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Week in Review

Week in Review: EOS Goes Against the Grain, VanEck Blasts Allianz Over Crypto

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The crypto crash of the last six weeks has widened the chasm between early adopters of digital assets and those who believe they are a scam and should be outlawed. This debate is now raging within institutional circles, with the CEO of VanEck taking Allianz to task over calls to ban cryptocurrencies outright.

In terms of market dynamics, not much has changed in the last week. Bitcoin succumbed to new yearly lows Friday, capping off a relatively uneventful week of lower highs and lower lows. EOS emerged as a net gainer while bitcoin SV registered the biggest percentage drop among the majors. Since breaking off from bitcoin cash, SV has shown a propensity to move inversely with its peers.

Bitcoin Extends Slide

The bitcoin price on Thursday set new lows for the year, capping off a disappointing week that failed to generate higher bids for the leading digital currency. At its lowest point Thursday evening, BTC/USD traded around $3,204 on Coinbase Pro. Over the past seven days, bitcoin’s average price fell 2.8%, according to CoinMarketCap. Aggregate data currently show an average price of $3,300.

Accounting for 55.1% of the entire cryptocurrency market, bitcoin’s slide had a gravitational pull on altcoins and tokens. The combined market cap of all coins fell by $4 billion this week to $104.5 billion.

Long-term holders of bitcoin have been advised by Weiss Ratings that now is the best time to increase their positions. The Florida-based rating agency told its audience via Twitter that crypto is “here to stay,” and that bitcoin’s current price represents its “least speculative investment.”

EOS’ Incentive Spiral

Losses among the major cryptocurrencies this week ranged from 0.5% (Ethereum) to 28% (bitcoin SV), but EOS managed to string together a gain of 10.6% following a devastating stretch that dragged prices to $1.50. The rebound this week appears to be technical in nature after prices reached extreme oversold territory. The cryptocurrency last traded around $1.86.

As Hacked reported earlier this week, EOS’ block producers are struggling to stay alive amid the downtrend. A new survey by altShiftdev, the creator of My EOS Wallet, showed that the EOS break-even point for block producers is $4.14. While EOS can easily adjust the fee it pays producers, the reward is essentially meaningless when the coin is valued at less than $2.

Mediocre incentives and cyclical bear markets present difficulties for the EOS network. What’s more, some people are convinced that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will bring the hammer down on the project over its year-long crowdfunding campaign. This warning came from none other than Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano. More on that story can be found here: EOS Price Analysis: Cardano Founder Charles Hoskinson Warns of Regulatory Action Against EOS.

VanEck Tells Allianz to “Shut the Fuck Up”

It didn’t take long for VanEck’s chief executive to take Allianz to task over claims that the cryptocurrency industry should be outlawed. The war of words, which was reported by CCN, basically goes like this: Allianz CEO Andreas Utermann told a panel in London that regulators should “outlaw” cryptocurrencies. A few days later, VanEck’s Gabor Gurbacs told Allianz to “shut the fuck up on anything crypto or insurance” (the latter is a reference to Allianz’s poor handling of an insurance claim submitted by Gurbacs’ mother).

Gurbacs’ reaction came via Twitter, though the thread has since been deleted.

The exchange is significant when we consider the players involved. Allianz is one of Europe’s biggest asset managers. VanEck is no slouch, either, with nearly $50 billion in assets under management. Gurbacs’ company is pushing hard for a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), and is working with CBOE and SolidX to make that happen.

Gurbacs lashed out against the insurance industry as a whole. From CCN:

“Insurance companies regularly mislead investors, their disclosure systems are questionable and leave clients behind when they most needed. Insurance companies need more regulation, not crypto…The state by state regulation of insurance companies, and inconsistencies across the board, make it practically impossibly for policy buyers to understand what the heck they are buying. Buying insurance is like intending to buy bread but getting horse-shit instead.”

Interestingly enough, the blockchain revolution is proposing to upend the way insurance companies do business. It’ll be interesting to see how firms like Allianz react.

The Week Ahead

December is shaping up to be another disappointing month for cryptocurrencies. Investors in search of a silver lining may take solace in knowing that the worst of the downtrend appears to be over. This doesn’t mean new lows aren’t over the horizon; it simply means that weekly declines of 30% are less likely now that bitcoin is testing a critical long-term support.

There’s no denying that the recent skid is positively correlated with the hard fork of bitcoin cash on Nov. 15 (after all, prices began to plunge on the eve of the highly anticipated event). However, the longer we have been able to evaluate the trend, the more apparent it has become that the capitulation was triggered by multiple technical selloffs after bitcoin fell below $6,000 – a critical support that represents the long-term breakeven price for miners. With this view in mind, the outlook for the remainder of the year remains overwhelmingly bearish, and investors shouldn’t add to their positions until a definitive bottom has been reached.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 740 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Week in Review

Weekly Recap: Crypto Winter Grows Colder; Trump Goes Prime-Time

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Weeks of steady progress in the cryptocurrency market unraveled on Thursday, as bitcoin headed for its worst drop since November. Bitcoin’s quick and sudden collapse triggered a market-wide correction, with the likes of Ethereum, bitcoin cash and Litecoin heading for double-digit declines.

Stock markets traded in the opposite direction of cryptocurrencies thanks to renewed optimism that the United States and China will reach a new trade agreement. Both sides met for longer than expected this week, highlighting progress on a number of important issues.

Crypto Markets Crumble

The cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp and sudden pullback on Thursday after bitcoin plunged 5% in less than an hour. The leading digital currency continues to exert a gravitational pull on the broader market, which exposed assets like Ethereum, XRP, bitcoin cash and others to heavy selling pressure.

Prior to the selloff, bitcoin had successfully regained $4,000, leading the broader crypto market cap north of $138 billion. It has since fallen to $123.5 billion. There was no immediate catalyst for the drop, which likely means technical trading was the biggest factor.

Most major assets are headed for weekly losses, with Ethereum and bitcoin cash experiencing the biggest percentage drop. Tron is still on track for a weekly gain of around 26% after prices peaked at five-month highs earlier in the week. Read: Tron Surges to Five-Month High as BitTorrent Token Enters Circulation.

Ethereum Hard Fork

After nearly doubling in price over a three-week stretch, Ethereum dropped more than 14% on Thursday. As a result, ether dropped back to third spot in the crypto market ranking, with XRP returning to no. 2.

After Doubling in Price, Ethereum Faces Inevitable Correction Ahead of Big Upgrade

Ethereum had enjoyed strong momentum ahead of a highly-anticipated technical upgrade. Constantinople is scheduled to go live between Jan. 14-18, and will bring much needed upgrades to the network. The hard fork created a sense of urgency for investors and miners, who will see their block reward lowered to 2 ETH from the current rate of 3 ETH. The upgrade will be hardly noticeable to average users but is considered an essential component of the development road map, including future improvements to scalability.

Stock Recovery Deepens

U.S. stocks rose sharply this week, with the major indexes building on a recovery that began in earnest on Boxing Day. The S&P 500 Index is in the midst of its strongest two-week stretch since 2011, having rebounded 10% over that period.

Markets were propelled higher last Friday by better than expected nonfarm payrolls numbers. This week, positive developments around U.S.-China trade negotiations were among the biggest catalysts. Trade delegates from both countries met in Beijing this week, where they ironed out important details concerning U.S. commodity purchases and access to mainland China markets.

Investors are gearing up for a potentially volatile earnings season now that Apple has lowered its guidance on Q4 sales. Corporate reporting season will begin later this month.

Trump Goes Prime-Time

President Donald Trump delivered his first Oval Office address on Tuesday, where he urged Americans to support his fight for increased border protection. The president described the situation on the U.S.-Mexico border as a “humanitarian crisis” that needs to be resolved immediately. Read: President Trump Makes His Case for a Border Wall as Economy Hangs in the Balance.

Trump and congressional Democrats remain locked in a bitter dispute over a proposed border wall that will cost $6 billion. Democrats’ refusal to approve the funding has blocked a new budget from being formed and caused several government agencies to shut down. As many as 800,000 federal workers lost their first full paycheck on Friday as the impasse continued.

The latest talks between Trump and Democrats broke down on Wednesday after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said they would refuse to grant wall funding even if government reopened.

The Week Ahead

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history will certainly have ramifications on Wall Street unless Democrats and Republicans are able to reach a solution shortly. There’s already signs that the federal shutdown is starting to make investors anxious, which could put additional pressure on the Trump administration to reach a compromise.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin will look to defend a critical support level over the weekend. Its ability to hold $3,500 could dictate whether the market enters full-blown capitulation mode or recovery. The hard fork of Ethereum will also be of interest to crypto traders looking to evaluate ether’s technical progress.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 740 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Week in Review

Weekly Recap: Crypto New Year Begins Quietly as Apple Roils Traditional Markets

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Crypto markets opened 2019 on a soft note, as bitcoin and the major altcoins saw more stable trading ranges following weeks of volatility. Ethereum emerged as the week’s biggest gainer following a 16% surge in price, which allowed it to reclaim the second spot from XRP in the market-cap ranking.

In traditional markets, Apple’s admission that it may have a big China problem wreaked havoc on stock prices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging more than 600 points in a single day of trade. Stocks remain highly vulnerable to extreme swings, a trend that is expected to continue for the duration of the first quarter.

Cryptos Stabilize

The cryptocurrency market showed greater upside potential this week, as bitcoin clawed back above $4,000 on multiple occasions and Tron showed signs of a bullish breakout. However, on balance, the market is little changed compared with last week. Since peaking near $136 billion on Wednesday, the cryptocurrency market capitalization has drifted back below $130 billion.

Further reading: Projects Like Tron are “Just Garbage,” Says Jed McCaleb; TRX Price Ticks Higher on New Year’s Day.

Bitcoin is once again benefiting from positive sentiment tied to Intercontinental Exchange’s forthcoming BTC futures market. Unlike CBOE and CME, the Bakkt trading platform will offer physically settled bitcoin futures, a move that many in the blockchain community believe could boost institutional adoption of digital assets.

Bitcoin on Track for Narrow Weekly Gain as Outlook Brightens; Breakout Imminent?

Bitcoin is currently trading slightly above $3,800 and is down less than 1% for the week. Percentage-wise, bitcoin SV (BSV) was the worst performer among the majors this week, falling 4%.

Ethereum Pulls Ahead

Ethereum pulled ahead of the pack this week, climbing 16% to overtake XRP for second spot in the market-cap rankings. XRP, which fell nearly 3% this week, held the no. 2 spot for the better part of six weeks.

At the time of writing, ether’s price was valued just above $150 for a total market value of $15.5 billion. The so-called developer’s cryptocurrency peaked near $16.3 billion on Wednesday as the price approached $160.

For the first time in months, Ethereum is benefiting from positive news flow ahead of the highly anticipated Constantinople upgrade. The soft fork, which is scheduled to take place Jan. 16, will introduce much needed upgrades to the protocol. It will also lower the block reward for mining ETH, thereby boosting demand for the digital currency. Read more: Ethereum Flips XRP for Second Spot in Crypto Market Ranking Following 12% Gain.

Apple’s Ominous Warning

Apple has finally admitted that it might have a big China problem. On Wednesday, CEO Tim Cook issued a letter to investors warning of an unexpected downturn in revenue for the holiday quarter. It was the iPhone maker’s first revenue cut in 15 years and couldn’t come at a worse time.

The company already faces an uphill battle in an overly saturated Chinese market where low-cost handhelds are taking away market share. As we pointed out on CCN, global smartphone sales likely fell in 2018 and while growth is expected to pick up, it won’t be more than single digits.

Apple’s stock price tanked nearly 10% on Thursday, dragging the company’s market cap below $700 billion. The company’s value peaked north of $1 trillion last year. The selloff in AAPL shares had a noticeable impact on Wall Street, dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower by 660 points. Markets recovered sharply on Friday and are on track for a solid weekly gain.

The Week Ahead

Crypto markets are still in a long-term downtrend, but optimism about the future is quietly growing after bitcoin celebrated the ten-year anniversary of its Genesis Block. Although technical trading continues to dominate prices, a shift to fundamentals is likely in the coming weeks as investors prepare for the launch of Bakkt, the first physically-settled bitcoin futures market.

In terms of traditional assets, the fallout from Apple’s announcement will continue to resonate next week as FAANG stocks continue to struggle. A resolution to the partial U.S. government shutdown, now in its second week, will also be in focus.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 740 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Analysis

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Brexit Has a “50-50” chance – Top UK Cabinet Minister

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  • UK International Trade Secretary, Liam Fox, says that Brexit has a “50-50” chance.
  • GBP/USD remains vulnerable to downside risks, given the lack of political progress.

UK Brexit worries remain at elevated levels, while the British ministers continue to enjoy their ‘Christmas recess’. Unfortunately, the talk of the UK EU Membership referendum, is very much going to be carried well into a third year.

Brexit Has a “50-50” Chance

In terms of the latest commentary, the international trade secretary, Liam Fox, suggested that Brexit now has a “50-50” chance. The possibility that the UK will not be leaving the EU on 29 March, should the MPs reject Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

UK members of parliament will be due to vote on the Prime Minister’s withdrawal agreement in January. The deadline of UK scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March is drawing ever closer, while being very much up in the air.

This vote was initially scheduled for 11th December, however a big loss of confidence for Theresa May as she was forced to make a decision and postpone it. She did this as it became clear there was going to be defeat at quite a large margin.

The Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, continues to pile on the pressure, urging Mrs May to cut short MPs’ Christmas break. He is calling for this to allow for an earlier vote, as they are not due back in the Commons until 7th January.

Technical Review GBP/USD

GBP/USD daily chart. Price action has been stuck within a 1 cent range, 1.26-1.27. It remains vulnerable to downside risks.

Over the last two weeks, there has been little in terms of major price movement for GBP/USD. This not being surprising of course, given the festive period and market closures. Volumes are expected to gradually pick up this week, from 2nd January, as market participants return from their holidays. In terms of real full swing, this may not be anticipated until the second week of January.

GBP/USD has been moving within a tight range of 1.26-1.27 price range. Given there will be much uncertainty heading into the UK ministers return and the vote, it wouldn’t be surprising to see GBP on the back foot. As seen in the back end of this year, GBP is extremely sensitive to any Brexit updates.

Breakout and Retest of Rising Wedge

GBP/USD 4-hour chart. Price action has broken out and retested a rising wedge pattern.

Aside from the bearish fundamentals, via the 4-hour chart view, GBP/USD had been moving within a rising wedge pattern. The formation of this began on 11th December, to then be breached by the bears on 26th December. A retest of that pattern was seen on 28th December, with the lower trend line rejecting a break back through.

Should the bears capitalize on the above-detailed, then a retest of the December low area may be seen. This can be observed sub-1.25, the low printed on 11th December, down at 1.2480. A breach of this could be very punishing, potentially inviting a free-fall. The direction however will be helped on from the latest developments on Brexit, for now they remain bearish.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 110 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

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