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Market Overview

What’s Behind the Cryptosurge

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If you’re reading this you’re probably aware of the unimaginable gains that have been seen across the crypto market this year. Last night we saw a new and very important milestone that has provoked some interesting commentary.

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The total value of all digital assets as listed on coinmarketcap.com has surpassed $500 Billion for the first time. To think, this number has grown from just $14.5 Billion one year ago today making for an unbelievable percentage growth of 3448%.

These numbers spark a lot of questions. Ethereum’s founder and one of the most notable figures in the crypto-space Vitalik Buterin posted a lot of these questions on his twitter feed this morning.

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Mostly, Vitalik wants to know if this valuation is justified and more importantly how are we changing the world for the better?

What cryptotraders like myself want to know is how long will this current surge last and what is likely to drive the market going forward.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

Fed Day!!

Insane Inflation hits UK

Urgent Crypto Updates

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of December 13th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

Though I realize that many of you are here for crypto, there are some huge things happening in the traditional markets that we need to get out of the way first. At the end of the day, I’m a markets man and as such cannot ignore Fed Day.

This evening, the US Federal Reserve Bank who has been the biggest driver of market prices over the last decade will raise their interest rate from 1.25% to 1.5%. In Forex markets this type of move is usually a really big deal as we can see many large players moving their funds into Dollars in order to take advantage of the bigger rate.

However, as the market has already been certain that this move will come over the past month the increase of 0.25% is already priced into the markets. What investors really want to know is how much will they increase rates going forward?

Even though the Fed has boldly lied to us about how fast they will be raising the rates many times in the last few years, somehow what they say still holds meaning and so we must listen.

Overall, the Fed is on an extremely gradual pace to make money more expensive. US Dollars have been cheap and easy since the financial crisis of 2008, a policy that many say is causing some bubbles in the stock markets and imho is a major contributing factor to the current boom in cryptocurrencies.

This graph shows the expectations of 16 Fed members over the next few years. Each one places one dot for each year telling us where they think rates will be at that time. As we can see, even the most aggressive member is still expecting the rates to remain below 4% by 2020. So money is likely to remain extremely cheap.

Hyperinflation Is Happening Already

All this cheap money is extremely unsettling and even dangerous, for some regions more than others. Especially when there is an external event that suddenly changes the picture.

For example, a political crisis in Zimbabwe or Venezuela. But it’s not just the third world anymore. Yesterday the Bank of England announced a shocking inflation report showing that prices are up 3.1% in the last year.

Particularly concerning is the price of specific goods. Fish is up 15%, olive oil 9.3% and butter is up 23% over the past year.

Meanwhile, salaries in the UK have not gone up nearly enough to cover these higher prices. Today the UK will release their Average Earnings Report, which analysts are forecasting has risen just 2.5%.

Forex traders will react directly to the data as it comes out in real time. Though crypto-investors will not be reacting in such a methodical way, they are being affected by the overall trend and certainly feel their pockets getting pinched by the flawed system that increasingly favors the ultra-wealthy at the expense of Mr. Joe Public.

What’s next on this CRYPTO Surge?

It’s been a powerful run in the crypto market, especially over the last few weeks. Traders seem to be taking turns with the different top cryptos buying up one at a time, in many cases doubling or tripling the value within a 48 hour window.

It started with Ether Classic, then Dash, then IOTA, then Litecoin, and last night we saw Ripple nearly double in 12 hours.

Here’s a few important updates that may drive prices going forward…

Internet giant eBay is now considering to add bitcoin!! = Huge news if they do it!!

UBS and several others using Ethereum for MiFID compliance. MiFID 2 is a huge deal right now in the financial world and many large banks have announced a pilot to start storing data on the Ethereum Blockchain.

Emergency Crypto Meeting in South Korea. South Korea is by far the largest buyer of cryptocurrencies. Updates about what will happen in this meeting on Friday are sure to move the markets.

Have an awesome day ahead!!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. mvppvm_07

    December 13, 2017 at 3:33 pm

    “At the end of the day, I’m a markets man”, you say. Mati. May I pick your brain then (and hopefully the knowledgeable insights of others who are market people)?

    December: Christmas, New Year, holidays, end of quarter, end of year.

    December third week: options settle (right?).

    To what degree, at the moment of this significant increase in money into crypto does an end of quarter, end of year, options settling component correlate from these drivers in legacy markets to crypto?

    I am studying to understand the different modeling that exists in the “pink sheet world” of crypto. What legacy bias does the new money from sophisticated institutional buyers bring to our brave, audacious and speculative investments?

    I’d love to see what folks who are market people see with these attempted correlations.

    Thanks.

  2. dbenn8

    December 14, 2017 at 9:38 am

    Also, it looks like South Korea is banning a lot of Crypto activity (the virtual bank accounts that are some sort of pre-req to getting fiat into and out of the crypto markets?). How big an impact on the current surge do we expect this to have?

    • mvppvm_07

      December 14, 2017 at 2:35 pm

      Because crypto is international, and essentially border-less, those whose interest is beyond hobby investing will find “the edges”, accounts in locales that give them the opportunity to move their investments. The assets/coins/tokens/currencies/commodities (the list is getting big, isn’t it?) that can accommodate cross-border transactions anonymously at lightning speed will benefit, starting this week. XRP one example already?

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Market Overview

Crypto Proxy Stocks Follow Market Lower on ‘Bloody Tuesday’

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“Bloody Tuesday” wasn’t just limited to cryptocurrencies, but stocks with direct and indirect exposure to the digital asset class. These once celebrated companies posted sharp losses on Tuesday alongside the world’s biggest cryptocurrencies.

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The Decline of Crypto Proxy Stocks

In terms of losses, shares of Riot Blockchain Inc. (RIOT) were among the hardest hit. The firm plunged 16.5% to $18.28, the lowest since early December. Riot  is the first pure play blockchain company to be listed on the Nasdaq.

LongFin Corp (LFIN), a U.S.-based alternative finance company, shed 8.5% to close at $39.96.

Meanwhile, tZero parent Overstock.com (OSTK) plunged 11% to $70.25 for its lowest settlement in nearly a month.

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Other crypto proxy stocks to fall on Tuesday included chipmaker Nvidia Corp (NVDA), Canada-based Hive Blockchain Technologies Ltd. (HIVE) and Eastman Kodak Co. (KODK), the imaging company that has its eye on the mining enterprise.

These companies are no stronger to crypto-related volatility, having routinely been dragged around by the performance of bitcoin. Losses for these stocks were practically inevitable on Tuesday as the global cryptocurrency market declined by as much as $190 billion.

Virtually every cryptocurrency in the top 100 was down on rumblings that South Korea was considering extreme measures to eliminate speculation from the cryptocurrency market. At the time of writing, authorities were still weighing proposals to rein in speculation on domestic exchanges. Seoul announced Monday it would decide on a next course of action after “sufficient consultation and coordination of opinions.”

The Future of Crypto Stocks

Although it’s difficult to project where the crypto equity class is headed, it’s important to distinguish established technology companies from those looking to pivot into digital currency for some publicity. The likes of Overstock.com and Nividia are certainly some of the more promising businesses to venture into cryptocurrency. However, the lesser-known players will still be snatched up by investors given the relative dearth of traditional assets tied to cryptocurrency.

That being said, institutional investors are starting to get a taste of cryptocurrency. Last month, bitcoin futures hit the market, joining a small list of traditional assets with direct exposure to the crypto market. In addition to futures contracts, Grayscale operates the Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC), which recently launched a 91-for-1 stock split. This means that each investor in the fund will get an additional 91 shares for every one share they own.

GBTC also declined sharply on Tuesday, with the market price per share falling 11.8% to $1,731.50. The fund could be vulnerable to bigger declines on Wednesday as bitcoin prices continue drifting lower. The world’s biggest cryptocurrency touched a session low of $10,047.06 on Tuesday, its lowest since early October.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Market Overview

I Have a Dream Today: HK, Oil & Gold Up, ETC and Ethereum

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Today we celebrate the birthday of a true American hero. One who fought for freedom for all in a country that promised the world and delivered nothing.

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“In a sense, we have come to our nation’s capital to cash a check.”

King said in his famous speech, referring directly to the promise of freedom on which the United States was founded but “it is obvious today that America has defaulted on this promissory note…”

Indeed, the United States seems to enjoy writing checks that it cannot cash. Still, Martin Luther King Jr. was quite optimistic. He believed that his people need only demand payment on that check for its promises of freedom to be redeemed.

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By now many of Dr. King’s initial demands have been met but the fight has evolved. Victims of inequality are not necessarily defined by the color of their skin, nor do they reside solely within the borders of the United States.

We must press on in his symbolic shadow and demand freedom for everyone throughout this entire planet that we all call home.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Record Run in HK
  • Oil & Gold up on Weaker USD
  • Crypto Atmosphere

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of January 15th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

The Asian markets have put on a fantastic show so far today. The China A50 index has now surpassed it’s highs from April of 2015 and is now the highest it’s been since 2008.

The gains in China were propelled further by what’s happening in Hong Kong. The founder and CEO of Alibaba, Jack Ma announced that he is considering listing Alibaba shares on the Hang Seng.

Alibaba’s shares in the US currently hold a record for most stocks sales in an IPO and the company’s daily turnover is about 30% of the entire Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Furthermore, there are rumors that a subsidiary of the Chinese Insurance giant Ping An will be looking to raise $60 Billion from the Hong Kong market in April.

Money comes to money, and as we’ve seen so many times in the crypto market. More activity on an exchange means that everything listed on that exchange can see a boost.

Sinking Buck

The second strongest trend of 2017 was the declining US Dollar. The Dollar Index went from a high of about 103.50 in January to a low of 91.4 in December.

2018 hasn’t been great for the buck either and it’s gotten off to a rather rotten start.

Along with the weakening Dollar comes a strength in commodities. Gold and Oil are priced in USD so they have a very strong reverse corolation.

As we can see here, since Thursday morning the USD has declined 1.8% and Gold has climbed by the same amount.

Though Oil has been a lot more volatile than gold or the buck, it’s strength lately has been astounding. This strong breakout above $60 was certainly unexpected by many…

Don’t get me wrong, oil rising against a weaker Dollar is understandable, but oil rising against more production in the United States is baffeling.

Friday’s Baker Hughes report shows that 280 new rigs came online in the United States over the last year.

Very likely we could see those rigs really get going now that they can get $60+ a barrel for their output.

Crypto Market

It’s easy to make money when everything is rising but when thing get choppy like they are now it can start to get a bit frustrating, especially for beginning traders.

Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen a general pumping pattern where one specific crypto will dominate the market for a few days before flatlining or even pulling back.

Over the weekend, this momentum has been on Ethereum Classic, which went from $31 to $46 in about 60 hours but now may have lost the propulsion.

Ether Classic (ETC) is the hardest crypto for me to explain simply because I don’t see it as useful. It’s not a great store of value and is not meant to be a medium of exchange. So I’m scratching my head trying to figure out why crypto traders latched onto this one.

Of course, if we zoom out a bit we can see the incredible gains of ETC’s younger sister ETH. A platform that has hundreds of projects being built on top of it and currently processes more transactions than any other blockchain.

The present rise in ETC might just indicate that alternative investors are looking for a bit more risk at the moment, and if that’s the case we may see some of the altcoins or even the exotic cryptos gaining a bit. In the chart above we can spot a nice rising trendline (yellow) but if that fails to hold we should have a nice support level just below $900 a token.

Remember: Several of the traditional markets will be closed tonight for the holiday in the USA. Crypto trades 24/7. This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation. The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro. Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose. Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Market Overview

Asian Market Update – Monday: Asian stocks hits all-time high; cryptocurrencies decline

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punching

Slow morning for cryptocurrencies

The top cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, ethereum, bitcoin cash, and ripple, all traded slightly lower on the first day of the week, with no significant news coming out to guide the markets.

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Bitcoin was nearly flat at midday in Asian trading; remaining below the $14,000 line that it has been hovering around in recent days.

On the positive side for bitcoin, US-based Kraken Exchange is back up after a system upgrade that was supposed to take only two hours instead lasted for two days.

Ethereum was also down as of midday in Asian trading on Monday, though much of the losses from yesterday were quickly recovered. In terms of technicals, the strong surge in ethereum that started on New Year’s Eve is still intact, as the price continues to form higher lows and higher highs, which is the typical wave-pattern we are looking for in good trends.

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As of midday in Asia, the price of ethereum is still below the $1,400 level. A break above the previous high of $1,420 would indicate a signal a new immediate surge in price.

Ripple XRP, the number three cryptocurrency in terms of market cap, continued to consolidate Monday morning, remaining below the $2 line for the second day. Since reaching its all-time high on January 4, ripple has now corrected by more than 40 percent to its current level.

Main Market Movers – Midday Asian Trading Session

Indexes Value at Midday Daily Change
Japan- Nikkei 225 23,715 0.26%
China-Shanghai Composite Index 3,419 -0.28%
Hong Kong – Hang Seng 31,582 0.54%
South Korea-KOSPI 2,505 0.33%
Australia-ASX 200 6,077 0.12%
S&P 500 E-Mini Futures 2,794 0.17%

Asian stocks reached for new all-time highs on Monday, as the US dollar continued to weaken, boosting both commodity prices and US export-driven industries. The MSCI index tracking shares in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) finally reached a new all-time high on Monday, as it caught up with its previous high from 2007.

The US stock market has also continued to make fresh gains with the S&P E-mini future rising once again. The uptrend in the S&P 500 has accelerated in a strong way since the beginning of the New Year, proving many bears wrong.

Currencies

The Japanese yen gained 0.14 percent against the US dollar as Tokyo trading ended on Thursday, changing hands at 110.88 per dollar.

The Chinese yuan gained 0.39 percent against the US dollar, trading at 6.438 per dollar.

The Australian dollar added 0.4 percent on the US dollar, changing hands at 1.2585 per US dollar as the Australian trading day was ending.

Commodities

WTI Oil consolidated slightly Monday morning despite the weakening dollar, trading down by 0.08 percent to $64.32.

Brent Crude Oil was flat for the day, trading at $69.80

Gold continued to rise as the dollar declined, adding 0.26 percent to $1,342.

Featured image from Pixabay.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, ethereum and litecoin. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term trading.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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