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Week in Review

Week in Review: Carnage in the Crypto Markets as Stability Returns to Wall Street 

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It was another volatile week for the crytpo markets, with prices crashing 22% on a combination of regulatory fears and cyber security issues involving one of the world’s biggest digital currency exchanges. A prominent bitcoin whale in Tokyo has also liquidated hundreds of millions of dollars worth of BTC on behalf of Mt Gox creditors, a process that will intensify in coming months with roughly $1.9 billion still on the books.

Equities outperformed this week, although investor sentiment took a major hit after President Trump signed an order that taxes steel and aluminum imports at a hefty price. The outlook on stocks may deteriorate before it improves now that the Federal Reserve is poised to raise interest rates in less than two weeks.

Cryptocurrencies Plunge in Dramatic Week of Trade

Cryptocurrencies experienced a dramatic fall this week, as rumors of a cyber breach at Binance triggered a large outflow from the market. Though Binance attempted to quell the rumors, the market continued lower after the SEC released a statement that digital asset exchanges must register with the agency. The statement applies to digital assets that are considered securities.

Fear, uncertainty and doubt continued to linger on news that a prominent bitcoin whale by the name of Nobuaki Kobayashi was offloading hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of BTC on behalf of Mt Gox creditors.

By the end of Friday’s session, the global cryptocurrency market was valued at just $369 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. Seven days ago, the market was worth as much as $465 billion.

All the major coins suffered huge losses this week, with bitcoin hitting a low of around $8,400 on Friday. Ethereum plunged below $700, while Ripple XRP bottomed at $0.73.

Stocks Surge After ‘Perfect’ Jobs Report

A bullish jobs report sent U.S. stocks surging Friday, with the Nasdaq recording its first record high in six weeks. The technology-driven index surged 1.8% to 7,560.81.

The benchmark S&P 500 Index rose 1.7% to 2,786.57, with ten of 11 sectors contributing to the rally.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 440.53 points, or 1.8%, to 25,335.74.

A measure of implied volatility known as the CBOE VIX declined sharply on Friday to finish lower for the week. Wall Street’s favorite “fear index” settled at in the mid-14s, the lowest since Feb. 1.

Friday’s rally was triggered by a bullish nonfarm payrolls report that showed the addition of 313,000 jobs for February, the highest in one-and-a-half years. Analysts in a median forecast called for a gain of 200,000.

The jobless rate held at 4.1%, the lowest since 2000. Average hourly earnings grew just 0.1% from the previous month and 2.6% annually.

Investors may recall that it was a nonfarm payrolls report that triggered last month’s dramatic reversal for stocks. The January data recorded a 2.9% annual surge in wage inflation, which was the highest in over eight years, prompting investors to price in an imminent rate hike by the Fed.

Upbeat employment figures helped to counteract fears of an imminent trade war between the United States and its allies after President Trump signed an order to move ahead with planned tariffs on steel and aluminum. The order, which was signed Thursday, will see steel and aluminum imports taxed at 25% and 10%, respectively.

The Week Ahead

Cryptocurrencies are under pressure heading into the weekend, as investors continue to weigh the market’s regulatory outlook. In the eyes of Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, the selloff in the market was overdone given that brokers still have many options in dealing with the SEC’s new provisions.

Garlinghouse said that, in the context of Wednesday’s statement, “I hear some in crypto talk about the current ‘regulatory uncertainty.’ What’s uncertain? SEC’s statements have been consistent and clear. ‘Regulatory uncertainty” is just a euphemism for ‘we wish we could ignore SEC regulations.’”

It remains to be seen whether calmer heads prevail. Price action over the next seven days could provide clues about whether investors continue in the direction of FUD or rationality.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 648 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Week in Review

Week in Review: The Two Tales of Volatility

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When it comes to volatility, stocks and cryptocurrencies diverged wildly this week. On the equities front, major selloffs in China and Wall Street were followed by equally large single-day rallies, as investors bought on the dip. For cryptocurrencies, the picture was largely unchanged for most of the week, as bitcoin and the broader market hovered near break-even.

Cryptos Stabilize

Despite experiencing a minor dip on Friday, cryptocurrency prices have held within a remarkably narrow range over the past five days. The cryptocurrency market capitalization, which accounts for all digital assets including bitcoin, has hovered around $210-$212 billion for much of the week. On Friday, the market dipped to around $207 billion as bitcoin fell below $6,500.

Tether on Monday induced heavy volatility in the market as traders cut ties to the controversial stablecoin. The value of USDT not only lost its peg to the dollar, it briefly fell below $0.90. A collapsing USDT triggered a sharp spike in the value of bitcoin, with major exchanges like Bitfinex reporting a large premium on BTC. That’s because Bitfinex, among others, processes a much larger volume of BTC/USDT trades.

Bitcoin’s volatility index, which tracks daily fluctuations in the digital currency’s opening price, is hovering below 1.9% over the last 30 days. Bitcoin’s average fluctuations over the last 120 days are 2.91%, according to bitvol.info.

China Takes the Plunge

Chinese equities resumed their massive selloff this week, as a U.S.-led trade war continued to roil mainland markets. An attempt by the People’s Bank of China to ease capital controls was also met by skepticism by investors who remain critical of the country’s long-term growth outlook.

As of Thursday, China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was down a staggering 12% for the month of October. The index rebounded sharply on Friday, gaining 2.6%, as government officials offered soothing comments about the health of the economy.

The Chinese yuan fell to nearly two-year lows this week after the U.S. Treasury refrained from labelling the country a “currency” manipulator in its biannual report. The Trump administration has called out China for undercutting the yuan as a means of gaining unfair trading advantage over its peers.

Pressure on Saudi Builds

Saudi Arabia is in the hot seat after a known dissident journalist was reportedly drugged, tortured and killed at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. Jamal Khashoggi, the journalist in question, was last seen entering the consulate on Oct. 2.

U.S. President Donald Trump has moved closer to acknowledging Riyadh’s role in the disappearance of Khashoggi amid new evidence indicting Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. A source familiar with the investigation has told CNN that Saudi Arabia’s first secretary was involved in planning the attack.

The Saudis have denied any involvement in Khashoggi’s disappearance but are prepared to admit that he was killed in the consulate. Earlier this week, Riyadh implicitly threatened to use oil as a weapon should Western powers pursue sanctions against it.

The Week Ahead

The crypto bulls failed to show up after Monday’s sudden accumulation, a sign that bear-market conditions are likely to persist for a while longer. A lack of trading catalysts, combined with negative sentiment already present in the market, are clear signals that prices will remain subdued as we head into the final week of October.

The outlook on equities is much more mixed, as investors weigh a new batch of corporate earnings against a backdrop of political and trade-related concerns. It also remains to be seen whether the Trump administration will take decisive action against the Saudis should conclusive evidence link the government to Khashoggi’s disappearance.

On the data front, the U.S. government will release preliminary third-quarter GDP data next Friday. The world’s largest economy is said to have expanded 3.9% between July and September, according to the latest Atlanta Fed GDP Tracker.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 648 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Week in Review

Week in Review: Red October – Equities, Cryptos Take the Plunge

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Global equity markets sold off sharply this week, as rising bond yields and a weaker growth outlook rattled investors’ appetite for riskier assets. The shift to risk-off mode benefited gold but not cryptocurrencies, as the latter market booked an 11-figure plunge on Thursday.

China was the center of the storm this week as investors returned from Golden Week celebrations to disappointing economic data, escalating trade tensions and an insufficient response from central bank policy.

Bull Market in Jeopardy

After recording their best quarter in five years, U.S. stocks have experienced multiple steep declines to start October. This culminated on Wednesday and Thursday with a 1,300-point plunge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, marking the worst two-day stretch since February. The broader S&P 500 Index also fell to more than three-month lows, which triggered a sharp rise in volatility.

The CBOE VIX, Wall Street’s preferred measure of investor anxiety, spiked above 26 this week en route to its highest level in six months. The so-called fear gauge tracks inversely with S&P 500 Index futures roughly 75% of the time.

Wall Street’s dramatic declines triggered even bigger losses for China’s benchmark indexes, which on Thursday plunged to multi-year lows. The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a modest rally on Friday but still ended the week with a loss of 7.6%. Markets in Europe, Japan, Canada and Australia also ended firmly lower.

IMF Downgrades Outlook

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its outlook on global growth, citing rising import tariffs as a primary concern. The Washington-based lending institution lowered its outlook on global, Chinese and U.S. economic growth by 0.2 percentage point each for 2019. At 6.2%, China’s expansion is forecast to be the weakest since 1990.

A tit-for-tat trade war with the United States only exacerbates China’s broad economic slowdown, which began several years ago when Beijing embarked on a slow transition away from smokestack industries toward consumption. Although Beijing has responded to the Trump administration’s tariff policy, it will not be able to match duties on a dollar-for-dollar basis.

As Hacked reported Thursday, President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are scheduled to hold high-level trade talks at the upcoming Group of 20 summit in November. Both sides were planning in-depth negotiations last month before the U.S. enacted a new round of tariffs targeting $200 billion of Chinese goods.

Cryptocurrencies Fall but Bitcoin Maintains Support

After weeks of relative calm, cryptocurrencies experienced a brisk selloff Thursday. More than $16 billion was wiped from the combined market capitalization with bitcoin, Ethereum and other major assets leading the declines.

There was no immediate catalyst for the sudden reversal, though the pattern of quick declines following relative calm have been observed before. Cryptocurrencies are struggling to make new technical breakthroughs despite improving fundamentals.

Despite the loss, bitcoin continues to defend $6,000 – a critical level that is commonly associated with the cost of mining the virtual currency. The 6% drop on Thursday dragged prices to the low $6,200 region before recovering 24 hours later.

Week-on-week, the cryptocurrency market cap is down roughly $18 billion. However, trading volumes are up slightly.

The Week Ahead

All eyes will be on government bond yields next week as investors continue to evaluate the impact of rising interest rates on the market. Despite a sharp drop mid-week, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S Treasury note continues to show upside potential. According to Jeffrey Gundlach, the so-called “bond king,” the benchmark yield could make it to 3.6% in the short term.

“If you look at the charts and you look at the way the market’s behaving and you think about the trends that are underneath the bond market, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the 30-year go to 4% before this move of the breakout above 3.25 percent is over,” Gundlach told CNBC Thursday.

Until now, cryptocurrencies like bitcoin have not benefited from safe-haven demand amid the broad market downturn. It remains to be seen whether mainstream investors will find comfort in bitcoin’s status as a non-correlated asset should bond yields continue to pressure stocks.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 648 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Week in Review

Week in Review: NAFTA 2.0, Bond Yields and ErisX

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Traditional markets stole the headlines this week, as Canada, Mexico and the United States wrapped up a new free-trade agreement. Surging bond yields pressured stock markets, leading to the biggest one-day selloff on Wall Street since late June. In crypto news, Ripple Labs concluded a successful Swell conference with the launch of a new xRapid product and TD Ameritrade announced it was backing a new regulated cryptocurrency exchange.

NAFTA 2.0

Canada and the United States ended a 13-month impasse late Sunday by reaching a new free-trade agreement ahead of a self-imposed deadline. The new United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) rebalances continental trade after more than two decades of NAFTA rule.

By striking a deal, Canada ensures that more than one-fifth of its gross domestic product (GDP) isn’t compromised by the loss of tariff-free access to the United States. In exchange for accommodations on auto tariffs and dispute resolution, Canada offered American farmers greater access to the nation’s highly protected dairy industry.

U.S. President Donald Trump called the new agreement a “historic transaction” and praised leaders on both sides of the border for getting it done. By striking a deal by Sept. 30, negotiators gave Mexico’s current president enough time to sign it into law before leaving office in November.

Surging Bond Yields

U.S. government bond yields set multiyear highs this week as investors continued to unload U.S. Treasuries at an accelerated pace. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note crossed 3.20% on Thursday, the highest since 2011. The yield on short-term notes peaked at ten-year highs. Bond yields rise when prices fall.

The selloff in U.S. government debt comes amid heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates at an aggressive pace. The U.S. economy is riding a tailwind of consumer optimism, corporate tax cuts and declining unemployment with GDP on track for another blowout quarter.

Yield watchers should keep tabs on interest rate expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting. Officials are expected to hike rates again in their final meeting of the year.

Bitcoin Volatility Declines

Bitcoin’s price volatility declined this week to the lowest level in 15 months, underscoring tepid trading conditions in the cryptocurrency market. The bitcoin volatility index, which monitors BTC’s price fluctuations over time using the standard deviation of daily open prices, declined to 2.52% on Wednesday compared with 30 days ago.

Declining volatility is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it shores up confidence among investors that bitcoin’s market is maturing after years of dramatic price swings. On the other hand, it makes massive price rallies like the ones we saw in 2017 less likely. As such, billionaire investor Mike Novogratz believes bitcoin is unlikely to crack $9,000 this year.

The bitcoin price saw highs near $6,650 on Thursday but has since fallen back toward the $6,550-$6,600 range. The combined capitalization of all cryptocurrencies hovered around $220 billion all week.

TD Ameritrade Backs Regulated Crypto Exchange

One of America’s largest retail brokers has announced plans to invest in an up-and-coming cryptocurrency exchange that will be fully regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). TD Ameritrade, which boasts 11 million users and $1.2 trillion in assets under management, has made a strategic investment in ErisX, a platform that will offer spot crypto and futures trading.

“We listened to our customers – what we continued to hear was that they wanted access to trade digital currency products,” JB Mackenzie, managing director, said in an interview with CNBC.

ErisX provides retail stock and ETF traders access to regulated cryptocurrency markets, potentially spearheading wider adoption of digital assets.

The Week Ahead

Crypto markets have stabilized following a rocky month of September, but declining trade volumes and a lack of new buyers continue to limit upside. Although fundamental developments continue to point to wider mainstream acceptance of digital assets, this hasn’t translated into higher prices.

Nevertheless, optimism over Ripple’s commercialization efforts and chatter over the upcoming Bakkt trading platform could add a positive spin to tepid market conditions. It remains to be seen whether this will generate sustained interest among buyers.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 648 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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