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Weekly Analysis: 5 Things to Watch the Coming Week

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Weekly Analysis: 5 Things to Watch the Coming Week

Introduction

This article was posted on Sunday, 18:59, UTC.
Asset Current Value Weekly Change
S&P 500 2398 0.88%
DAX 12675 1.76%
WTI Crude Oil 46.47 -5.75%
GOLD 1228.00 -3.21%
Bitcoin 1570 16.11%
EUR/USD 1.0998 0.91%

5 Things to Watch Next Week

  1. More new all-time highs ahead for stocks?

While several cracks appeared under the surface of the current rally globally—the Chinese woes, the weak performance of the broad US indices, and the slowing US economic growth, the NASDAQ and German equities continued to trend higher to new all-time highs. The leadership of the advance is narrowing, and although that doesn’t mean that a decline is imminent and another leg higher following today’s French is possible, this is definitely not the best time to buy stocks.

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  1. Will the cryptocurrency market hit the $50 billion mark?

Litecoin and Ripple are the stars of the weekend so far among the coins, but Bitcoin is also holding up well despite the volatile correction towards the end of the week. The historic $50 billion level in capitalization is less than 10% away, and it’s hard to believe that the current boom won’t carry the market above that in the coming days, with more and more smaller coins popping up on the radar with stellar gains, like Bytecoin, Dogecoin, Steem, and Stratis.

  1. Is the sell-off in oil over?

Oil fell almost 20% in three weeks after a strong rebound in March, as US production keeps on rising and the recent geopolitical woes failed to prop up the market. Also, the North-Korean and Syrian tensions eased somewhat, even though the verbal bouts continued, and China increased the pressure on the communist regime. An escalation could propel a strong rebound in the Black Gold, as it got clearly oversold, even if the fundamentals remain bleak.

  1. Gold turning higher again?

Sentiment towards precious metals turned negative following the first round of the French election, and the confident words of the Fed pushed gold even lower in the second half of the week. Gold is now almost $80 lower than two weeks ago and that could mean that the metal is close to ending the current correction.  If stocks turn lower next week, gold might quickly snap back above the crucial $1240 level

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  1. The Pound in the spotlight as the Bank of England holds meeting

The GBP has been one of the strongest currencies since Theresa May announced a snap election three weeks ago, pushing the GBP/USD pair towards the 1.30 level. The Pound also held up well compared to the surging Euro, despite the ongoing dispute regarding the Brexit process that points more and more to a “hard” version of the break-up. With the Pound being stronger the pressure to protect the currency is lower on the BOE, so it’s easy to imagine that the central bank will rather try to boost growth, even if just verbally, causing a correction in the GBP.

The Pound in a strong uptrend against the US Dollar, 4-Hour Chart

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In Focus: Cryptocurrencies

 

Weekly performance comparison of the major cryptocurrencies, Hourly Chart

Bitcoin took center stage this week, even considering the HUGE rally in Ripple and Litecoin, as the main cryptocurrency stormed to new all-time highs, hitting the $1600 level that seemed so distant just over a month ago, amid the hard-fork fears. BTC breached the $25 billion level this week for the first time in its history, and although a correction is a real possibility here, the currency is hovering just below its highs this weekend. Ripple and Litecoin are on the move once again with LTC copying its weekend break-out from two weeks ago, while Ripple doubled in the course of the last week. The market capitalization list was little changed despite the strong moves although Dash is sliding lower with NEM and ETC both on its neck after the crazy period.  With buy signals all over the market traders were able to ride major break-outs almost on a daily basis, and hopefully, the favorable conditions will persist throughout the next week as well.

Currency Weekly Volume Monthly Volume Market Cap
Bitcoin 4,370 11,044 25,664
Ethereum 1,475 3,721 8,769
Ripple 652 1,157 5.041
Litecoin 988 2,767 1,531
Dash 126 462 729
NEM 52 151 689
Ethereum Classic 339 830 654
Monero 90 247 429


Key Economic Releases of the Week

Day Country Release Expected Previous
Monday CHINA Trade Balance 197 bill 164 bill
Monday GERMANY Factory Orders 0.70% 3.40%
Monday UK Halifax HPI 0.1% 0.0%
Tuesday AUSTRALIA Retail Sales (monthly) 0.3% -0.1%
Tuesday AUSTRALIA Annual Budget
Tuesday CANADA Building Permits (monthly) 0.40% -2.50%
Tuesday US JOLTS Job Openings 5.67 mill 5,74 mill
Wednesday CHINA CPI Index 1.10% 0.90%
Wednesday CHINA PPI Index 6.8% 7.6%
Wednesday EUROZONE ECB President Draghi Speaks
Wednesday US Import Prices (monthly) 0.2% -0.2%
Wednesday US Crude Oil Inventories  – -0.9 mill
Thursday SWITZERLAND CPI Index 0.20% 0.20%
Thursday UK Manufacturing Production -0.20% -0.1%
Thursday UK Service PMI 54.6 55.0
Thursday UK Official Bank Rate 0.25% 0.25%
Thursday UK Monetary Statement
Thursday UK PPI Index 0.2% -0.1%
Thursday CANADA NHPI Index 0.3% 0.4%
Friday GERMANY Prelim GDP 0.6% 0.4%
Friday US CPI Index 0.20% -0.30%
Friday US Core CPI 0.2% -0.1%
Friday US Retail Sales (monthly) 0.60% -0.20%
Friday US Core Retail Sales 0.50% 0.00%
Friday US UOM Consumer Sentimnet 97.0 97.0
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Mate Cser

Mate Cser

Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.

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