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Weekly Analysis: Stocks and Cryptocurrencies Surge as the Eurozone is Saved (For Now)

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Weekly Recap

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Current Value Weekly Change
2380 1.30%
12470 2.11%
49.19 -1.45%
1269.50 -1.71%
1318 7.85%
1.0898 1.63%

 

Traders could almost hear the collective sigh of relief in the financial world, as the French election removed the risk of an imminent political crisis in the Eurozone. Global stock indices surged to new bull market and all-time highs in the aftermath of the referendum, with the European indices understandably leading the way higher. The NASDAQ also continued to outperform the other majors, boosted by corporate earnings, while the Nikkei ignored the pronounced weakness in Chinese stocks, as Japanese traders celebrated the decline in the Yen. The markets held up well throughout the week, although a lot of stocks failed to join the party, and the weak economic numbers in the US caused a dip towards the end of the week.

Not surprisingly European currencies were the strongest this week, but on an interesting note, the Pound fared better excluding the Monday morning gap higher. The currency remains in a robust short-term uptrend since the announcement of the snap elections in June. The Dollar index remains near its 5-month lows, thanks to the recent strength in the Euro, although the Yen was heavily sold this week, as the demand for safe-haven assets dwindled. Gold was also the victim of the positive sentiment, but it remained relatively strong and gained ground near the end of the period, following the slightly dovish meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. Oil remained under pressure despite the rally in risk-on assets and finished the week near the $49 support after several days of choppy trading.

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Dollar Index, Daily Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The cryptocurrency market had another blowout week, as not only did Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, but several other currencies experienced fierce break-outs. The change in the value of the market reflected the buzz, as the sum of the coins’ market capitalization topped $34 billion, just a few weeks after reaching $30 billion for the first time. Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, and NEM were among the notable winners of the week, as all of them surged to new highs. Towards the end of the week, even the previous laggards among the majors, such as Ripple, Monero, and Dash rallied strongly. Ripple and Dash are flying high so far in weekend trading as well, being up by more than 30%, and 20% respectively. Litecoin failed to rise above last weekend’s highs but it remains just below those levels after a choppy consolidation week.

Economic Numbers

The US economy provided another round of reality check for bulls, as almost all of the major releases posted significant negative surprises. Although the numbers themselves were not terrible by any means (excluding the three-year low in GDP growth), the string momentum that carried the Trump-rally to new highs earlier on this year seems to be fading. While markets don’t expect a rate hike on next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, the additional tightening steps could also be in danger should these tendencies continue. The German IFO index as among the positive surprises, boosting the Euro on Monday, but the British GDP reading also missed expectations, with only the Eurozone inflation number providing evidence of growth.

Technical Corner

S&P 500, 4-hour Chart Analysis

The S&P 500 finished the week slightly lower following the negative GDP surprise, but the “election-gap” is still well below the current levels. As the strong rally in the NASDAQ couldn’t carry the index above its prior high, it seems likely that it will test the 2355 level in the coming days. The long-term picture remains bullish despite the current weakness, and with strong support zones found near 2332 and just below the 2300 level.

Key Economic Releases of the Week

Day Country Release Actual Expected Previous
Monday GERMANY IFO Business Climate 1.26 million 1.25 million 1.22 million
Monday CANADA Wholesale Sales (monthly) 1.22 million 1.25 million 1.30 million
Monday US FOMC’s Kashkari speaks 0.50% 0.50% 0.0%
Tuesday UK Public Sector Borrowing 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
Tuesday US CB Consumer Confidence -1 million -2.2 million
Tuesday US New Home Sales 22.0 25.6 32.8
Wednesday AUSTRALIA CPI (quarterly) 244,000 241,000 234,000
Wednesday CANADA Core Retail Sales
Wednesday US Crude Oil Inventories 0.50% 0.60% 0.50%
Thursday JAPAN Monetary Policy Satement -0.10% -0.30% 1.70%
Thursday EUROZONE Base Interest Rate -3.6 million -1.1 million -1 million
Thursday EUROZONE Monetary Policy Satement
Thursday US Core Durable Goods 0 0 0
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
Thursday US UOM Consumer Sentiment -0.20% 0.40% 0.50%
Friday UK Prelim GDP 257,000 241,000 244,000
Friday GERMANY Retail Sales 0.30% 0.40% 0.60%
Friday US Advance GDP 0.10% 0.10% 1.80%

 

The Story of the Week: Volatility and Short-Interest Near Record Lows on Wall Street

 

Volatility minimums and market tops in the S&P 500

The Volatility Index (VIX) which is one of the simplest measures measuring fear among investors is close to its multi-decade lows. Several commentators draw the conclusion that this has to mean that investors are too bullish, and participants are all in on the long side, so a market decline is inevitable. While the logic might be intriguing, and, in fact, several other measures point to a way overvalued market in the US, don’t fall into the trap of this simple conclusion. Looking at the history of the VIX, we can see that it did a poor job in forecasting the previous two bear markets, and you could even argue that according to this indicator, we are still in for years and years of advances.

On another note, short interest is also hitting record lows, as bears seemingly capitulated after 8-years of gains, and this week’s post-French-election euphoria delivered another blow for the remaining short sellers. The $1 million dollar question is, of course, that are these extremes any indication of a long-term top or not? The correct answer is the usual maybe… Trying to find the “ultimate indicator” (look at this great article on the infamous Hindenburg Omen) is generally a bad idea, but every once in a while all indicators will nail the top. This doesn’t mean that the current overvaluation and these signs of capitulation together shouldn’t be taken seriously, but using more robust methods, like trend analysis should be your primary tools, even if they won’t point out the exact tops and bottoms.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Oil Extends Rally as Nasdaq Leads Stocks Higher

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Friday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2749 1.38%
DAX 12,483 0.18%
WTI Crude Oil 63.58 1.29%
GOLD 1330.00 -0.16%
Bitcoin 10,14 -0.09%
EUR/USD 1.2295 -0.28%

US equities built up some bullish momentum towards the end of the week, ignoring the technical damage that the volatility-crash caused, and the major US indices rallied into the close today, squeezing the shorts. The Nasdaq, which led the rally as we expected, took out the key 6850 level in late trading and added another percent to, incredibly enough, finish only a hundred point of the all-time high.

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NASDAQ 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Should the tech benchmark retest the high next week, it will be amid very strong negative divergences, but hey, those divergences have been building for months now. The rally in equities was boosted by the dip in Treasury yields, especially at the long end of the curve, while Amazon continued ot lead the charge, closing right at the historic $1500 per share level.

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Russell 2000 (Small Cap) Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The advance in the Dow and the S&P 500 is much less convincing and with small caps also lagging the tech-behemoth juggernaut, we remain skeptical regarding the sustainability of the move. That said, if the broader indices stay above the key levels, we will be trading the long side in equities, even as from an investment standpoint, valuations are still way above acceptable.

Forex Markets and Commodities

The lackluster performance of European and Asian stocks adds to the negative divergences, especially as the Euro stopped appreciating against the Greenback, and that should be helping stocks of the old continent. Of course, the DAX and the EuroStoxx 50 could play catch-up next week, barring another surge in the common currency.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The most-traded forex pair remains in a short-term downtrend, as it failed to recapture the previously broken rising trendline, and the commodity related risk-on currencies also remained under pressure. The Canadian Dollar did bounce back off yesterday’s 8-week lows, boosted by the much hihger than expected inflation release and the jump in the price of crude oil.

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Oil benefited from the positive shift in sentiment, while the Syrian situation, which took a backseat in the headlines, still supports the rally. The Japanese Yen and gold were stable amid the risk-rally and that adds to our suspicions regarding the upside potential form these levels.

Cryptocurrencies

The segment started out the day with a strong bounce that carried the major coins higher by around 10%, but given the recent steep short-term pullback, even that wasn’t enough to turn the tide, and the day ended with an (almost usual) sell-off after the US close. Despite the recent volatility, the overall picture is still encouraging, with most of the majors being safely above the crash lows, likely in a new bullish cycle that has the potential to last for several more weeks or even months.

While new all-time highs are it guaranteed following the 60-70% declines among the largest coins, but even without those, plenty of upside potential is left for investors. With that in mind, investors should hold on to their coins and even add to their holdings on the short-term dips like the current one.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Majors Stage Rally but Strong Levels Still Ahead

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The cryptocurrency segment has recovered from a broad correction today in early trading, with the most valuable coins all turning into green during the session, despite the bearish start to the overnight session. With bottom-to-top gains of up to 15%, the rally helped in easing the worries of bulls, especially in the case of the relatively weaker coins.

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Bitcoin and most of the largest altcoins remained stable during the selloff, and BTC recaptured the $10,000 level quickly after trading as low as $9600 overnight. The initial rally topped out near $10,400, and the coin is trading back near the $10,000 level, as the bullish momentum faded away somewhat.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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That said, we expect the uptrend to continue even if the correction could still carry Bitcoin lower. Further strong support is found between $9000 and $9200, while targets are ahead at $11,300, $13,000, and $14,250.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum showed strength during the bounce again after yesterday, together with the early leaders of the rally, and although the coin dipped below the $845 level in the second half of the session, the signs remain positive for bulls. Support levels are now found at $780, $740, $625 and $575, while resistance is ahead near $910 and $1000.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Pre-Market: Stocks Refuse to Fall Even as China Takes Over Key Insurer

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Although it should have been a very quiet week in China, thanks to the New Year celebrations, the recent surge in volatility and the plunge in equities didn’t pass without consequences in the key market. Just shortly after effectively shutting down the Chinese version of the Volatility Index (VIX) (presumably to calm the markets…), one of the main actors of the monstrous financial web, Anbang, of the country had to be taken over to avoid a systemic event and stop the “creative” financial engineering that involved criminal activity (the shadow of 2008).

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China will likely need many more duck-tapes like this one if it wants to stop the largest credit bubble in human history to collapse, but for now, the solution could work. Equity futures edged higher since yesterday’s volatile close, and as the major US indices are holding up well, not far off last Friday’s highs, our bearish short-term view might have to be revised.

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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As we discussed before, the long-term uptrend is intact, and we expect at least a re-test of the highs even if we are in a large-scale top formation, but we thought that the technical damage caused by the crash three weeks ago would require more healing.

We are not turning bullish just yet, but today’s session could finally decide if we the BTFD-crowd is strong enough to turn the tide after the choppy drift lower this week. We are still focusing on the Nasdaq, as the broader market seems to be following the lead of the tech benchmark, and a move 6850 (in the Nasdaq 100 futures, and still the 2735 level in the S&P) would be a very positive sign for bulls.

DAX Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The German DAX index is also showing some tentative short-term relative strength although it remains almost 10% below its all-time high, and it remains a strong negative divergence to be monitored.

Forex Markets Quiet

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The main pairs are trading in a choppy narrow range today after the strong move in the Yen and the drop in the USD yesterday. US Treasury Yields are edging lower today, helping the calm in equities and currencies, but on a bearish note, commodity currencies failed to rebound so far, and they were providing good signals since the crash. Day-traders should note that the Canadian Dollar will likely be very active again, with the Canadian CPI report coming out pre-market.

To sum the outlook up, we are still leaning on the risk-off side here regarding the short-term outlook, but we wouldn’t bet the farm on that, as there are mixed signals before the weekend.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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