Weekly Forecast: Crypto Markets Show Poise as Bitcoin Dominance Rate Falls Below 51%
Low volumes and tight trading ranges characterized the cryptocurrency market this weekend, as major assets consolidated after last week’s sharp recovery. XRP was the notable exception, as prices returned above $0.60 on positive news concerning commercialization and political advocacy.
Traditional markets fared better than expected in September – a historically volatile month for stocks – and appear poised to continue their winning streak as Q4 gets underway. Economic data and high-stakes trade negotiations between Canada and the United States could set the tone over the next five days.
Bitcoin’s Return to Stability
Bitcoin was unable to set new highs over the weekend but maintained its bullish bias after a strong breakout on Friday. As Hacked previously reported, bitcoin’s RIG trend lines show strong upside potential in the near term. Although this doesn’t negate the long-term bear market, it suggests that a re-test of $7,000 is possible in the not-too-distant future.
Despite returning to stability in recent days, bitcoin’s dominance rate has fallen to the lowest level in over six weeks. Bitcoin’s dominance, or the coin’s share of the total market cap, currently sits at 51.1% after previously falling below 51%.
The planned launch of Bakkt in November is expected to generate a greater sense of urgency to enter the market on the part of institutional investors. Bakkt, with full support from Intercontinental Exchange, is also raising the bar on regulated crypto exchange services, which is expected to encourage stronger infrastructure development in the space. These are just some of the talking points investors can expect to come across over the next week.
Altcoins Aim Higher
Bitcoin’s declining market share comes on the heels of major breakouts for leading altcoins such as XRP, XLM and BCH. While these assets continue to trade at a fraction of their record highs, they have generated notable gains in recent weeks. In all these cases, high-profile business developments were the main catalysts for growth.
XRP continues to show the biggest potential for upside as prices crossed $0.61 over the weekend. In doing so, XRP once again briefly overtook Ethereum as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
Among the three altcoins under consideration, bitcoin cash is the most likely to lose its fizzle. The BCH price spiked suddenly last week after Bitmain revealed the details of its forthcoming initial public offering (IPO).
The altcoin rally has helped cryptoassetd recover nearly $40 billion from the most recent bear market around $186 billion. However, at this stage, a durable rally does not appear to be in the cards. For short term traders, this means extra caution should be observed when entering new positions. For long-term holders, the time is still optimal to add to existing positions.
The Week Ahead
Below is a summary of the major market-moving headlines over the next five days.
The economic calendar features several reports on Monday, including the final batches of Eurozone September manufacturing PMI. The European Commission’s statistical agency will also report on the latest unemployment numbers for August.
In the United States, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will report on manufacturing PMI for September. Separately, the Commerce Department will report on August construction spending.
In the world of crypto, Ripple’s Swell conference in San Francisco will begin on Monday and run through Tuesday. According to the official website, Swell “connects the world’s leading experts on policy, payments and technology for the most provocative dialogue in global payments today.”
Stellar, the world’s sixth largest blockchain, is planning to implement a beta version of its new Lightning Network on Tuesday. Stellar’s developers are planning to take the Lightning Network live Dec. 1.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver its next policy verdict on Tuesday. The RBA’s trend-setting interest rate is forecast to remain steady at 1.5%.
Global data flows will headline traditional markets on Thursday. IHS Markit will release the final batch of September PMI figures for key European markets.
In North America, payrolls processor ADP will release an advance estimate of private-sector job creation for the month of September. Separately, ISM will report on U.S. non-manufacturing PMI.
Data watchers will be keeping close tabs on the U.S. Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims report. The Department of Commerce will also release the latest report on factory orders.
In crypto news, Cardano is planning to update its closely watched roadmap on Thursday. The Global Blockchain Forum in San Francisco is also scheduled to begin on Thursday.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls will dominate the headlines on Friday. The economy is forecast to have added 188,000 workers to payrolls in September following a gain of 201,000 the month before. Average hourly earnings, a proxy for wage inflation, is projected to rise 3% year-over-year.
Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.
Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.