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Market Overview

Up in the Air

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Writing to you from the airport again. Looks like my flight was delayed and I’ll have a few hours in the terminal. So the title of today’s update is really where I’d like to be.

For the hundreds of you who responded to yesterday’s update with all of your thoughts and opinions about Nicolas Maduro and the Petro, please refer to the title as well.

Optimism is important in tough situations and this situation is particularly difficult. Will Maduro pocket the $735 Million that he raised in the pre-sale, leaving his people high and dry?

It’s quite possible, perhaps even likely. What I do know is that if used correctly, this open-book technology does have the potential to restore trust and stability to the economy but only if it’s executed correctly.

After much consideration, I personally will not participate in this ICO until see a greater level of transparency. As with most ICOs, the details will likely emerge along the way.

Will be watching closely with hopeful eyes and wishing all the best for the people of Venezuela.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • The Sell Continues
  • Fed Minutes
  • Going for a Dash

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of February 21st. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

The Dow Jones came back from President’s day with a bad attitude and proceeded to fall 1%, erasing the entire “recovery” from Thursday and Friday.

The selling action was led by Walmart, which dropped a howling 10% after a sour earnings report. This was the stock’s worst day in more than 30 years.

Still, as you’ll notice in the chart below the price is still higher now than it was in mid-November.

The funny thing is, just as with the last big drop, there doesn’t seem to be much correlation with other markets.

Gold dropped and failed to provide a safe haven against the falling stocks and the US Dollar continued its bounce off the bottom.

The Bonds are recovering slightly but Volatility is up.

Everything is up in the air.

Powell’s Etch a Sketch

The markets are focused on the FOMC minutes that will be released later today but this could prove to be a non-event.

A lot has changed since their last meeting, most importantly, their leader. I’m not sure why people are concerned with what Janet Yellen may have been thinking when Powell is now in charge.

The change in regime gives the Fed an excellent chance to change their stance and save face.

The financial markets and top economists expect to see them get tough on inflation and it’s difficult to imagine them delivering anything less. Unless of course, we do see a huge sell off in the markets.

Going for a Dash

For short-term cryptotraders, take a look at Dash. Over the last hour, as I’m writing, it looks like it’s going for a breakaway from the pack.

We’ve seen these type of rallies in this market develop quite quickly in the past. Most recently with Litecoin gaining about 50% on Valentines day.

Of course, all cryptocurrencies have an extremely high risk so trying to catch these waves can be tricky and quite dangerous. A wise investor will always do their best to create a diversified portfolio with all the tools at their disposal.

Wishing you an amazing day ahead!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation. The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro. Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose. Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Market Overview

Market Update: U.S. Stocks Steady After Turbulent Week; Bitcoin ABC Leads Hash War

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U.S stocks finished mostly higher in turbulent trading Friday, as the large-cap S&P 500 Index eked out its second consecutive advance on the back of utilities and energy companies. Cryptocurrencies appear to have stabilized following a $37 billion plunge, as the primary implementation of the bitcoin cash hard fork continued to edge out the competing SV protocol.

Stocks Mostly Higher

After a back-and-forth session, two of three U.S. stock benchmarks closed in positive territory Friday. The S&P 500 Index added 0.2% to 2,736.14, with seven of 11 primary sectors recording gains. Strong performances were recorded for utilities, materials, health care and energy companies, with gains in these sectors offsetting a disappointing day for technology and consumer stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 123.20 points, or 0.5%, to close at 25,412.47.

Meanwhile, the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index pared losses to settle down 0.2% at 7,247.87.

Dollar Correction Deepens

After setting fresh yearly highs earlier in the week, the U.S. dollar has declined in three of the past four sessions as the euro and British pound finally got some reprieve.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of peers, got knocked back to one-week lows after falling to 96.40. It would later consolidate at 96.43, having lost 0.5% from the previous close. The index settled at 97.54 on Monday, its highest since June 2017.

Europe’s common currency, the euro, staged an impressive relief rally Friday, gaining 0.7% to 1.1409 U.S. Pound sterling also recouped Brexit-induced losses, reaching a high of 1.2878 U.S.

The greenback also lost ground to the Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss frank and Swedish krona – the other four constituents that round out the DXY basket.

Crypto Markets Stabilize as Hash War Rages On

After a precipitous two-day drop, cryptoassets showed signs of stabilizing Friday as market observers zeroed in on the fallout from bitcoin cash’s contentious hard fork. As CCN reports, bitcoin ABC – the primary implementation for BCH – came out on top in the so-called “hash war.” For all the rhetoric employed by Craig Steven Wright, the primary backer of bitcoin SV, the outcome was never really in question.

According to latest industry figures, bitcoin ABC had mined 32 blocks more than bitcoin SV. Bitmain, one of ABC’s primary backers, boasts a hash rate of 20,000 P, which is equivalent to 20 exahash. Those figures were disclosed on Thursday by Jiang Zhuoer, CEO of the China-based miner BTC.TOP. Meanwhile, Roger Ver announced that the Bitcoin.com mining pool now has more hash rate the entire BCH network before the fork. The combined muscle of Bitcoin.com and Bitmain seems to have overpowered the SV camp.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization found support near $183 billion Friday, recovering some $9 billion from the 13-month low set on Wednesday. Most major assets had gained or lost a few percentage points over the 24-hour cycle.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 665 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Analysis

Pre-Market Analysis And Chartbook: Dollar Dips on Dovish Powell as Brexit Deal Still in Question

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Friday Market Snapshot

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2,711 -0.83%
DAX 30 11,265 -0.78%
WTI Crude Oil 57.59 1.80%
GOLD 1,221 0.66%
Bitcoin 5,555 -0.53%
EUR/USD 1.1380 0.50%

Today is shaping up to be another wild ride in financial markets after the recent volatile sessions, with currencies, bonds, and equities all experiencing heavy trading. The Brexit process, the confusion regarding the US trade tariffs, and the broad bearish technical shift in risk assets are all contributing to the wild moves, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell also increased uncertainty yesterday.

The central banker hinted on possible pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle next year, citing increased economic headwinds following the open attacks form President Trump regarding the “tight” policies of the bank.

As Mario Draghi confirmed the ECB’s quantitative tightening plans as well, the Greenback lost ground compared to most of its peers, even as the main European currencies continue to be under pressure due to the Brexit chaos.

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Euro and the Pound, which are trading near their yearly lows compared to the Dollar, are stuck in a very volatile broad trading range against each other. The EUR/GBP pair topped out just above 0.90 this year, and although since the August high it drifted back to 0.86, the Pound remains weak from a long-term perspective.

A no-deal Brexit could hurt the British currency more and even a push above the decade-long high near 0.93 could be ahead. Short-term, we expect volatility to remain high in the pair, and in forex markets in general, and a move out of the range could happen soon.

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Another possibly important move started in the USD/JPY pair and in gold in recent days, as the broad risk-off shift helped the Yen, with safe-haven flows favoring the currency and the precious metal again.

Following Powell’s dovish words, the pair could be ready to test the 112 level again, especially should the major stock indices continue lower in the coming week. Below 112, the 111.40 and the 110.70 levels provide support, while strong resistance is ahead near 113.70 and 114.50.

Another Selloff in Stocks as Bearish Pressures Mount

Global stock markets are lower today, despite yesterday’s reversal and late-day rally on Wall Street, which was sparked by renewed trade optimism, following rumors on a possible halt of the US tariffs on Chinese goods.

The rumors were quickly denied, but there is more and more evidence that the Trump administration might be changing its aggressive strategy, while China also seems more flexible in light of the economic slowdown and the turmoil in Chinese assets.

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Brexit chaos is also weighing on equities in Europe and across the globe, with British assets clearly being under pressure, despite the rally attempts on the positive headlines regarding the draft withdrawal plan.

For now, the fate of the plans is still highly uncertain, despite the progress made by Theresa May. The hawkish words of Draghi also added to the bearish pressures today, as the Eurozone CPI was in line with expectations.

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The major US indices all opened lower today, despite the continued decline in Treasury yields, with clear weakness in the tech sector and small-caps. Industrial Production missed the consensus estimate in October, with a monthly growth of only 0.1%, and the previous reading was also revised lower.

The key benchmarks are not far above the October lows, the recent rally attempts all failed, so given the bearish global technical picture, conditions in equity markets remain hostile for bulls.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 396 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Market Overview

What You Want

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Hi Everyone,

For anybody who may be considering the position that the current drama in bitcoin cash reflects poorly on the crypto industry, please know that this entire story was in fact predicted by Satoshi Nakamoto more than 8 years ago.

In fact, this bitcoin cash project serves as a prime example of how strong the idea of bitcoin is. Consider this post from Bitcoin’s founder from June 2010.

“If someone was getting ready to fork a second version, I would have to air a lot of disclaimers about the risks of using a minority version. This is a design where the majority version wins if there’s any disagreement, and that can be pretty ugly for the minority version and I’d rather not go into it, and I don’t have to as long as there’s only one version. ”

You see, the technology and the software are less important when it comes to bitcoin. The idea is what carries weight. To have money that is backed by a consensus of the entire network.

The miners vote with their hashpower, wallet providers and exchanges vote with their code, and the market votes with their feet.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Stocks Mixed
  • Pound Pressure
  • Crypto Relaxation

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of November 16th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

Stock markets are struggling to find a direction today. And to be honest, I’m having trouble finding the words to describe them. The Nikkei is down while China 50 is up, and the European markets opened flat following the capitulation and rebound we saw yesterday.

The US Dollar seems to be coming off its November highs, which seems to be good for commodities. Oil is seeing a nice rebound off psychological support of $55.

FX

Over in the currency markets, the action is being completely dominated by the British Pound Sterling as

And boy has she seen some tough moments. This time though somehow seems different. She insists that she will be able to gather support for her current Brexit plan despite the fact that she’s in a situation where it’s virtually impossible to give everyone what they want.

Volatility on the GBPUSD is now the highest its been since the Brexit referendum.

For those of you who like volatility also check out the GBPJPY pair, which is actually fitting in a nice range.

Crypto Relief Rally

As of this writing all the major cryptoassets, with the exception of Bitcoin Cash, are up over the last 24 hours.

It’s good to see things holding up so steadily with everything going on. Beware though. Many analysts are still seeing this downside breakout as an indication that things might go lower, while the long-term players continue to accumulate at these levels. The next move is anybody’s guess.

Let’s have an amazing weekend!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

eToro is a multi-asset platform which offers both investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies, as well as trading CFD assets.

Please note that CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Best regards,
Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

Connect with me on….

eToro: @MatiGreenspan | Twitter: @MatiGreenspan | LinkedIn: MatiGreenspan | Facebook:MatiGreenspan

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 135 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

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