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Uncomfortable Sustain in Markets and Bitcoin

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Hi Everybody,

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After much uncertainty regarding the future of the bitcoin network, it seems we now have more clarity.

After years of debating about the right thing to do for bitcoin, the community has finally taken action and has implemented the SegWit solution. The move has been seen as incredibly positive and has propelled bitcion to new all time highs.

It has now been announced that the much in question SegWit2x “Hard Fork” is scheduled to happen within the next 90 days, or sometime in mid-November.

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The August 1st deadline has passed us quite smoothly but still to come is the network split that will double the size of each block in the blockchain. We hope this goes smoothly as well.

However, some trouble is brewing under the surface. A recent update to the Bitcoin Core software will force any SegWit2X fork to be contentious and create a new blockchain. When Bitcoin Core 0.15.0 is released, it will begin disconnecting all nodes who are signaling for SegWit2x and essentially make them invalid.

At this moment, the mining pools are staying silent. No doubt cowering from this sudden blow to what seemed like a reasonable compromise. Going forward, they need to decide if they want to simply be happy with SegWit, without going for the Fork or create a new blockchain to support SegWit2x.

Of course, if you’re already creating a new blockchain, why not just use the one that was already created and turn to Bitcash. Though the price doesn’t seem to be affected much bitcoin is very likely for some more surprises in the near future.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

Volatility Sustained

Markets Taking a Dip

Inflation Data Tomorrow

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of August 10th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

The volatility that we saw in the stock markets yesterday has indeed continued. The VIX has sustained and closed out yesterday above 11 points.

Not exactly a high number but at least it’s away from the historic lows that it’s been setting these past few weeks. To put things into proportion, here’s a graph of the VIX over the last 2 years. In mid 2016 we can see the Brexit bump and at the start we have the sell-off of August 2015, the last major market correction.

For now, fear is still at a very low level. However, the flight to safety that we noted yesterday is still very much at play.

Gold has reached even further highs clocking in as high as $1280 this morning and the USDJPY is indeed looking weak, indicating Asian concerns have not abated.

The Swiss Franc rally however is retracing for the moment. It’s come a long way in a short time so some type of retracement is not at all surprising.

The U.S. Dollar, which has been dropping since January is indeed getting some support. Most likely her safe haven status is what’s holding her up at this point.

Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen minor resistances but by the chart the trends looks strong.

What’s Next?

We continue to monitor the news for any updates about North Korea. Many investors still put a nuclear war at a very low probability. Of course, even a low probability of something that terrible has a way of sparking fear. If there are no further updates in the near future, we can expect this to blow over… at least until the next time.

This is far from resolved and for now there doesn’t seem to be any clear path to a resolution.

On the data front, we have some PPI data that could be key later today but the big release that everyone is waiting for is the inflation data tomorrow, which we’ll of course cover tomorrow.

Very sorry for the delay in the updates yesterday and today. I’ve been travelling a lot lately. Tomorrow’s may be a bit late as well. We should be back on schedule by next week. It’s really nice to see all the Emails and messages coming in once we pass the 15 minute mark. Very glad to see that you guys are eager to read the updates.

Have an awesome day ahead!!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Featured image from Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. P. H. Madore

    August 10, 2017 at 4:03 pm

    We might note that the recent spike in BTC may have a lot to do with the self-same Bitcoiners cashing out their Bcash and buying more BTC.

  2. Mati Greenspan

    August 11, 2017 at 3:31 pm

    Good Point. I believe we mentioned this in the previous day’s update. 🙂

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Altcoins

NEO Shows Poise While Other Cryptocurrencies Struggle

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NEO has quietly emerged as one of 2018’s best performing cryptocurrencies, defying multiple market selloffs en route to new highs. The so-called Ethereum of China has also carved out a name for itself in the fast-growing ICO market, where it is now among a small handful of blockchains enabling startups to raise capital through the popular crowdfunding model.

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New Record Highs

NEO was the only major cryptocurrency to spike this weekend, even as bitcoin and Ethereum suffered declines. The coin pushed higher on Monday, hitting a new record of $205.46. It would later consolidate around $190 for a gain of 17%.

The latest rally gives NEO a market cap of $11.8 billion, putting it eighth among active cryptocurrencies. Trade volumes over the last 24 hours reached $1.5 billion with 65 million tokens in circulation. The majority of the turnover occurred on just two exchanges: Upbit and Binance.

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With the gain, NEO’s value has appreciated around 120% year-to-date. That’s nearly double the price growth of Ethereum, a comparable platform that recently took back the second seed on the crypto market cap leader board.

Ethereum of China

NEO’s trajectory over the last six months has mirrored Ethereum’s both in terms of value and project development. Its success is partly owed to ether, as both cryptocurrencies are based on smart contracts. NEO differs from Ethereum on several fronts, including the execution of C# code, which makes it more attractive for developers.

Beyond the hype, NEO provides developers with the toolbox to advance the smart economy by digitizing assets and automating the management of those assets through smart contracts. It is perhaps the only cryptocurrency that can succeed in a heavily regulated China, which only recently tightened the noose on cryptocurrency miners as part of its broad offensive against digital assets.

With the exception of Stellar Lumens, NEO is perhaps the only cryptocurrency not named Ethereum that is making inroads into the ICO market. Dozens of token raises have launched on the NEO platform, including 27 in the span of two days. Although China has banned ICOs, there’s a possibility that regulators may one day introduce a centralized model that will allow the government to oversee the entire process.

According to at least one metric, ICOs raised more than $6 billion last year, with December being the most successful month yet with more than $1.6 billion raised.

While this is merely speculation at this point, the Chinese ban on cryptocurrency was initiated just before the 19th National Congress of the National Party. The event, held every five years, is usually a showdown between communists die-hards who want to maintain the old system of central planning and those who are seeking more liberal reforms.

Regardless of China’s regulatory future, NEO appears poised to capitalize on any opportunity involving public blockchain. The company certainly has that ambition, and has shown no issue following national guidelines.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Altcoins

Ripple Crashes to 2018 Lows Amid Lingering Doubts Over South Korean Regulation

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Ripple took the plunge on Monday, falling to its lowest level in nearly three weeks as investors continued to ponder South Korea’s regulatory shakeup of the cryptocurrency market.

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XRP/USD Price Levels

Ripple’s native XRP token touched a session low of $1.47 on Monday, which represented a decline of more than 16%. The coin’s price was last seen hovering at $1.58 for a loss of 10%.

XRP briefly traded at its lowest level since Dec. 29. The token is currently testing the Jan. 11 low of around $1.57.

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At present values, Ripple is capitalized at $62 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. That’s roughly half of Ethereum, the world’s no. 2 digital currency system. Ripple had briefly claimed the second spot in the crypto charts before a brisk selloff knocked it from record highs.

Ripple ran into volatility last week after CoinMarketCap removed several South Korean exchanges from its listing due to “extreme divergences in prices from the rest of the world.” The action prompted a multi-billion-dollar selloff of XRP, which is traded heavily on the Korean peninsula.

Why is Ripple Plunging?

It has been a roller coaster two months for Ripple. The cryptocurrency has managed to distance itself from other altcoins thanks to growing institutional support from major banks, credit cards and clearing houses. News of major partnerships sent XRP north of $3.30 after New Year’s day. The gains were quickly followed by profit-taking that was followed by a sharp correction in the cryptocurrency market.

The latest drop is largely attributed to fears over pending South Korean regulations governing cryptocurrency. Hacked reported earlier that central authorities were looking to shut down anonymous trading on domestic exchanges, not ban cryptocurrencies entirely.

The initial shockwave was triggered by Justice Minister Park Sang-ki, who announced Thursday that his department was proposing a bill to regulate the crypto market. The Korean government later said it was considering a response to what it believes to be excessive speculation, but had not reached a decision.

Like other cryptocurrencies, Ripple’s record-breaking gains have been largely driven by South Korean trade desks. Of the nearly $2 billion in XRP tokens transacted Monday, roughly 55% were traded using the won, according to CoinMarketCap. Bithumb continues to be the biggest platform for XRP trades, followed by Upbit and HitBTC. Bithumb and Upbit are both based in South Korea.

It hasn’t been entirely negative for Ripple. The company recently announced a partnership with MoneyGram that will provide the remittance firm with instant liquidity. The partnership appears to be a pilot program, with MoneyGram testing XRP payment flows via xRapid, the cryptocurrency’s blockchain solution for real-time liquidity.

XRP has the ability to settle transactions within seconds, thereby enabling faster cross-border flows. Its potential is currently being explored across Asia’s financial district, giving XRP the unofficial distinction of being the banker’s cryptocurrency.

Ripple’s fundamentals as a transaction agent suggest it still has room to grow in a highly diverse cryptocurrency market. There’s also speculation that U.S.-based exchange Coinbase is considering XRP for its platform. The exchange only supports four cryptocurrencies at the moment, including bitcoin, Ethereum, bitcoin cash and Litecoin.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Cryptocurrencies Start Week on a Quiet Note as NEO Shines

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The broad Bitcoin-led correction continued to dominate trading in the crypto-segment throughout the weekend, as the most valuable coin drifted sideways above the key technical level at $13,000, with dwindling trading volumes.

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BTC remains in a declining short-term pattern, although the digital currency still holds well above the mini-crash lows from December, spending almost a month now in the daily range of the year-end plunge. We still expect the largest coin to complete the current cycle with a move below the crash lows and the $10,000 level after the stellar rally of the previous months. Key support is still found near $13,000, with further levels at $11,300, $10,000, $9000, and stronger levels at $8200 and $7700

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Altcoins also settled down across the boards with only a few coins registering strong activity. Ethereum and NEO have been among the coins making headlines, as the second largest coin continued to grind, higher still trading near its recent all-time high today. The price of the ETH token is moving in a short-term uptrend, in the face of the stretched momentum indicators, but we expect a meaningful correction soon, and long-term investors should wait for a more favorable technical setup before entering new positions, with key support levels at $1000, $850, $740, $625, and near $575.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple remained under heavy selling pressure in the meanwhile, as the oversold bounce of the weekend faded away and the coin got close last week’s lows again. As the short-term downtrend is intact, traders should stay away from entering new positions, while investors should wait for short-term sell-offs towards the main support levels at $1.50, $1.25, and $0.85 to add to their holdings.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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