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What’s a few Zeros Between Friends?

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Scores of Saudi Princes have been arrested over the weekend as part of a shock and awe campaign designed and orchestrated by the new Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.

This unprecedented shakeup is yet another surprising step in Salman’s plot to push the country toward radically conservative reforms.

Among the arrested is billionaire Al-Waleed bin Talal, who is also famous on the internet as being one of the most popular faces for meme generation. You may have seen this picture before…

All jokes aside, this man is among the top ten biggest philanthropists in the world and has given a total of $3.5 Billion to charity. Of course, it’s easier to dig deep when you have deep pockets. Bin Talal’s estimated net worth now stands at approximately $17 billion.

As can be expected, perceived instability in the Middle East is driving up Crude Oil prices. West Texas Crude has now reached $56 a barrel for the first time since June of 2015.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of November 6th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you’re prepared to lose.

Market Overview

Trump has promised the American people tax reforms for Christmas. Of course, this is the type of gift that gives more to Trump than to most Americans but it does seem that many will enjoy it.

There isn’t a lot of time to put this deal together in such a quick timeframe though. The Senate needs a total of 60 people to approve the bill for it to become law. Assuming that all 52 Senate Republicans vote ‘aye’ they still need to convince 8 Democrats to switch sides.

Rather than oversee this directly, Donald Trump, today will be out golfing with his good buddy the Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe. This as the first leg of the President’s massive Asia tour. On second thought, it might be better to leave the Senate to decide amongst themselves. We watch closely as Trump romps around the East and meets with his counterparts there, possibly even with Putin.

The meeting in Japan does seem to be bearing fruit already. Shinzo Abe’s government has already issued a harsh statement against North Korea and will soon be ramping up sanctions against the rogue almost nuclear state. The statement didn’t do much to market prices though and was overshadowed by an announcement from the Bank of Japan this morning.

Bank of Japan Printing Strong

It seems that the BoJ is still worried about inflation and similar to the Fed is wondering when it will come. Unlike the Fed however, Haruhiko Kuroda is willing to continue with Japan’s massive stimulus methods until they are able to squeeze inflation into the economy.

This gung-ho approach to monetary policy sent the Yen to its weakest level against the US Dollar since March. Looking at the USDJPY chart we can see that the range of the past 8 months (blue lines) is now being extended. So far today, we’ve already seen a bit of a reversal back into the range but it’s still unclear if the breakout will resume or if it will reverse back to the average prices (yellow line = 100 day moving average).

Volatility is Dead

Meanwhile, market volatility has again fallen to all-time record lows. Following the slightly disappointing jobs numbers from the USA on Friday the VIX volatility index managed to close at it’s lowest point since the index was created in the early 1990s.

This is certainly a defining sign of the new market conditions we live in. A market flush with cash and zero volatility.

Crypto Zeros

Celebrations rang out across the eToro network over the past few days as Bitcoin continues to break high after record high. The current ATH now stands at $7,574 a coin and we’re seeting a bit of a pullback this morning.

In a single week from October the 29th to November 5th, the price has moved a record $1,919 per coin. To think that it was trading at $1,000 at the start of the year. A pullback at this point would not be surprising. Even if long term projections have it reaching the moon by 2020.

The bigger milestone is that of the entire crypto market. The total value of all cryptocurrencies currently in circultion is now sitting at a record $200 Billion!!

Not a bad year but still, hardly unexpected. For those who belive firmly that blockchain technology will soon replace finance as we know it and even take over many parts of the internet in the next few years, this market is still largely undervalued.

Let’s have an amazing week ahead!!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 115 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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Peter Schiff Tells Joe Rogan Bitcoin Price Will Hit $1,000

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“They think ‘oh, there’s twenty-one million Bitcoins’, and they think that that means they’re scarce. Well they’re not scarce, there’s so many other currencies out there, and it’s only scarce because… it’s coded to be scarce. Gold is scarce because it really is scarce.”

So said investment broker and financial commentator Peter Schiff on July 17th’s episode #1145 of the Joe Rogan Experience. Schiff fully believes that Bitcoin will drop below $1,000 in the near future, at which point it will disintegrate entirely. Funnily enough, Bitcoin’s recent surge began the same day that Schiff conducted the interview.

“There’s nothing that any other cryptocurrency can’t do that Bitcoin is doing… it doesn’t have any actual value. There’s lots of things I can do with gold that shows it has value…”

Lack of Real Value

Schiff went on to list the myriad of industrial, mechanical, medical and personal uses for gold which give it a real-world value – a value which he says Bitcoin lacks.

“All you can do with it is give it to somebody else. That’s its whole purpose is to give it to somebody else.”

At one point in the interview Rogan reminds Peter of the comments he made earlier regarding the state of the dollar economy, and questions why a crypto-based economy couldn’t be feasible.

Schiff, ever the proponent of small-government, pointed out that it would certainly be possible for the government to issue a digital currency in much the same way that they currently issue paper fiat currency, and that such a move would eventually tighten the government’s grip on the whole economy. Whereas before you could receive a $50 from your neighbour for some yard work and not have anyone know, now all of a sudden it would be tracked.

Fatalistic Predictions

It may seem like Schiff dodged the question by pushing everything towards the government angle, but his answer actually revealed his deeper thoughts on the issue. It’s clear from listening to Schiff speak that he doesn’t even question whether governmental regulators will get their paws on crypto – he naturally assumes it to be the case. He goes back to emphasize crypto’s lack of inherent value, saying:

“I don’t think any of these currencies can ever be stable because there’s no value to stable them. There’s no value to store. The only cryptocurrencies that would work are cryptocurrencies that are backed by a real commodity, like gold.”

What followed was an advert for his own gold-backed value transfer platform, Gold Money.

Coming away from the interview, one gets the impression that Peter is tied to a very traditional ethos regarding what qualifies as an effective currency, and may end up surprised by what’s to come.

With that said, I’m sure everyone reading this would agree that he has a point – after all, people don’t really use crypto as currency at the moment. At least not yet. But a quick glance at the crypto headlines reveals several prominent coins opening up crypto-fiat ATM’s, while online marketplaces are popping up where people can make purchases using crypto just as though they were on eBay or Amazon.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 25 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Bitcoin Holds $7350 as Altcoins Show Weakness

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It has been another two-faced session so far in the cryptocurrency segment, as Bitcoin’s strength was in stark contrast with the widespread weakness among altcoins. Besides BTC only Dash is slightly in the green among the top 20 coins, and most of the majors are back in their previous trading ranges after the failed break-out, with still only Bitcoin sporting a short-term buy signal according to our trend model.

The mixed, but dominantly still bearish short-term picture means that traders should still be cautious with new positions, as, despite Bitcoin’s ongoing rally, a test of the June lows is still likely with regards to most of the majors, and new lows are also possible in the coming weeks.

For now, the trading ranges that developed after the June lows are still intact, and the previously negatively diverging coins should still be closely monitored for signs of weakness. On the contrary, should a distinct bullish leadership emerge, a trend change would be more likely, but for now, the technical evidence suggests that the segment-wide downtrend is still intact.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin avoided a breakdown below its break-out levels yesterday despite the widespread altcoin weakness and it managed to recover above the $7350 support/resistance level, keeping the bullish move intact. That said, the coin failed to trigger any form of follow-through among the majors, and that makes the break-out suspicious. Further support is at the line-in-the-sand $7000 level, at $6750, and $6500, while primary resistance is ahead at $7650.

Weak Bounce in Altcoins Following the Failed Break-Out

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

No altcoins triggered a short-term buy signal and most of the currencies experienced a failed breakout, but today the segment stabilized and for now, the June lows are safe. Ethereum continues to be relatively weak from a short-term perspective, as the coin settled down near the $475 level, failing to rally back towards $500.

A move the lower end of the range is likely now, with primary support found at $450, with other levels at $420, $400, $380, and $360, and with further resistance ahead between $555 and $575.

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Thanks to its scarce liquidity, Dash turned very volatile during yesterday’s wild session, but despite the spikes on several exchanges, the coin remained in a similar technical setup as Litecoin, NEO, and Monero, the other relatively weak coins. These coins failed to recover above the structural breakdown levels, and remained on a long-term sell signal, despite Bitcoin’s encouraging rally. Dash should durably recover above $265 to trigger a short-term buy signal, but a move back to $215 seems more likely now.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple is also among the weaker coins today and it failed to stay above the $0.49 resistance level, despite the intraday rally. Now XRP is still above the key long-term level which coincides with June low, but a test of that zone is likely in the coming weeks, as the short-term setup is still bearish. Further resistance is ahead at $0.54 and at $0.575, while primary support is now found at $0.45.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Bitcoin Price and Seasonality: The Coming Rally? 

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A confluence of technical and fundamental indicators has sparked a big rally in the price of bitcoin this week. The cryptocurrency has found support at $7,400 and, after a short breather, appears poised to test $8,000 in relatively short order.

While the debate over bitcoin’s short-term outlook continues, a historical price analysis reveals that the summer sizzle is nothing new. In fact, the months of July and August tend to exhibit strongly bullish patterns going back six years.

Bitcoin’s Hot Summers

The adage “sell in May and walk away” aptly describes trading patterns of traditional markets such as stocks but appears to go against the grain of bitcoin’s price patterns. Historically, bitcoin has generated large returns in the summer months. Going back to 2012, the only major outlier was 2014 when bitcoin rallied in July but fell in August.

While bitcoin has rallied over the past 48 hours, its gains for the month of July have been modest in comparison to previous years. A rosy August outlook suggests prices could be poised for a bigger breakout in the near term.

Although past performance is no guarantee of future success, seasonality plays a vital role in our understanding of the financial markets. In fact, there is an entire literature devoted to understanding how seasonal influences affect market prices.

Bitcoin: Starting Slow and Finishing Strong

Market researchers have also identified price patterns at different points of the year, with the “January effect” and “Santa Claus rally” forming a critical backbone to our understanding of seasonality.

Unlike stocks, which typically rise in January, bitcoin usually struggles out of the gate. Going back six years, the bitcoin price has declined in January in the following years: 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2018. Given the relatively small sample size, it’s not entirely clear why bitcoin struggles to start the year. However, the most recent January downturn was not unexpected given the previous month’s massive peak.

Although bitcoin often starts the year in a defensive position, the price has historically rallied in December. To get there, we usually contend with another bumpy month in the form of September.

Against this backdrop, the worst months for bitcoin tend to be January, May and September. So far this year, January and May have been difficult months for the cryptocurrency. It remains to be seen whether history will repeat itself in the coming months.

Bitcoin Price Levels

After a brief dip, the bitcoin price has held relatively steady on Thursday, with values hovering well north of $7,400. Trading volumes are a healthy $5.6 billion, well above the minimum threshold that usually accompanies a major rally attempt.

Bitcoin continues to trade near 40-day highs. Following the successful defense of $7,200, the bulls could be in position to extend the rally toward $8,000 – a level that has eluded BTC/USD for the better part of two months.

According to Barry Silbert, founder of the Digital Currency Group (DCG), the bitcoin price may have finally bottomed as institutional traders look to stake their position in the market.

In a recent interview with CNBC, Silbert said, “…the bears just kind of ran out of energy,” noting that bitcoin has managed to overcome overwhelming FUD.

“When the chair of the Fed says negative things about bitcoin, and Howard Marks says negative things about bitcoin, and Ken Griffin says negative things about bitcoin, and bitcoin doesn’t move, I think that’s a bullish sign,” he said.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 502 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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