of the complex system, not because it is a cryptocurrency, but precisely because it has no owner, no authority that can decide on its fate. It is owned by the crowd, its users. And it has now a track record of several years, enough for it to be an animal in its own right.”

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 694 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Crypto Update: New Lows in Sight Again as Slide Continues

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The cryptocurrency segment continues to be under heavy selling pressure following the weekend rally attempt, and although all of the majors are still above last week’s lows, the strong short-term downtrend remains dominant. The long-term picture is overwhelmingly bearish as well, and there are coins showing meaningful relative strength, so sellers are clearly still clearly in control of the market, and the lack of leadership is still apparent.

With that in mind, traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions even in the slightly stronger coins, and odds still favor the continuation of the bear market, with new lows likely in the coming days. That said, a successful test or a failed breakdown could trigger a larger scale correction, with the broader picture still being deeply oversold and with investor sentiment still being very negative. For now, there is no sign of an imminent rally, with all eyes on the $3000 in Bitcoin.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin has been drifting lower ever since touching the $3600 level during the weekend, and the now the most valuable coin is close to its prior bear market low, pushing the total value of the market back below $110 billion. Today’s selloff took the coin below $3400, and a test of the next long-term support zone near $3000 is now likely in the coming days.

At least a move above $3600 would be needed for a meaningful improvement in the coin’s technical setup, but for now, sellers remain in control on both time-frames and our trend model is on clear sell signals both short- and long-term, with further strong resistance ahead in the $4000-$4050 zone.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is also close to last week’s bear market low and the coin is clearly stuck in a steep short-term downtrend with no sign of relative strength or bullish momentum since the failed weekend rally. The coin is also trading below the strong $95-$100 support/resistance zone, and with support just being found between $73 and $75, a new low is likely in the coming days.

Traders and investors should still stay away from entering new positions here, with further strong resistance zones ahead near $120 and $130.

Litecoin and Ripple on the Verge of Breaking Down

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The major altcoins are all in week technical setups, and even Ripple, which is in a slightly better long-term position, is looking bearish from a short-term perspective. The second largest coin is trading below the $0.30 level, and a test of the next zone near $0.28 seems imminent.

The prior bear market low near $0.26 could also be in danger in the coming period, and traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions here, with resistance levels above $0.30 ahead at $0.32, $0.3550, and $0.3750.

Litecoin/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is very close to breaking down below the $23 support zone today, and the coin is showing relative weakness compared to the other major, as it was the case ever since last week’s bearish shift. Our trend model remains on sell signals on both time-frames, and a new low seem very likely in the coming days, so traders shouldn’t enter new positions here despite the deeply oversold long-term momentum readings. The next major support zone is found between $20 mad $20.50 with strong resistance ahead near $26 and between $30 and $30.50.

Stellar/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Since the key breakdown in Stellar, the coin remained relatively weak, and the strong selling pressure is still apparent in its market. The recent rally attempt failed to recapture even the $0.125 resistance, and now a dip below $0.11 and a test of the $0.10 level seems likely in the coming weeks. Further strong resistance is ahead just below $0.14 and traders and investors should still not enter new positions here.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 413 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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