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Week In Review: Stocks Take-Off Along with Bitcoin and the Dollar

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Stocks, bitcoin and the dollar are seeing green this week, with momentum hard to stop thanks to a multitude of favorable developments in the global financial markets.

Wall Street’s Rally Extends to Six Weeks

U.S. stocks ended in record territory on Friday, with the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 setting fresh highs. Upbeat earnings and progress on the political front have been the main catalysts behind the recent run of gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% on Friday, extending its weekly rally to 2%. The blue-chip index has gained 18% since Jan. 1.

The Nasdaq Composite Index on Friday produced its 62nd all-time for the year, on par with the 1999 tech bubble. The S&P 500 Index also printed fresh records Friday for the 49th time this year. According to Bloomberg, that rate has been eclipsed five times since 1946.

A measure of 30-day volatility known as the CBOE VIX settled in the single digits Friday. Investors have been net short volatility all year long.

The VIX has traded in the 9s for the better part of the month. That’s less than half of its historic mean.

Corporate Earnings Mostly Positive

Several Dow Jones blue chips reported earnings this week, with the likes of UnitedHealth (UNH) and Goldman Sachs (GS) beating forecasts. The broader S&P 500 is on track for another quarter of year-over-year earnings growth, according to FactSet.

The financial researcher says 17% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings through Friday. Their blended earnings growth is 1.7%. Six sectors have contributed to the gains, with energy leading the way.

Dollar Gains Traction

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose half a percent Friday en route to two-week highs after Republican senators approved a budget blueprint that paves the way for President Trump’s tax overhaul. Lawmakers voted along party lines, with 51 GOP Senators backing the budget.

The DXY dollar basket finished the week at 93.70, having gained in five of the last seven sessions. The greenback rose to more than three-month highs against the yen. It also jumped more than 1% against the Canadian dollar Friday to reach the highest level since August.

A stronger dollar also weighed on commodities, which are denominated in the U.S. currency. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures finished higher for the week, but were knocked off multi-week highs.

Precious metals were among the biggest losers this week, with gold futures shedding more than $24 to settle at $1,280.50 a troy ounce. That’s the lowest settlement in two weeks on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Silver futures also sold off 1.9% to $17.08 a troy ounce.

Bitcoin Reaches New Milestone

Bitcoin surpassed its altcoin competitors this week by posting fresh all-time highs. The world’s no. 1 blockchain asset briefly rose above $6,000 on Friday, bringing its total market cap to $100.8 billion. If bitcoin were a stock, it would be more valuable than Goldman Sachs and Netflix.

Like prior rallies, there was no immediate explanation for bitcoin’s massive appreciation. Investors continue buying the dips as bullish sentiment extends globally.

The broader cryptocurrency market didn’t participate in bitcoin’s rally on Friday. The asset class is collectively valued at over $173 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.

The Week Ahead

Economic data are back in focus next week, headlined by U.S. durable goods orders, U.K. GDP and a slew of PMI reports. Corporate earnings from the S&P 500 are also set to continue all week.

On the policy front, the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada are scheduled to deliver interest rate decisions. No change on either front is expected.

The outcome of Japan’s forthcoming election will also be in the spotlight. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected to win big in the Oct. 22 vote.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 741 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Market Overview

Stocks Power Ahead as China Pledges to Eliminate U.S. Trade Deficit; Cryptocurrencies Stabilize

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U.S. stocks surged on Friday, extending their winning streak to four days after China proposed new measures to help Washington eliminate its burgeoning trade deficit. Cryptocurrencies hovered near break-even for the week, as a lack of trading catalysts kept investors non-committal.

Stocks Extend Rally

All of Wall Street’s major indexes booked solid gains to close at their highest in well over a month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 336.25 points, or 1.4%, to 24,706.35. The index was led by gains Hone Depot Inc. (HD), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH).

The much broader S&P 500 Index rose 1.3% to 2,670.71. Ten of 11 primary sectors finished higher, led by energy, industrials and materials stocks.

The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1% to finish at 7,157.23.
Stocks have gained more than 6% since the year began, as traders looked to offset some of last quarter’s brutal declines.

End of the Trade War?

China is serious about ending the trade war with the United States. Sources close to the negotiations confirmed on Friday that Beijing has offered the United States a six-year increase in U.S. imports valued at more than $1 trillion. This would allow Washington to fully eliminate its annual trade deficit with China, currently valued at $323 billion, by 2024. CCN has more: Bye Bye Trade War? China Plans $1 Trillion Buying Spree to Reduce US Trade Deficit.

As Hacked reported Thursday, U.S. lawmakers are strongly considering lifting tariffs on Chinese imports in a renewed push to broker a new trade deal with Beijing. The Trump administration had previously pledged to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods before Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a temporary truce in December. The truce allowed both sides to negotiate a new trade deal over the next 90 days.

Crypto Prices Subdued

Crypto prices maintained their stability on Friday, as contradictory signals kept market activity to a minimum. This comes despite a noticeable pickup in trade volume over the past seven days.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization hovered below $122 billion, where it was virtually unchanged compared to seven days ago. The market bottomed near $116 billion last Sunday before quickly rebounding near $125 billion on Monday. Throughout the week, trade volumes have hovered in the $16-17 billion range. As Hacked recently reported, bitcoin has seen a sharp rise in circulation over the past 30 days.

Read Hacked.com’s Weekly Recap: Crypto Volatility Declines as Bitcoin Shows Renewed Stability; U.S.-China Trade War Could Soon End.

By late afternoon, most major assets were trading lower over the 24-hour cycle. Bitcoin was trading at $3,650, where it was tracking a 24-hour loss of 0.5%. XRP and Ethereum each fell more than 1.5%. Bitcoin cash and EOS booked losses of more than 2% each.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 741 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Analysis

3 Things You Need to Know About the Market Today: Trade Rally, Pound Pullback, Tesla Worries

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1, Trade Optimism Drives Rally in Stocks, Oil

Shanghai Composite, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The US government is mulling to lift or ease some of the trade tariffs on Chinese goods, at least according to the reports that surfaced yesterday, and although the rumors were promptly denied by the Treasury, risk assets have been pushing higher ever since. Global stocks are trading at 1-month highs, with understandably, the major US indices and China leading the way higher. We expect further gestures by the two sides in the coming weeks, as the talks progress, but a final agreement could still be months away.

The most affected commodities, such as copper and oil are also up today, and but as we noted this weekend, the oversold rally in risk assets is stretched now. Also, even as the weaker global benchmarks, such as the Shanghai Composite have joined the party, the clear economic slowdown and the bearish technicals make the current environment hostile for bulls

2, Pound Retreats After Hitting 2-Month High Above 1.30

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Besides the Trade War saga, the likely delay of the Brexit deadline has been making waves all week long, and Pound bulls seem to like the idea of a possible “soft” deal with the European Union. The currency hit its highest level against the Dollar since mid-November, topping the 1.30 level, while British stocks are also trading near their 2019 highs.

Prime Minister Theresa May pledged to include the opposition parties following Wednesday’s no-confidence vote, but for now, even starting the talks is challenging, even though the government labeled the first talks “constructive”. In any case, with the chances of a no-deal Brexit being low right now, the Pound could enjoy further gains, especially as long as the global risk rally lasts.

3, Tesla Disappoints With Guidance, Cuts Workforce by 7%

Tesla (TSLA), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While it held up very well during the recent tumroil in the stock market, Elon Musk’s crown jewel, Tesla (TSLA) has been down by as much as 8% today in pre-market trading after warning investors that the electric car maker will likely turn a smaller-than-expected profit in the coming quarter. Tesla is struggling to ramp up the production of the Model 3, while also facing difficulties to hit its cost goal with regards to its “mass” product.

With the traditional car makers slowly but surely closing in on the company, and given the looming cash flow issues, the coming quarters will crucial for the Musk. The company just avoided bankruptcy in its early days, and some bears think that the fierce competition and the production issues could lead to a crisis yet again. The company’s workforce skyrocketed in recent years, and today CEO Musk also announced that it will lay off 7%, approximately 3000 workers, to cut costs after the expansion. He stated that,

“We unfortunately have no choice but to reduce full-time employee headcount by approximately 7%, we grew by 30% last year, which is more than we can support, and retain only the most critical temps and contractors (…)”

While today, earnings reports will be few and far between, Netflix (NFLX) will also be in focus after reporting yesterday in after-hours trading, and for now, the streaming giant is also trading lower despite the broad overnight rally in stocks.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 443 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Market Overview

Make it or Break it

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Hi Everyone,

In the United States at the moment, there are nearly 39 million people on food stamps. We already know that government workers are not getting paid during the shutdown but what now seems unclear is how the shutdown affects the poor.

For those of you who are not familiar with food stamps, this is the US government’s welfare program that provides food to poor people by giving them coupons that they can take to the store.

The thing is, the system is quite complex and varies for different states and different retailers. A few stores have already been forced to stop accepting food stamps due to the shutdown and some states have given their citizens an advanced payment.

For now, it seems that only a small number of people have actually been affected but with some analysts predicting that the shutdown could last for several more months, the future seems incredibly uncertain and information is hard to come by. So it’s worth keeping an eye on this development as it could potentially affect several areas of the US economy and the broader market.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Shutdown: Day 28 | Days to Brexit: 70
  • 10 Year Challenge
  • Russia’s Real Crypto Plans

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of January 18th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

The markets were relieved yesterday by the news that…

This is a good indication that US-China trade talks are going well and seeing any sort of concessions from the White House, or even the indication that there may be concessions, is cause for celebration among investors.

The positive sentiment has carried through the Asian session and well into European trading.

Risk On

With the rise in stocks, we’re seeing some of the hallmarks that show investors are looking to take on more risk today.

Gold has managed to pull back from the $1,300 resistance level and oil is testing new highs, despite an IEA report that expects over-production to continue.

Perhaps the biggest indication of risk on sentiment today is coming from the USDJPY, which has now stepped over the 109 level as traders sell the Yen for the Greenback.

Next weekend is likely to start with a bang!

Just a few hours after markets open and before most western investors have opened their eyes, China will report some critical GDP growth data. As the China slowdown has become a prevalent theme in the markets recently this single data point can be a make it or break it moment.

Russia’s Real Crypto Plans

Last week, in one of our daily market updates (titled: Digital Reserves), we discussed a rumor that was circulating in the crypto community that the Central Bank of Russia may be planning to add bitcoin to its national reserves.

Well, it turns out Elina Sidorenko, the chairperson for the government committee for overseeing cryptocurrencies, has now clarified that while Russia might want to do this, it could be another 30 years before this becomes a reality.

As we correctly noted in the daily update at the time, the major setback here is that there is currently no legal framework for doing this. However, from what I understand, the idea of setting up a national CryptoRuble is being discussed among government officials and could very well happen within the next couple of years.

In any case, we do know that the government of Russia is watching the crypto space quite closely. Dimitry Medvedev was quoted just yesterday as saying that the bear market doesn’t spell the end of crypto.

Spoken like a true crypto advocate!!

Have an amazing weekend.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

eToro is a multi-asset platform which offers both investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies, as well as trading CFD assets.

Please note that CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Best regards,
Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

Connect with me on….

eToro: @MatiGreenspan Twitter: @MatiGreenspan LinkedInMatiGreenspan |Facebook:MatiGreen

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 143 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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