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Valuing Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain Applications

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Arguably the most interesting financial trend of 2017 is the spreading of cryptocurrencies, especially in the Ethereum ecosystem. With the ICO boom of this year, a lot of different business models have been connected to tokens or blockchains of their own. This brings up several questions in the mind value-conscious investors, as given the special properties of these coins, and especially considering the various distribution and usage schemes of the tokens, valuing them is tricky, to say the least.

Whether or not we are in a bubble currently is a layered question, as we are definitely in a huge speculative wave that will end badly for several coins, but the segment is in the early phase of adoption, and the market as a whole will likely multiply in the coming years.

As I concluded in my comparison with the Dot-Com bubble, selective investing in the ICO-boom is vital for long-term investors. To make things more complicated, traditional valuation models generally fail with cryptocurrencies, because of the hybrid stock-commodity properties of them and the novelty of the technology, coupled with the questions regarding the future usage patterns.

Is it possible to set up a framework to analyze all the different business models and value the connected coins? Or is it possible to, at least, determine hard guidelines to follow when selecting the coins to hold or forget? I will answer that question below and in the coming second part of the article.

Where is the Value Coming From?

Valuing Cryptocurrencies

For a traditional analyst, the most interesting question is the source of the value of the tokens. There are several crucial hurdles to clear for a token to be considered valuable on the long-run. Why? Firstly, because as opposed to stocks, holding a token doesn’t give you ownership in the company conducting the ICO, thus the success of the company doesn’t directly increase the value of the coin.

Also, the fact that the blockchain technology and all the main patents and methods are freely available to the public means that an infinite number of tokens and blockchains can be created with no legal hurdle, possibly making the competition fierce, decimating demand for the services behind the token and in turn the token itself.

Another problem with the current ICOs is that even if the idea behind the company is valid, and the demand for the token is organic (we will get back to this soon), there is no guarantee that the execution of the idea won’t be obsolete in a matter of months, let alone years. This is one of the main reasons that a lot of Dot-Com companies failed; it’s nice to be a revolutionary player, but more often than not, markets are ruled by the second or third generation of companies that annihilate the pioneers of a technology, leaving only the nostalgy behind.

Non-Ownership Sources of Value

Of course, besides ownership (which is non-existent in most of the current models) there are several ways that the token can acquire value. The most important, in my opinion, is the organic demand for them, that, together with the inherently limited supply can create an imbalance between demand and supply, driving the price of the “digital commodity” higher.

For the holders of the tokens, a lot of projects also deploy some kind of fixed or variable “rent” or “dividend” (yikes). I am, maybe too much so, skeptical regarding these premiums, as they present an extra cost somewhere in the ecosystem that will create immense incentives to create cheaper “rent-free” alternatives for the given business. So, the existence of such a system, while it might be intriguing, in my opinion, could be the exact reason why that the business will fail. But there is a catch; if a model is strong enough to survive and dominate a, sometimes completely new niche, it could be able to sustain these premiums and give a huge boost to the value of the token. But what will set these winners apart from the rest?

Network Effects

Valuing Cryptocurrencies using network effects

To answer that question, we have to note that both of the above sources of value are based strongly on the network effects. This, sometimes elusive, term is used to describe why in some industries the winner takes all (or at least most of the profits), and some companies enjoy a “natural” monopolistic position.

Think Facebook for social networks, Microsoft for OSs, or a landline phone company in the past. Adding more users to such networks not only decreases the cost of operation per user but actually increases the utility that all (yes, this is a huge simplification here, you geeks out there) users enjoy through the network. Translating that to products according to this great summary:

A product displays positive network effects when more usage of the product by any user increases the product’s value for other users (and sometimes all users)

This makes these networks multiple times more valuable than other ecosystems that don’t sport sustainable network effects. Understanding these effects is very important for judging the future demand for blockchain applications and tokens, and not only because it’s a widely used buzzword in whitepapers, sometimes to blur and ridicule any and every concern regarding the business model. But before we take a closer look at network effects, let’s see the logic behind my valuation approach.

The Logic of Determining The Value of Applications and Tokens

We have to stress that this is only a basic filter, but one that has great heuristical value to move forward in the analysis. According to Fortune:

Jeff Garzik, a leading figure in the blockchain community who runs a consultancy called Bloq, sees ICOs as “transformative” but remains wary. “Ninety-nine percent of these ICOs will be garbage,” he says. “It’s like penny stocks but with less regulation.”

While the 99% might be a bit rough, it is safe to say that most of the current ICOs will end up left behind, while the survivors will multiply several times in value and create the infrastructure for a new crop of businesses that will thrive in the blossoming industry. Still, investors’ primary job in such a nascent segment is to efficiently filter out obvious and less obvious scams, losers, and laggards. For that, the first step is to really understand what’s driving the revolution in the first place.

The Most Important Advantages of the Blockchain Technology

In order to create a framework for valuing cryptocurrencies, we have to be, at least vaguely, aware of the current and possible use cases of the technology. The novelty of the tech makes this very hard and in some cases impossible, but if we keep track of the main advantages of the blockchain we can identify projects and business models that are built upon the real strength of the technology rather than on the hype.

  • Permanent and verified transaction records
  • Simplified databases and tracking functionalities
  • Lower transaction costs and times
  • Security of a decentralized and redundant system
  • Peer-to-peer transmissions
  • Smart-contract logic: rule-based business models and ecosystems

Matching these virtues with the business models is only the first step; while you can identify potential winners, aligning with the strength of the technology doesn’t mean that a venture will be a long-term winner, not to mention the exact “valuation” of the token. These advantages will also take effect in several different levels of the economy, from private, limited user-base blockchains to global transformational systems that might be used by the majority of the citizens of the world. You can see a model of adoption with examples below from the great article of Marco Iansiti and Karim Lakhani.

The Adoption Cycle’s Role in Valuing Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain Applications

While that sounds chilling and revolutionary, there is an investment problem here; even if you went back to the 80’s with the knowledge about Google, you couldn’t have directly invested in the company, as not only the founders of the firm were in kindergarten, the infrastructure that the business was based was non-existent. So are we in the 80’s of the blockchain technology? Well, in a way yes, global transformational adoption will likely take at least another decade. That said, my gut feeling is that this adoption cycle, although it will resemble the Internet’s will provide huge surprises; both positive and negative ones.

The Looming Coin-Regulation Storm

It’s hard to overstate the regulatory hurdles that the segment will soon face. The ICOs legal framework is shaky, to say the least, and somehow regulators will try to curb the boom and divert in into a more traditional direction. And in a lot of ways, that would be good for investors as well. A more regulated market would be beneficial in avoiding scams, while letting the currently left-out investors participate in the rise of the new industry.

For the current crop of coins, this is probably the biggest risks out there, as whole ICOs could be deemed illegal, leaving holders of the tokens out in the cold, or facing an uncertain transition into another legal framework that would likely push the value of the ventures and the tokens down.

In the next part of the article, I will take a look at this and other risks that blockchains and systems built upon them face. I will also set-up actionable guidelines to weigh the advantages and the risks of certain applications and cryptocurrencies while forecasting the actual demand for the service and the attached token. To make it more robust, I will integrate some of the traditional valuation methods as well.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 394 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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12 Comments

12 Comments

  1. icm_24

    July 12, 2017 at 3:49 pm

    can’t wait for the rest. the current crypto market is really depressing and I could use some light at the end of this deep dark tunnel.

  2. Chris G

    July 12, 2017 at 4:07 pm

    In spite of the price crash in Ethereum, I def. still see plenty of potential applied value in that coin. I have a solid long-term position, and set up a modest mining operation to hedge volatility. I’m confident that my equipment investment will be covered in a reasonable time-frame, and am viewing Ethereum within a 3-5 year investment window.

    My largest long-term position is in Litecoin, I really think the Litecoin development team is ahead of the curve. Particularly in terms of scalability confounds, my money is on Litecoin.

  3. pradz

    July 12, 2017 at 5:06 pm

    This article came right out of the caution cauldron where excitement was previously prepped. It pinches the excitement out of cryptocurrencies and gives the reader less legroom(in emotion) for those wanting to really go all out, given the current uncertainty in the market.

    But the 10 year universal adoption is almost possible, maybe even faster, since the infrastructure is in place and we’re still figuring out the networking part, while the answer might lie within the mind of a kindergartner who could well go on to create a bigger tech that gobbles up alt coins like m&m’s.

    Nice piece Mate Cser, wonder where you’ll be in 2027 rewinding all your predictions that went right and those that didn’t. One things’ for sure – Interesting times ahead.

    • Mate Cser

      July 12, 2017 at 5:20 pm

      Hi Pradz,

      I am as excited as ever for the segment, I truly believe blockchain tech is huge thing for productivity growth, which is the key for the coming demographic “autumn”. I have my money in the sector, mostly in BTC and ETH with a few smaller bets elsewhere.

      That said, I am not a believer in predicting the future, just probabilites, and placing careful investments according to them, that’s the point of these articles.

      I hope to be here in 2027,discussing our investments in hindsight. That’s real fun 🙂

    • Chris G

      July 12, 2017 at 7:00 pm

      I particularly like the m&m metaphor *chuckle* …

  4. Chris G

    July 12, 2017 at 8:08 pm

    Nice to see a little ethereum bounce today – wake me up when we hit $1000 🙂 …

    • gafty

      July 12, 2017 at 11:44 pm

      1000 at the end of the year will be for sure!

      • Chris G

        July 13, 2017 at 2:38 pm

        that’d sure be nice 😉

  5. csinkey

    July 13, 2017 at 2:05 am

    Mate Czar – would you share your “smaller bets”? I’m REALLY interested to see which ones you thought were worth taking a bet on given the above thinking

  6. P. H. Madore

    July 24, 2017 at 12:06 am

    “For the holders of the tokens, a lot of projects also deploy some kind of fixed or variable “rent” or “dividend” (yikes). I am, maybe too much so, skeptical regarding these premiums, as they present an extra cost somewhere in the ecosystem that will create immense incentives to create cheaper “rent-free” alternatives for the given business. So, the existence of such a system, while it might be intriguing, in my opinion, could be the exact reason why that the business will fail. But there is a catch; if a model is strong enough to survive and dominate a, sometimes completely new niche, it could be able to sustain these premiums and give a huge boost to the value of the token. But what will set these winners apart from the rest?”

    If the payment is fixed and not dependent on the actual revenues of the firm in question, of course issuing p2p shares through tokenization is a mistake. However, if the dividend payment — part of the proceeds intended to keep the network afloat, not bloated costs — is built into the business model and the figure is reasonable, it’s more of a shareholder + situation. Not only do you have a stake in the firm, but you have premium access to its innards, and, as you mention, limited supply makes you the holder of a potentially even more valuable commodity. Yes, we’ve seen that proof of stake and interest rates do encourage people to horde, but this is not a problem in a supply-demand ecosystem. The cost of the services simply goes up, and the actual numerical derivative payments go down while their value goes up. As such, I think this is actually a feature we need to see more of. But it’s not the main fix that we need to see.

    The main fix that would improve ICOs in our era would be one in which they do not issue themselves any shares at all. Instead, they sell as many tokens as they wish, and buy back as much stake in the company as they wish to have from the token holders. This would mitigate so many problems it’s hard to pretend I need to justify the notion. If your goal is not to hold 100% of the company, but merely to increase its value, buying in at post-ICO rates should be no problem for you, especially since you have the most influence over what goes right and goes wrong — and if the market actually kills you, you’re a rarity. This burgeoning industry can support 100 of any given thing if all 100 are operated correctly. Unfortunately only 2 or 3 ever will be.

  7. Mate Cser

    July 24, 2017 at 7:54 am

    Thanks Paul for the addition! I still feel that this dividend model, while we agree that it’s good for the “shareholder”, is only viable if you already have a strong market position or a competitive advantage in providing the actual service that justifies the extra cost for the users.

    In a blossoming industry, you won’t see huge profits in the growth phase, and the companies have to pour everything into increasing their market share. So, if I have two similar businesses with the only difference being the dividend, I would choose the dividend-less company without a question. I would actually like to see them leveraging growth, not distributing profits; a good business should have a large ROI, why would they give back valuable capital when they see growth ahead? For me, that’s a suspicious sign.

    You are right that the industry can support 100 of any given thing, but still, there is one Facebook, Google, Microsoft… That’s where network effects come in strongly, and fierce competition is guaranteed for the leadership. I want to hold the winners, the really efficient ones (Google vs Yahoo to simplify it). And to be honest, I don’t care too much about the bad reputation of ICOs, market cycles, or bubbles as an investor, if you can choose the real winners with a good percentage and stick to them, you will be rewarded. Wait for a big correction and buy, simple as that.

    I believe that in itself issuing shares or a share-token hybrid of some sorts is not a bad thing. It’s a simple way to distribute the increase in valuation, but of course, your solution is basically the same.

  8. febrocas

    September 12, 2017 at 12:07 am

    Doesn’t seem so terrible after all.

    “According to the human resources consulting firm Challenger Gray & Christmas Inc., some 22,267 dot.com job cuts have been announced since December 1999, when the firm began tracking such data. Of the 274 companies tracked from December 1999 through October 2000, 44 of them — or 16 percent of the total — have since failed. Still, people fired from dot.coms should have no problem finding another job, said John Challenger, the company’s CEO.”

    http://money.cnn.com/2000/11/09/technology/overview/

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Altcoins

Crypto Market Flash-Dips 12%; Bitcoin Price Hits New Yearly Low as ETH, TRX Bleed Out

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The global cryptocurrency segment experienced a market-wide sell-off on Wednesday afternoon, losing $25 billion, or 12% of the overall market cap.

The bulk of the losses struck in a brief one-hour window, between 15:30 and 16:30 UTC. The sudden flash dip came as a surprise to say the least, and followed this morning’s $7.5 billion sell-off which, without the benefit of foresight, seemed significant at the time.

Just When We Thought We Were Out…

Now the altcoin setup looks radically different, with several coins threatening the yearly lows of August-September once again following an entire quarter of recovery.

All of Bitcoin Cash’s recent gains have disappeared, with BCH sinking 30% in the last week alone, and close to 20% in the last day. The same pattern persists among all the recent market growers, as yet another great correction unfolds.

BTC/USD Hits 13-Month Lows

Bitcoin did however strike new yearly lows, or thirteen-month lows to be precise, after BTC/USD fell to $5,765 – a level not witnessed since October 2017. That puts BTC on 9.8% losses over less than twelve hours, after falling from this morning’s $6,395.

Of Bitcoin’s $6 billion volume at time of writing, you have to look eleven places down the charts to find the first cryptocurrency that BTC has been significantly traded against. The top ten most concentrated trades are all against either fiat currency (USD and KRW), or dollar-pegged stablecoins – specifically Tether (USDT).

Ethereum Sinks Along With Mining Profits

As covered earlier on Hacked, Ethereum’s initial fall below the $200 mark resulted in Ether mining no longer being profitable. However, the $189 price quoted in the article continued to fall further, landing on $179.49 and resulting in a 14.4% crash for Ethereum from last night’s high of $209.78.

That’s still slightly above the $170 valuation recorded during the dip of September this year, and saves ETH from notching up a new yearly low along with BTC.

Tron (TRX) Threatens Yearly Lows

The value of TRX fell 16% from $0.022358 to $0.018757 for Wednesday, pushing the coin closer to the lows of August when TRX hit the eery number of $0.016666 before rebounding.

This time the price rebounded to the $0.019 level, which is a hopeful sign for the altcoin, although TRX losses now stand at 22.5% for the last seven days.

All of the coin growth surrounding BitTorrent, record transaction volumes, coin listings and everything else that came out of Tron HQ in recent months has now effectively been wiped out.

Few coins were spared the bloodletting, and even the stablecoins were shaken by the sudden sell-off as Tether dipped to the $0.97 range once again. Despite the numbers quoted above, the worst of the losses came from the lesser altcoins, with recent gainer Basic Attention Token (BAT) now down more than 40% for the week.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 89 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Altcoins

Update: Crypto Selloff Deepens as Bitcoin Hits New Yearly Low

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The cryptocurrency market underwent a massive selloff Wednesday, as bitcoin breached new lows for the year and major altcoins booked double-digit losses across the board. Bitcoin cash experienced the largest percentage drop, effectively erasing gains made in the run-up to Thursday’s hard fork event.

Market Update

Cryptocurrencies have given up a combined $25 billion in value over the last 24 hours, as markets approached new lows for the year. The selloff intensified through the late morning session, driving the crypto market cap to a low of $187 billion. At the time of writing, cryptoassets were worth $188.4 billion collectively, according to CoinMarketCap.

Trade volumes surged 33% to $17.6 billion as investors rushed to liquidate their positions amid the selloff. All major exchanges reported a sharp rise in daily turnover, with volumes on Huobi, Bitfinex and LBank surging 100% or more in the last day.

Bitcoin’s price collapsed more than 10% on Coinbase to reach a session low of $5,530. At the time of writing, BTC/USD was worth $5,675.

Bitcoin cash, the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market cap, relinquished a whopping 18.1% to reach $433. In doing so, it completely reversed all the gains made in the last two weeks.

Ethereum fell 12.1% to $184, XRP lost 11.9% to $0.4576 and Stellar XLM declined 12% to reach $0.2303. With the exception of USDT, a dollar-backed stablecoin, all cryptoassets in the top-20 lost 7% or more on Wednesday.

The following snapshot, courtesy of CoinMarketCap, highlights the extent of the selloff.

Bitcoin Dominance Grows

While bitcoin certainly wasn’t spared from the latest rout, its share of the overall market climbed back above 54% on Wednesday, a sign that remaining capital was consolidating in the largest asset store. Bitcoin’s dominance rate has since fallen back to around 53.1%.

Extended periods of volatility for altcoins and tokens have provided bitcoin with a linchpin of support since the bear market began earlier this year. This has been most recently demonstrated by narrower price ranges and sharp declines in volatility for the leading digital currency. As Hacked recently reported, bitcoin’s volatility index fell this week to its lowest level in over two years.

Although there was no immediate catalyst for the rapid decline in market prices, anxiety over the future of bitcoin cash likely factored into the equation. The protocol’s primary implementation, dubbed bitcoin cash ABC, has won support from major industry players ahead of Thursday’s hard fork. However, recent data show that the network’s hash rate has tipped in favor of bitcoin SV, a competing protocol being pushed by Craig Steven Wright, Calvin Ayre and some very large mining pools. This information may have contributed to a sharp spike in SV futures prices on Wednesday.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 664 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Selloff Accelerates as Bitcoin Brakes Support

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The bearish period continued so far today in the cryptocurrency segment with several majors falling below key short-term support levels. Bitcoin violated the $6275 level, Ethereum fell back below $200, while Ripple is now under the $0.50 price level again. The smaller coins are also under clear selling pressure, and our trend model continues to overwhelmingly negative picture, especially with regards to the long-term time-frame.                

BTC/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin hit its lowest level in a month, dropping below the $6275 support and likely setting up a test of the $6000 level and putting the key long-term support zone near $5850 in danger as well. The total value of the market declined by more than $5 billion due to the selloff, and bulls would need a quick recovery to avoid another leg lower in the bear market following the lengthy consolidation period.

Bitcoin faces strong resistance at $6500, $6750, and $7000 while below $5850 the next major support zone is found between $5000 and $5100. Traders should still stay away from opening new positions, with our trend model still being on a short-term sell signal.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple also followed the broader market lower, and the now it’s clearly below the $0.51 level, with the recent weakness warranting a downgrade to neutral in our trend model concerning the short-term time-frame.

While the long-term outlook is still neutral, given the segment-wide trends, traders and investors should remain cautious with new positions even in the case of a renewed buy signal in the coming period. Support below $0.51 is still found between $0.42 and $0.46, while further resistance is ahead near $0.54 and $0.57.

Litecoin Nears Bear Market Low as Ethereum Tests $200 Again

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum dropped below the key $200 support/resistance level again after last week’s failed rally attempt, and now the coin is once again on sell signals on both time-frames in our trend model. While the second largest coin is well above its bear market low, which is found near $170, but given the strong bearish long-term trend, odds continue to favor a test of that and possibly the $160 support as well.

With that in mind, traders and investors should still stay away from the coin ETH, with strong resistance zones ahead near $235 and $260, and with further support found at $180

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is still among the weakest top coins and it’s getting closer and closer to the bear market low near $47, with a breakdown being very likely in the coming weeks. The $44 price level is the next main support, while in the case of a recovery above $51, the next strong resistance zone is found near $56, with another zone above that at $54.

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS fell below the key $5.35 support/resistance level amid the broad selloff today, and now it’s on a short-term sell signal again, with the long-term trend clearly being negative. Now, a test of the $5 level seems likely in the coming days, and a break below that could set up a move towards the strong support zone near $4.50.

That said, the consolidation period could still continue, and the coin might still avoid a new bear market low, which could point to an ongoing long-term bottoming process.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 394 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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