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Why Investors Should Pay Attention to Gnosis

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Ever since I started learning about the blockchain industry, I’ve been constantly astounded at the various use cases being applied to it. One such use case is with Gnosis, a prediction market company with high aspirations.

Gnosis Prediction Market

A prediction market is basically a mechanism for turning user predictions into an aggregate forecast of future events. The idea is that based on the “wisdom of crowds” we can use information from the collective to be smarter and more accurate than any information from any one individual.

And the prediction markets create incentive for people to be correct about their predictions. This allows for users to bet on certain events occurring. The higher a likelihood of an event occurring, the greater that events’ “token worth” would be. And as something becomes more or less likely, the price of the token increases or decreases.

In a prediction market, the array of possibilities are split so that each of them has an assigned probability, and they all add up to 100%. Therefore, as an event becomes more and more certain, it rises in price. This would create a profitable opportunity for anyone who bets on a low probability event in the case it ends up being correct.

The Mechanics of the Market

There are a few implications of this market set up. First, efficient markets matter. If news is well-known and distributed equally to everyone, new info that creates certainty regarding a prediction will zero out all of the non-winning options. If not, it is possible that someone will buy a token thinking it’s a longshot or a bargain, when it is really, truly disqualified.

Additionally, there are two ways to make money trading on the market. You can take profit along the way by purchasing a token and later selling it once the probability of said event has gone up, or you can wait until receiving a payout for being correct.

GNO tokens are tradeable on the open market and have monetary value, but are not to be confused with Olympia tokens. These tokens are used inside the app to make bets. GNO only represents the payout for making the right choice with your Olympia tokens.

Gnosis tokens (GNO) are ERC20 tokens, with 10 million created and sold during ICO. No new tokens have been created since. The current architecture supports the Gnosis prediction market, but more prediction market applications will eventually be feasible. Some other features that are relevant to investors are the multi-sig wallet and robust developer tools that will help to create a sustained community around it.

The Buying Opportunity

GNO is currently trading around $12.66 USD, or 0.00317 BTC, and is ranked 191 in terms of market capitalization. The recent trend has been gradually upward, with the weak BTC continuing to depreciate against it. The coin is available on Bittrex, Poloniex, and Kraken, and could serve as a great short-term bet based on its strength versus Bitcoin. Whether you want to be involved in it long-term depends upon your belief in the prediction market use case and its ability to maintain strength against BTC.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Altcoins

EOS Price Analysis: EOS is Set Up for Bigger Gains, Following Recent Technical Development

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  • EOS has jumped around 45% between the sessions of 15th – 17th December. 
  • Bulls shrug off all negative related news flow that has surrounded EOS in recent weeks.

The EOS/USD bulls are on a serious mission to recovery. Unlike several of its peers, a slowdown in momentum has not been seen with the EOS price. More importantly, a breakout has been observed from a range-block, of which EOS/USD was confine within. This had been the case since the 7th December, managing to escape however on 17th and capitalize further on that.

EOS Shakes off Negative Commentary

Over the past few weeks, there have been several negative bits of news flow. Recently, as covered by Hacked in a prior article, the Cardano founder, Charles Hoskinson, had a fair few words to say about EOS. He had noted that action from regulators was potentially right around the corner for EOS. Hoskinson had specifically raised concerns about the EOS token sale.

Elsewhere, it was recently covered by Chinese press that EOS decentralized apps (DApps) have been victim to hacks totaling around $1 million since July. The report cited data which was collected by PeckShield, who are a blockchain security organization. This suggests that the DApps on EOS have been hit by at least 27 breaches from July up to late November. This is an amount of 400,000 EOS, equivalent to 8 million yuan, at the time of the published report.

Lastly, at the back-end of last month, there was some FUD surrounding the CTO of Block.one, Daniel Larimer. The community and social media space were concerned about Larimer working on new projects. This prompted worries that he may be leaving EOS, keeping in mind the EOS mainnet hadn’t even reached a year.

EOS has pretty much shrugged much of this FUD off, as seen with this latest rally. It has far outperformed its peers with the big gains collected over the past two sessions.

Technical Review EOS/USD

EOS/USD daily chart

EOS/USD had a decent extension to the upside after breaching the confinements of the detailed range-block.  The bulls initially jumped a chunky 45% over the period of 15th to the 17th December. However, into the session on Tuesday, the price has run into some minor resistance, seen at the 4th December high area. This can be noted within $2.60 territory.

The pullback being observed at the time of writing isn’t too much of a surprise, given the burst higher in such a short time frame. Profit-taking is only natural in this case. It is a minor retreat ahead of further potential moves north. Eyes will be on the breached range-block for support, the top of that seen at $2.18.

Should the bulls gather enough momentum for a push above the minor near-term resistance seen, then a fast 60% move could be seen. This would take EOS/USD back towards $4.40, where another minor supply zone is observed. Further north, a reclaim of the pre-November fall levels, i.e., $6 territory, is the next major target.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 88 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies Still Recovering Strong After Monday Rally; BitMEX Sees 24/7 Trading as the Future

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Cryptocurrency prices maintained their firm uptrend on Tuesday, a sign that the latest rally attempt has further room to grow. Rising volumes and steady gains in the last hour of trading point to further momentum up ahead.

Market Update

The cryptocurrency market capitalization is currently valued at $115.4 billion, according to latest available data. In doing so, it surpassed Monday’s peak and put crypto values on track for a bigger short-term recovery. Asset values bottomed near $100 billion on Saturday, the lowest in 16 months.

Trading volumes have skyrocketed in the last 24 hours, as waves of buying flooded the market. Turnover is up 47% since Monday, with the top-ten exchanges reporting a volume increase of 43% to 102%. The top-four exchanges – Binance, OKEx, Huobi and DigiFinex – each processed more than $500 million in trades.

In terms of individual currency, bitcoin was up 1.4% in the last hour to trade at $3,567. The leading digital currency rose double-digits on Monday, the anniversary of its last record high, which served as a catalyst for the broader market.

XRP gained 1.7% to $0.3346. In doing so, it extended its 24-hour advance to 10.4%.

Ethereum is up 1.5% on the hour to trade at $95.45. EOS rose another 2.9% to $2.52 and has now gained 17.4% over the past 24 hours.

With the exception of Tether (USDT), a dollar-backed stablecoin, all cryptocurrencies in the top-25 by market cap had reported gains Tuesday. USDT was stable around $1.01.

The latest recovery attempt looks convincing relative to price action in recent weeks. However, the bulls aren’t out of the woods yet. Depressed market sentiment could trigger fresh waves of profit-taking before the week is over.

BitMEX and the Future of Trading

Crypto derivatives platform BitMEX believes cryptocurrencies have set a precedent for how other markets will behave in the future. In a recent episode of the Unchained podcast with Laura Shin, BitMEX CEO and co-founder Arthur Hayes said he expects 24/7 markets will become the new norm in the future.

At the same time, Hayes indicated that the “jury is still out” on whether cryptocurrencies are a new asset class or just a “blend” of financial instruments. At the very least, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies could become a “new way of raising capital and sending value around the world.”

BitMEX has been at the center of the bitcoin selling spree of the last six weeks. As bitcoin printed successive lows, volumes on the exchange skyrocketed. At its highest point, BitMEX was processing more than a third of bitcoin’s daily trade volumes on virtual currency exchanges. Clearly traders were shorting BTC.

According to CCN, BitMEX processed nearly $1 trillion in volume over the past year.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 704 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Ripple and Litecoin Lead Another Rally Attempt

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The last 48 hours saw a nice bounce in the cryptocurrency segment, which led to improvements in the short-term technical setup of some of the most oversold coins. While the rally, which is being spearheaded by Litecoin and Ripple, hasn’t changed the still overwhelmingly bearish long-term picture, it could be the start of a larger scale counter-trend move. We will take a closer look at the broader picture in our long-term cryptocurrency analysis, which will be released tomorrow.

The deeply oversold long-term momentum readings and the horrible sentiment in the segment could fuel a more sustained move, but until we have confirmation that the short-term trend change in the key coins, traders and investors should remain defensive even towards the relatively stronger coins.

The strongest coins should form a pattern of higher highs and higher lows before entering new positions, and for now, our trend model only shows neutral short-term readings even in the case of the leaders, and most of the coins are still on sell signals on both time-frames.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin hit marginal new bear market lows before bouncing higher yesterday, and although the coin got close to the $3600 level, it remains in a bearish technical setup, and our trend model is still on sell signals on both time-frames.

That said, a move above primary resistance could set up a failed breakdown pattern, which could trigger a larger scale correction, but for now, traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions here. Further strong resistance is ahead between $4000 and $4050, while support is found near $3250 and $3000.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum also remains on sell signals on both time-frames despite the rally attempt, as it continues to be stuck below the key $95-$100 resistance zone. The coin is still deeply oversold from a long-term standpoint, but until a confirmed short-term trend change, odds still favor new lows in the coming weeks, and traders should stay away from Ethereum here. Further strong resistance is ahead near $120 and $120, while the next major support zone is found between $73 and $75.

Bullish Leadership Finally Forming Among Altcoins?

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin spiked as high as the $30-$30.50 support/resistance zone on Monday after breaking out above the $26 resistance level and it also broke the steep short-term downtrend line. Should the coin form a higher swing while remaining above $26, a short-term trend change would be confirmed, but for now, given the clearly bearish long-term picture, traders should wait before entering the coin’s market. Below $26, key support is found between $23 and $23.50 while the next major resistance level is ahead at $34.50.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple is on a similar technical position to Litecoin, as although the sharp bounce took the coin above both the $0.30 and $0.32 resistance levels after hitting marginal new lows, a short-term trend change is not yet confirmed.

The coin needs to form a higher swing low and stay durably above $0.32 for an upgrade to buy in our trend model, and for now the long-term sell signal remains clearly in place, with the next major resistance zone is found near $0.3550.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On a negative note, only a few coins show clear technical improvements thanks to the rally attempt, and the likes of Monero, DASH, Stellar, NEO, and ETC only registered weak bounces and even in the case of the surging EOS and IOTA, the gains were only enough to regain a fraction of the recent losses.

So, while a short-term trend change could be ahead after the rout, traders should remain cautious until a clear bullish leadership is established in the segment.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 420 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

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