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Weekly Analysis: Bitcoin on New Highs Again after Busy and Surprising Week

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Weekly Recap

Asset Current Value Weekly Change
S&P 500 2428 0.15%
DAX 12815 0.11%
WTI Crude Oil 45.90 -4.15%
GOLD 1268.00 -1.08%
Bitcoin 2876 11.23%
EUR/USD 1.1195 -0.76%

The British snap election fueled the most prominent moves of the week, as the Pound was heavily sold on the narrow victory of the Conservative Party. The Euro also got under pressure after the referendum, but global stock markets emerged unharmed form the brief turmoil. The major US indices continued to hit new all-time highs, although a strange flash crash occurred in some of the biggest names in the NASDAQ (Apple, Amazon) on Friday. Whether or not this is the beginning of something bigger is yet to be seen, but the fact that a single investment report (by Goldman Sachs, of course) could have such a huge effect on prices is, at least, interesting.Financial markets had a very busy week, with some unforeseen events and surprising developments. Qatar entered the spotlight somewhat out of the blue, when Saudi Arabia and its allies initiated a diplomatic blockade against the country. While the effects on the global markets have been limited so far, this might be the first step in an escalation between the two major power centers of the region, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Donald Trump continues to be a major contributor to the news flow, as the Comey-Russia scandal is starting to really hurt position of the President, following a controversial round of hearings in the ex-FBI Director’s case.

The Chinese stock market was among the positive surprises of the week as it remained strong despite the mostly negative economic news coming out from the country. Of course, the huge problems of the Chinese financial system are far from solved, but the genie is back in the bottle for now. Commodities had a mixed week, with both gold and oil being on a roller-coaster most of the times. The Chinese rebound helped the industrial segment with copper finally showing some strength, although the global growth concerns are not gone, and we might be in for more weakness down the road.

Amazon (AMZN), 5-minute chart

Cryptocurrencies

The coins had a busy and bullish week, as Bitcoin and Ethereum hit new highs once again, with ETH providing the biggest boost to the market. Ripple continues to struggle, especially compared to the other cryptocurrencies, as it continues to be in a long-term correction phase. Litecoin, Monero, Ethereum Classic, and Dash are consolidating in a bullish fashion, although they all failed to make meaningful progress during the week. NEM is under pressure following in Ripple’s footsteps, while last week’s star Stratis is in a short-term correction , with Bitashares jumping into the top 10 coins in market value according to Coinmarketcap after an epic rally.

Ethereum, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Economic Numbers

Economic releases were mixed once again, with the most important numbers coming in slightly below expectations. The British economy kept on disappointing, especially the forward-looking indicators, which is not a good sign before the conclusion of the Brexit talks. The US economy still seems OK before next week’s Fed decision, although the surprises are overwhelmingly on the negative side. The ECB and Mario Draghi hit a more cautious tone on the central bank’s monetary meeting, and that stopped the Euro’s rally for now. It is now up to the Federal Reserve to evaluate the conditions, with forex traders anxiously looking for clues about the bank’s future policies.

Technical Corner

NASDAQ 100 Futures, 4-hour Chart Analysis

The NASDAQ 100 basically flash crashed on Friday as the biggest names in the benchmark dragged it lower, erasing almost two-weeks of gains in just two hours. Although the index rebounded off its lows, it is a strong indication that there is increased fragility in the system after the robust Trump-rally. The most important levels to watch next week are at 5725, 5675, and near 5600.

Key Economic Releases of the Week

Day Country Release Actual Expected Previous
Monday UK Services PMI 53.8 55.1 55.8
Monday US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.9 57.1 57.5
Monday US Factory Orders -0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Tuesday AUSTRALIA RBA Rate Decision 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
Tuesday AUSTRALIA RBA Statement
Tuesday CANADA Ivey PMI 53.8 62 62.4
Wednesday AUSTRALIA GDP Growth 0.30% 0.30% 1.10%
Wednesday UK Halifax HPI 0.40% -0.20% -0.10%
Wednesday CANADA Building Permits -0.20% 2.40% -5.80%
Wednesday US Crude Oil Inventories 3.3 mill -3.1 mill -6.4 mill
Thursday JAPAN Final GDP Growth 0.30% 0.60% 0.50%
Thursday AUSTRALIA Trade Balance 0.56 bill 1.99 bill 3.11 bill
Thursday CHINA Trade Balance 282 bill 336 bill 262 bill
Thursday EUROZONE ECB Interest Rate Decision 0 0 0
Thursday EUROZONE ECB Monetary Statement
Thursday CANADA NHPI Index 0.80% 0.30% 0.20%
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims 245,000 241,000 248,000
Friday US Prelim GDP 1.20% 0.90% 0.70%
Friday UK Construction PMI 56.0 52.7 53.1
Friday CANADA Trade Balance -0.4 bill 0.0 bill -0.1 bill
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls 138,000 186,000 211,000
Friday US Hourly Earnings 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Friday US Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.4% 4.4%
Friday US Trade Balance -45.5 bill -45.5 bill -43.7 bill

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Extend Weekly Losses as Altcoins Still Glued to Support Levels

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We are having another broadly negative session so far in the cryptocurrency segment, with most of the majors sporting limited losses, and with only a few coins showing relative strength. While the picture is far from being disastrous, we have seen some technical deterioration in the top coins, as Ripple is still bleeding lower, and as Ethereum fell below the $200 price level again.

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The likes of Litecoin, Dash, EOS, IOTA, NEO, and ETC are still weak from a technical perspective, and although some of the minor coins are still faring somewhat better, at least short-term, the overall picture remains overwhelmingly bearish.

Bitcoin’s stability is still a plus for bulls here, but with no sign of meaningful bullish momentum among the top digital currencies, traders should remain defensive even with regards to the relatively stronger coins.


BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The most valuable coin is trading slightly lower amid the segment-wide drift lower, but the $6275 support is still well below the current level, and the volatility in BTC’s market continues to be very low. A move below would warn of a test of the $6000 and $5850 levels, and for now, the short-term sell signal is still in place in our trend model despite Bitcoin’s stability.

The next major support zone below $5850 is found between $5000 and $5100, while resistance is ahead at $6500, $6750, and $7000.

Ripple’s Weakness Casts a Shadow on the Market

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple hasn’t been able to hold last week’s gains, and the coin moved below $0.46 this week, warning of a coming test of the $0.42 level, and a possible resumption of its broader downtrend after its surge in September.

Below $0.42 support levels are found near $0.375 and $0.355, and further weakness could soon lead to a downgrade in our trend model with regards to the long-term outlook, with strong resistance levels still ahead near $0.51, $0.54, and $0.57.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin has been one of the stronger coins so far today, but from a broader perspective, it remains relatively weak and the $51 support level looks more and more vulnerable. A break below primary support would likely lead to a test of the bear market low near $47, with the next major support zone below that found at $44.

The broad declining trend is clearly intact, in the coin and traders and investors shouldn’t enter new positions here, with our trend model being negative on all time-frames, and with strong resistance levels ahead near $56, $59, and $64.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum continues to show relative weakness, and although remained stable in recent days, the broader setup hints on a likely test of the bear-market low. The coin drifted below the $200 level today, but volatility remains low, and trading activity is still very light.

The currency remains on sell signals on all time-frames, even as the immediate outlook is rather neutral, with key support found near $180, $170, and $160, and with strong resistance zones ahead near $235 and $260.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Zcash (ZEC) Price Analysis: Market Cap Growth Continues, More Updates Coming Soon

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  • Zcash moves up to rank 19 on the top cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
  • The Sapling upgrade just a few days away, as Zcash team suggest there could be more announcements soon.

Zcash (ZEC) continues to jump up the ladder, with its growing market capitalization. Last week it managed to creep into the top 20 cryptocurrencies, by market cap. Most recently, it has now moved up to rank 19. At the time of writing, it is seen at $624.5 million, ahead of VeChain (VET) with $612.6 million.

Countdown for Sapling Upgrade

It is just under 6 days now until the anticipated Sapling upgrade from the Zcash foundation. According to the firm, ‘Activation block 419200 will be mined October 29, 2018 01:31 UTC+00:00 assuming 150 seconds/block.’ The build-up of this is something that has appeared to be very supportive in the elevation of the ZEC price.

The Sapling is a network upgrade that boasts increased efficiency for transactions of which are shielded. They will facilitate broad mobile, exchange and vendor adoption of the Zcash shielded addresses. Zcash’s goal is to also see increased speed with these shielded transactions; it is touted that transactions can be shielded in less than 1 second.

New Announcements Coming Soon?

The Zcash team via their Twitter account have continued to count down their upcoming upgrade, tweeting “Is your product is #Sapling-ready? Or you would like to learn more about supporting the #Zcash Sapling upgrade? Reach out and let’s connect!” Within the tweet, they covered existing Salping-ready services listing; Bithumb, BitGo, Coinomi, Lamassu, Ledger, Suprnova, Trezor and WinZEC. They noted “MORE COMING SOON!” implying there are potential pending partnerships and integrations in the works.

Technical Review – Daily Chart

ZEC/USD daily chart

ZEC/USD bulls are on the hunt for an extended breakout north, as a vital trend line is being tested. A break of the mentioned resistance is seen tracking at $126. If a breach and daily close above, should open to door wide open to some buying pressure. The bulls will be met right away by some supply running from $130-133. As a result, sellers have knocked the price down throughout October, within this territory. Finally, for upside targets, a rally up to $145, would like then come into play. The price last traded here on 28th September.

In terms of support, this is seen all the way back down at $110. A lower supporting trend line can be observed tracking here. This has been active since mid-September. Furthermore, a buying area is noted from $100-95.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 33 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

XRP Price Analysis: Reports Indicate National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) is Set to Go Live With xCurrent

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  • Sources suggest National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) are moving closer to going live within Ripple’s xCurrent solution.
  • Despite current XRP/USD selling pressure, a bullish technical set up is still seen as a potential.

National Bank of Kuwait Ready to Use xCurrent

One of the largest banks in the Middle East, National Bank of Kuwait (NBK), is readying to move forward with xCurrent. It is reported this could be in place within the next few weeks. xCurrent is Ripple’s enterprise software solution that facilitates banks to instantly settle cross-border payments, providing end-to-end tracking.

The latest suggested is that the NBK are currently awaiting to receive the green light from the Central Bank of Kuwait. Sources close to the matter, are said to note that NBK are currently preparing for its first transaction with the xCurrent solution. In terms of time frame, the suggestions are for the back end of October, or by early November. These sources are being cited by the newswire, Crypto Briefing.

Earlier this year, in May, the National Bank of Kuwait mentioned Ripple via their official Twitter account. They tweeted, “NBK leads the way in Kuwait in a partnership with RippleNet to offer instant cross-border payments to customers Ripple.” Nothing further on this, from either the NBK or Ripple was noted.

It is important to note that the xCurrent solution does not use XRP tokens, unlike xRapid, which enables banks to send payments using XRP. It can then be transacted back into the appropriate fiat currency by the receiver. On the basis of the above noted, it is likely to have a direct influence on the value of XRP.

Technical Review – 4-hour Chart

XRP/USD 4-hour chart

Despite the consistent downside pressure observed with XRP/USD, a potential bullish technical set up can still be eyed. As seen on the 4-hour time frame, price action has been moving within a bullish flag pattern. The lower support has recently been penetrated by the market bears.

Near-term support eyed immediately at $0.4660-40 area, the below trend line. Further south, a demand zone is seen running from $0.4535 down to $0.4350. This was an area that caught the price during some hard selling at the back end of September. Bulls managed to kick started a recovery at this low area on 25th September. Should this technical set up fail to play out, eyes will then be on $0.4000 for support. Last traded down here on 15th October. Lastly, looking at resistance, this is seen just ahead at $0.4650, upper trend line of the flag. Ahead, there is heavy supply heading into and within the $0.5000 territory.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 33 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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