Weekly Analysis: Bitcoin on New Highs Again after Busy and Surprising Week

Weekly Recap

Asset Current Value Weekly Change
S&P 500 2428 0.15%
DAX 12815 0.11%
WTI Crude Oil 45.90 -4.15%
GOLD 1268.00 -1.08%
Bitcoin 2876 11.23%
EUR/USD 1.1195 -0.76%

The British snap election fueled the most prominent moves of the week, as the Pound was heavily sold on the narrow victory of the Conservative Party. The Euro also got under pressure after the referendum, but global stock markets emerged unharmed form the brief turmoil. The major US indices continued to hit new all-time highs, although a strange flash crash occurred in some of the biggest names in the NASDAQ (Apple, Amazon) on Friday. Whether or not this is the beginning of something bigger is yet to be seen, but the fact that a single investment report (by Goldman Sachs, of course) could have such a huge effect on prices is, at least, interesting.Financial markets had a very busy week, with some unforeseen events and surprising developments. Qatar entered the spotlight somewhat out of the blue, when Saudi Arabia and its allies initiated a diplomatic blockade against the country. While the effects on the global markets have been limited so far, this might be the first step in an escalation between the two major power centers of the region, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Donald Trump continues to be a major contributor to the news flow, as the Comey-Russia scandal is starting to really hurt position of the President, following a controversial round of hearings in the ex-FBI Director’s case.

The Chinese stock market was among the positive surprises of the week as it remained strong despite the mostly negative economic news coming out from the country. Of course, the huge problems of the Chinese financial system are far from solved, but the genie is back in the bottle for now. Commodities had a mixed week, with both gold and oil being on a roller-coaster most of the times. The Chinese rebound helped the industrial segment with copper finally showing some strength, although the global growth concerns are not gone, and we might be in for more weakness down the road.

Amazon (AMZN), 5-minute chart


The coins had a busy and bullish week, as Bitcoin and Ethereum hit new highs once again, with ETH providing the biggest boost to the market. Ripple continues to struggle, especially compared to the other cryptocurrencies, as it continues to be in a long-term correction phase. Litecoin, Monero, Ethereum Classic, and Dash are consolidating in a bullish fashion, although they all failed to make meaningful progress during the week. NEM is under pressure following in Ripple’s footsteps, while last week’s star Stratis is in a short-term correction , with Bitashares jumping into the top 10 coins in market value according to Coinmarketcap after an epic rally.

Ethereum, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Economic Numbers

Economic releases were mixed once again, with the most important numbers coming in slightly below expectations. The British economy kept on disappointing, especially the forward-looking indicators, which is not a good sign before the conclusion of the Brexit talks. The US economy still seems OK before next week’s Fed decision, although the surprises are overwhelmingly on the negative side. The ECB and Mario Draghi hit a more cautious tone on the central bank’s monetary meeting, and that stopped the Euro’s rally for now. It is now up to the Federal Reserve to evaluate the conditions, with forex traders anxiously looking for clues about the bank’s future policies.

Technical Corner

NASDAQ 100 Futures, 4-hour Chart Analysis

The NASDAQ 100 basically flash crashed on Friday as the biggest names in the benchmark dragged it lower, erasing almost two-weeks of gains in just two hours. Although the index rebounded off its lows, it is a strong indication that there is increased fragility in the system after the robust Trump-rally. The most important levels to watch next week are at 5725, 5675, and near 5600.

Key Economic Releases of the Week

Day Country Release Actual Expected Previous
Monday UK Services PMI 53.8 55.1 55.8
Monday US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.9 57.1 57.5
Monday US Factory Orders -0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Tuesday AUSTRALIA RBA Rate Decision 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
Tuesday AUSTRALIA RBA Statement
Tuesday CANADA Ivey PMI 53.8 62 62.4
Wednesday AUSTRALIA GDP Growth 0.30% 0.30% 1.10%
Wednesday UK Halifax HPI 0.40% -0.20% -0.10%
Wednesday CANADA Building Permits -0.20% 2.40% -5.80%
Wednesday US Crude Oil Inventories 3.3 mill -3.1 mill -6.4 mill
Thursday JAPAN Final GDP Growth 0.30% 0.60% 0.50%
Thursday AUSTRALIA Trade Balance 0.56 bill 1.99 bill 3.11 bill
Thursday CHINA Trade Balance 282 bill 336 bill 262 bill
Thursday EUROZONE ECB Interest Rate Decision 0 0 0
Thursday EUROZONE ECB Monetary Statement
Thursday CANADA NHPI Index 0.80% 0.30% 0.20%
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims 245,000 241,000 248,000
Friday US Prelim GDP 1.20% 0.90% 0.70%
Friday UK Construction PMI 56.0 52.7 53.1
Friday CANADA Trade Balance -0.4 bill 0.0 bill -0.1 bill
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls 138,000 186,000 211,000
Friday US Hourly Earnings 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Friday US Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.4% 4.4%
Friday US Trade Balance -45.5 bill -45.5 bill -43.7 bill


Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.