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U.S. Extends Olive Branch to China, Easing Trade Tensions

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Corporate America and the U.S. government alike have placed China in their sights, giving the markets hope that the tensions created by an otherwise escalating trade war will ease. In fact, a trio of separate developments between the United States and China are unfolding at the moment in a sign of easing regulatory restrictions and trade tariffs that have threatened to stifle China’s exports and suppress corporate America’s growth plans.

Perhaps the most surprising among the developments is President Trump’s decision to rescue telecom play ZTE Corp in the wake of a US ban that hurt the company’s business. Meanwhile, electric car maker Tesla and the No. 1 US bank by assets JPMorgan have similarly set their sights on expansion into China, though each company plans to take a different tack.

ZTE Corp

Even as the U.S. and Chinese governments are tussling over trade, President Trump said in a tweet that he’s working alongside China’s government to help telecom play ZTE to “get back into business, fast,” pointing to jobs lost as the catalyst for the cooperation.

ZTE had been crippled by a decision by the US government banning the sale of components by U.S. businesses to China’s industry. The US Commerce Department last month singled out ZTE, calling on corporate America to refrain from exports to the telecom company, a decision it’s now seemingly looking to undo. The change of heart comes amid thawing relations between the United States and North Korea, the latter of which the phone maker was accused of ignoring US sanctions against.

Tesla Footprint

Meanwhile, the wheels are in motion for Tesla’s shift eastward into Shanghai, according to reports. While many businesses opt to form a partnership with a local entity when gaining a foothold in a new region, Tesla appears to be going it alone in an attempt to keep its internal technology close to the vest. In doing so, the company is willing to inherit a 25% import duty on foreign cars.

The Palo Alto, Calif.-based electric vehicle maker is eyeing Shanghai for its maiden international factory and has reportedly filed the paperwork to set up shop there. Tesla’s Hong Kong subsidiary is named as the only owner of the new business, which quashes the possibility of a local partner surfacing.

Tesla had hoped to unveil its Shanghai expansion sooner, but there were regulatory hurdles blocking the company from operating independently in the region. China’s government in a sign of goodwill removed cumbersome joint-venture standards that have paved the way for Tesla’s expansion.

JPMorgan Partnership

JPMorgan is close to making history as the first U.S. bank to take a majority ownership in a wealth management partnership whose customers are Chinese investors.

JPMorgan’s asset management division is looking to lift its ownership stake in China International Fund Management, a joint venture it entered in the early 2000’s, by 2 percentage points to 51%. The majority position is possible thanks to Beijing’s relaxed rules surrounding international ownership of domestic financial companies.

In a separate development, JPMorgan’s Hong Kong subsidiary is seeking the regulatory green light for control of a joint venture brokerage business in China, following in the footsteps of HSBC. This would reflect the second time around for JPMorgan’s brokerage business in China after the U.S. bank left a local partnership in 2016. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in a statement that the bank intends to “bring the full force of JPMorgan Chase and our resources to the country.”

These advancements seemed to pave the way for gains on Wall Street, with all three of the major US indices trading comfortably in the green.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 70 rated postsGerelyn has been covering ICOs and the cryptocurrency market since mid-2017. She's also reported on fintech more broadly in addition to asset management, having previously specialized in institutional investing. She owns some BTC and ETH.




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GBP Price Prediction: British Pound Jumps on Growing Backing for PM May’s Brexit Deal Ahead of Vote

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  • GBP catches a bid across the board as Prime Minister Theresa May gains ERG support.
  • Despite session gains, GBP/USD technically has vulnerabilities to downside risks, given rising channel formation.

GBP Bulls Awaken

The British pound (GBP) saw a decent jump to the upside on Monday, after an initially very choppy directionless start to the session. The buying swooping into GBP/USD came on the back of a growing number of ministers set to back Prime Minister Theresa May. Specifically, attention was grabbed after closely followed political watcher Robert Peston tweeted that “influential Tory Brexiter MP tells me he and his ERG Brexiter colleagues will be voting with Theresa May and the government all day tomorrow”. This is significant as the ERG is a very influential Brexit research group, which was previously plotting ways to oust PM May.

GBP/USD jumped to its highest level seen since 22nd November. The pair had seen an initial spike of 85 pips to the upside. Gains were capped however by a known strong area of supply; this can be seen tracking from 1.2870 up to 1.2930. The price has not been above here since 15th November 2018, and the bulls having faltered here on several occasions attempting to move above. Should GBP/USD manage to move above this zone, it would be a very strong signal that it is out of the bear market. Technically, this would be largely attractive for inviting further buyers to come in.

A detailed analysis of the upcoming Brexit vote can be viewed here: This Tuesday Will Be Zero Hour For the British Pound

Price Remains Confined Within Channel

GBP/USD daily chart. Price action remains within the confinements of a rising channel.

Another key technical observation is an ascending channel formation, which can be viewed via the daily chart. The GBP/USD pair has been moving within this since 12th December 2018, having gained over 400 pips since it took shape. The daily candle today briefly spiked above the upper tracking trend line of the pattern. However, the price was squeezed back within the confinements of this. Touted profit-taking kicked in towards the close of the European markets. This is not too surprising, as participants maintain an element of caution heading into the high-profile vote.

Given the nature of the above-described formation, should it play out to the textbook, vulnerabilities still point to a breakout south. This move would be heavily assisted should the British Prime Minister lose the meaningful vote on Tuesday. In terms of key levels to note, to the upside, a break above the 1.2930 supply zone will invite large buying pressure. To the downside, a breach of 1.2650, the lower support of the channel, will open flood gates to selling.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 106 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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USD/CAD Price Prediction: North American Pair Down Almost 500 Pips but the Bears are Not Done Yet

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  • Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged and delivered a cautious tone in their rhetoric.
  • Federal Reserve speaker Bostic says rates could go up or down.

Bank of Canada Monetary Decision Review

The Bank of Canada today kept rates unchanged, largely in line with market expectations. In terms of the accompanying rhetoric with the monetary policy decision, it was somewhat cautious. Growth forecasts were seen generally lower across the board. The new expectation for 2019 GDP is now seen at 1.7% versus previous forecast of 2.1%. However, they do see a pick-up in 2020 to 2.1% versus the prior forecast of 1.9%. In terms of inflation, the expectation is for it to be below 2% for much of 2019, due to lower gas prices.

In addition, the bank stated that the drop observed in global oil prices had a material impact on the outlook. It further noted that consumer spending and housing investment was weaker than expected. On the above, the central bank was then vague with a statement, not really providing much clue on time line with regards to future rate moves. The BOC said, “weighing all of these factors, Governing Council continues to judge that the policy interest rate will need to rise over time into a neutral range to achieve the inflation target.”

Dovish Fed Speakers            

Elsewhere, relating to the USD, Fed speaker Bostic hit the newswires, he said rates could move up or down, signaling that the central bank needs to be patient and seek greater clarity on economic risks. On the back of these comments, weakness hit the USD with quite some force across the board. Markets are trying to gauge how much the Fed is now taking steps back, a big shift in their prior stance seen during their initial rate hiking cycle. Later into the session, the Fed’s Rosengren then echoed a similar tone to the initial dovish rhetoric of Bostic. Both of which are following Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week, who suggested of possibilities to adjust the Fed’s balance sheet if need be.

USD/CAD Analysis

USD/CAD daily chart. Room for further pressure to the downside, given dovish Fed and government shutdown.

Despite the cautious tone from the Bank of Canada, the reaction was generally muted. However, as the session progressed, USD/CAD continued to edge south. This was helped not by the BOC, but the above-detailed dovish commentary from a couple of Fed members.

As pointed out in the last USD/CAD write up on Hacked, the bears did smash through that vital ascending trend line. This was significant as it had been providing support since October 2018, comforting the price on each time it met the trend line.

Selling pressure has been intense; over the past six sessions, USD/CAD has dropped almost 500 pips. In terms of cushion, the price has managed to catch some at a daily support level, eyed around 1.3278. Should the daily candlestick hold above this support, then there may be room for a small pullback. Eyes would then be on resistance around the 1.3310 price area.

Ultimately, given the political mess with the government shutdown in the U.S., there may still be room for a squeeze lower. The price could see a full reversal of the uptrend, which start back in October 2018. This would potentially see USD/CAD back down to levels of around 1.2800.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

 

 

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 106 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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GBP/JPY Price Prediction: Pressure on the Pound Likely to Intensify Ahead of Next Week

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  • GBP pressure to the downside could start to pick up pace, heading into the vote on Theresa May’s deal with the EU.
  • GBP/JPY has a chunky amount of room to potentially free-fall, depending on Brexit developments.

Theresa May’s Deal with EU Vote

The British pound (GBP) is heading towards a critical event next week. Members of UK parliament will be voting on Theresa May’s draft withdrawal agreement with the EU. As a reminder, this was originally set for 11th December, however the PM was forced to delay this, as she was facing defeat. Despite this having been postponed the first time round, things remain very much up in the air. There is still a strong potential that she will not gather enough support to see this deal pass.

Prime Minister May only has a week now to try corral required support for her deal. She must gather enough support in order to get it passed through parliament. In terms of the schedule of events, the vote will be preceded by four days of debating within the House of Commons. This will be commencing on Wednesday 9th January.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart. The price is vulnerable to further downside shocks.

Looking at GBP/JPY via the daily time frame, the candlestick for the session today – 8th January – is a bearish signal to say the least. A strong area of demand was initially seen at the range of 140.50-139.50. Most recently the price was consolidating around this region, from 21st to 31st December 2018. This was the case until the hard sellers smashed through. On 2nd January, a breach through the active support occurred, inviting chunky selling activity into play. GBP/JPY was hit once again harder on 3rd January, a continuation of the first breakout, but exacerbated by the mini ‘flash crash’, which was seen across all JPY instruments.

GBP/JPY monthly chart. Eyes on potential retest of huge monthly support area, seen at mini flash crash low print.

Keeping in mind the above, the price did initially retest the breached demand zone and was hit with a rejection. This technically signals further potential downside to come. Given how aggressive GBP/JPY can be generally, with the Brexit pressure further intensifying now, this could be extremely vulnerable. As a result, bear targets are somewhat deep. Firstly, the 136.00 figure, which is the low area of 4th January. Further to the south, eyes would then even be on a fast move back towards the flash crash low print, 130.70. This area is big in terms of monthly support, it came into action back in the months of July, August and September 2016.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 106 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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